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Soupy 18 holes this morning. Any chance we clear out before initiation?

With 91L kaput we will likely reach the historical peak of hurricane season (9/10-9/11) with no named storm in the Atlantic Basin. ACE season to date is now below normal. We're at 39 and normal is 47. Erin is responsible for 32 of those 39 ACE points. We're wasting peak season at this point so we're going to have some catching up to do if we want to get to normal which is 122. It still can be done though so we'll have to see what mid September into October can pull off. MJO forecast to go into more favorable phases by then but we've been playing a bit of kick the can on that so remains to be seen. Gut tells me watch out for something to lift out of the Caribbean toward the Gulf coast before all is said and done. I think if there is going to be a Major hit on the U.S. coastline this season it will be the gulf coast. Chances of an east major hit this season are low and decreasing for several reasons. Not expecting anything to get named over the next 5-7 days.

Oh so close to the first 30s low of the season. 40.5 degrees.

October will have some sultry days/nights.

womp womp

Said this yesterday. The plug has been pulled.

We haven’t turned ours on yet, the house has been staying around 65-67 with the windows closed and lows in the mid 40s down here. Natural gas fireplace has been flipped on though.

39 here this morning again.

ECM is now incapable of seeing below normal temps. It blowtorches everything >30 days out by default now. Garbage warm biased model

We moved to Fort Kent on Jan 1, 1976 and moved back south (Gardiner) on Oct 25, 1985, so I missed the big Novie dump, though we waded thru it a week later on Public Land (Scraggly Lake) just NE from Baxter Park. The day we moved to FK was relatively mild, low 20s. Then Jan 9-13 had minima -33/-36/-24/-41/-37. 1976 was probably the most weather-eventful year of my lifetime, though the 12 months March 1960-Feb 1961 was close.

What’s up with all the radar returns going on right now? I know birds and other animals can cause reflections but I’ve never seen widespread yellow reflections from that.

Mother Nature "F.U. and your garage sale preparations." What happened to this forecast? "Today Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. South wind 10 to 14 mph."

It still got the pattern wrong, though...which is why it was too warm. I wouldn't consider it a win for those that forecasted a big winter for the mid atlantic during the 2015-2016 season, despite the fact that snowfall worked out. I'm not arguing your point about storm track, but the EURO seasonal was still a tremendously flawed forecast. I am willing to bet if we had less of a neg NAO last season, the northeast would have done better via more overrunning and SWFE snowfall, kind of like what we saw in February. I understand your point about increased reliance on Benchmark tracks in the NE, but some of that is due to SE Canada being warmer relative to other areas independent of CC. We saw that shift some last year and if se Canada is appreciably cold again, which I suspect that it will be, I would bet on more snowfall.

Wow this is winter levels of falling off a cliff…

The 12z NAM just jacked up totals. Now a stripe of 2” through CNE to SE NH

Great day to go for a drive even if the storms aren't particularly good.

Just get TBlizz to start b*tching and you’ll get drenched.

Regarding this afternoon I95 corridor: Not knowing when football games start etc... but be prepared for delays. Regarding Philly... your call as always. I would not risk outdoor celebration if it was me, except maybe the initial ceremony. NO guarantees as to what will happen but here is info from SPC and late arriving HRRR. Watch for convection NYC area developing 1230-2P, then the big squall line forming 2PM e PA and marching e from there. See graphics... cherry picked indeed but stuff I use to make decisions. I may still get a NOW thread going at 130PM. I do think there are going to be travel delays due to ponding on roads and 1-2.5" in spots by 8PM. PWAT pretty high... near 1.8". Graphics imply be alert... there will be variations. Consider downside risk outside your personal interest and thinking of impact on surroundings. Last night SPC HREF hourly for 5P. The SPC outlook prob for thunderstorms 4-8P (70% I95 corridor 13z HRRR gust graphic 5P (55 MPH se PA) 13z HRRR 5P reflectivity (might be too slow) 12z NAM 5P.

Hey, don't mean to "interrupt," but I just moved to Northampton, Mass. from Brattleboro, Vermont. I am from Boston proper, the city, not the burbs, although I went to Newton North High School. We have some weather coming here: Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 419 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 ...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON... A cold front brings potential for scattered severe thunderstorms today to interior southern New England. Thunderstorms may begin to pop-up across eastern New York, along the border with Connecticut and Massachusetts early as 12-2pm. There after is prime time for storms to build develop,between 2-6pm, across the interior of southern New England. Expect thunderstorms to weaken as the line shifts to the I-95 corridor between 7-10pm. Thunderstorms will have the potential to produce straight-line damaging winds, hail, localized flash flooding in urban areas or locations of poor drainage, frequent lightning, and a lower risk of tornadoes. Whether you are heading to an outdoor event or hanging around the house, today is one of those days to remain weather aware, and have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts (cell phone notifications, NOAA Weather Radio, and broadcast meteorologists). $$ Dooley

Did NOT get the pattern right, though.....suprised someone as meticulous as you would omit that.

Sun breaking out here.

There is going to be a screwgie zone somewhere between me and Tblizz. well modeled but placement tbd, as I'm sure it will be somewhat scattershot on Sunday. Stein will do his best . better chance of avoiding it further down cape

Since you mentioned MJO, you made me look! Lol Looks like all modeling has recently (day?) shifted back away from 4-5-6. https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

Yes, this is what I have always said about climate models...they are biased towards stock ENSO.

my concern focuses on the rutgers game which has a 330 kickoff.....looking like its probably rain free until at least 6 according to the hrrr, the nam looks spotty with an earlier start