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06z HRRR and its still snowing in ENC

Below is for all mountain counties. GSP has upped it again. My current temp is 17.1. It has been a long time since I have been in the teens the morning of a snow storm. WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...The mountains of North Carolina. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday.

I’m right here.

I guess it makes sense to a weather weenie but this is way too much for the general public that still don’t even know the difference between a watch and warning.

Still here just trying to figure out what im going to do with all this snow. .

Thanks to @Holston_River_Rambler I'm just chillin out to some old school stuff. Mrs. Pipe doesn't care for the music though. (I love it)

Must be the sun spots or is it just cold here and no where else on the planet. It’s a balancing act has to be well above normal somewhere have not had the time to see where.

LOL - facts aren't opinions. It consistently IS the best model. That's an objective fact backed by years of study and data collected and analyzed by people who gace forgotten more about weather than you or I will ever know. Go look it up. Educate yourself a little. Does that mean it's ALWAYS right? Of course not. Hopefully you're able to grasp that distinction - but at this point I have some doubts. And if your "opinion" is based on nothing more than vibes and nonsense, as yours happens to be in this case, it's connection to "the truth" is about as tenuous as your understanding of how to assess weather models. You can have the "opinion" that the earth is flat - that is absolutely your right. But you'd still be wrong. Comically so. Just as you are here.

Where is everyone? Back in my day, we’d model watch and post all night, then go straight into work without any sleep.

They are going to be wrong in my opinion . i just can’t see how we don’t end up with some backfill once this thing hits the coast. with the winds expected I could easily see a 1 to 2 inch band hit the area at some point.. If this slides even more south then yeah maybe we get nothing but right now I’m still in the 3-6 boat for RVA

HRRR finally on board. .

Another historical note: around this time in 1947 (when there was a major winter storm in Wisconsin per the daily roundup above), England was being plunged into a deep freeze that lasted six weeks and produced the coldest February on record. Constant sea effect snowfalls in addition to a few synoptic scale storms buried the Midlands in several feet of snow and stopped train and road travel. It was already a time of rationing and hardship as England recovered from the recent war, but the situation got worse because of the frigid unseasonable weather. The cold spell ended abruptly in mid-March followed by a severe flood from snow melt and rain. The Trent and Ouse Rivers draining the Midlands eastward went well over their banks. The rest of the year 1947 produced many warm weather records in England, and has more daily warm records than any other year as well as being in the top ten for cold records. The next severe winters in 1955 and 1956 were nowhere near as bad, but 1962-63 produced almost the same outcomes, as did Nov-Dec 2010 but by then the nation had better infrastructure in place to deal with heavy snowfalls and freezing temperatures.

13-14 or 14-15? I remember both being cold winters but I don’t think either had the intensity or longevity of this winter. I mean it’s looking likely we see - monthly departures all 3 core winter months, when was the last time that happened?!

Nice, what is your preferred blend of models or human logic that drove you to this prediction if you don't mind me asking?

Yep. When it comes to deep pow on top of catastrophic ice in Washington DC, YOU BETTER BELIEVE I am only 5 years old. And, I'm damn PROUD of the fact. And I still want 30 inches of powder snow on top of that glacier in the DMV. You guys are tough. You'll love it. I STILL worship snow to the total exclusion of everything else and everybody else. And I pray to the snow gods for deep snow right on top of that Washington DC Glacier!

This is my snowfall forecast map and cities Jefferson City: 4”-6”+ Morristown: 4”-7”+ Knoxville (downtown; East & South): 3”-5” Newport: 4”-7” + Kingsport: 3.5”-6” Greenville: 4”-7”+ Baneberry: 4”-7”+ White Pine: 4”-7”+ Mt. LeConte (including Sunday NW flow mnt snowfall): 12”-16”+ Sevierville: 5”-7”+ Pitman Center: 6”-8”+ Cosby (in the actual town near foothills pkwy; not at Wilton Springs): 5”-8”+ Tazewell: 3”-5.5” Johnson City: 5”-8” + Maryville: 3.5”-6” Roan Mountain (including Sunday NW flow mnt snowfall): 10”-16”+ Sweetwater: 3”-5” Athens: 3”-5” Chattanooga: 2”-4” Crossville: 3”-4” -Clinton, Halls, Powell, & Karns: 2”-4” (less than east and south Knox County) -Dandridge: 4”-7”+ -Chestnut Hill: 4”-7”+ -White Pine, Baneberry, Bybee: 5”-7”+ (enhanced accumulation here) -Russellville: 4.5”-6” -Mohawk, Mosheim, & Midway (Greene County): 5”-8” -Bristol (not counting Saturday night & Sunday snow showers): 4”-5.5” -Parrottsville (Cocke County): 5”-7”+

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph. * WHERE...Northeast Georgia, the foothills and Piedmont of North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and may produce isolated power outages due to the weight of the snow on tree limbs and power lines. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to rapidly stick to roads and other surfaces due to temperatures in the 20s. Travel conditions could deteriorate rapidly as early as Friday evening. Very gusty winds on Saturday could result in areas of blowing snow, causing very poor visibility.

Also, my point forecast for Lancaster just updated to 100% chance of snow on Saturday with Heavy Snow possible. It's go time.

Loudon added to wsw 2-4 inches

I am out on the Ledge again just because DC is not gonna get deep powder snow on top of the Glacier. Too bad the Reaper is retired. Damn. And, Ji is correct on the model disco thread. Sure I'm 12. I am always a KID when it comes to snow, ESPECIALLY snow on top of solid ICE! I am STILL OBSESSED WITH ICE AGE CONDITIONS IN Washington DC! As long as it is not in Buda. I will NEVER grow the fuck up. I have not learned. I am gonna die someday without understanding, still worshipping ice and snow. Snow and ice are God, not g-d. I am un-repentant and I will always be un-repentant. I will DIE that way too. Guaranteed. Even tho I live in South Texas! I'm not 12. I'm 5, and I'm DAMN PROUD OF IT.

Winter Storm Warning is up for Rabun County, Clayton, GA.

Winter Storm Warnings for Charleston is such a treat to see.

For those who might be interested, here’s my latest projections for 25 select locations along the east coast: https://x.com/tbrite89/status/2017125164824100896

Well the friggin' NBM finally came back to earth once the SREFs tanked, but it's time lagged, so it won't die for at least another model cycle.

Wilmington has historically averaged 1.6” yearly dating back to 1870. That said, most years we see nothing, so it’s rare to even get the climatological average from one storm. The last time Wilmington saw a 6” accumulation was during the Christmas blizzard of 1989 (a little over 36 years ago)!