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  2. Chrisrotary12
    As expected. Never had a chance here. Probably didn’t even rain. Doubt we get anything today. Stein is here. Can put lawn mower away.
  3. dailylurker
    I can't believe a couple showers actually made it into the dried up lowlands during the night. It looks like it didn't amount to much but it's something.
  4. Today
  5. WxWatcher007
    The signal looks real with a CAG looking to develop and the EPAC starting to light up, but the AI ensembles not being as robust still gives me pause. Either way, another interesting aspect here is the models all showing the potential for tropical moisture to get carried into at least the southeastern U.S. as a ridge flexes in the western Atlantic and a trough tries to sweep eastward from the central U.S., creating a near ideal conveyor belt for moisture transport. That’s something to watch in its own right, and why I’m a little skeptical of the euro operational burying whatever seedling there is in the Bay of Campeche.
  6. GaWx
    It sometimes updates later but, yes, it often does update in the middle of the night our time. The 24 hour period that each daily is based on evidently ends at about the average middays of Darwin and Tahiti.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^It updates at 2am?
  8. GaWx
    It turns out that the models were right on as today’s Darwin SLP is 1017.70, the earliest that high so early in the season and the 6th highest on record: 7 Jun 2026 1014.05 1017.70 -34.73 Darwin will be lower tomorrow. Based on history, that 1017.7 could easily end up the highest daily Darwin SLP of 2026. But there’s no telling for sure as an SLP that high remains possible through September.
  9. GaWx
    Thanks. If a Gulf TC were to materialize in mid June, then JB will get a big win on a call he made way back in late April as I recall based on projecting MJO phase 8 in early or mid June though he had been leaning more toward a week earlier as he even admitted.
  10. GaWx
    Thanks, Chuck. Consistent with that, 2025 has by a large margin the strongest +AO for the period I was analyzing, May 23rd-June 4th from 1958 through 2026. That period in 2025 was chilly (~1.5C BN) though not nearly as cold as the ~-3.5C of 2026. By the way, 2026 had the 4th strongest +AO of this period back to 1958 thus intuitively helping it be one of the coldest. 2023 had the 10th strongest +AO and was ~1C BN. 1994 had the 2nd strongest +AO but it was only ~0.5C BN. 1996 had the 3rd strongest +AO, but it was NN rather than cold. So, the correlation of +AO to cold N of 80B is far from perfect due to other factors coming into play as you very likely realize even though there’s still a decent partial correlation.
  11. Weather Will
    Another nice shower moving through....
  12. WxWatcher007
    Still a strong difference between the legacy ensembles—which have a growing signal for Gulf development—and the AI ensembles which have a weak signal at best.
  13. mreaves
    We landed at BTV around 11:30 in an absolute deluge. Doesn’t seem to have rained as much down here.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    I had a nice rainstorm, but no lightning and thunder so technically speaking I still haven't had 1st thunderstorm of the year, despite 4 high risk days (SPC). This one was severe thunderstorm warned, don't know why. The sky was dark but that's about it.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since the Aurora borealis in May 2024 associated with Solar Max, this big +AO pattern has been happening at the beginning of the warm season for the last 3 years.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Massive round of -SOI.. 30-day below -18, which 23-24 never did. 15-16 peaked at -22. 97-98 is the next higher up (although there was 1-month strong dip in Feb 2005). 6 Jun 2026 1013.94 1016.55 -27.42 -18.06 -9.05 5 Jun 2026 1012.20 1015.15 -29.81 -17.33 -8.44 4 Jun 2026 1010.52 1014.25 -35.29 -16.43 -7.77 3 Jun 2026 1010.14 1013.80 -34.80 -15.47 -7.10 2 Jun 2026 1012.48 1015.05 -27.13 -14.79 -6.56 What we have been calling -PDO may have actually been more of a -ENSO decadal state. 82-83 is the real one to beat, that had a streak of 3/4 months <-30 SOI.
  17. WxWatcher007
    True but the ensembles have a strong signal for some sort of genesis inside of ten days. AI less so.
  18. Rjay
    Wish I could show @Roger Smiththis.
  19. weathermedic
    .12 at my station in Sheepshead Bay. Lots of trees and wires down In northern Queens as per the fire radio earlier this evening
  20. Torch Tiger
    Phalanx/dong headed in
  21. Torch Tiger
    Lightning and maybe 30 mph gust
  22. MGorse
    Strong gust front blew through earlier followed by a whopping 0.08 inches of rain.
  23. hawkeye_wx
    I hate when models back off as an event approaches. First, it was Friday (yesterday) that totally crapped out for this area. Now, the widespread 1-2" Sunday and Monday has been reduced to scattered showers, with more isolated heavy downpours. Some spots may get an inch, but others may get very little. Most of the rain on Monday has been shifted east.
  24. H2Otown_WX
    Almost hit a tree branch on 684 on my way to KEWR.
  25. mitchnick
    The thought that you would question the great JB's claim of a weather record setter is shocking, just shocking.
  26. CoastalWx
    There’s a natural feature that fires up storms in eastern New York due to terrain issues late afternoon. By the time they get to us, it’s into the evening and it cools as well. There’s definitely certain set ups that can favor some areas over others. But as far as tonight goes the storms in Southern Rhose Island, that are pretty potent. Carly, the marine issue is not a deal there.
  27. GaWx
    A freaky record breaking cold period for N of 80N just occurred May 23rd-June 4th per the image below (records back to 1958). I saw it mentioned by Bastardi but wanted to confirm it, myself. So, I went through the graphs for every year to confirm this and it turns out he’s right with that period averaging ~-6C, which is ~3.5C BN:
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