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Tomorrow through Friday will see highs mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Another brief push of cold air could arrive to start the weekend. Overall, temperatures will likely remain generally below normal through Saturday. Sunday could turn briefly milder before another cool air mass moves into the region. Some showers are possible on Sunday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.55°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -7.13 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.861 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.4° (0.6° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I wouldn't be so sure about +PDO in 2026, this is what we've seen so far this decade, which is way more extreme than any decade on record: October 2025 -2.40 September 2025 -2.33 August 2025 -3.20 July 2025 -4.16 June 2025 -2.62 May 2025 -1.66 April 2025 -1.15 March 2025 -1.12 February 2025 -1.40 January 2025 -1.28 December 2024 -2.03 November 2024 -3.13 October 2024 -3.80 September 2024 -3.56 August 2024 -2.91 July 2024 -3.00 June 2024 -3.15 May 2024 -2.98 April 2024 -2.11 March 2024 -1.52 February 2024 -1.33 January 2024 -1.57 December 2023 -1.66 November 2023 -1.79 October 2023 -2.23 September 2023 -2.99 August 2023 -2.47 July 2023 -2.52 June 2023 -2.53 May 2023 -2.42 April 2023 -3.07 March 2023 -2.45 February 2023 -1.65 January 2023 -1.24 December 2022 -2.21 November 2022 -2.41 October 2022 -1.81 September 2022 -2.29 August 2022 -2.38 July 2022 -2.64 June 2022 -1.32 May 2022 -2.24 April 2022 -2.09 March 2022 -1.67 February 2022 -1.91 January 2022 -2.40 December 2021 -2.71 November 2021 -2.75 October 2021 -3.13 September 2021 -1.96 August 2021 -0.95 July 2021 -2.00 June 2021 -1.82 May 2021 -2.04 April 2021 -1.84 March 2021 -1.67 February 2021 -1.09 January 2021 -0.61 December 2020 -0.99 November 2020 -1.58 October 2020 -0.62 September 2020 -1.04 August 2020 -1.33 July 2020 -0.92 June 2020 -0.75 May 2020 -0.53 April 2020 -1.32 March 2020 -1.75 February 2020 -1.48 January 2020 -1.41 Even seasonal models have a -PDO next Winter, despite El Nino.. but it's far out so skill is low.

Nah it’s all good. I do find it interesting. Nobody should feel like they should avoid posting.

Do not fear, guys! This year isn't a shut the blinds look. Plus, if all else fails, we have the 26-27 +PDO Nino open the blinds look!

I mean 52 vs 48 won’t do much. But even down at my parents the oaks have much less leaves. He must be nuking his soil lol.

I feel so bad for all the times I tooled on him over the years. He really was a big part of my TV weather experience growing up. RIP Geoff.

Problem really is that we need a big NE N. Pacific low pressure, major negative anomaly at 500mb, and we haven't really had that since the 15-16 Strong Nino. I think maybe 1 or 2 anomalous times of only a few weeks in the Winter since then, but that's it. It's really a drought - actually the Feb-March N. Pacific -PNA recently broke the previous record for a 8-year consecutive period by +140%. We've been needing a big N. Pacific pattern change. We want the jet stream to be stopped up, and a big part of that is NE N. Pacific low pressure. It's not climate change, unless you are saying CC is putting more High pressure in the north pacific ocean. It's been a Hadley Cell - La Nina pattern since 16-17 (but to a lesser extent since 98-99).

No thread for Geoff Fox?

Yup…it’s all about trade offs.

Ha, this is the same, just four months later. The 60/58 and rain in August while you are 84/78 on top of an Augusta National lawn is finally paying off.

Clear skies but not happenin down here yet. Milky way looks cool tho lol

Well most are tracking dews and severe while the Greens are 50’s with light rain lol

Brian, I just saw this post. Sorry. I would have not been able to have helped you anyhow, as i don't know any rehab people. I hate to see animals suffer. Last month I had to drive to PA and on the interstate a hawk flew right in front of the car into the grill. I still think about that.

I get it, but let's try to keep the vibes positive this winter, at least it is not a shut the blinds look....maybe we will get lucky...

Haha it’s really hard to post about interesting weather on here when others aren’t getting it. Nobody cares when it’s rain in July every afternoon lol.

Historically I don’t disagree. But we’ve said this quite a few times over the last 10 years and it seems our “hit rate” has become pretty low in a more zonal suppressed “big bowl” pattern also, to the point maybe it’s better to just take our chances on the big hit anymore. But since we don’t control what we get it doesn’t matter. Yea I’d take a high chance if getting some moderate 3-5” type events over a very low chance at a 10”+ but it doesn’t seem to be that way anymore. We seem to waste the “high probability” looks just as often as the big hit ones lately.

Had flurries on and off all day, now steady light snow. First plow of the season on my driveway today! Interesting to see how warm the ground still is though, some of the snow was melting from below - especially in some spots.

Yup... cooked...although later in the night chance it could get better. Still, cloudy and weaker amd not aligned ideally

If I had to guess it’s the daytime highs . 10 freezes to 1. And living in a windy coastal area. Something is wrong

He might blog about it

Man trees.

And it looks like that . I’ll be doing final lawn cleanup this weekend. They’re bare. Something is very wrong there . Not sure what . But something

He’s had 10 more freezes than you.

Anyone have a link for space weather indices? I lost mine apparently.

Agreed. Let's lock in with light to mod.ecent one after the other. Don't blow a good pattern on one big storm that melts off in a few days, especially leading into Christmas.