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Upper 30's-40's across NE MN this morning. Starting to feel like Fall.

Thank you canderson I appreciate that so much. I’ll be here from time to time and more hopefully over the winter. I consider all of you as friends that are special to me.

I think we need to be careful here because the heat sink-oceans are changing the way we need to view the hemisphere when doing seasonal outlooks....there are some illusions taking place with regard to how 2023 appeared to mimic a Modoki configuration at the surface and was actually a La Nino-hybird, as this year maybe ostensibly an east-based deal acting more basin-wide as by product of all of that warmth tugging everything westward relative to expectation.

I don't hate that map

Congrats abq and houston

What is also interesting is that the EURO has trended stronger with the Canadian ridge centered near the east shore of HB, as the it adjusts to the unprecedented magnitude of El Nino, but the position of that Aleutian low remains dead-nuts on that of the August run. IOW, it hasn't trended into any more of an east-based configuration. This isn't what I would expect to see if you are looking for a season 6-month long fall.

have the beautiful weather dialed in, office normies loving it personally getting a little bored but i'll take it knowing a uk style winter is around the corner

Records: Highs: EWR: 98 (1983) NYC: 97 (1983) LGA: 95 (1983) JFK: 98 (1983) Lows: EWR: 44 (1938) NYC: 43 (1883) LGA: 50 (1978) JFK: 50 (1978) Historical: 1811: South Carolina was hit by a hurricane. The main highlight associated with the hurricane was a tornado that damaged downtown Charleston. 1900: South Dakota registered its maximum 24 hour precipitation record as 8.01 inches of rain fell at Elk Point, SD. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1910: Duluth had the shortest growing season ever with frost free days from June 14 to September 10 (87days.) Normally the frost-free season is 143 days. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1917: Duluth, MN saw its earliest freezing temperature reading with a record low of 31°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1919 - A hurricane struck the Florida Keys drowning more than 500 persons. (David Ludlum) 1944: Navy and Army Air Force B-24 Liberator planes flew into the "Great Atlantic Hurricane" from September 10th through the 15th. These were the first sanctioned military flights to obtain data on a hurricane. The data sent back was instrumental in helping hold the death toll from the destructive hurricane to 27 people. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1947: Downpour across the Iron Range - Hibbing, MN got 8.6 inches in three hours. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1960 - Hurricane Donna struck the Florida Keys, with winds gusting to 180 mph and a thirteen foot storm surge. The hurricane then moved north along the eastern coast of Florida and inundated Naples before moving out to sea. Hurricane Donna claimed fifty lives, injured 1800 others, and caused more than 300 million dollars damage. The Marathon/Tavernier area was almost completely destroyed, and in the Citrus Belt, most of the avacado crop was blown from the trees. Hurricane Donna wreaked havoc from Florida to Maine, with wind gusts to 100 mph along much of the coast. Hurricane Donna produced wind gusts to 121 mph at Charleston SC on the 11th, and wind gusts to 138 mph at Blue Hill Observatory MA on the 12th. The hurricane finally died over Maine two days later, producing more than five inches of rain over the state. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1960: The center of Hurricane Donna passed over the middle of the Florida Keys between 2, and 3 am on this day. Donna was a Category 5 hurricane over the Atlantic and a Category 4 at landfall. This storm caused the deaths of over 100 in Puerto Rico, 50 in the United States, and 63 in a jet crash. The plane crash occurred on August 29th as a French airliner was attempting to land at Dakar, Senegal during a “blinding rainstorm.” The storm was likely a tropical disturbance at the time of the crash. 1961: On September 10th, the Television Infrared Observation Satellite observed an area of thunderstorms west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, suggesting a possible tropical cyclone. This storm is the first large tropical cyclone to be discovered on satellite imagery and would eventually become Hurricane Esther. 1965: After ravaging the Florida Keys on the 8th, Hurricane Betsy slammed in Louisiana with sustained winds of 125 to 130 mph and a minimum central pressure near 948 millibars or 28.00 inches of mercury. Houma, LA reported a wind gust of 130 mph. There were as many as 76 deaths and thousands injured. The storm surge and flooding from torrential rains caused an enormous amount of damage making this the greatest insured property loss in the U.S. up to this time. Betsy is known as first billion dollar hurricane with damage exceeding $1.4 billion dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1969: Birmingham, AL dipped to 49°; their earliest recorded temperature under 50°. Other record low temperatures included: Atlanta, GA: 49°, Tupelo, MS: 50°, Chattanooga, TN: 50°-Tied, Montgomery, AL: 52°, Meridian, MS: 52°-Tied, Macon, GA: 52°-Tied and Tallahassee, FL: 54°. