All Activity
- Past hour
-
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
-
Over 1.5” since Wednesday evening
-
maybe the wet nino pattern is finally arriving
-
yes the rain should be mostly over by Monday but if you are implying this will end the drought - think again Upton only going for less than 3 inches overall more south than north AFD from KOKX
-
-
Another round came through. Same old story. Storms broke up a few miles away, and reformed miles after me. I'm sure at some point the next week, we should actually get something.
-
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We are +0.58 on today’s RONI (OISST) The CRW RONI is slightly warmer at +0.65C -
Finally - no complaints on this round - much needed and appreciated steady rain underway in Fallston.
-
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I'd be careful going extreme on RONI Super Nino snowman19, we are little behind at this time of the year. Only 1991 had a May RONI of +0.5 and become Super but that was the lowest, the average per Super event later in the year was +0.8/yr in May. I think we are around 0.4-0.5, which is last place I think. -
0.03 here lol The grass/clover mixture I planted last Fall is definitely shallow rooted. Given the paltry rainfall this Spring, that shit will definitely burn to hell by mid to late June unless something changes dramatically in the next couple weeks. Right around an inch for May so far and 1.4" in April doesnt cut it.
-
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Voyager replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
-
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The CDC Daily climate composites page hasn't been working so I can't do exact measurements on the data is was based on, but the SSTA on Tropical Tidbits looks about Neutral so far, close to 0.0. -
0.15" today. Also the "event" total lol. Looking at guidance, probably a half to maybe an inch total through Sunday. I'll take the low end of that. That wont do much for the dryness here. Really need a 2" soaker.
-
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
-
.30” so far for today. My event total is 1.32”. It is gloomy and cool but I just keep saying we need the rain, we really need the rain. I would like to see it space itself out but will take what we can get.
-
Steady drizz and showers all day in silver spring. Maybe a half inch by now? Can't complain, need it.
- Today
-
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Mount Joy Snowman replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Soooooo glad I just got a mow in. The rain started right as i was finishing up. Not sure when I would have been able to do it otherwise and it would have been borderline unmanageable ha. -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
@Stormchaserchuck1 How's the May NAO index off Newoundland looking so far if you don't mind me asking? -
Had an inch up here in Hanover, with the next round underway. Nws has us totaling around 2" +/- thru Sunday. Since I hate mowing...this sux. But we do need the rain. The lake at Codoras State Park is at least 5' BN.
-
Sunday is the real dumpster fire. Saturday is tolerable, temps and clouds suck but at least my FIL won't be grilling with an umbrella. Monday PM we hit 70-75 with some breaks of sun. Not great but not a complete disaster.
-
Radar trend looks good for central and northern MD and spotty at best down here. My county went into this at just 9.2" since Jan 1 for a departure of -7.3. Look at those soil moistures (20-40% is what you want)
-
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Even the new RONI projections are up to +3C now: ^ “Getting this sort of MJO-driven reinforcement of the developing #ElNiño with a massive westerly wind burst is a pretty good indicator that this event is going to be a very strong one. No sustained easterlies to interrupt the last Kelvin Wave, and this next WWB should push the warm pool even further east. Probably why even the *relative* SST anomalies are pushing 3-3.5C in some of the latest forecasts.” Check out this animated thermocline progression over the last month…..just wow:
