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to be fair, most patterns are "hostile to KUs." they're rare and require some specific features

Thank you! We finally got to the actual H5 Jet stream ageostrophic etc part of my course last month! Of course, it wasn't anything crazy but its given me just enough tools to begin identifying how the upper air connects to the surface. That said, I'm very confident that this is very much a Dunning-Kruger effect where I know just enough to make broad forecasts and identify what I we need models to trend and make predictions from an earlier hour to but I am unable to "correct" model behavior as I just don't have the confidence (wait till Spring 2027 and Synoptic met for that) to do so. So with that said please feel free to correct any mistakes I make as it literally might save my grade!

Looks the "stinger" is forming out west. Looks potent but very narrow.

I need to go out and measure but I’m eyeballing 4”-5”. Very fluffy snow.

Stop. Just stop posting. You could F$#k up a wet dream. Lol

The five recruits are all going to flip and when the Portal opens, everyone is leaving. Hiring Smith is the only thing that may prevent all of that from happening.

0.95” - nice to see the QPF do well

So don’t read the thread

18z gfs shows threats. All I would care about.

we just had a 25 page thread for sleet and cold rain. It’s okay to start a thread for this potential

I mean the atmospheric models are already showing red flags, which have been pointed out on this very page.

Not bad runs for up this way on the models... 0z will be telling for sure. Plus... we dont normally get much snow here during December... most of ours comes January/February. So ill take an inch if thats all it is.

Congrats Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

The fronto sig was definitely north when I looked yesterday.

Jinxes are bs, but superstition is legit. I bought my last jeep in Nov '13. If things don't trend better soon, I might get another one.

I’m guessing we probably got close to 6” but compaction, etc. -SN snow, not sure we’ll get much more accumulation though.

30/28 PL 3.5" total accumulation

This level of cold anomaly is almost always dry. Too cold to snow is a real thing.

103 NOUS41 KPHI 022025 PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070- 071-101>106-030825- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 325 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...SNOWFALL AND FREEZING RAIN REPORTS AS OF 3:15 PM 12/2/25... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...New Jersey... ...Mercer County... Trenton Mercer Airport T in 0700 AM 12/02 ASOS ...Morris County... 1 SW Netcong 1.6 in 1115 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter Green Pond 1.0 in 1050 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter Lake Hopatcong 1.0 in 1045 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter Milton 1.0 in 1150 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter 1 S Butler 0.9 in 1200 PM 12/02 Public 2 SSW Randolph 0.2 in 0200 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter ...Sussex County... Kittatinny Lake 3.6 in 0100 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Wantage Twp 3.1 in 0200 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Sussex 2.5 in 0125 PM 12/02 Public 4 WSW Wantage Twp 2.3 in 0100 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 1 NNE Sparta 2.0 in 1200 PM 12/02 Emergency Mngr Ogdensburg 1.8 in 0145 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 2 NW Vernon 1.4 in 1250 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter ...Warren County... 1 WSW Blairstown Twp 2.2 in 1145 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter Hackettstown 0.5 in 1115 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter Stewartsville 0.5 in 0930 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter ...Pennsylvania... ...Berks County... Leesport 1.7 in 1037 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter Reading Regional Airport 0.7 in 0100 PM 12/02 ASOS Huffs Church 0.6 in 0930 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter Morgantown 0.3 in 0852 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter ...Carbon County... 1 ENE Palmerton 3.7 in 1240 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Jim Thorpe 3.4 in 1155 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter ...Chester County... 1 N East Nantmeal Twp 0.3 in 0830 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter ...Lehigh County... Washington Twp 4.0 in 1130 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter 1 SE North Whitehall Twp 2.0 in 1140 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter 1 NW Schnecksville 2.0 in 1230 PM 12/02 Cocorahs Wescosville 1.4 in 0130 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Lehigh Valley International 0.8 in 0100 PM 12/02 ASOS Salisbury Twp 0.8 in 0915 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter ...Monroe County... Coolbaugh Twp 5.3 in 0230 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Mount Pocono 5.3 in 0100 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Saylorsburg 4.3 in 1200 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 2 SSE Lake Monroe 3.5 in 1230 PM 12/02 Public 1 SSW Paradise Valley 3.5 in 1120 AM 12/02 Public Pocono Summit 3.5 in 1100 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter 1 E Scotrun 3.2 in 1227 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 1 N Arlington Heights 2.5 in 1200 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter ...Northampton County... 1 SSE Bushkill Twp 3.1 in 1140 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter Bangor 3.0 in 1200 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Danielsville 3.0 in 0222 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 1 E Pen Argyl 2.5 in 1200 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 3 E Moore Twp 2.2 in 1125 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter Nazareth 2.2 in 1105 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter Martins Creek 1.6 in 1045 AM 12/02 CO-OP Observer ...Philadelphia County... Philadelphia International T in 0700 AM 12/02 ASOS ...FREEZING RAIN REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Delaware... ...New Castle County... Wilmington T in 0919 AM 12/02 ASOS ...New Jersey... ...Somerset County... Somerville 0.06 in 0127 PM 12/02 ASOS ...Sussex County... Sussex T in 0134 PM 12/02 ASOS ...Pennsylvania... ...Berks County... Reading 0.05 in 1154 AM 12/02 ASOS ...Bucks County... Doylestown 0.05 in 0914 AM 12/02 ASOS ...Lehigh County... Lehigh Valley Intl Airport 0.01 in 1251 PM 12/02 ASOS ...Monroe County... Mt. Pocono 0.01 in 0133 PM 12/02 ASOS ...Montgomery County... Pottstown 0.08 in 1054 AM 12/02 ASOS &&