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1972: The Council Bluffs, Iowa area received wind damage and Shelby and Audobon Counties experienced a tornado. Rainfall totals in the three days from this date through the 12th were very impressive. Harlon, Iowa received 21 inches with 12.49 inches occurring on one day. Hundreds of families were left homeless from the flooding and losses of crops and buildings totaled nearly $20 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1976: Tropical Storm Kathleen moved northward from the Baja into the desert region of southern California; officially weakening to a depression just before crossing into the U.S. Yuma, AZ reported sustained winds of 57 mph, the highest on record associated with an eastern Pacific tropical cyclone in the southwestern U.S. A wall of water left a 700 foot wide, 40 feet deep gap at the Myer Creek Bridge on I-8 in Ocotillo, CA. The 4 to 6 foot high wall of water destroyed 70% of the homes. Daggett, CA received 2.28 inches of rain which was the greatest one day amount in recorded history. Overall, five people died and damage was estimated at $333 million dollars. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1985: Late season heat wave ends in DC with seven straight 90° days. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1987 - A late afternoon thunderstorm roared through Austin TX producing wind gusts to 81 mph, and 2.17 inches of rain in just sixty minutes. The high winds toppled six National Guard helicopters at the Robert Mueller Municipal Airport, and damaged or destroyed numerous other aircraft. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Cool air sweeping into the north central U.S. brought snow to some of the higher elevations of Montana. The town of Kings Hill, southeast of Great Falls, was blanketed with six inches of snow. Tropical Storm Gilbert strenghtened to a hurricane over the eastern Carribean. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Light snow fell in Montana overnight, with three inches reported at Fairfield. Billings MT reported a record low of 33 degrees. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the northeastern U.S., with record highs of 86 degrees at Caribou ME and 90 degrees at Burlington VT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1998: Tropical Storm Frances made landfall near Matagorda Bay, TX, causing the worst coastal flooding and beach erosion since Hurricane Carla in 1961. The storm's heavy rains ended a drought in East Texas but caused severe river flooding in parts of Texas and Louisiana. The highest rainfall total noted was 21.10 inches at Terrytown in southeast Louisiana. A major disaster declaration was issued for Cameron, Jefferson, Lafourche, and Terrebonne parishes in Louisiana. 1999: Straight line winds caused extensive damage at the Ardmore Industrial Park in Carter County, two miles northeast of Gene Autry, OK where a gust of 102 mph was measured. One aircraft hangar was completely destroyed and several were damaged. Several aircraft were overturned and three were destroyed. Damage was estimated at $2 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2008: Hurricane Ike emerged in the south-central Gulf of Mexico heading for the Texas coast with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and a minimum central pressure of 27.91 inches of mercury. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2009: Honolulu, Hawaii: Honolulu reports a record-tying high temperature of 92°F. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2017: Hurricane Irma crossed the Florida Keys as a Category 4 storm. 2018: Hurricane Florence was a powerful and long-lived Cape Verde hurricane, as well as the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the Carolinas and the ninth-wettest tropical cyclone to affect the contiguous United States. The sixth named storm, third hurricane, and the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Florence originated from a strong tropical wave that emerged off the west coast of Africa on August 30, 2018. Steady organization resulted in the formation of a tropical depression on the next day near Cape Verde. Progressing along a steady west-northwest trajectory, the system acquired tropical storm strength on September 1, and fluctuated in strength for several days over open ocean. An unexpected bout of rapid intensification ensued on September 4– 5, culminating with Florence becoming a Category 4 major hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale with estimated maximum sustained winds of 130 mph

72 / 69 clouds and scattered showers moving through the area. Warm more humid mid 80s to upper 80s and some stray 90 in spots. The period 9/10 - 9/17 overall warmer than normal warmest days today and the 16th-18th. Looking near normal beyond there.

