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Cmc likes the 18th

I don’t think it’s been that great unless you enjoy moisture starved northern stream systems that mostly leave us with wind and clouds. I’d like to see a more established, deeper, and wester east coast trough. The drought conditions resulting from such a detached, inconsistent southern stream is getting legit.

I can tell you...I'm starting to switch, at just about precisely the same timing of the mid January dildoing last year....starting to look forward to milder times and baseball. It's just so draining that my patience is wearing thinner as the snow-drought grows longer, and I'm getting older. I may be planning my exit next year if December doesn't produce.

If the forecast holds the warm up would have lasted 9 days. The 6th through the 14th.

Snooze fest through mid next week on the gfs

Again, you are making yourself look foolish. Nobody cares at all. Take it off line. The way you challenge comes across as disrespectful. I respect Don immensely, as does everyone else on here. Again, take it to DM and move forward. Nobody, and i mean nobody, cares about the equations he uses in his posts. You just come across as a pompous prick. Your aggressive and disrespectful posts will drive one of our best posters away from the board.

Looping the last 4-5 runs of the gfs is objectively hilarious. It moved from a hit to so far out to sea it’s not even in the frame anymore.

Anytime we have cold modeled in our prime part of winter it provides opportunities to look for something. It's still possible (although admittedly fading) the midweek system could surprise. Same with the one for the weekend. If we whiff on both of those, we will just have to see what kind of ridging rolls through and can we find another 1-2 week period in late Jan/early Feb where we start the hunt again?

For the moment anyway ... it seems the models are after option B

At a minimum, maybe we'll get a nice dry launching pad for April infernos, before the green-up happens.

A really fascinating ULL evolution. Energy diving over the plains, stalls out and stretches, lobe breaks off and dives south. Not something you see too often. The fast flow and dominant Northern stream limits the ceiling on this event, but if everything goes just right it's a good set up for the best kind of storm: cold temps, heavy snow

The issue of the 12z GFS for the cape storm is not the southern vort - which pulls its weight and tries to develop - but instead the northern vort lobe which ruins any chance of it amplifying.

Gotta keep it that way

Ur a huge believer in what the models saying 11-15 days out?? Lol those models won't even look like that in 2 weeks lmaooo

Man that GFS run….. if we take a tick or two further southwest and it would’ve been an absolute weenie run. It looked similar to last night’s Ukie.

If he says something incorrect and continues to insist that he is correct, I will challenge it right here. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe he's wrong. Either way, anybody reading can learn. If I had no respect for him, I would ignore it. People need to know what's true and what's not.

couple nooners showing NS energy diving down into trough on Friday, and might be something to watch in future runs.

Somewhat surprisingly, the models keep pushing the main band closer to MBY. Getting interesting now.

Pretty much.

GFS won't get it done for the 18th either. Long range looks cold and active though.

GFS pops a low and light wintry precip for Sunday into Monday. We get neutral tilt on the Alabama/Georgia line this run. Very very different look in a good way for 12z.

Gfs says no

GFS even more disjointed for the 16th. Brings moderate snow inland, some rain showers over here. What a turn of events. What a massive cave

I fully respect the synoptics and realize that they drive the surface, but IMO one of the big flags for this upcoming "fail" was the lack of snow on the ens means. Could be a blind squirrel finding a nut but even as we saw positive h5 shifts they stayed stubbornly uninterested. AIs never liked it either. Seeing the AI guidance and the snow means responding to this period adds to my interest.

Tries to turn but just doesn’t get there enough this run. Maybe can keep trending who knows. Throws little bit over the se this run.