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12Z EPS held into the cold partially because of this:

Hey, we got a white Christmas out of it, snow on Christmas Eve, and subzero lows two days before Christmas. If that's what it takes, encourage him to do the same this year.

Yeah that’s decently SE of the EPS now.

Stayed in the mid 30's all afternoon with winds gusting to 30. Snow grains falling at times under partly sunny skies. High of 36.

I agree....I'm fine with that.

Will this remain the odd one out or will all the other models cave to this over the next 40 hours?

Same here…brief, but ‘twas snow.

Looks like serious taint if I am being honest.

MKE not playing around! Feeling like a 5 year old on Christmas Eve.

Decided to bike in this nonsense and was treated to a light flurry while I was pumping air in my tires. This might be the year. Edit: Was supposed to go in Obs.

Yeah. That would be game over for everyone. Is what it is.

understatement.

Hopefully it’s interesting. 2020, as well as other December’s, jaded me so much that it’s hard to get my hopes up, especially if we torch right before Christmas.

I would love 21z rap to verify please

hopefully this keeps trending south? how is the euro look 18z?

Me, neither.

Or does it?

Were not seeing 2" qpf, Probably 0.5-1.0" would be more realistic, 18z GEFS looks nothing like the OP, Its SE of it.

41/29 today east side of Columbia

Yeah I don't understand...y'all just won the SB LAST YEAR and you're still leading your division for crying out loud! I really don't get this level of angst...

Everything looks relatively encouraging for I-95 NW except the GFS. It's insistent on a packet of vorticity and associated sharp shortwave tracking from MO through OH through northern NY. Most other guidance is AR through KY through PA or SNJ. If a shortwave tracks that far NW it will be very hard to keep snow anywhere along the coastal plain. From memory I feel like if any model sees this kind of shortwave tracking near the Lakes with a coastal SLP, it ends up verifying.

I feel like the weighted blend right now would be 75% Euro, 25% GFS, only because there's more modeling supporting the Euro right now.

Interesting, they even mention lake enhancement. Doesn’t match up with LOT at all. Edit: looking at it again, its actually matches up. Just a really odd look to the LOT map with the 5-9” stripe in the heart of Cook County.

38 for a high