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Kids gonna get a 2 hour delay for cold rain

Yeah 12z models coming in warmer for those who were on the line NW of 95 up to I-78. I still think Berks, Lehigh, Northampton can squeeze out 1-3 inches on the initial thump IF it starts as snow. However, if there's a pesky warm nose (i.e. that some of the warmer guidance shows) things could start as sleet which would cut down entirely on snow totals. It's not really a sleet type of storm, though I'm talking about the initial thump before the true warm surge happens as the low tracks to the S and SE of the area off the coast.

The GFS crushed everything on this from days ago. I knew it . Total collapse. What happened to the Messenger shuffle

Yeah... really made a mess SOP yuck

Having a quick restrengthening of the SPV didn’t stop the rest of the winter (through early March) from being cold in these two cases: 2002-3: Jan 17th SSWE followed by avg just 2 weeks later 1993-4: Jan 1st very weak SPV followed by just below avg just 2 weeks later and mainly above avg rest of winter:

add ICON to the list

Not great…

Still some hope that Friday/Saturday event gives us something

I had a brief period of snow, then a lull, then a period of moderate sleet, a lull followed by mist/drizzle. The "rain" amounted to 0.01".

We will still see snow. Will it amount to much? Who knows. It’s a race against rising temps. Snow on 12/2 is exciting all the same.

This setup in January or February would have had quite a few cashing in, with some possible overrunning closer to the coast. But it's still early in the season and the water is "warm" (and the low is supposed to be coming out of the warm Gulf). If the low moves further to the east, some of the colder air could mix in and bring the R/S line further east.

Hey, do either of you know, for that mini event yesterday morning, did it stay as all snow/sleet or did it end as a period of plain rain? Trying to keep the books accurate haha. Thanks.

How are the cherry blossoms doing?

Reggie warmed 925 into SNH. Lousy trends at 12z.

WB 12Z 3K NAM...our first Lucy of the season!!!!

You forgot to mention how it still managed to change to sleet over JI's house and he only gets 2-4"

Welp, looks like I’ll need to drive up Hamburg Rd again to see snow. 1k ft elevation is the new 500.

Final Call for entries and revisions. When the clock strikes midnight (EST) on Monday evening, the entry deadline will be closed. Speaking of which, here is my entry: BWI: 8.2 DCA: 6.7 IAD: 9.4 RIC: 8.2 ----- SBY: 6.7

ICON warmed a good bit too...not as crazy as NAM, but a solid tick. 12z runs are definitely seeing something so far. RGEM looked a little warmer too, but a very small amount vs 06z.

Same thoughts I have. I'm not confident I'll reach 2" but .5"-2" seems reasonable. The last minute north trend on models has begun, at least on some modeling.

Update Dec 1

go take another run

The overall differences between NAM/Euro/GFS seem rather subtle but these subtle differences have significant ramifications into how this unfolds. All kind of seems to be tied into exactly where/when the sfc low becomes more defined and where/when 925/850 lows develop and close off. Of course, there is still the signal in the potential for dual lows. Regardless, this will be a nice hit from parts of Maine through central NH, southern VT and into western MA. Also wondering if we see a secondary smaller max from like Worcester into SE NH

I believe its a function of not living through the lean years prior to 2000. People expect the bonanza of snowstorms during that time and get frustrated when we regress back to the mean.

Bingo. chubbs and donaldsutherland1 don't seem to understand that "subsidies" and "costs" are not the same thing. You can't just lump them in together like that. If you're going to do that - you also have to include "benefits". Not doing so simply invalidates the argument. It's an attempt to distract from the actual argument, which is explicit subsidies. That is a valid discussion, and the data clearly shows that renewable energy receives far more subsidies than fossil-fuel energy.