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I think the -PDO stays solidly negative until the early Fall when the pacific jet starts to climatologically strengthen for the season. At that point it will open the door for disruptions to it. The warming waters off the Western US does work against the -PDO but it’s obviously just one component of it.

Exciting times ahead.

Yeah, this sure is a -PDO. Fairly textbook looking actually in the North Pacific. Here's what makes that feature really interesting to me, especially in the face of this burgeoning super nino. Battle of heavyweights here. The interplay between these 2 should be fascinating. A deeply entrenched -PDO state vs potentially a record breaking el nino. When the PDO is out of phase with enso there is evidence it can act against it. Whether that is el nino or la nina. To the point of cancelling it out completely in the extratropics. Now, I am not sitting here thinking this event will be cancelled out by the PDO. That's not the point of this post. Nor do I think that will be the case. I do think there will be some sort of modulation though and think it will be interesting to watch how that goes and evolves. Additionally, could this be the event finally signaling a longer term change for the north pacific? I feel like that could be plausible given the magnitude and timing of it but who knows. Sometimes I see people dismissive of the PDO, however research suggests it's probably not a great idea to do that. Modulation of the Northern Winter Stratospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation Teleconnection by the PDO https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/32/18/jcli-d-19-0087.1.xml

At this time last year it was -3, so not as extreme as recent years. It will be interesting to see if we break into positive territory by December.

Now at 2.75

Maybe, but the 30-year norms of 50 years ago were about 2F lower than the 1991-2020s.

Agreed ... but aren't they almost mutually exclusive? 50 years ago ( personal conjecture) this on-setting NINO and it's weird 'ominous' portends that seems almost metaphysically prescient ... whatever it is and all of it probably can't happen. Why? Because this has a non-linear force - not readily observable - coming from 'unrealized' climate change. An aspect that is quite plausibly constructively interfering. The oceans have absorbed 90% of the warming that "should have" been atmospherically kinetic and or stored in WV, since the Industrial Revolution. How much absorption can happen before something is forcibly given back..? Realization forcibly occurring, incrementally. Like what happen in the 2023. That global pan-systemic temperature burst that spring is give back. As an aside... maybe that synergy is sensible, like collectively in a subconscious awareness, which is why-for ( probably ) the prescient portends. It doesn't hurt that the models are actually jacking the historical this and that, either. But it's like watching a comeback in sports. The team may still be down 10 points with time a factor, but you know somehow some way they're winning that game. In this case tho, we're the losing side... It seems this NINO is catapulting off a background that is "elastically" under tension. It trying to restore to equilibrium at all times. That restorative force is in the upward ( climate change ) direction ... 2023, this NINO, they become like leaks in the damn, and that tension is squeezing through. Seriously though, I speculate that the this NINO is in a sort of synergistic/constructive feedback with the background state. A state that could not have been the case 50 years ago, because obviously the background was significantly enough different. Less donuts in the doughnut stuffing machine's cartridge that Homer Simpson experienced in Hell.

Low of 61. @Blizzard of 93 I’ll do the calculation Monday morning, have a busy weekend. Enjoy it y’all!

I think their trade deadline strategy hinges or should hinge on these next 3 series. Really need 6-3 or better in it to look like a contender. 0-1 so far.

I had a light shower here. Was planning to get out early and mow whatever crap is growing out there, but just enough wetness that I'll have to wait a bit.

Another Orioles special. Their fundamental issues aren't correctable. They are going to lose to the good teams, but there are plenty of mediocre to bad teams on the upcoming schedule too.

Wow! With the rain this morning, just surpassed the July average at GSO, total MTD 4.93"

if this nino happened 50 years ago this month would be -4

Warm up really begins on the 31st. But that whole first two week period of Augdewst looks deep deep summer

Ugh....I guess the beach will have to wait a bit.. hopefully it starts clearing out

Heat/humidity lasted 4 days, 5th and following has been slightly BN. 78/46 here yesterday.

who expected that with a nino this strong? it's pretty nuts that we got any of these heat waves in the first place

Pleasant morning sitting outside drinking coffee. Clouds are quickly eroding N to S.

