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Upton for Staten Island and Mt. Holly for locations in Middlesex County, NJ are both going with 1-2 inches tomorrow night now.

I think you have reading comprehension issues. I said that’s what the models showed at 0Z, I didn’t say that was my forecast. You can go back and look for yourself. I did say that if they went warmer, it wouldn’t surprise me because the gradient is overhead. You people need to read more post less.

Mount Pocono, Vernon, and some points on Long Island are the only locations shown that are currently in the 30s F.

up to 50 forecast 41? yeah how can it be this inaccurate lol

Beautiful day out getting to near 60 degrees and sunny. Last of the snow melting away with maybe 30% coverage. Honestly, I've loved the snow but man it made hiking and most of my activities impossible. Glad to see it go.

You know this is exactly what I was saying earlier. Yesterday you were gung -ho on the pattern. Looking really wintry and good. Earlier today you were completely off the cliff that it was going more warmth and not wintry. You out of anybody on here knows how often and how quick the models will change. Who knows, we may still get mild rainy conditions the end of next week, but we also make it wintry conditions.

Always.

This here...that's what I had assumed the changed would be. But I don't remember this stuff happening before 2016 or us having discussions about perfect track rainstorms in February. In fact I distinctly remember a snowfall in 2015 where it was 50⁰+ the day before and we were are thermostat watching...and the next day we got several inches! It all just feels sudden to me.

Gradient pattern looks to be setting up for a bit for the far Northwoods. Interesting in that i was thinking/hoping for a 2007-08 esque gradient pattern during winter, but the persistent cold/NW flow had other ideas.

NoP better for dancing with the devil.

Yup…thermal gradient over our region = more threats Keep the QPF coming

I think PSU would agree with my take on this but its never quite that easy. Its background presence has been increasing. Some setups might still be cold enough, some setups wont be. Over time our marginal setups will only become more likely to fall on the not cold enough side. So its not like some year will mark the end of our marginal setups forever, instead its a slow decline. Ofc to not make this political this phenomenon is unique to only snowstorms and has no broader causes, effects or solutions.

Backyard temp of 56.7 here. Lot of snow melt on the deck right now. Actually have the back screen door open for the cats. They are having a good waft.

lovely day today mid 40's this is what many of us needed..

Warmer regime overall hopefully offsetting Stein.

So 2F warmer...did the effects somehow accelerate after 2016? Because I'm sure 2014 or 15 had setups like this that worked, didn't they?

Will most of the column from h85 down is nearly isothermal so they all start warming together in this case. Slightly. But the equation gets a lot harder the further southwest you go right now.

Short sleeve weather - next week looks even warmer possibly

I know there’s been some run to run waffling, but it seems that the overall signal has been for decent precipitation starting around mid week into the following week. It would make sense considering how dry it’s been.

52.2 here. Feels like 65. As much as I love cold weather, today is a stellar day.

True BUT this topic never comes up in a vacuum. It’s not like someone comes in here and just says now let’s talk about climate change. What happens is we get a synoptic situation that is being impacted by climate change. It’s impossible not to note that this storm we are tracking right now is being impacted by it being warmer. You’d be under an advisory if not a warning right now of it was 1970 and 2f colder with this same exact synoptic setup. That discussion is muddy because it bridges both topics. And I don’t think the people that shit it down do so because it’s the wrong thread they do so because they are uncomfortable with the topic. Either because they are in denial about what it’s doing to our snowfall or because they are in denial because it’s inconvenient to their preferred ideology. I have no patience or fucks to give about either of those reasons.

Yeah it’s pretty solid considering basically zero falls D1-5 except an inch or two on the south coast. It’s mostly D5-15.

Seeing some noticeable melting of the snow mounds here. Very welcome break from the Siberian weather pattern we’ve had.

This data will keep me busy for a while. lol I am much obliged. @donsutherland1