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I hope (and believe) you're right. CTP is seeing something different because they have me in the 50s on Christmas day.

I’d love to verify the gfs OP here. Borderline warning. Everything else is kind of mediocre

NYC needs 0.2 to go above 3 inches, Kalshi odds only 45 percent for December. Seems low to me

I was cautiously optimistic this morning thst we may actually be moving toward a halfway decent event, and then of course the euro comes out and looks mediocre. itll nail this after being horrible the past two events

The day after looks scorching. I wonder if we can hit 70-75.

1-2 here on euro. Meh

ECM has it too .5-1.5"

Like most people that own pay sites,they just are click baits so you subscribe

And I like the EuroA1

If we can get 3" out my way, that would put me around 15" for the season. Lake has been frozen, and the young guys have been playing hockey for at least a week. Not a bad start to winter.

Truly great news to me. Would take 50 and rain over 40 and sun. At toast on Christmas.

Small chance of snow on the 23rd When will it snow it would be great to watch snow falling two days before Christmas- 2am-8am the same time every single time

ya Euro op and AIFS are a solid 1-3/2-4" area wide.. Not as juiced as 6z or GFS..

That might not be too bad up here. I think that’s the pattern we had was it in 2023? We ended up with close to 100 inches here but with a lot of wet, heavy storms where we were right on the edge and you were raining down south

12z Euro Op is similar

Gfs / Icon seem to have the better idea overall . Makes sense

Loading early Tuesday now, it's colder and SE, maybe a hair less amped..

But if I close the shades, then won’t I be unable to look at the 2 to 4 inches of snow that will fall on Tuesday?

Probably for him

The warmth over Central US is very impressive, akin to the very warm Christmas we had here in December 2014 and December 2015. This is one of the few times where you would want a pacific jet extension to force storms into the west, which will roll the ridge through the east US and then maybe we can reset from there. But until that omega ridge subsides over Central US, CONUS is almost completely void of cold and snow. Horrendous

WB isn’t loading, good for all? Same as 6z?

Ya AIFS ticked SE then IVT into Maine

12z Euro looks good.

This would be the death knells for Winter 2025-2026. Prime time when temps are the coldest, and there is a trough in west Canada and a dip in the jet stream across west/central US, and a ridge over east US. And remember, this is a smoothed ensemble mean. Once we get closer to the date, it won't be as smoothed and the differences between the trough in the west and the ridge in the east would likely be much greater. While the -NAO continues to improve, all other teleconnections remain where we don't want it, including a deepening -PNA. Without help from the PNA and the pacific, the -NAO will be almost meaningless

Yeah PWM love there. Still like the look here overall.