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Looking good time to lock it in

Def some more hugged members in there. Baby steps.

Foxborough trolling Taunton over location was not on my bingo card

We missed you Bob!

HRRR continues to be very impressive, albeit likely overdone. Verbatim would likely mean some pockets of 12-18" over IA and N IL/S WI.

I don’t know what kind of ratios this is. I prefer to look at 10:1 and bump it up a little in my head. It’s hard to get 15:1 or better this time of year without lake enhancement. WAA snow tends to be somewhat denser, at least in my area with E wind off the land.

I hope everyone had a nice time celebrating today

I am in a much better spot than you are for this storm. I don’t think I am getting a lot, but nothing is unlikely.

Ditto this! I was 11 but my experience was the same as yours. I remember waking up around 4ish and was in absolute awe at how hard it was snowing where I lived in Baltimore. I went from window to window not really believing what I was seeing. It was also special that the rest of the family was still asleep...felt like it was a special gift just for me! Although I have seen a couple of storms with more overall accumulation, there was no replacing seeing the rates that PD1 gave early that morning! Instant imprint on my brain that led to this sick obsession that I share with many of you on this board. I'm glad that I am now old enough that I can enjoy each and every event without all of the ups and downs of model mania.

0z HRRR whitens the ground tomorrow for some

We absolutely want a good source region for surface cold but if the mid levels are torched/ruined by a too late low transfer to the coast, the surface doesn’t matter unless you’re into a lot of sleet or ZR. This setup seems like there’s enough cold air to the north at the surface that we’re more interested in when the low transfers to the coast and surface wind direction. A transfer too late keeps winds onshore and torches our surface, or torches the mid levels by a bad 700/850 low track to our west. You also really want to watch the mid level low evolution in a storm like this and where the 700/850 lows track.

You are the James of Central Mass.

18z EPS looked a little better than the op

Hope things are going better Bob.

Goal posts have moved a bit for sure. 2-4” N&W, trace to 2” closer to the fall line seems like a reasonable outcome to HOPE FOR at this point. We’ve seen a few last second moves our way the past few years but it is also so early in the season, and not mid January. Still time for things to shift but we should remember the date and our climo and temper expectations accordingly.

Glad everything has worked out for you and your back.

Holding off 12 hours til 7AFri. 18z ECAI still south but the ECAI Ensemble is not... its similar to the blend EPS-GEFS (melting LI, I95 itself eastward).

Not much to add from what has already been said since this AM. Not to much to glean out of the runs today from a sensible wintery outcome for anyone. Only trend really there is for impacts of some kind for New England. Hope everyone had a great day today. I’m sorry I’ve been absent from the forum for a while. Just a “Perfect Storm” of life transpired and has brought me to where I am now. I’ve missed this and look forward this next endeavor.

This is a weird post lol. If I get nothing, you’ll also get nothing.

Said essentially the same last night, tho not as eloquently worded as you. Another 2 weeks would be a little bit better for climo. But like you said, antecedent airmass (which ties in with climo timing) just isnt good here for the lowlands. But....this cant be a bad signal getting chances in the first week of December. Might be a season with ample tracking situations. Happy Thanksgiving !

It’s going to be a good event for ski areas. You will get nothing because you live in the ocean and it’s not winter yet.

That’s ugly for ACATT

Be careful out there. Accidents everywhere, ice everywhere. I had to ditch my car and walk a few minutes to get to my house.

I mean if there's a deep anticyclone over Quebec you definitely want as much snowpack in the source region as possible the air that funnels south is cold.

Hey thanks CheeselandSkies! I followed you back…