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80's in October is sacrilege. I guess we are paying for August Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I'm flummoxed by the state of Penn State Football. Last year, much was made about the passing game, specifically the lack of receptions by our wideouts. We go out and bring in 3 guys via the portal. Great. And yet, our passing game has become more anemic than ever. How in the hell does Kyron Hudson get shutout in prime time? Like seriously...how does this happen? The offensive line - they can't provide enough space for Singleton or Allen to do much of anything. Two really good backs who have no where to run far too often. Franklin. You know, you listen to Ryan Day, you listen to Dan Lanning, you listen to Kirby Smart, you listen to the head coach of every top team in the country and they talk about winning a national title. James Franklin talks about fan's expectations. He talks about the importance of being included in the conversation as being one of the top teams in the country. He doesn't talk about titles. It's like he knows he's an outside and he wants to be included in the "cool kids club" and that's good enough for him. It's not exactly a winning mentality. This team has a chance at being one of the most overrated preseason picks in recent memory. Though, they won't be on FSU's level last year, but you almost can count the Columbus school as loss, at Iowa seems scary right now, and can this team score enough against Indiana? I don't want to overreact but how good is this team, really? It's not like they lit the world on fire playing their first 3 games against teams that ranked 136 out of 136 on strength of schedule. Vent/discuss/counterpoint here.

Yea I am a hair under 75 as well

Why move to Florida when we can do sunny, dry, and AN without the humidity DJF?

Yeah you basically answered what I was saying lol

74.9 only so far for both my stations. You have more sun or temp sensor is at EWR, lol

Looking at the recent guidance, if I were going to highlight some areas of interest it would be the Gulf/SE Coast in the next week, the western Caribbean with a weak CAG signal in the 7-10 day period, and a tropical wave in the MDR in that same period. It looks pretty active--or at least there will be chances for TC genesis. Might do a post later about it. I track my peak season forecast numbers in the legacy Mid-Atlantic thread, but I'll post here too. Imelda likely gets me to 3 H or 50% of my forecast with three full weeks left (including today). It has an outside shot at MH, which may all but guarantee that I am too low on MH as I expect at least high end activity in October. Unfortunately for coastal residents, I still think a MH strike is likely, and that the east coast isn't out of the woods on threats. I'm not sure what to think about Imelda's threat to the coast--if not for Humberto going nuclear, I think this would've been the EC hurricane strike I predicted. For the east coast that definitely gets less likely in October though as the images I posted above show, that's really after the 10th. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (4) Hurricanes: 6 (2) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda

80

There are some good values on condos available in Florida..

Been stagnant pattern wise for the past 2 weeks. But potential for things to change 7-10 days from now. More active and a few more cooler shots

The Gulf looks somewhat active (more active than most of the season so far) overall on the 12Z models so far through 192 (Icon, GFS, CMC). However, the UKMET, which goes out only 168, did drop the Gulf TC per its textual output that it had on its prior 2 runs.

Should've posted this yesterday but it actually makes more sense today as Imelda is on an intensification trend. Imelda adds to the list and should become a hurricane. Outside shot at a major. The peak season forecast is still up in the air, but with activity still expected on the models and in the areas I highlighted, I like where I sit. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (4) Hurricanes: 6 (2) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda

Nah by then it’s time for the tables to turn. But to be honest I’m pretty numb to worrying about winter. I’ve learned not to worry over it after these last several years.

The 2025 ACE is now up to ~80, or near the 1951-2024 avg with it rising rapidly. I project it to reach ~88 as of the end of Sept, which compares to 94 for 1991-2020 and ~81.5 for 1951-2024. So, essentially 2025 will go in the books as NN through Sept. Humberto and Imelda should get 2025 to ~95 in early Oct. (near normal for then per 1991-2020). As of 9/30, 2025 will exceed 2024 and 2022 by 9-10 and be only ~2 under 2018. The 88 would move 2025 ahead of 1971 and 1981, which would then move 2025 up to 30th highest of the last 75 years. This chart’s avg. is based on 1951-2024, which is lower than 1991-2020. That’s why 2025 already hit the average line:

I think part of this, not all, is due to the ++WPO that we have had the last decade.

PDO is likely in transition this year, as the modest La Nina fades and we begin to work towards warm ENSO.

The Steeler game almost killed me after the Penn State game. We all left my friends house at 6am this morning feeling very old. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

I think what saved 16-17 from being a complete dud was the PDO. That winter had a neutral PDO, coming off of the ++PDO the winter before with the super Nino

78 / 51 running close to 80

I actually reinstalled. my house was an absolute oven last night ,and temps were not dropping much before bed time. reinstalled so i could get some sleep. will remain installed for the foreseeable future

With this incredible global warming increase, I think we could see average mean temperatures climbing near or above existing annual records by mid-century here in the mid latitudes. As I would expect 1-1.5F/decade of warming most likely, if the global rate is near +.7F/decade.

Seems like Tennessee is back on track. Come from behind on the road in a conference game is always a big W. Elsewhere in the SEC I think Alabama has righted their ship. Georgia should still be fine though. Ole Miss should get a big ranking boost. In pro we Chiefs fans can breathe a little easier. L. Jackson was in for 3Q so Baltimore what a good test. D has improved significantly. Offense may be finding its form, though Ravens D gave up a lot to Buffalo too. Do you know what's really crazy? Late Night for basketball programs is just around the corner. Overlap of college sports is the most wonderful time of the year!

This discussion is hawt! I'd like all the posts but then I'd run out of reactions for the day. Yeah the QBO trending down is important. I'm not a subscriber to buried negative in autumn. Give me the down trend. Rate of change could be far more useful than a deep negative snapshot. Siberian snow I also prefer a corollary over just the coverage anomaly. Why is coverage AN? A stormy start to the season drops a lot of snow, but might not be the path to -AO. A COLD start up there with high press, snow driven by temps not stormy, might be better for an eventual -AO. PSL Map Room: Global Circulation (Quick Menu): NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory is where I go to look. Unfortunately I see BN surface pressure in Siberia. I prefer AN Siberia with lower mean press in China. Ditto temp anomalies; I'd prefer they trade places. I use words like could be, might be for the QBO and Siberian Snow because neither has as solid a track record as was advertised 15 years ago. I still think they are useful as one tool in the tool belt. I also write from the good/bad perspective of want Southeast snow. The PDO could promote +PNA episodes which are cold in the Southeast. Wavelength matters though. And we need the WPO to cooperate with the EPO; otherwise, congratulations Great Plains! All that said, source region matters. 10 year trend matters. I lean mild for winter. However I don't have the torchy vibes I've had several recent winter forecasts. We may in the battle zone between temp regimes.

you are wishing for that lol...