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brutal L

Somebody made that point a couple of days ago. Might’ve been you or Scott

6z euro worlds part from gfs Sunday. It’s not even close. But tomorrow it gives good snows to some. 1-2”

The accumulating snow band has trended NW on everything, one more tick and we just see a coating of snow, but it's shifting everything west which may bring sunday up the coast, so we take that

Will gladly sacrifice Saturday, to Bring Sunday.

Like I originally mentioned for the gooning window (27th-29th) a few days back, biggest concern for that time would be suppression or a swing and miss E. Why? 25th system drags in the Arctic air, EPO is on roids, PNA briefly spikes, and there is ridging up top on our side. Was always intrigued with the cold being established for this window and a wave undercutting our pna spike BUT the chance of a ruined snowgasm would be a squashed/suppressed system or swing and miss just too far East. Still feel we are entering quite a favorable pattern even if this particular window fails. Alot to transpire still before this and a chance or 2 the next 10 days. Eta: just saw the 6z GooFuS and is so close to a big hit but walks the line on a swing and miss (caveats: op run at range etc, but general window still reflected) Here are the gefs and eps for reference around this time:

It’s interesting how sensitive the winter atmospheric ENSO state is to what occurs in the fall. In 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 we had the strong fall La Nina back background state prevent the El Nino atmospheric state from coupling during the winters. So we got two very La Nina-like winters. Plus the WPAC warm pool is boosting the RONI beyond what Nino 3.4 SSTs might suggest. Another very interesting case study was the fall into winter 2012-2013 atmospheric patterns. We had a weak El Nino develop around Labor Day only to fade several weeks later. But the 500 mb atmospheric response and jet stream patterns from October on were more El Niño-like. Then the very warm El-Nino-like December into mid-January. This was followed by the Southern Stream phasing in with the Northern Stream for the historic Nemo in February which followed the El Niño backloaded scenario. Those were the days before the WPAC warm pool became so dominant. So weak El Niño atmospheric states had no trouble coupling. I agree with you that a change in winter Nino 3.4s usually don’t shift the atmospheric state until we get into the spring and summer due to the atmospheric lag. Plus we saw how Niña-like influences persisted into the 2023-2024 very strong El Niño leading to the stronger Southeast Ridge and weaker STJ and lack of a Nino trough in the East leading to the record warmth. So we will have to monitor this developing El Niño for the hybrid Niña traits that occurred with our last El Niño. It would be nice to just get a clean El Niño translation. But even the seasonal models are lingering the warm pool near Japan as the Nino regions warm. So the next few years will be a test case if we can try and weaken that warm pool.

Although, more often than not, this is the way our winters are here in the South. Growing up in the 1970's, I didnt realize how unique those years were, I grew up believing our area got lots of snow each year, only to find out as an adult, that it takes a very unique set up to have that occur. Our area in Middle TN could use some moisture period, of any form!

We aren't going to "move forward" by adopting anti-renewable/EV policies.

I skied at the Trapp Family Lodge Nordic center yesterday, it was fascinating to watch the snow depth go from a sloppy 6-9" to 28-30" as we skied from 1,350' to their cabin at 2,100'. Beautiful trail network.

My NWS forecast says up to an inch possible tomorrow.

Def shifting more toward Berkshires NW CT and S VT/Sw NH. As that trough sharpens, it will cause Saturday to go NW but it alsO brings Sunday west.

Nice test of the AI models, we'll see if they have a clue

9z RAP actually has a nice little burst 11am-12pm Sat

Yeah, this is one of those little sneaky ones.

yeah they're crushing it

How is it this bad 60hrs out? This might be some of the worse modeling I’ve seen lately. Shameful

This one is coming. It’s been signaled in multiple ways for a long time. A good run is coming.

Based on my observations this season in general warmth has trended a little colder this year once we’re inside of 5 days so I’m not mad seeing the boundary modeled a little north.

GFSAI has precip back into the mountains for Sunday! It’s a full on SECS. EuroAI still has precip past DC. AI models either going to win glory or shame.

Gefs lighting up like a Christmas tree

Euro Skynet ticked west a bit

Gefs is insane

Added Sunday to this. Maybe if we keep changing the dates, eventually this will be a snowstorm thread?

Make a new one or rename this one.