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NW US trof gets some help from the East-based -NAO. As you said, without any sort of a block we would be toast with that PAC look.

Something has been brewing on all the LR ops between Dec 28-Jan 2 period for a few days now as blocking gets going. Sniffing something out.

6z Gfs at 318hrs is best case scenario with this pattern.

That was a decent run. But I have no idea how good it is.

If there is a lot of rain then no big deal. But it’s a real strong LLJ during daytime.

Oh yeah, that'll totally happen

Pretty damn excited

Zzzzzzzz

are we still doing 65 on Christmas?

AIGFS now on TT looked a bit snowier than the 6z GFS overall

Just gunna' post that the 6z Gfs has a couple of threats and the run hasn't ended. I think as the operational models detect that block, we'll start to see threats showing up along the cold air boundary.

GFS showing some mixed precip possible for the northers heading into Christmas Day.

Meanwhile, could really blow tomorrow.

Got to watch Christmas Day too. Models are waffling on timing.

Tuesday snow

6z GFS back to saving Christmas

Can we just get this 948mb low to verify

Still trending on the 00z.

0z AIGFS has 2 snow threats. One starting at 210hrs: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025121800&fh=210 The other threat starting at 288hrs: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025121800&fh=288 Unfortunately, neither Tropical Tidbits nor Pivotal have pretty surface maps showing snow, only precip. But if you use those TT links and look at Pivotal 850, 925 and surface temps, it's snow, or rain to snow depending on exact location.

In a word...blocking. See JI's post above.

0z euro is acceptable

The Euro bombs Northern half of NC and most of Virginia with a monster New Years snow, due to a clipper that rains on us and goes full Miller B on them, after it develops off the coast it spins in place giving them a mega storm. The GFS looks like it may have been loading up to send something our way by the 3rd. Too far out to take seriously of course, but possibly a sign that the NAO is working a bit and use getting scraps while east of the Apps would fit in with the pattern we've seen as far as precip goes.

Trash night too

Heads up, there's black ice out there right now. Be wary on the roads.

Thought the same last night when it was 29°.