That is an east-based El Nino with a basin-wide expression across the hemisphere on the EURO...no doubt. I think those expecting a season completely devoid of winter weather on the east coast are going to be in for a surprise if that model is correct.

They should if they are incorporating real-time data.

That is an east-based El Nino with a basin-wide expression across the hemisphere on the EURO...no doubt. I think those expecting a season completely devoid of winter weather on the east coast are going to be in for a surprise if that model is correct.

Same charts show increases in Nino 3 and Nino 1.2 and decreases in Nino 4 compared to the early August forecasts.

Cool, crisp upper 40's this morning with upper 60's this afternoon under sunny skies. A fairly average day for mid-sept. Trees are really beginning to turn quickly.

Low of 71 with no rain, despite some light radar returns earlier. Looks like some up and down muggies over the next week or so. Onward.

New Copernicus Nino probabilities just came out today. Theres been little change in median prediction for relative Nino 3.4 month over month.

@Typhoon Tipand I were speculating about this as a potential "unicorn" scenario...

Rain a shutout for Sept. so far. Less than 0.1 inches.

I know ... and it smacks like a bit of a synergistic feedback/resonance connect(able) to the ID CGT correlating to ridging there. That area "wants to ridge"as the basal westerlies goes up and over the western continental terrain expanse. As the westerlies incur and then have to rise up and over the western continental topography; then, the Coriolis necessarily applies... bends to the N... The flow then flattens down as it exits the continent/E. This circumstance is perpetual so long as the long forces the westerlies up and over. Such that before applying any other factor/consideration... there's a tendency. But then superimposing... there is constructive feedback suggested by the negative mode of ID CGT - a correlation that is sending a complementary signal. This isn't the first year I've noticed heat/hot patternization being stolen back west at a continental scale - even premature of forecast timing/expectation. The harmonic feedback causes a bit of an exaggerated bias over the climatology base described by the terrain argument. It began some 15 (or so) years ago, and well... it turns out that's about when the IA CGT began to observably preference an ~ 1/4 retrograde position with respect to canonical spatial-climate orientation ( Rossby waves). This longer term bias is exposed through the inter-decadal version of that teleconnector ( ID CGT). Kind of like the 22 years vs the 11 year solar cycles ( analogy...) The ID CGT is a newer version of the global spatial scaled circum-global teleconnector ... particularly notable in summers. I frankly see/sense something like this as being useful in winter, though. I suggest it is related to why SE Canada/NE and the Maritime of Canada have been biasing negative temp results, relative to the whole (in other words, these regions may be warm but lag in averages comparatively ), regardless of season. Not all months.. ~ 2/3 since 2000. I strongly believe whatever global forcing is responsible for moving the ID CGT is also causing height biases W on top of the 'terrain bulge'. Then the wave mechanics/mass balancing causes a downstream eastern continental behavior to calve backwards (NW) which shears heat from getting to Boston/limits duration. Thing is, we're still going to be 82.9 on day when climo is 82.1 ... so we're technically above normal. But the counter to this, in the W and SW ... seems to be an exponential gain.

No, it may be above normal, but it won’t be a “torch”.

The GOA low doesn't hug the coast as much as I would expect with an El Nino that east-based.....I wonder if the residual cool ENSO/MC residue is helping us a bit on the EURO. Consider how the forcing got tugged into the MC in 2023, even though the it appeared as though it should be in the Modoki region on the VP composite....almost looks like here, it's acting more like a basin-wide event even though it looks textbook east-based. Maybe the benefit of an unprecedented push eastward to get that warm pool displaced a bit. Still def. -PDO tendencies with the warmth east of Japan, etc...

True El ninos are better the further south you go . I wouldnt be shocked if they do well especially if blocking develops.

.17 rain overnight.