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I don't think January will be cold in the mean because the second half cold will largely serve to negate the first half warmth. I think February and/or March will be colder.

The record is a fluke. JFK went over 4 inches twice in 2024, one of them being over 6 inches.

Wait, you don't like the Henry runs up the middle for -2 to +2 yards on first down EVERY DAMN TIME?!!?!? We really only get two chances to get a first down.

We had several rounds of flurries in Westfield yesterday. I got to watch while repairing a bullshit "insulation" job under what used to be our front porch. SO much cold coming up through the floor already into the living room. Closed cell FTW

Thanks Don! What makes this even more incredible IMO is the fact that during this time frame New Orleans had a bigger snowfall event of greater than 4 inches (and Ocean City Maryland had multiple events).

Same page, I'm still thinking January is the cold month for the east. Best chance for MA snows before Feb torch. Dec isn't really in play for us down here imho

Yea, but the PV isn't stout, either....you don't need February 2010 blocking to slide just under neutral in the monthly mean (NAO). This will be a good snowfall pattern for NE, but not the mid atl...agree. No KUs, but rather a series of moderate snowfalls owed to WAA/SWFEs. January will be the +PNA mismatch month this season....take that to the bank.

As someone with way too much insight in how these crappy things work, can you click on the weather and bring up the larger notification panel? See what city it is forecasting for. If you are using a VPN or your ISP gives you an IP that is registered somewhere else, the geolocation stuff isn't smart enough to figure it out. I also don't think EC is getting an inch of rain, but they really cover their bases with "up to". NWS has me .2-.5".

the lack of a prolonged SPV disruption lessens the risk of blocking this month... maybe late, but who knows this far out overall, looks pretty meh for the Northeast into mid-late month. the -WPO and TPV in Canada should continue to present snowfall risks, especially into New England, but large storms look unlikely as long as the NAO remains positive and the PNA negative should see the PNA rise later on in the month as the MJO continues to progress

you usually get the wave breaking needed for -NAO when you get a huge cutter... you usually need -PNA to accomplish this

It looks like the LGA daily record streak under 4” is continuing also. There may be a glitch in the program they use to calculate. Since it shows it ending last January 10th and there were no daily 4” snowfall totals after that date. But there were several daily 3.5” totals last winter. Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1940-01-01 to 2025-11-22 1 1077 2022-01-30 through 2025-01-10 2 1051 1961-02-05 through 1963-12-22 3 761 2018-11-16 through 2020-12-15 4 746 1950-02-14 through 1952-02-29 5 744 1979-02-20 through 1981-03-04 6 743 1996-03-09 through 1998-03-21 7 742 2011-01-28 through 2013-02-07 8 715 1972-02-24 through 1974-02-07 9 701 1975-02-13 through 1977-01-13 10 690 1941-03-09 through 1943-01-27 Climatological Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - January 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1165 845 - - 1003 0 0.51 4.1 2025-01-01 52 40 46.0 9.9 19 0 T 0.0 0 2025-01-02 44 35 39.5 3.6 25 0 T 0.0 0 2025-01-03 40 32 36.0 0.3 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-04 34 29 31.5 -4.0 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-05 34 28 31.0 -4.4 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-06 32 23 27.5 -7.7 37 0 0.04 0.5 0 2025-01-07 34 20 27.0 -8.0 38 0 0.00 0.0 T 2025-01-08 31 24 27.5 -7.4 37 0 0.00 0.0 T 2025-01-09 34 24 29.0 -5.7 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-10 41 28 34.5 -0.1 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-11 36 29 32.5 -2.0 32 0 0.02 M T 2025-01-12 43 31 37.0 2.6 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-13 44 34 39.0 4.8 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-14 36 26 31.0 -3.2 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-15 33 24 28.5 -5.6 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-16 31 25 28.0 -6.0 37 0 T T 0 2025-01-17 44 27 35.5 1.6 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-18 46 36 41.0 7.1 24 0 0.11 0.0 0 2025-01-19 41 26 33.5 -0.3 31 0 0.18 3.6 M 2025-01-20 28 18 23.0 -10.8 42 0 T T 2 2025-01-21 20 13 16.5 -17.3 48 0 0.00 0.0 2 2025-01-22 21 13 17.0 -16.8 48 0 0.00 0.0 1 2025-01-23 30 18 24.0 -9.8 41 0 0.00 0.0 1 2025-01-24 34 25 29.5 -4.3 35 0 0.00 0.0 1 2025-01-25 33 23 28.0 -5.8 37 0 0.00 0.0 1 2025-01-26 44 32 38.0 4.2 27 0 0.00 0.0 T 2025-01-27 42 33 37.5 3.6 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-28 42 33 37.5 3.6 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-29 53 32 42.5 8.5 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-30 38 26 32.0 -2.1 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-31 50 38 44.0 9.9 21 0 0.16 0.0 0 Climatological Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - February 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1174 827 - - 810 0 2.61 7.7 - Average 41.9 29.5 35.7 -0.6 - - - - 0.3 Normal 42.7 29.9 36.3 - 804 0 2.93 9.8 2025-02-01 50 22 36.0 1.8 29 0 T 0.0 0 2025-02-02 32 18 25.0 -9.3 40 0 0.10 1.2 0 2025-02-03 49 31 40.0 5.6 25 0 T T T 2025-02-04 50 31 40.5 5.9 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-05 37 27 32.0 -2.7 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-06 40 29 34.5 -0.3 30 0 0.32 0.4 T 2025-02-07 45 30 37.5 2.6 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-08 36 27 31.5 -3.6 33 0 0.58 3.5 0 2025-02-09 36 31 33.5 -1.7 31 0 0.05 0.1 2 2025-02-10 38 31 34.5 -0.9 30 0 0.00 0.0 2 2025-02-11 36 27 31.5 -4.1 33 0 0.12 1.0 1 2025-02-12 36 31 33.5 -2.2 31 0 0.10 0.5 2 2025-02-13 47 34 40.5 4.6 24 0 0.18 T T 2025-02-14 37 30 33.5 -2.6 31 0 0.00 0.0 T 2025-02-15 36 28 32.0 -4.3 33 0 0.37 0.6 0 2025-02-16 49 34 41.5 5.1 23 0 0.79 0.0 0 2025-02-17 38 27 32.5 -4.1 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-18 28 20 24.0 -12.8 41 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-19 31 18 24.5 -12.5 40 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-20 30 19 24.5 -12.7 40 0 T 0.4 0 2025-02-21 35 22 28.5 -8.9 36 0 0.00 0.0 T 2025-02-22 41 22 31.5 -6.1 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-23 47 35 41.0 3.2 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-24 49 34 41.5 3.5 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-25 57 43 50.0 11.8 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-02-26 57 43 50.0 11.6 15 0 T 0.0 0 2025-02-27 55 40 47.5 8.8 17 0 T 0.0 0 2025-02-28 52 43 47.5 8.6 17 0 T 0.0 0

