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Wrong side of the 'haves/have nots' here this time. Would have hurt more if it was 25 degrees in Feb. A few sprinkles around 3 pm and again around dusk. Not even enough to dampen objects. Currently 57.3/55.3.

definitelyt making up for the 14 wet wknds in a row

Wait for real?

Yawn

I suggest you guys read though some of these...especially the seasonal guys. https://simonleewx.com/2023/08/09/north-american-weather-regimes-a-summary-so-far/#:~:text=The regimes data are available on Zenodo.,with unusually warm conditions across North America I know Bluewave and some others already have. I'm going to go through these before I begin my seasonal work next month.

Lost confidence in any meaningful rain near NYS/NJ border and even elsewhere. Pattern has not induced my expectations this morning in NJ/LI. Could be zero up here in far nw NJ/se NYS unless something comes in off the ocean but right now, just not seeing it. Modeling seems too heavy on our northern fringe I80 northward but have my fingers crossed something gets going by early afternoon.

It's a possibility this year-

Low of 57.6F in Lanco. 0.39" of much needed rain.

Yea, that is about is quickly as you will ever see it, so agreed.

There’s a large section east of the MS that is under drought conditions. There’s a large scale pattern that has to change…it hasn’t just been bad luck. But yeah, it’s only September.

It’s not doing a whole lot…yeah there’s a little surface condensation, but it barely gets into the ground. On dense fog nights where we saturate early, at best I get a 0.01” tip of the black rain gauge. Maybe it helps your seed on the surface germinate, but that’s about it. You had some decent rains recently too so you’re in a different boat than me. The 6” soil moisture here is back to the 90-100cb range after “moistening” up to 70-80cb a week ago. I’ll probably start hitting unchartered territory in the next week or two.

Oh look, the sun is out again. Love this weather, but I was jonesing for an overcast, rainy day. Next time

Having this happen two falls in a row makes me think something might have changed at least for the near term precipitation around here. But it has only been a year and things can flip back to wetter again. This top down warming and drying from Canada is something new for us though.

.27 rain in Marysville overnight.

I will give the EPS weeklies credit for starting to pick up on March 2012 record warmth during mid-February. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2012/02/16/ecmwf-weekly-maps/

It looks like the places to the nw thought to get screwed are actually the jackpot. Reminds me of a normal winter lol. I'm glad the desert regions are getting nailed. We definitely didn't need that band over my area this morning.

https://phys.org/news/2025-09-climate-deaths-europe-summer.html

CAG system late September to early October timeframe would be a very likely scenario.

0.8” so far. Huge win for Euro AI. Locked in from 7-8 days out and didn’t waver. Took the physics based models to the woodshed.

With 0.15* I have more rain than I've had since 8/21. If I can get to 0.58" then it would equal my total since July 21st. The drought hammer looks to continue putting its foot on our neck through September Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Been absolutely dry as a bone in NNE. Might see extreme drought posted soon. Selfishly for the winter I want that to continue (heavy precip there means rain here 99% of the time) but it’s sorely needed.

Here's hoping the tables on the dry weather get turned in time for winter.

Portions of the Northeast could see more drought expansion with the update tomorrow.

A 2007-08 type disaster would be another example. I’m sure it’s due and Nina seasons make them more likely but that was pure pain for the I-80 corridor with the exception of 2/22/08 (surprise decent SWFE). I know you would do an Ironman in the nude for that winter again.

If we have another winter where there’s repeated suppressed to hell storms and cirrus IMBY I’ll just have to laugh. Hopefully there can be some outcome where the South can be happy and get snow and here but it’s highly unlikely.