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Happy to see Keenum play like he’s playing, what a night he’s having.

That's major problem these days. No accountability. Whether it be legacy media or social media, it always about what's *going to* happen w/ endless speculation, conjecture, and hedging that is over-the-top. Fcst does not work out as planned or not at all?, memory hole it and just move on to the next event or distract w/ other content. It is business model that is more self-serving than doing a service.

Good lord. Its finally leaving us. I hated this event. On the ground, there was nothing interesting. Just 4 days of rain. Another ruined weekend. And what's the best I can say about it? Looked nifty on satellite? Was well forecast? Even these rain totals aren't that remarkable for this long a duration event.

Eagles aren't what they have been the last several years. Almost lost to both the commanders and Titans and now are getting run out of Soldier field tonight.

Playing devils advocate, wouldn’t the current environment of hyping up weather events lead to increased “hits” in forecasting high-end wx events? It is incredibly hard for an event to “sneak up” on society these days.

Overall, things worked out exactly as forecast. What was atypical is that banded nature of the precip. A classic coastal just steady moves NE and intensifies, and the precip area comes in as a wall w/ a solid WAA blitz, and *then* the precip becomes more banded and showery as the upper trough and comma head moves in. But given this was an outlier event in terms of setup/pattern, none of what happened should have been a surprise. In the end, it delivered big many areas.

Can you image if this was snow w/ those kind of narrow precip maxes/mins? You never would hear the end of it! Meanwhile, @CoastalWx would have likely *actually* said, "this is TOO MUCH in Weymouth! I can't get out of my house!!!""

Despite being such a "warm" storm, it still managed to get that classic SE quad cool/cold air instability CU over the ocean we see so often in the weenie classics! When I first swt a VIS image of the Bliz of 78 as a kid, that cold air CU always stuck in my mind! One of more crazy cold air CU wraps was the Bliz of 97. @CoastalWx PT!

.71" rainfall on the day in Methuen, 1.06" Sunday, .58" Saturday, .03" Friday for a 4-day event total of 2.38"

"communicated quite well," yah, to the point that ppl were ticked that so many *indoor* events were cancelled and ppl treated it like a snowstorm raid the grocery store! From a fcst model perspective, they nailed it, as you said. It indeed did end up being the biggest Sep nor'easter on record for the region, not only for rain/wind, but also for duration as well. Sometimes I find this overlooked, which is should not be. Our ability to fcst high-end, outlier wx events has become excellent in the last 10-15 years and that has translated to a lot of $$ and lives saved. Contrary to popular belief, the wx is not becoming less forecastable or "unrecognizable" w/ warmer mean temps. I have to state this at times in discussions -- the laws of physics and thermodynamics do not change b/c temps on avg change (up or down). Water still freezes at 0 C, latent heat of fusion/vaporization/sublimation remains the same, the sun angle at any given latitude is still the same every year on any given date, etc.

It was memorable but nothing we haven’t seen

As with all things rain in south central Texas ---- By now I have learned to take these predictions with about 41,000 grains of Dead Sea salt. I've been here for 8 years. Rain related heartbreak is as common down here as soul-wrenching taxes. With that said...... ( https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&issuedby=EWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 ) By Tuesday the upper level low will continue to push eastward towards the desert southwest thus shunting the subtropical ridge currently over our area and pushing it off to the east. As this happens lee side surface troughing east of the rockies will help to bring in stronger southeasterly winds at the surface. This in turn will help pull in more moisture up from the Gulf giving us a better shot at rain and storm chances during the day along with our typical seabreeze. For now have capped rain chances at 30 percent for areas mainly along and east of the I-35 Corridor. By Tuesday night we could start to see rain/storm chances increase as we begin to see the beginning effects of the upper level low over the desert southwest as it slowly deepens and progresses eastward towards the Southern Plains. Additionally, significant amounts of moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be pulled into our area in the upper levels along with lower level moisture being brought in from the Gulf. We could see PWATS approaching and even exceeding 2 inches. As such any storms that do form will be tropical in nature and capable of very heavy rainfall. WPC currently has Val Verde and parts of Edwards counties in a level 1 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall for Tuesday with the risk shifting eastward and increasing further as we get beyond Tuesday night. More about that in the long term portion below. The advertised pattern change is on track for mid to late week with increased showers and thunderstorm chances beginning Wednesday and continuing through late week and beyond. An upper low will be located over the Four Corners region Wednesday, eventually moving east across the Central and Southern Plains late week bringing a Pacific cold front across our area. Abundant moisture will be available ahead of this system with some guidance showing PWATs around 200 percent above normal.

I’ll believe it when I see it

Had a weenie friend go to Hampton Beach today. Sand drifts along the boardwalk were NUTZ! Has @CoastalWx ever seen such before in GHG????

That is odd. Usually every ERC, the radii of TS and HU winds expands somewhat.

Yeah it’s not as simple as “if I have competing cool ENSO influences, I am subtracting from the super El Niño which makes the pattern better for the east.” By that logic, 2023-24 should’ve been cold but it wasn’t. I am actually disappointed that the -PDO keeps dropping further because that’s bad for us. Although I still maintain that the PDO won’t really matter so much in a season like this either way.

QB's playing in/or against the NFC North having a tough run. Black n Blue division rocks!

1.24" today.. 2.18" for the event

Hanna is another case of a TS that would have highly likely been totally missed prior to the satellite era, and even during the satellite era, not declared. NHC was not aggressive in naming many short-lived "throwaway" systems through the early 1990s. For instance, there are 5 systems in 1992 that will likely be included in the reanalysis once it gets to the 1990s (at least one will be a short-lived HU). One thing that changed by the 00s is ASCAT. When you had a highly sheared system like Hanna, it was hard to know if winds were min TS strength and if the LLCC was closed. Now, much easier to tell from remote sat products like ASCAT what the winds are. SAR is making it even better now. Also, what we call a TC has evolved over time. We now know that there is a wide spectrum of TC types and seasons like 2005 showed us how far that spectrum can be pushed! And in a seasonal perspective, what is happening this season matches well w/ what to expect during strong or very strong El Nino. MDR squashed and high-latitude developments primarily. Some ppl here probably getting sick of the "nickel and dime" ACE progress!

Fay is going to upgraded again to a 35 kt TS at 03z. The ATCF 00z position notes this and Tropical Tidbits pulls the ATCF so it already says "Tropical Storm Fay" for its floater WIill not go away!

dude, you have a weather station and still make stuff up pretty sad in all "seriousness"

WB 18Z EPS. Euro is back on board for Sunday.

The Bears third string quarterback looks like Joe Montana. Our second string quarterback looks like a steaming pile of crap!

I have a garage where I'll do the painting, but once the paint is on, i'll need good weather since it doesn't fit all 3 cars I'm working on: my daily driver '97 Accord which is eucalyptus green pearl, wife's '00 Camry which is antique sage pearl, and the '03 Accord, which is satin silver metallic it's kind of interesting, both Accords rusted in the front sections of the rear wheel wells and up the running boards underneath the rear doors; the Camry rusted behind the rear wheel wells, and not nearly as much as the Accords