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Big snow aggregates are just demolishing the Woolly Lot right now at 21 degrees, and are being blown sideways by that wind as well! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

Yeah, the 0z Euro looks really good for Stratosphere warming, coming in 3 bursts, and holding strong through December 4. Dec 4th has a +30-35 day normal lag as a secondary event to the troposphere, so we're correlating with -AO conditions to the 1st week of January.

00z ECMWF at 50 hPa has a full PV split with 3 daughter vortices, one right over the US. That'll help heading into December.

This is the pattern that a lot of us were talking about this Summer and Fall, showing itself in the first few days of December already! @40/70 Benchmark -AO/+NAO It has still shown difficult for an Aleutian ridge to get established and hold persistent.. notice how the Pacific is +PNA there. Could be the MJO passing through 7-8, too. Kind of a "Neutral ENSO" type thing in the N. Pacific, imo. -AO near 90N does correlate with cold around 45N, but it doesn't actually usually go south of 40N, unless the ridge moves over the Davis Strait or northern Canada. We saw this pattern last February. We'll need that +PNA to get going, amping a ridge over the West Coast to get a far SE pushing cold shot, at least in the first part of December.

IEM is such a fun little rabbit hole to sink into. Especially when things are quiet. Looked at tornado warning counts over the past nearing 20 years (2005-2025). A few things stood out to me in particular right away. There was one small area in Illinois that has had 0 tornado warnings in the past 20 years, near Dalzell (NNW of Peru) in LaSalle County. Similarly, two small areas in Iowa that have had 0 tornado warnings in same period. One in W Winneshiek County, around/east of Protivin. The other in Ida County around Battle Creek. Indiana appeared to have full coverage over the period, which is what I’d expected from IL/IA. MN/WI/MI/OH had several gaps, but again expected given areas reaching further outside the core climatological favored areas for svr/tor. One interesting part for MN, though, was the boundary between Grand Folks & Duluth CWA. Particularly pronounced between Wadena & Cass Counties. You’ll see it immediately. There’s definitely more county boundary differences that become noticeable but that one jumped out to me quite a bit compared to the rest of the field I looked at.

Would not be surprised at a coating. No sun to contend with. Early-season over-performer. See what HRRR comes up with.

He is the most conservative met i have ever seen. He is always playing catch up. I would sooner trust Justin Berk, at least he has faith in the flakes.

Upton has “rain/snow” in its forecast for northern half of Long Island tomorrow night

How could she cheat on such a stud. I’m appalled.

Mammoth is blizzarding at 21 20 degrees with wind gusts to 45. Village level has 3-4 inches. Main Lodge level has 8-9 inches on the ground with 21 degrees and it is coming down and blowing all over the place! McCoy Station at 9600 feet has 12-14 inches with 18 degrees, Summit at 11000 feet has 20 inches of snow at 14 degrees. Snow all night, at least another 4 inches, then more snow on Thursday from yet another storm in the Pacific Set. https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam Mammoth is set to Open on Nov 20.

It’s even reaching here. Maybe half an inch tonight.

24-36 hours later and still going.

Just investigated and it is indeed crisp out there lol

From JB today: Euro MJO closest analogs 1983 and 1989 The severe cold Decembers of 1983 and 1989 both raise the spectre of a cold shot letting loose into the Texas Citrus areas, with Fla secondary concern had a major stratwarm in mid to late November, almost identical to now —————- The only problem with this is that there was no major stratwarm in mid to late Nov of 1983 or 1989 or anytime during early to mid winter for both for that matter: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-SSW-and-SFW-event-onset-date-year-and-type-identified-in-the-NCEP-NCAR-dataset-The_tbl1_267063738 ———- Also, I checked to see if the 60-90N temperatures in the strat. in mid to late Nov were notably warm and they weren’t. Lastly, I checked the zonal winds at 60N in both Novs to see if they were weak despite no actual reversal. They weren’t as they were pretty close to normal. https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html#ncep_clim_stats_nh

Already down to 37 this evening

Just about every 0z model shows some snow or rain/snow mix for parts of EPA through Warren, Sussex, and Morris counties in NJ overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. It's mostly a narrow strip at the northern edge of a decaying precipitation shield, but a few models mix in some snow across a wider area. It's an overnight deal that most won't even notice and it's certainly not a sexy storm. The other problem is surface temperatures in the mid-30s. But I believe there's a chance for an inch or two of snow in a few spots above 1000ft along the northern edge of the steady light precipitation. That's more likely to occur in CPA, but if it holds together long enough, parts of NJ might be in play. The NAM looks overdone but RGEM/GFS/ECM/ICON look plausible. Note the images show 10:1 snow accumulation even though actual accumulations are unlikely in lower elevations due to surface temperatures. 0z NAM 0z RGEM

@Lava Rock all set check your PM.

Just got home for the day, was 28 degrees down at the river on car thermometer, 37.4 here at the house 1/3 mile away and 300 foot higher in elevation.

@MarkO all set. Check PM for form link.

30 here now. Maybe upper 20s?

44" seasonal snowfall measured. 38" of snow depth at the Stake. Not much settling happening out there. This snow is dense, with plenty of dense graupel and smaller flakes, mixed with wind. It has felt like dense sand... QPF-rich frozen precip.

I think a harsh reality for all of us each winter is that the weather we were pre-conditioned on throughout Dec, Jan and Feb many years ago has now shifted 2-3 states north for all of the reasons you’ve listed. I’ve lived in the foothills my whole life and we haven’t had a true NC foothills winter that I grew up on in a very long time. It resembles how I would’ve viewed a Georgia winter as a kid. Likewise, for folks in SC and Georgia, they’re really leaning on the side of infrequency. The woes go further north too. That NC foothills winter near and dear to my heart is the new reality for areas like DC and Baltimore. It’s all built into perspective and I myself struggle adjusting to that. I guess it makes all snowfall that much more special in the future.

Snow totals from the storm. https://www.qsl.net/n2sln/stormtot25122002.html

One of the early 90s great winters came close to wire to wire. Every time it warmed up it was brief with a cold front with squalls ending it. Will probably remembers the year, I want to say 93-94.