Lucked out with the hung up boundary/front this week where its been glued to the VA/NC area and bounced a bit north the last two days into the DE-MAR_VA area which pushed clouds into our area yesterday afternoon. Clouds still into SNJ and PA

We've had three days of clouds and drizzle at my house, adding up to a whopping 0.35" of rain. They got 5"+ of rain just a couple of miles north of me.

Hopefully the euro/icon have the right idea for midweek. Otherwise we’re facing a July with under 1” of rain. 0.89” so far. 00z AI GFS was really wet too, but it backed way off at 6z.

Records: Highs: EWR: 100 (2025) one of only 2 days in Jul with record highs not 100 or higher prior to last year NYC: 97 (1999) LGA: 99 (2025) JFK: 93 (2010/2025) Lows: EWR: 57 (1932) NYC: 57 (1953) LGA: 59 (1997) JFK: 59 (1997) Historical: 1609: The Jamestown expedition nearly came to an untimely end as the fleet of ships encountered a tropical storm while sailing northwest through the Bahamas. One of the nine ships sunk and the rest of the fleet scattered as far north as Bermuda. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1891 - The mercury hit 109 degrees at Los Angeles, CA, marking the peak of a torrid heat wave. (David Ludlum) 1936: Lincoln, Nebraska saw an all-time high temperature of 115 degrees. The low only dropped to 91 degrees and the average temperature was 103. Many people spent the night sleeping outside to escape the heat. 1952: The State of Alabama was in the midst of a critical heat wave and drought. During an 8-day stretch, the "coolest" high temperature in Birmingham was 99°. The heat peaked on this date in Birmingham at 106°. This was just one degree short of the highest temperature ever recorded at Birmingham on 7/29/1930. During that heat wave and drought, some wells in Alabama went dry for the very first time. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1956 - The Andrea Doria sank in dense fog near Nantucket Lightship, MA. The ship was rammed by the Swedish-American liner, Stockholm, forty-five miles off the coast of Massachusetts. Fifty-two persons drowned, or were killed by the impact. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1959: The depression meandered westward while steadily intensifying, becoming a Tropical Storm Debra on July 24. A turn towards the northwest became evident as it attained Category 1 hurricane status on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale on the following day. Strength was maintained as the hurricane curved northward at a slow forward speed, and it approached the coast of Texas as a minimal hurricane. Debra made landfall between Freeport and Galveston, Texas early on July 25. Debra rapidly weakened into a tropical storm and later a depression as it moved inland, and it dissipated on July 28. The remnant moisture later sparked upper-level thunderstorms in late July and early August.[2] Torrential rains were produced in southeastern Texas, peaking at 15.89 inches in Orange. This led to widespread flooding on highways, including portions of Farm Road 518, Highway 6, Highway 146, and U.S. Route 75. Sea vessels took the brunt of the storm, with many becoming stranded or damaged. Air, rail, and road transportation were significantly interrupted or even shut down. High winds from the storm caused expansive damage to buildings, windows, signs, and roofs. The hurricane resulted in 11 injuries but no human deaths, although approximately 90 cattle drowned. Damage in Brazoria, Galveston, and Harris counties surmounted $6.685 million. Additionally, impact in other areas increased the total losses to $7 million. (Ref. Wikipedia) (Ref. Daily News Record Newspaper - Harrisonburg, Virginia) 1972: Killing heat from 13th to 25th resulted in 185 deaths in Baltimore and 85 in the rest of MD. This heat wave in New York and Northeastern United States was significant as almost 900 people perished; the heat conditions lasted almost 16 days. (1972 Heat Wave - Wikipedia.org) 1974: Brownsville, Minn.--Lightning killed a 17-year-old youth as he slept in a tent. A companion was injured. Western Texas--Lightning struck and fatally injured a woman during a thunderstorm. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf) 1979: Flooding continues from Tropical Storm Claudette produced phenomenal rainfall totals in southeast Texas. 43 inches fell in 24 hours around Alvin; setting a U.S. record. Freeport reported a total of 30 inches. Total damage from flooding was over $400 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1984: The hardest hit area was the state capital of Pierre of SD. Winds gusting to 83 mph demolished 13 planes and several hangers at the Pierre airport. The thunderstorm also produced very heavy rains as 4 inches of rain fell in 30 minutes flooding streets across town. Winds in excess of 70 mph caused crop and property damage in many areas across central South Dakota. