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Trend this month is warmer....hope it's wrong.

Interesting + PNA phase might happen

Will, thanks for posting. Unfortunately, WB CFS temp. maps have major algo flaws and thus I rarely post them. Example: they usually have a major cold spot over S Lake Michigan and a major warm spot over N L. Mich & vicinity just 250 miles to the N! Also, they tend to have too much contrast between well inland areas of the E 1/2 of the US (too cold) and the much warmer near E coast (often too warm). Related to this, WB shows at/near record cold Feb/Mar of -5 to -7C (and even vs the colder 1981-2010 climo!) in those areas with the 3rd-6th shades of green based on the means of 30 days of runs. The CFSv2 site shows nothing of the sort: examples for Feb: 1) Columbus, GA, in Feb is ~-3.5C vs 1991-2020 for the avg of the 3 maps below from the CFSv2 site, itself, whereas WB has them ~-5C vs the colder 1981-2010 or ~2C/3.6F too cold (1991-2020 is 0.5C warmer than 1981-2010). 2) At the same time, the NC/VA border on E coast in Feb is ~-1.5C vs 1991-2020 on CFSv2 compared to NN on WB vs the colder 1981-2010 meaning WB is ~1C too warm 8/6-15: 8/16-25: 8/26-9/4:

We are entering a dry period during the next 7 days, unless the Thursday system delivers which is unlikely at this time. At least we are losing solar heating and the days are getting shorter.

The cruel irony of 23-24 is that when it snowed, it was from northern stream systems squeezed under the canadian block at a time when the STJ took a break. When the STJ was active, it was rain every time. Cape Breton did get buried under 5 feet of snow in one storm thanks to the STJ, so at least there’s that.

this dosent look that much different from the euro seasonal for 23-24 and that was a disaster but on paper it looked good. I see a lot of people on twitter in England are super excited because they say this shows a very strong -NAO signtature but i would like that red further north

Refreshing dew points are here!

This was the light show in the clouds before I got that shot: https://www.facebook.com/reel/1085227447341802

Yep nice stj train. How do you know it shows 10 inches ? People need to stop making statements. 1 storm can do wonders.

My God, the GFS.

Ripe for Miller As?

Gotcha Jeff the spc now has almost all of middle TN and east TN in marginal risk and slight risk for northern portion of east TN for 5-15% damaging winds and 5% hail also ikr also can’t forget about all of that and the iss haven’t seen anything about the northern lights or anything else yet .

Just got power back from the storm that came thru yesterday around 6 pm. Had some pea to 1/2" sized hail, a 39 mph gust and 0.32" here, but LOTS of damage pics coming in on facebook. Trees down, powerlines down and several roofs and sheds either blown over/off or damaged. Currently have thunder/lightning and light rain from a dying line moving thru from WV, temp 68.8/66.9 at 10:30 am. Looking at Dominion's outage map, still 800+ without power in the county.

He and they live and hopefully multiply. Need some damage in the region. Hopefully they can team up in the same year with the gypsies

Just looked at the euro monthlies, no big surprises. Very canonical east based nino

Looks very much canonical east based nino. Will be interesting to see how the -pdo base state interacts with it.

I live in a very swampy area myself so once dusk hits, I know 9 times out of 10 there will be skeeters just randomly buzzing around and a few minutes later, packs of voracious bats pursuing them. At least they’re slowing down a bit now but I’ve had a few bad bites on my shoulders and leg in just the last week alone.

87/72 yesterday. Backdoor “cool” front off Lake Superior made its way down here in the afternoon and knocked down the dew point. Pretty uncommon to get lake influence here.