063 NOUS41 KBGM 022104 PNSBGM NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047- 048-072-030904- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 404 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM PAST 6 HOURS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...New York... ...Broome County... 1 SSE Whitney Point 6.2 in 0315 PM 12/02 NWS Employee Whitney Point 6.0 in 1130 AM 12/02 Public NWS Binghamton 5.9 in 0100 PM 12/02 Official NWS Obs 2 SW Lisle 5.8 in 0100 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Vestal Center 3.9 in 1237 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 1 N Johnson City 3.6 in 1245 PM 12/02 Broadcast Media Vestal 3.2 E 2.9 in 0140 PM 12/02 COCORAHS Kirkwood 2.7 in 1010 AM 12/02 Public ...Cayuga County... 1 ESE Locke 5.6 in 1245 PM 12/02 NWS Employee ...Chemung County... Horseheads 4.5 in 1227 PM 12/02 Public 1 ESE Horseheads North 4.1 in 1150 AM 12/02 Broadcast Media 1 S Elmira 4.0 in 1155 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter ...Chenango County... Sherburne 6.5 in 0300 PM 12/02 Public Greene 6.0 in 0200 PM 12/02 Public ...Cortland County... Solon 7.0 in 0150 PM 12/02 Public Marathon 6.5 in 0100 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 1 NE Cortland 5.2 in 1205 PM 12/02 Public ...Delaware County... 1 NE Beerston 8.5 in 0230 PM 12/02 Public Franklin 7.0 in 0145 PM 12/02 Law Enforcement Margaretville 7.0 in 0240 PM 12/02 Public 2 NW Peabrook 5.9 in 0325 PM 12/02 Emergency Mngr Delhi 4.0 in 1045 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter Fishs Eddy 4.0 in 1245 PM 12/02 Public East Meredith 4.0 in 0225 PM 12/02 Public Stamford 4.0 in 0240 PM 12/02 Public Bovina Center 2.0 in 1206 PM 12/02 ...Madison County... Chittenango 6.0 in 1245 PM 12/02 Public 2 SE Chittenango 4.7 in 0227 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter ...Oneida County... Sauquoit 7.0 in 0315 PM 12/02 Public Hinckley 7.0 in 0315 PM 12/02 Public Forestport 6.0 in 1130 AM 12/02 Public Marcy 5.5 in 0100 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 1 SE Waterville 5.5 in 0315 PM 12/02 Public Whitesboro 5.2 in 0300 PM 12/02 Public Knoxboro 4.0 in 0125 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Paris 4.0 in 0133 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Waterville 4.0 in 0315 PM 12/02 Public 3 NE Deerfield 2.6 in 1030 AM 12/02 Broadcast Media ...Onondaga County... Jamesville 5.2 in 1200 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Tully 0.3 NNW 5.0 in 0300 PM 12/02 COCORAHS ...Otsego County... Hartwick 6.0 in 0350 PM 12/02 Public New Lisbon 5.0 in 1200 PM 12/02 Public 1 NNW Mt Vision 5.0 in 1259 PM 12/02 Public Emmons 4.9 in 0327 PM 12/02 Public ...Schuyler County... Beaver Dams 4.0 in 1055 AM 12/02 Public Tyrone 4.0 in 0150 PM 12/02 Public Montour Falls 4.0 in 0353 PM 12/02 Public 1 NW Hector 3.2 in 1141 AM 12/02 ...Seneca County... 