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The last high ran well east too far and fast so don’t know why this would plunge south. We don’t get many good high pressures centered on the MD line

Yeah euro has some opportunities

SOI has been tanking since NOV 23. Only one day of substantial + since then.

If folks wanna muse... check out that 00z CrazyForecastSystem model known as the CFS. There's a high impact coast for the 11th/12th, which is really in all honesty the same 10th/11th period we've been toying with - at this range, even the shitty models will shuffle within spatial-temporal reasonability. Anyway, the Euro has it too but all these guidance types are highly mutable at this range ...goes without sayin'

Total rainfall here was 1.21" ending as a brief period of non-accumulating light snow after midnight. The difference between the 4" gage and the ambient was significant; 1.21" in the bucket vs 1.51" with the Ambient. 1.21" stands. If it had been all snow, that would have been some nasty wet slop

Yes, models have been terrible. Don't anyone try to convince me otherwise. Is it just me or does model performance seem to tank during winter months almost every year?

I do what I want... Nah, @bristolri_wx DM'd me a link to a submission form that looks something like this. I simply filled it out and submitted it.

Euro has a little clipper overnight 12/9-10. Bigger looking clipper for 12/11…that one almost morphs into a SWFE. There’s stuff to watch at least.

Can’t get anything to go negative tilt when we need it to. Prob related to a lack of blocking which im assuming is at least partially due to an overactive northern stream. I need to do more research on indices…others here have way more knowledge on that.

Paul Roundy said it, dude is a genius so I am not bold enough to argue! But you're a pretty sharp cookie yourself Don, you're allowed, lol. Good post!

Yep. 2.7” here. BTV was spot on for us. Now we wait for the Arctic front. Would be fun to get below zero.

I like how any cold shot now is a polar vortex. The media is so dumb.

Sun is breaking thru the clouds at times in last 10-15 minutes, up to 34.4/27.0 at 1 pm.

I realize this is out of the 45 year period, but you guys got 3-4" of snow on 2/10/73, The Great Southeastern Snowstorm

Took a long walk today and for the first time in years in early December, I saw ponds starting to freeze over along the shallow sections. It reminded me that we are in an unusually cool stretch since Thanksgiving. Hopefully, this pattern will repeat in January and we will get a flush hit for everyone.

That's the other thing...there seems to be no middle ground with these HPs. Either they're too weak and scoots off, or they're too strong and south. I sure would like to know why. It's been like that the last 8 years.

The 12Z Euro has an off the coast low on 12/8 but it’s significantly too warm for snow per 850s/there’s no cold air connection at the surface and it’s actually dry over much of NC outside of far SE part of the state:

Thanks!

We have 75 entrants for this season's contest. That equals the number from two seasons ago and exceeds the 69 entrants that we had last season. Of those 69, 55 returned this season and 14 dropped out, with 20 additional entrants joining. The average number of inches of snow forecast (with median forecasts in parenthesis) for the four contest airports are as follows: BWI: 18.2 (19.2) DCA: 13.4 (13.9) IAD: 20.2 (20.8) RIC: 9.6 (8.8) Total: 61.4 (63.0) The average number of inches of snow forecast (median forecasts) for the two tiebreaker airports are as follows, with eight entrants selecting LYH and 67 entrants selecting SBA: LYH: 9.8 (11.1) SBA:10.1 (9.4) Below is the summary table, with 2022-23 champion @LittleVillageWx at the low end with a 4-airport forecast of 6.6 inches, and perennial snow optimist @George BM at the high end with a 4-airport forecast of 167.6 inches.

I have that problem with the excel files I maintain for my climate records. For my monthly snowfall summary ( https://www.northshorewx.com/ClimateData/SmithtownDailySnowfall.pdf ) I have a 0 for months where there were traces so that the averages don't get messed up (excluding October and May where the average is 0). I keep sheets with the daily data including traces, but I can't calculate an average value for a given date (e.g., December 3) because of all the years that have a trace on that date. As a result, the difference between the actual average seasonal snowfall and the sum of the daily averages for the season in excel is significant; 36.2" vs 41.0"

The fun part is knowing that it can still trend south. We need an active subtropical jet in the absolute worst kinda way. When was the last 6”+ snowstorm in Frederick? Maybe 2019? I was still in Bethesda and we got rocked with that one.

Well yeah he's further south than I am, lol See it seems climo has (hopefully temporarily) shifted and anything coming from the south that's not a full-on coastal just hits a wall from Baltimore north in the winter time. All started Dec 2018 and hasn't been right since.

Lol. Yeah right. Too many lords of flies around here. The problem is people don’t really appreciate insight/foresight and honest intention. Their primary purpose for being in here is an addiction - haha. I little frustration in saying so.. okay, but if the shoe fits? When you don’t fulfill an addiction, you become a crank - that’s how all drug addicts are. You know … withdraw sucks and they come to associate the failed d-drip (when during the cinema period being more important than the storm itself), to whomever it was that actually detected the possibility in the first place - as completely “fair” as that is. I mean the recognition and so forth was/is usually clad and very possible. Not everyone can score though, because we still deal in a chaotic enterprise ...etc etc

It seems that's becoming more and more the norm...

I want to be invested, but that hp is a force. Are we relying on some lead frontrunning precip etc for this one? I feel like this has ots potential. I’m actually not even sure how precip is making it as far north as depicted given the setup.