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Those are the key words. It looks likely we see some sort of storm somewhere in the east. The pattern is in transition this week though, so that's going to add even more uncertainty. Depending on timing and track, there may be enough residual cold and blocking left for snow. After the 15th though, I think we probably see a "real" thaw and stack at least a couple days above average in a row.

If it's a real event, it's in a marginal atmosphere. About 15 or so years ago ... I began noticing that our "flop direction" is more wet than it used to be. Part of that, we seemed to more and more so need a direct cold loading prerequisite, or systems tend to rain more and more ( winter). It's kind of dilemma, because if we do have the direct cold sourcing, the N/stream is active ...but the catch 22 there is that the flow is sped up and compressing, which is a canvas negative interference. I've been wonder since these models recently began to pull the N/stream away, if we might see this and there it is... The event profiles are going back to more marginal temperature. We snap back to a reality that we've been enabled for the past several months ... not to face. Also, this snow pack - at least around here ... - does not contain a huge load of water content. It's fluffy yet still since the bigger event on Jan 26. If we get a 40 F raining coastal followed by +2 850 mb during transition season solar irradiance on d-slope backside flow, we will be bear ground probably faster the some might think. Cross that bridge I guess... The GEFs aren't yet interested and keep thing progressive and weak through that period. It's coming from midland strength southern streamer coming through the SW. It's actually similar to what led the big even on Jan 26, only this time ...no N/stream. But it may not be coming from a very densely sampled atmosphere. Lot to consider -

You need ticks S. It’s a quick band of WAA precip down there and then slot before the CAA right now.

I see Transylvania Co schools are out today because of snowfall from this morning? Thats wild, looks like a small bit of moisture worked in at like 4-5am.

Well that was a good run of cold temps, but sayonara, bon voyage, don’t forget to write. Let’s finish winter off more like Valdez instead of Fairbanks.

I didn’t say there was any that were heavy snow but there’s plenty of possibilities on the ensembles . Why not post that instead of emotional posts about rain and losing snow pack

Morning low of -7°. My low for the season.

6z euro is even worse.

my dude, you have been making stupid and gross dick jokes here for 20 years, despite being repeatedly asked by the women here to stop. step off the “but it degrades women!!!” soapbox. oh and btw, as a woman i can assure you that there was nothing degrading to women during to that performance.

We’ve had our snow nothing to be mad about if we warm up for a few days and some rain cleans the salt off the roads , still plenty of chances a good 6 weeks to go for snow chances.

That is interesting! Looks like we have a decent pass through phase 3, however, I would love to get back to 8 for bigger storm potential.

Find me the snowy solutions and post them please. Doesn’t look great.

Lol ok Kevin. I’m in a great mood was rooting for Seahawks I like Darnold (I’m a sorry Jets Fan)

Your first posts this morning were ..Ray gets his rain and let’s wipe it clean .. all emotion based . What you say and do sets the mood of the forum. Then you also send texts about a rainy Monday as if the forum was enough

Me, I'd move to the Tug or to a northern or western ski resort location, kick back in my favorite lawn chair and enjoy the brobdingnagian dendrites.

3-4 there.

Sounds like you’re in a bad mood and bringing everyone down.

Still looks good for 2-3" in my area

Nah I’m just explaining what guidance shows and not wishcasting. Maybe 1-2 for you. Maybe.

We need a move back SW, trends last cycle was to match Euro with goods NE of ORH

What's the avg total precip in DC for DJF? Probably about 9". Typically an inch or so of that is frozen. Seems like plenty of folks haven't learned their climo, and maybe should STFU.

I know there are some skaters here who like the pond ice. Despite the cold, the big lake can still present some issues. Lake Champlain ice is all it’s cracked up to be

You’re in a bad mood/ place this morning after SB and uncertainty for weekend storm and decided to come in and set the same mood in here to try and upset everyone .You are very good at that I’ll admit.

We should all wishcast.