1 WNW Townsendville 3.0 in 1130 AM 12/02 Public ...Steuben County... Cameron Mills 5.0 in 0351 PM 12/02 Public Painted Post 0.7 SSE 4.5 in 0100 PM 12/02 COCORAHS Corning 3.8 in 1200 PM 12/02 Public Jasper 3.0 in 1120 AM 12/02 Public ...Sullivan County... Narrowsburg 8.0 in 0225 PM 12/02 Public Jeffersonville 8.0 in 0330 PM 12/02 Public 4 E Grahamsville 6.5 in 0230 PM 12/02 Public Liberty 6.0 in 0240 PM 12/02 Public 1 E Callicoon Center 5.0 in 1046 AM 12/02 Trained Spotter Wurtsboro 5.0 in 0330 PM 12/02 Public Woodbourne 3.5 in 1056 AM 12/02 Public Jeffersonville 2.5 in 1005 AM 12/02 Public ...Tioga County... 1 SSW Newark Valley 7.0 in 0240 PM 12/02 NWS Employee 2 WSW Nanticoke 6.0 in 1119 AM 12/02 Berkshire 6.0 in 0136 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Richford 6.0 in 0245 PM 12/02 Public Tioga Terrace 2.3 in 1222 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter ...Tompkins County... Freeville 6.5 in 0345 PM 12/02 Public West Danby 5.5 in 1200 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Newfield 5.0 in 1150 AM 12/02 Public Newfield 5.0 in 0353 PM 12/02 Public Trumansburg 4.3 in 0140 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 1 SW Forest Home 4.3 in 0320 PM 12/02 Public Enfield 4.0 in 0200 PM 12/02 Public ...Pennsylvania... ...Bradford County... Sayre 3.8 in 1200 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Athens 1.2 N 3.3 in 0100 PM 12/02 COCORAHS 1 S Sayre 3.3 in 0105 PM 12/02 ...Lackawanna County... 2 WNW Springbrook Corner 7.0 in 0100 PM 12/02 Public 1 NW Jessup 5.4 in 0234 PM 12/02 Taylor 4.2 in 0215 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 2 NNE Moosic 4.2 in 0220 PM 12/02 Official NWS Obs Wallsville 4.0 in 1200 PM 12/02 Amateur Radio Waverly 4.0 in 1240 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 1 SSW Oakhill 4.0 in 0100 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Clarks Summit 3.5 in 1100 AM 12/02 Public ...Luzerne County... Edwardsville 5.3 in 1249 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 1 NNE Sugar Notch 5.0 in 1220 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Dallas 5.0 in 1225 PM 12/02 Public 1 SE Albert 4.6 in 0104 PM 12/02 Pittston 4.0 in 1200 PM 12/02 Amateur Radio ...Pike County... 1 ENE Twin Lakes 6.5 in 0320 PM 12/02 Public Rowland 6.0 in 1230 PM 12/02 Amateur Radio 4 ENE Milford 4.0 in 1246 PM 12/02 Public ...Susquehanna County... Brackney 5.0 in 1200 PM 12/02 Amateur Radio Forest City 4.8 in 0200 PM 12/02 Public Susquehanna 4.5 in 1200 PM 12/02 Amateur Radio Uniondale 4.5 in 0310 PM 12/02 Public ...Wayne County... 2 W Damascus 8.0 in 0345 PM 12/02 Public Lakewood 5.0 in 1200 PM 12/02 Amateur Radio Equinunk 5.0 in 1230 PM 12/02 Amateur Radio Lake Como 5.0 in 0345 PM 12/02 Emergency Mngr Honesdale 4.5 in 1200 PM 12/02 Amateur Radio Newfoundland 4.0 in 1230 PM 12/02 Amateur Radio Greentown 3.5 in 1200 PM 12/02 Amateur Radio Orson 2.8 in 1200 PM 12/02 Amateur Radio ...Wyoming County... Falls 5.0 in 0300 PM 12/02 Public 1 ESE Mill City 4.5 in 0220 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter &&

