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While a messy Tuesday morning rush hour has been in the cards for a while now, I'm becoming increasingly intrigued by the Monday afternoon snow event. My question is what the road temps will be like Monday after a couple of warmer days but a cold night. The NAMs and HiResW FV3 suggest that temps will only barely go above freezing tomorrow before arriving snow cools it back a few degrees. It's still tough to imagine messy roads during the daytime, but maybe if it comes down hard enough? Ultimately, it's *probably* just going to whiten grassy surfaces until you get further west and northwest, but the Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning period will be a nice reminder of winter before the big warmup.

12k NAM looks solid, better than 18z

Heh who knows about after the 15th that’s beyond the end of 360 hours of modeling; it is complete speculation with extremely low odds. I was just speaking in deference to this single model run … People that are claiming that this is cooling things back off again within those frames probably had trouble letting go of the tooth fairy in their youth. I don’t know.

'bdcf' looks like a swear word, which is fitting. Also, I'd argue that on a lot of those bdcf days, the spine of LI - 495 if you will - is often more similar to unaffected central NJ than it is to the south shore of LI. I remember many times stepping out of work in Mineola/Garden City, to blue skies and 70s, only to head south on the Meadowbrook or Wantagh and see odd darkness/haziness on the horizon. By the time I got to Sunrise Hwy I'd be in misty and damp low 50s.

I still have a ways to go, probably by the end of the week here. The snow left here is glacier, the snowmelt during the day ices up and freezes into the snow on the ground and makes it bulletproof. It’ll be great when I can hang out on my deck for a while and get some sun.

It's mostly torchy. It'll cool off at times but signal is very warm. There's no 2018 style comeback coming

Ouch . Look at SE Canada there

I would take that in MoCo all day

Oh I know and I love it. I hate when gross snow piles stick around. I’ll have my yard back this week for the next 8 months. Couldn’t come soon enough!

Huge differences in the shaded vs sun zones here. Shaded spots still have several inches while sun spots it's mostly grass.

Dews dropping dramatically nirth filtering south . Something is afoot

That’s March 1 sun for you. It’s bad for snow retention in general here near the coast-this year is tops for sure on retention but sooner or later as the sun gets higher in the sky every day it does its thing.

Very unusual to such a large temp difference between Chicago and Detroit. DTW (27.8°) was 5.3° colder in Feb than Chicago. For the winter, Detroit finished 1.8° colder than Chicago. Detroit experienced the 7th driest Feb (0.39"). Though only 4.9" of snow fell, significant snowcover was present the first half of the month.

Latest HRRR is colder with snow in NW zones for round 2 that comes in early Tuesday am. WB 0Z HRRR 2am Tuesday compared to 18Z.

the question is --does it snow after the wave 1 pause or does it start as zr/sleet. HRRR and GFS say snow. The NAMs and euro say zr

We’ll see lol. Took the initial band a little north but essentially a copy/paste of 18z as the final result.

It’s a winter run overall

Let’s hope! although I fear Long Island will be stuck in the 50’s and spring will feature a ton of bdcf’s

It’s far out but like that gfs look for the 12-15th

Isn’t it great?! A good storm and it will be gone by end of week. And next week we get 60s and 70s!

Pretty common, Jan 2016/Feb 2006 melted even faster. It was upper 40’s within a day or two and 50’s/60’s with three days of both storms.

Are the trails that crowded around your area? It gets busier here, but nothing too crazy imo with the exception of the more touristy spots like Billy Goat, MD Heights, etc.

GFS was mild in general… pretty much like we’ve been saying Mild it up and melt it off Whether we get some kind of warmer spike in there at a time or two remains to be seen, but it’s undeniable that that’s backing the Arctic jet further in Canada and exposing the lower 48 states to more pretty red sicknesses

Def got my hoops and biking fix yesterday. My legs were on E today lol. I do however have a Pilsner that I'm about to partake in.