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decent -PDO in the Fall + global warming probably gives us a 85% chance of an above normal temperature Winter. of course last year broke that

My 5th floor apartment in Douglaston facing west with open sky got so hot with the westward facing wall of the building and now an easterly wind I am running my a/c full blast to try to fully get the heat out. I ran it all night last night and probably will need to run it over night another night to finally get it comfortably cool. Then it warms up with plenty of humidity on Saturday. Unless we sneak a 90 in on Saturday, Sunday, Monday or Tuesday (and it's unlikely since winds will be out of the s-sw) I do not think we see another 90+ day in NYC until the second or more likely the third week of July. WX/PT

This air temp correlation is actually ridiculously high for something that is not over-lapping. 0.5 is 75% chance. Negative PDO is opposite of this map (but both phases are considered in the composite)

More on how the Winter PNA correlates with the PDO the further into the year you go

More on how the Winter PNA correlates with the PDO the further into the year you go This air temp correlation is actually ridiculously high for something that is not overlapping. 0.5 is 75% chance

Yeah.. I was under my 5th severe warning of the year.. nothing close to severe so far. 2x it barely even rained. I think Baltimore does a little better with storms than I do, a few degrees in temp apparently makes a difference. This year it's ended up being more rain up here than lightning..

pathetic bust in dover as well. lightning to the NW originally, with a cloud base visible even in the dark with the city lights. Somehow, it managed to reform to the SE. not even a tenth.

dover force field. THE STORMS WERE RIGHT THERE

Skunked today. Storms north, south,and east.

Track accuracy and cone narrowing from the NHC is probably the most noticeable improvement that has taken place in the past 20 years, take a look at what the cone looked like for Katrina when it entered the Gulf. Every bit of resolution for data matters immensely. Microwave data for track accuracy with numerical modeling has also taken gigantic strides. Losing a reliable ability to place the exact center with high resolution (in the absence of in-situ radar and hurricane hunter data) will certainly have repercussions down the temporal dimension of outputs. Intensity still remains the lowest skill forecast variable, which is no surprise given its stochastic nature. It will get so much worse without as frequent “under the hood” looks at the structure, especially as the observed increase in RI events globally continues.

Beautiful outside 66F with a slight breeze.

I would say that all the analogs from 16-17 on have 2x the weight of one's before it. Recent, non-strong ENSO probably 3x (18-19, 19-20, 22-23, 24-25)

Nice course, used to play there quite a bit.

My lawn, landscaping, and garden are very happy.

One of those pulse ups gave me 0.26" of rain w/ 10-20 mph wind gusts. No lightning.

2025-26 is going to be a snowFULL FREEZE.

Outflow boundary almost here. About to get some withering Iowa sloppy seconds.

Saturday looks toasty on this NAM run

Congratulations, Everyone in the Mid Atlantic. Enjoy this. Stay safe.

So monitoring/predicting rapid intensification is worth nothing? Yeah, no. Intensity forecasting is the more difficult aspect of TC forecasting compared to track.

Story of the past 2 weeks

I’ve never seen lightning like this before. It’s constant.

LWX issued their flood watch based at least partially on the HREF, which is going to end up doing very well highlighting the area of heaviest rain:

63/57…opening windows.