Tomorrow is signing day and they have five recruits, no coach, and the 129th best recruiting class in the country. Franklin flipped another recruit today.

Greencastle, PA, just north of Hagerstown on the Mason-Dixon.

612 NOUS41 KOKX 022136 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-030936- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 436 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... 4 NNW New Fairfield 2.5 in 0404 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter ...New York... ...Orange County... 2 SW Middletown 3.9 in 0330 PM 12/02 Fire Dept/Rescue 2 S Montgomery Airport 3.1 in 0301 PM 12/02 Public 1 WNW Monroe 2.5 in 1245 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 1 NNE Chester 2.3 in 0112 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter Pine Bush 2.2 in 1220 PM 12/02 Public 1 WSW Balmville 2.2 in 0130 PM 12/02 Public 2 E Highland Mills 2.2 in 0157 PM 12/02 Public 2 SSW Middletown 2.0 in 1209 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 1 NNE Chester 2.0 in 1230 PM 12/02 Trained Spotter 2 SSW Stewart Airport 2.0 in 0144 PM 12/02 Public 3 WNW Warwick 2.0 in 0340 PM 12/02 Public Chester 1.0 in 1056 AM 12/02 Cocorahs ...Westchester County... Peekskill 1.1 in 1200 PM 12/02 Public &&

He'll get a 20+ incher in January while the north will get brushed with a couple inches.

I think there’s too much volatility in either direction to really justify grousing or celebrating. It’s just a complete coin flip I tell you one thing there’s a numerical bounce in the PNA index between 6-7-8. Typically that’s a good place to nest an event. Yet the operational versions are backing off … keeping the only identifiable wave ejected across the continent too flat and weak. The operational runs don’t want to play along with what their respective ensemble derivatives are telling them they should be. And they are all in disconnect: Euro, Canadian and American clusters It’s one of those situations where something could come back in that period and you wouldn’t necessarily suspect it having given up. We were watching something out around the 10th, but it seems to have gotten pushed out to the 12th and now that one’s gone too. Meanwhile, the ensemble means have the coldest 500mb anomaly, relative to normal, anywhere in the northern hemisphere over Southeast Canada between day 10 and 2 weeks. The operational runs being in this negative interference damping orgy strikes me as pure artifact for trying to handle such a fast changeable synaptic circumstance. The short version? There could very well be a couple of events between now and Christmas but no dopamine for you until further notice. Lol.