All Activity

maybe this Christmas we'll be ripping severe weather but if we're swallowed by the Walker cell we may not even get any fronts

whole country is a scam

Agreed. Windy when the air temp is 70-75 and above, with sun = yes please

This is just the pre-Christmas forecast.

People in here who complain that "it's too windy here" haven't lived in actually windy places. 10-15 mph is perfect in the summer.

JMA has the current velocity potential and an archive with 5 day to 3 month means. https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_mon_tcc.html

not going to be much south of NYC

Yeah...I guess what I was in part dancing around is whether or not we should expect general product outages. We may go through a "bug" period where modeling gets black out times. Prooobably why they chose August? Since that is the most quiescent time of the year, if you're going to do a huge disruptive product overhaul, down to the software level - which I also don't have a lot of faith is likely to be properly hardship-estimated ... - that makes sense to do it during dog-day doldrums. I've been in several different software capacities over the last 25 years ... I can tell you... when the issue is code-base level, the time estimates are almost always between 2 and 5 times longer in reality then is planned. Any other software engineers in here will know what I am talking about.

may get relatively steined here. Looks like outer Cape has a better shot, and models locking in on DE Maine/NE Mass

This is a great point - you would have to figure it is going to take some time for vendors to make the necessary changes and adjustments needed and I would have to imagine this is not going to be an easy task and this is going to require a ton of OT hours. Now, it's also possible many vendors have already been preparing for this as this has been known for a while but I guess the question is how much work could have been completed in preparation for this?

If modeling is correct certainly no long lasting warmth through June at least

You know it just occurred to me... Think how much work is going to have to go into the Internet technology bases, pan-systemically, for this up-coming August change. All industry reliance - star there and start thinking about 'turning off' all these guidance' I wonder... hm. One way to do it is to leave the other product suite ( old ) as is, while giving a time and chance for the source provider-ship to catch up. Running in parallel might be expensive, but provided a chance for deep, deep product integration to be root-canalled. NAM/MOS web-pages, ... crip filing and FTP automations... Companies that may rely on those automations... hard to know where to begin. Graphics engines? my god. massive, massive overhaul in the wholesale industry. The other way to handle ( if smart ) is to induct Claude or Gemini CODEX AI ...like real fast, and start drafting up whole new web architectures - like head start it. Expedience being the objective. Because in tech parlance, August is in ten minutes from May. When the existing took the last 20+ years of human engineering to create all that product suite and deeply rooted sourcing, and product reliances ..et al - yikes. The whole system can't really just be stopped on a dime because NOAA clicks a mouse to fire up these new tools. I mean what am I missing... ? As an afterthought, you wonder if the vendors may have already been working background with NCEP - perhaps developing against a beta system...

I’m going to miss having a model that could reliably sniff out thermals and CAD. I’ll never forget the coup it scored during the Jan 2025 storm when every model said I’d get several inches and the NAM said enjoy your sleet fest. About 2 hrs in, it went to pingers and never looked back.

Wouldn't be surprised to see some small hailers tomorrow

What’s the over/under for qpf? This seems like a less than ideal setup. It doesn’t even feel humid out rn.

ALWAYS

So our wet Wednesday has morphed into a decaying line of showers zipping through overnight. Just make you appreciate we got anything frozen at all this past winter. 66F

So, we are doing that skipped spring thing then, that sucks.

Yesterday was one of the few sunny/light wind days we’ve had. I want more of those.

I have compiled the climate averages based on the NOAA calculation of Climate Normals for the philly burbs of Chester County PA for a full year with 30 year averages updated every 10 years. The first base period was from 1901-1930 with our most recent being the current climate base of 1991-2020. You can see our warmest base climate normal occurred back in the 1921-1950 and 1931-1960 periods.

Losing the 3k is unfortunate. In the few times looking at the RRFFFSSSS, the 3k was much more "correct". Losing the acuracy of mixing with be a real forcasting crunch.

I have compiled the climate averages based on the NOAA calculation of Climate Normals for the philly burbs of Chester County PA for a full year with 30 year averages updated every 10 years. The first base period was from 1901-1930 with our most recent being the current climate base of 1991-2020. You can see our warmest base climate normal occurred back in the 1921-1950 and 1931-1960 periods.

I have compiled the climate averages based on the NOAA calculation of Climate Normals for the philly burbs of Chester County PA for a full year with 30 year averages updated every 10 years. The first base period was from 1901-1930 with our most recent being the current climate base of 1991-2020. You can see our warmest base climate normal occurred back in the 1921-1950 and 1931-1960 periods.

It better come with the wet or my yard is going to be Arizona by July.

And besides losing the joy of a happy hour NAMing, the NAM is/was the best for mixing lines as we saw last winter. We’re gonna get surprised by pingers.