Another interesting tidbit about the modern climate that @Stormchaserchuck1has pointed out is the tendency for -NAO intervals to coincide with -PNA.....which is important considering there should be some -NAO episodes early on. I think there was also a graphic he posted concerning the negative correlation for the following December after a strongly +PNA (last year)....not to mention the GLAAM being significantly more negative than last year. This dove tailed nicely into my expectation for a rapid recovery of the PV and lead into a January reflection event triggering a mid season +TNH pattern.

I like how the GGEM has temps between 10 and 15 degrees for basically all of Virginia Friday morning but here it has us above freezing lol

Several of us came to the conclusion that the PNA would be weaker than last December by using different methods which converged on the same solution.

Just for fun:

TBH, I was nervous that I should have incorporated more of the December 2000 MJO behavior (phase 8) and gone colder, but I have learned to err on the side of caution with respect to that in this modern era (see Bluewave).

An oil industry myth. The bigger the wind turbine the faster it pays out the energy needed to make it. Only 64 days for a 3.4 MW turbine https://pure.sruc.ac.uk/en/publications/life-cycle-analysis-of-the-embodied-carbon-emissions-from-14-wind/ https://www.vestas.com/en/sustainability/environment/energy-payback

Yea Ray, DT really thought December was going to be a big +PNA month….

As long as Thanksgiving is good so that the balloons can fly high.

IF wind advisory Fri, think it will be mostly 5A-Noon. No thread on this til at least Wed...too marginal.

I'm interested to see if DT starts to sweat when he releases the this week in WX video.

oh, wow thanks. This site is almost identical to cornells climodv2 that i've been using for snowfall amounts for maps since it pulls from coop,cocorahs and climo sites but this is even nicer and it tells you what the source is! thats awesome, i think ill switch to this one.

I'm sure my forecast will go astray at some point, but I've learned so much about the strat this summer and fall.

6z GFS shows 2 chances of snow this run between the 4th & 6th. Enjoy it for 6 hours… but hopefully this is the beginning of tracking season.

I don’t want to jinx you but it’s looking like a very good call on your part with the SPV, along with the increasingly likely flip to RNA/-PNA in December Edit: Also have to give credit to @bluewave with the -PNA December call (looks likely now)