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A paltry .07" here. Yet another event that looked decent 3-4 days out only to dwindle at go time. Top soils are barely ok but will dry out very quickly with any stretch of sunny, very wam to hot weather. Long term dryness persists. It has gotten better over the last 4-6 weeks but could easily go in the other direction fast if we don't get meaningful rain. Southeast really taking it on the chin. We'll see if that persistently dry area hangs on and/or expands over the next few months. It could make an upper ridge want to hold on as the Summer takes hold.

In the more changes dept…mesowest is doneski at the end of the year (maybe sooner). https://mesowest.utah.edu/notice.html

Great day for GYX radar to be down.

0.25" overnight, bumps me all the way up to 0.27" for the week, 55F.

If only it was snow

The heaviest rain this system ordeal has to offer may in fact come from this introductory band that Brian just showed there. The whole system is closing off but that behavior is doing so over pallid gradients/weak baroclinicity, while the mid and upper heights are really filling as it closes ... not deepening further. As it is pulling away, it even opens the trough back up and ends up almost washed out of the hemisphere by the next day as it's corps smears up over the Maritime. [edit, it actually does go through another deepening phase up there but then right after it's disappears] Systems tend to not score well in the course when they're limping into the final. The NAM's lower QPF all along may end up doing better in this. The other models "might" be over producing QPF given weakening structure. It'll be interesting to see what happens with this. It is still a closed circulation, tho maintaining a progressive movement ... but close circulations may get have a window of easterly anomaly which adds ... So both a lower and upper performance are true.

Not only has a mid-May freeze happened before, there was one just three years ago:

In leominster and not much going on here.. looks like home is getting drenched though.. almost 2 inches the other day plus this.. things will green up quick now

F***in... ALEET!

El busto here. Looks like very little rain

Oh geez - personally have no experience yet working with these tools set to replace the existing ... I was talking to Wiz' yesterday, just the roll-out in August could end up a cluster fuck. So many tech suites have the present existing modeling tools deeply integrated, soup to nuts, and all that has to be reworked. Graphical processing alone - eesh So if on top of all that headache, it's to put a piece of shit bad models into play? haha. Sounds like a governmental operation, huh

39 this morning in the Valley.

Good hit along 95. Every bit helps.

and that strong late spring sun and hot temps will dry things out further worsening the drought - moderate to severe in many places already.....

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1CkuX5TEJE This is a link about the spring freeze of a few weeks ago and the effect on the early leaves being frozen. My son, Geoff Cornish, with AccuWeather put the story together after contacting some aborists for their input.

0.05"

0.04" yikes.

Continues to worsen across the northern Piedmont/ mountains

NWS on their morning X post seems to have conceded that there will be little to no rain into early next week.

i would love to get 2" of rain, but want no part of 4" (insert joke here). too much at one time

HREF mean is like 2-2.25" for parts of our area. Typically we've found that the max HREF QPF may not occur in the right area, but it occurs somewhere in the CWA. That's like 4+, so I believe it.

Mm... fwiw, my own interaction/experience and impressions therefrom with AI tools are more favorable than that. It comes down to one's own responsibility to "asking the question in the right way" One aspect I will fault AI is that it sometimes will hooks it's teeth into a adjective/verb one has chosen to use - perhaps the user had the the 2nd or 3rd preferential definition in mind when they did...- as gospel. It appears as tho the AI probabilistically leans on the first more proper usage? speculation. Either way, it doesn't offer suggestions from suspicion over what the user really meant - probably because it's not a human being in that sense. AI isn't yet at the level of "what was it they were really thinking". This can tint the context when it is subtle, at other times outright diverting conversations down paths users weren't really intending. Thing is, it was always because of the user's word choice. Cobalt says "...the vibes are off," and Dan mentions nuances ... etc. You know, those strike me as really being the state of the art of the technology not really getting the "spirit" of the moment along the exchange, in lieu of its tendency to run to the most concise meaning upon turn of phrases and/or word choice. I've gone back along the exchange history and found inflection points and said, "I didn't mean to imply x, I meant more y" etc... and after the brief pause, the AI admits to a course correction so to speak. It can also help if you use the markdown option in the settings to color the type of experience you want. Mine says no flattery. Don't be obsequious. This actually helps...because if you use a word that's ...a little off, the AI will be less likely to just ignore/accept it - it might even ask me how what I just said relates. I could almost see a future where a type of new job req emerges in industries that have adopted/bought into AI called "AICE" employees - pronounced acer. These are "AI Configuration Engineers" What do you do, "I'm an Acer" for x-y-z. The job entails a fuller/intimate understanding of the tech/circumstance such that the engagement with the AI teases the best solution without those distractions. Which believe it or not ... are hugely costly - even small ones and the deviation, the expenditure in recovery adds to the growing data center push-back concern over resource piggery; it is expensive for a lot of reasons. This could all just be generational, too. It's important to bear in mind, this tech is like the Wright Brothers first 90 feet of successful flight ... well, proportionally, maybe a little farther along. But we're no where close to flying high altitude international flight routes in that metaphor just yet. There are advances, lots of them. That ambit research is definitely not going to stop for better or worse! Plus, imagine when Quantum Computing comes on line, a computing core that finds all possible definitions that can exist, at the same instant, and chooses the top probability - now... plug Gemini into that. Hm? So far, by keeping tabs on my own concision when dealing with AI, I've come to find that it's been the most advantageous accompaniment to both problem solving, and the creative process, since either the invention of the scientific calculator or biology's ability to dream. Impetus on a accompanying helper - we're a ways yet from landing the ability to soup to nuts solutions in isolation.

The Hi-Res GRAF model actually did a pretty good job showing the bands to the west and east of NYC. Notice the local subsidence and lower snowfall totals forecast from NYC to LGA. I will also give the model points for seeing the jackpot near Providence though it was off by a little bit with the exact location. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/IBM-Introducing-Worlds-Highest-Resolution-Global-Weather-Forecasting-Model

Latest drought monitor shows some improvement around the Charlotte area, SC and Georgia. Not much movement but probably the first time it’s trended positively in 6 months. This was expected as those are the areas that capitalized on the rainfall earlier this month.