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12z suite is rolling. I am going to put my thoughts on this suite in this single post. I will simply update it by editing. Feel free to comment. Just know this post is going to have several comments. So, you might "like" one thing, and it might be followed by something you don't like. Haha. 12z GFS -The GFS is really the first model to correct the Pacific NW. It has beens slowly doing this very several runs. Let's see where this run goes. I generally just toss the run if a slp wonders from British Columbia to 500 east of LA. 6z had a realistic solution.

The entire ENSO thread is a tug of war between those extremes.

At least we don't live in the 1930s. Decadal Average Annual Snowfall for Hartford, CT 1920–1929: ~31.0 inches 1930–1939: ~14.8 inches 1940–1949: ~35.4 inches 1950–1959: ~40.9 inches 1960–1969: ~60.5 inches 1970–1979: ~46.2 inches 1980–1989: ~39.2 inches 1990–1999: ~39.5 inches 2000–2009: ~45.2 inches 2010–2019: ~51.8 inches 2020–2024: ~27.3 inches

I was still about 10" below average that year....that is the season that saw a slew of SOP deals pork me, but def. the "best" since 2018.

I saw a Roundy tweet and was like "this can go one of two ways"....either you shared, or snowman....I saw you and was like, "Thank God". Yea, mid January is a time of great flux that I am focused on....expect big +PNA/TNH to lead into the big Feb SSW.

Somebody talk to me about January and February... What are we seeing? Shorts or snow boots?

Long range looks fine. Much better than yesterday

you'd think they'd update it though upton has the same thing here even as of 11am.

2020-21 was actually the one good year, although winter ended way too early after mid-Feb. But aside from that, every other year after 2017-18 ranged from 41-54”. I wouldn’t complain too much if this winter ends up in that range, but man I want a MECS every year.

Absolutely, let's hope we get something to focus on other than visions of snowless winters dancing in our heads.

MVL here is up to 37F and warmest of the month. -10.1 in December through this point and today might threaten to be the first day to average above normal.

Raw day here with the cloud cover

I’ve seen Mets saying it has a cold bias and its ensembles as well. I wish we had someone on here with access to Google deep mind, because it’s been very accurate since summer.

I get the long range isn’t looking so hot, but let’s try and focus on the Christmas period, no?

I don't think I've seen much rain in Montana in winter

44° I hear the dripping down the gutters. It looked nice for a few days at least - about 3" left

keeping the "pack" strong for 1 more day....It is odd that it hasn't updated yet, still states mostly sunny...at least throw a clouds to sun for those who just rip and read forecasts, that is why I prefer the NBC10 over the NWS for everyday forecasts.

Thought we'd get more sun today. Nothing but gloom after 9:30 this morning.

Glad you asked. The period between December 26-January 1 is historically one of the least snowy periods for our area from December to March. I will back up with maps later (busy day at work)

ORH has had 1 AN day this month -8.3F MTD. Those numbers will get closer to normal over the next few days

Yup...strong "suck" signal in terms of snowfall. We have two weeks to do something about it before I become convinced of an 8th consecutive dud.

It's 35.0 here at WXW2. This is the first time in December that SLK has been above freezing. Absolutely nuts.

Is NG finally bottoming? It’s currently up over 3%. If this were to hold, this would be the best day since Dec 5th, the day it peaked. There’s been only one other up day since then, Dec 9th, when it closed up 1/2% and then was followed by more big down days as the maps kept insisting on warmth dominating the US. Why do I think it’s up today? The AO and especially the NAO forecasts have gotten significantly more negative than yesterday’s more neutral forecasts as per my post three above this. A strong -NAO lead to much colder 0Z and 6Z GFS after Christmas fwiw. This kind of thing with the -NAO/-AO happened early this month.

I was looking at past ORH winters where the total to date was single digits by New Years. It looks like seasonal totals of 35-50” were common. I also grouped the average snowfall of every 5-7 year stretch since 1980 and found that the snow drought eras averaged around 50-55”. That includes the last 7 seasons, as well as the 80s. Of course, I’m at a lower elevation than ORH so I can expect probably 5-10” less than those numbers. Needless to say, knowing where I come from, I’ll be thrilled to hit climo.

Need some local data on new year eve snowfall. I don't ever recall any round here. I say bank on it