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If GFS is right which it will snow starts Sunday around 1PM, ends Monday around 6PM that's a blizzy!

Gfs just showing what euro ai had like 3 days ago. Gfs just running on old data haha

Hope the euro trends to this just so all the euro huggers are speechless

Yeah I’m just talking the Cape

Yea. You would as you've had your fair share of 18+ the past 10yrs. Sucks out here being close but no cigar to a biggie again…

Dc getting more snow than Frederick makes this even more believable. I’m in.

I’m still looking for any appreciable snowfall, more than 10 inches that has occurred during a weak La Niña with the MJO in phase 4. Oh and very little cold air to work with.

GFS just straight up doubling down and actually increasing amounts is wild. We are literally inside of 80hrs and right now GFS is going down with its ship.

Canadian looks nothing like the GFS (which we could've guessed based on the RGEM).

The depiction from GFS has been pretty steadfast across quite a lot of runs.

I give it a one in ten chance but i'll take those odds.

Thats OK sir. I'm not a mod- but in the interest of the majority of posters and readers- asked for a Chester County "bicker" thread to be created a while back. To me- its unreadable except for 2 or 3 posters...(and as the saying goes: sooner or later in wrestling with a pig- you realize the pig likes it.)

I'll be checking in here on Monday morning after shoveling my 30 inches of GFS digital snow

I think a whiff is far more likely than that occurring Unlike other changes that could happen, that would require a pretty significant change in the way things are situated

Certainly in the MA

This is such a cruel, thankless, ruthless hobby.

We will be cursing it in 6 hours when it shows sprinkles and 37 degrees.

I mean knowing the gfs kinda expected it from this awful model. All the other models move east and of course gfs moves west.

40” at 10:1 for DC is lol

Its been persistent nailing DC.

The AI GFS nudging a good bit West is, at the very least somewhat encouraging? It and its physics-based counterpart aren't exactly lockstep, and the AI's shift wasnt minute like it tends to be.

I know it's the GFS, but how many of you secretly think we have a chance at this?.

Final Call for Friday-Saturday Mess Mixed Bag Likely Across The Region A storm system streaking east-northeast from the plains will impact the area beginning on Friday and into at least the early portion of Saturday. Whereas vast majority of storms this season have featured primarily snowfall given the persistently cold temperatures, the track of this system is likely to complicate the forecast concerning precipitation type across the region. Synoptic Overview The next system slated to affect the region ejects from the Pacific trough out into the plains by early on Friday. It begins to weaken as it approaches the northeast due to the sharing influence of the compressed height field between the polar vortex/Hudson Bay block dyad to the north, and the increasing southeastern heights in response to the parent trough out west. As the system continues to weaken, it is eventually forced to redevelop off shore to the southeast as it encounters the confluence flow around the vortex in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes, which may act to prolong snowshoers and advect in colder air during the day on Saturday. Expected Storm Evolution: Light rain will break out over southwest portions of Connecticut by the midday hour. Mixed precipitation will overspeed the balance of the region throughout the afternoon, with snow/sleet being the predominate precipitation type roughly north of the Mass pike, and a sleet rain mixture points south. While evaporative cooling may result in a brief period of snowfall over northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and southeastern Mass, accumulations should be very light as precipitation will rapidly transition to sleet and rain as the decaying mid level low triggers a southwesterly flow and warm advection aloft as it passes though central New England. A brief period of icing over the higher train is possible, however, this should not pose a serious hazard. Accumulating snow should continue well into the evening north of the pike and especially route 2 into the mid portion of the evening, with primarily sleet between the pike and the I 84 and rainfall points south. Precipitation will taper off across western New England by midnight with a mixed bag continuing east, as redevelopment begins to occur off of the coast. While this redevelopment will occur too late to prevent the transition to sleet and rain that will prohibit a heavier snowfall accumulation across the area, it will perhaps prolong nuisance snow showers during the day on Saturday, as colder air is drawn in on a northeast flow, from the vortex over the Canadian Maritimes. While these snow showers should not result in much in the way of accumulation during the day on Saturday, some icy spots are possible where refreezing takes place due to colder air being advected in on northeast flow around the developing low offshore. Final Call First Call Issued Tuesday, February 17th

This article speaks more about skill of AI models in medium range (beyond day 5), but I believe same applies in the 3-4 day range - AIFS ensemble has superior skill to EPS and other physics-based ensembles. AI-GEFS has superior skill to GEFS but isn't as skillful as AIFS ensemble. https://x.com/Brady_Wx/status/2021333729088585882 Given that GEFS and GEPS are closer than the EPS to AIFS ensemble (as well as AI-GEFS) in terms of more amplified trough initially over Ohio Valley/Great Lakes with more downstream ridging, and deeper upper low closer to the mid-Atlantic coast, I would weight them more than EPS in this setup. All models shifted in that direction (when compared to yesterday's 0z run) after ingesting a new batch of upper air data from recon. It appears to me that the EPS under-amplification bias may be at play here and it is most likely playing catch-up here, like the AI summary that Sacrus posted intimated happens sometimes in NE US winter storms.

Sorry my fault