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The 18z GFS(and GFS in general) has been trying to cook something up. As we approach shoulder season, it is a vastly more competitive as a model.

Exactly. Some winters you know its over by the 3rd week in January. This has been steady -AO and ridging in the NAO....and those ingredients are exactly what lead to late surprises and long cold dreary March and early Aprils.

Fantastic Event Memory; Dang!!

Problem though was that they stayed over the same areas all winter. Nice to finally see clippers again, but maybe next time we can spread them out a little more lol.

Sorry, it was that bad? I 'm glad you're on your way. Having VVS never makes things any less complicated.

Has anyone mentioned sun angle yet? Because she’s here .

Its kind of endearing I think

No one is forcing you to read it

Yeah Jan-Mar was snowy IMBY

They were cold…I was a teenager during the 80’s…And while they were consistently cold, the snow sucked 85-90% of the time. There were a few big ones scattered in there, but it was underwhelming most of the time. Mixing was very common. It was like pulling teeth to get a pure snow event during that decade. 1-3” and 2-4” were very common. 3-6” was a good storm. And the beloved 4-8” was a biggy. of course there was the April Blizzard of 82 which was a monster, and Feb of 83 was big. And 1984 was a decent snow winter. Mid March of 84 had a good 8-10” storm. And then a couple weeks later in late March of 84 there was a pretty big late season snow storm around the 30-31st, which was pretty dam good for that decade. And as Will said…they were consistently BN. So it just goes to show how this winter has been dam cold.

Great Lakes ice coverage peaked at 54.8% this week. After a near average winter in 2024-25, this winter ice coverage is solidly above the historical average around 40%. Superior is now half covered, with Erie nearly 100% covered. I went down to a park this afternoon where the Detroit River turns into Lake Erie. The ice is said to be 12-28" thick. Seeing an ice covered Erie is beautiful, even though that stops its Lake snow machine. https://bridgemi.com/michigan-environment-watch/ice-grips-great-lakes-with-erie-nearly-fully-covered/

Back in Minnesota, the thaw is on. Full sun and mid 40s today was awesome. Sad seeing these old historic farmsteads turn into suburbs, but such is the pace of progress

Even if this one mostly misses us, there should be more chances as the month goes on.

Pretty sick hour on radar. animated.mov

18z Euro AI & AI EPS both keep hope alive for southern PA as well.

Not really. Elevation only helps so much. You have to go 100 miles south of us to even feel it.

At this point I just pray for the dryness to stop. I don't care of it's rain, I just want 5-10" of qpf Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Went to Lake Erie Metropark late this afternoon. Frozen Lake Erie is a beautiful scene. Great Lakes ice coverage peaked at 54.8% this week. After a near average winter in 2024-25, this winter ice coverage is solidly above the historical average around 40%. Superior is now half covered, with Erie nearly 100% covered. The Erie ice is 12-28" thick near the Detroit River. https://bridgemi.com/michigan-environment-watch/ice-grips-great-lakes-with-erie-nearly-fully-covered/

I like where that 540 line is

Just like anything else in this world. Rush Rush Rush. I remember the days when we made threat threads two days or less before a threat.

And the system won't be occluded for another 2-3 days

11 inches in 1 hr in Newry where I was

Feb 5, 2001 was an incredible storm for its intense snowfall rates. Almost all of that fell in under 12 hours.

18z Euro keeps the hope alive for the Sunday chance for southern PA.

It isn't over ...til it's over!