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June 1st

Going to be a huge day for them tomorrow.. hoping some of the fun can make it to the Jersey coast!!

Also, the RRFS apparently can "see" intense mesocyclones! Look at the 972 mb "low" in nrn IN 01z Thu!

For Thu... I am impressed w/ the very strong WAA early on Thu in the NEUS. Atypical for summer. That looks to produce some sig tstms in itself. Thu afternoon is tricky b/c CAPE is lacking, but the shear is through the roof, as high as 85 kt 0-6 km and 45 kt 0-1 km. I can't think of any event in the last several decades w/ warm sector shear so high here this time of year when a strong sfc low passes just to our N. The 00z RRFS show a number of discrete storms Thu aftn w/ CAPE as high as 1150 in spots. I know the RRFS can get carried away and I don't have a good feel for it yet, but overall given the existing anomalies for the wind fields, I am quite concerned. I don't like that the sfc low is lifting/weakening as it moves across srn Quebec, but that may not matter in the end? Given such setups as so rare here, using the very limited past analogs we have for sig tor events in the NEUS, we don't really know the full spectrum or what can happen here b/c of that rarity in itself! I can honestly say I do not have a good forecast "feel" for this upcoming event in the NEUS b/c of the low CAPE, otherwise, it would be easy. It looks really nasty for the Midwest Wed -- off the charts for parameters. So how will that translate E? Not just in the NEUS, but in the Mid-Atlantic. Not every high-end svr event in the Great Lakes/OH Valley/Midwest this time of year ends up being big the next day to the E. I say "this time of year" b/c in the cool season, it is rare by default. In the NEUS, everyone often thinks of the June 8-9, 1953 outbreak sequence, but it doesn't always work like that. SPC DY3 outlook seems to focus on straight-line winds. That does seems more likely given the very fast storm motions and wind fields.

Main uncertainty being the placement of the warm front and antecedent convection.

Yup, Southeast ETN has been getting a few soakers the past few days. Finally had a good sunset today after a weeks worth of dreary clouds. This is facing your neck of the woods. .

Nice. D2 Moderate.

"Just give me 90, dews, and the beach." Incorrect, it should say, "just give me S+, S+, and S+!"

Crofton MD MB 6/11 (I think). Video never can capture the roar of the wind well, at least not the same as actually being there! https://www.facebook.com/reel/1658094618796584

Forecast: yeah, it's going to rain. Then in reality, not really. Sorry.

*Any* wx anomaly or deviation now is news and hyped. Inane. As if everything should be exactly normal/avg all the time? Guess what, normal/avg doesn't exist as many think it does! And hyping how the planet works normally (that's what it has become now) and acting like something is wrong is pure drivel. You can make a living on-line now just finding anything going on across the globe to the smallest minutia and hype it as if it is significant. Basically taking the fact that "something is always going on" and making a big deal out of it no matter what. Have to have that CONTENT for clicks/likes, engagement bait, drive the algorithms, and monetize! It has become a sideshow within a sideshow and race to the bottom.

Little under 48 hours out looks like a thread the needle event for areas of DuPage and Cook near the city. Will be incredibly fast storm motion

Have to imagine a D2 MDT is coming given the magnitude of the setup being shown by the 00z guidance thus far, with some supercells on the CAMs interacting with it. Just incredible wind fields.

Well, at least I only got wet this time and and not a concussion. But it was refreshing. Needed a cool off from planting.

we were without power from that wind for 15 hours up here by the lake

Really want to see if the risk lifts northeast in the next day out there. Impacts here TBD.

Yeah sure is. This could potentially be a high risk scenario depending on how the details evolve. Could have significant tornado potential depending on storm mode and in fact, there could be two rounds of tornadic supercells; one in the morning then again later in the day. Tornado potential may be a bit lower with round 2, however, if linear mode dominates in which we'd probably see a significant wind event.

barely anything the past 3 days in a row. slabbed by drought

Looks like a pretty high tornado risk but I’m most interested in wind/derecho potential. Wish we could run something all the way east.

Yep. Details TBD but the setup is impressive. I've got friends a bit SW of Peoria so watching closely. They've had quite the run with severe weather since they moved from Mass 2 years ago.

OT but Wednesday is looking nasty out in IL/IN @weatherwiz

The suns not strong if it isn’t hot out obviously.

Save 80/65 for Christmas. bring on 99/75

Fireflies