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It’s funny because this upcoming possibility was showing on models last Wednesday or Thursday, then sort of declined over the next couple of days, only to come back yesterday

We’re in a time where an inch is a win. I hate this hobby and I’m clearly bitter

We should remove “weak” from the thread title

Good trends on 500 mb energy. Almost went neutral this run.

Please melt it all away. It’s nasty looking now.

I mean all said and done as modeled this will end up a solid month block of below normal to very below normal, in the heart of winter. We only capitalized on one major storm but it was a good storm, surprisingly for all despite concerns about NYC / CNJ to me. This next arctic blast looks intense and I’m going to enjoy it one last time, get our fireplace going and make hot chocolate with my wife from scratch. If after we go fully mild through the last two weeks of Feb, nobody can say this wasn’t a fascinating winter that altered the crappy tempo of the 2020’s. I got my money’s worth even if it wasn’t a prolific snowfall season. Still chipping my parents out of their encased ice palace in Seaside too, lol - I’m going to need an oil change and 120k service on my body soon.

Finally got a good Snow storm after last year’s heartbreak in CLT. I guess if it ever snows in November here it means you’re gonna get 11 inches storm in Jan or February. I can’t wait for the next big dog snow storm in 15 years.

Even if it doesn't snow again, this winter has passed 56 other winters for total snowfall (at 21.1" NYC). If it snows 3 more inches it will pass another eleven. If it snows another 6" it will pass a total of 80 (of 158) and be close to passing several more. My stats include a higher value for 1868-69 than just the snow measured Jan 1 to Apr 1869 as Dec 1868 was a cold month with coastal lows indicated on weather charts, so I assumed that winter made it to around 35" ... the median value for all winters is a bit lower than the mean by about one inch. Don could confirm this but I believe this winter could be ahead of 1887-88 at this point of the winter severity index. It probably will stay ahead for a while but I don't like its chances during March.

Obviously very early, but what are your thoughts on March Don? I really hate to disagree with Ray because him and I have basically agreed on almost everything since November, but as of right now, I just don’t see more solidly below normal cold for March, which would make it 5 months in a row. While I’m certainly on board for a colder than normal February, as of today, I just don’t see a persistent cold onslaught into the east for a 5th month in a row (March)….we are extremely lucky to have seen the last 4 months do that during a -ENSO/Nina in this new climate era. The last -ENSO/Nina winter that did it was 30 years ago (1995-96). To be clear, I’m NOT suggesting it isn’t possible. What say you?

27.5 here

Honestly wouldn't rule that out at some point during the month, based on recent trends.

Somewhere under that ice is my oyster farm. Hope they are sleeping well. .

The AI models have performed really well this winter IMO, especially synoptically. They vary run-to-run a lot less than their parent physics-based models. It's becoming less likely for a surprise snowstorm to appear inside 7 days. That's a good thing for forecast accuracy, but a discouraging thing when the forecast looks unfavorable.

Im gonna be on an island, but i HOPE this next minor event trends NW away from Charlotte so 85 north over to Wake get the snow and CLT just rains. I need a break. Run it back in two weeks.

Temperatures have begun to moderate. In New York City, the temperature broke above freezing for the first time since January 23. That was the longest such stretch since Winter 2017-2018. Tomorrow and Wednesday will likely see highs in the lower to perhaps middle 30s. A few flurries are possible on Wednesday as a weak system drags a cold front across the region. Colder air will then return on Thursday. An even stronger surge of Arctic air could arrive for the weekend, possibly accompanied by some snow flurries or snow showers. The persistent and often severely cold pattern could break near February 10th. Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around January 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +24.02 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.066 today.

18z GEFS solid again with a slight uptick

Man it got warm today. Needed to put the a/c on in this torch

Usually about 8 PM. .

With mid to upper 30s tomorrow we need a refresher before the next, maybe final, blast of cold for awhile. An inch would be incredible(sadly lol).

High today was 35.2

For tomorrow evening into Wednesday… Unless that low pressure develops like some of the models are showing and gets decently strong, there's no way that weak sauce is going to get over the mountains, to be anything more than some pithy snow showers or rain showers possibly for Richmond, because rates will be so poor. Highly unlikely we see any good snow out of this.

Sun angle season is upon us

Back to 31 off a high of 34.

I'm rolling with the ARW. Gimmie another bourbon. Might go Panasonic. Does it have an 18z run?