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1986 - Tremendous hailstones pounded parts of South Dakota damaging crops, buildings and vehicles. Hail piled two feet deep at Black Hawk and northern Rapid City. Hail an inch and a quarter in diameter fell for 85 minutes near Miller and Huron, piling up to depths of two feet. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Sixteen cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Beckley, WV, equalled their all-time record high of 91 degrees, established just the previous day. It marked their fourth day in a row of 90 degree heat, after hitting 90 degrees just twice in the previous 25 years of records. The water temperature of Lake Erie at Buffalo, NY, reached 79 degrees, the warmest reading in 52 years of records. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from central Kansas to western Kentucky and southern Illinois during the day. Thunderstorms produced tennis ball size hail at Union, MO, and winds gusts to 65 mph at Sedalia, MO. Five cities in Washington and Oregon reported record high temperatures for the date. Medford, OR, hit 107 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Early afternoon thunderstorms over west central Missouri drenched the town of Ferguson with four inches of rain. Early evening thunderstorms in Pennsylvania produced more than two inches of rain north of Avella in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) 1990: Intense, slow-moving thunderstorms, dumped up to 11 inches of rain in just 6 hours at Lawton, OK. The flash flooding closed many roads, and 50 to 60 motorists had to be rescued when they became stranded in the high water. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1992: Grapefruit sized hail knocked windshields out of several cars about 9.5 miles northeast of Scott City, KS.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1993: Lightning prevalent in north and eastern GA - 12 homes hit in Cobb County (2 destroyed). A police officer in Augusta survived a strike while working a traffic accident. On the 26th, 10 people at the Atlanta Zoo were injured by lightning while sheltering under a gazebo. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1997: Campbell County, VA a lightning strike injured a man at Timberlake. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 1998: Kansas City was especially hard hit by heavy rain with the suburb of Independence reporting 6.5 inches of rain, most of it falling in a matter of a few hours. Thunderstorms produced 2 to 3 inches of rain over parts of Banner and Cheyenne counties of the Nebraska panhandle, with local amounts around 4.5 inches. This produced flash flooding which closed some county roads, and put 6 to 18 inches of water on some streets in Sidney, NE. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2000: An F4 tornado at Granite Falls, MN caused one fatality and $20 million dollars in damage. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2005: The citizens of Sand Point, Alaska saw a rare tornado touchdown on two uninhabited islands. Sand Point is part of the Aleutian Chain and is located about 570 miles southwest of Anchorage. 2006: It was the hottest day during the current heat wave in central California. Some record highs included: Delano: 116°, Three Rivers: 116°, Wasco: 114°, China Lake Naval Air Station: 113°, Fresno: 113°, Bakersfield: 112 °F.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2010: The 105 °F recorded at the Richmond International Airport on the 24th and 25th also ties the highest maximum temperature ever recorded in July in Richmond. The high of 105 °F and low of 79 °F on these two dates yields a daily average temp of 92.0 °F which breaks the all-time daily mean temp of 91.5. Thus making these two dates the hottest days ever recorded in the past 113 years for Richmond. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC) This highest temperature ever recorded for July of 105 °F has occurred on two other dates. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records - KRIC) On the 25th, damaging straight line thunderstorm winds with widespread gusts 60-75 mph and isolated gusts to 90 mph across parts of Fairfax and Loudoun Counties in Virginia and Montgomery, northern Prince Georges, Ann Arundel and Charles counties in Maryland and in Washington, DC. The storm resulted in 3 deaths from wind and one from lightning, widespread damage from downed trees and power lines, and loss of power to more than 300,000 customers.

This is officially the wettest July to date in RDU history!