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  2. vortex95
    Deep layer shear is good tomorrow, and there an solid 250 mb jet involved, unlike last time, so better dynamically. HRRR really makes the CAPE stand out over the entire bay. PWATs come up nicely during the day, so do sfc dew points.
  3. CAPE
    Mostly SE of me. Those people get all the damn blizzards too!
  4. CAPE
    After eating a turkey club for lunch, I'm having a vegetarian dinner with massive fresh local Brussels spouts, oven roasted with salt and pepper and a bourbon-maple syrup glaze, along with quickly sautéed sugar snap peas in butter. And ofc an old fashioned. All healthy and delicious!
  5. Torch Tiger
    You agree - pretty nice inland. Fully expect Stein to save the day and we'll see lots of dews, a few showers but mostly dry and nice. Hopefully S coast gets flooded out but that simply isn't the case for most
  6. marsman
    High of 98F at 3:10pm
  7. Stormlover74
    I guess a flood watch could still be issued by upton A cold front will slowly approach and move through the area Thursday into Thursday night. A period of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms will move through Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. There is the potential for isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding, with rain rates of 1 to 2 inches per our possible during this time frame.
  8. WxWatcher007
    A time traveling TC!
  9. vortex95
    @CoastalWxdoes not realize the RPLUS for ern sections is not fcst for tomorrow. The srn MCS is long gone. The big GHG rains are overnight Fri. This is not purely a diurnal convective event!
  10. Mike Cycle
    Link to the pdf, its open access. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.5203 A general takeaway is that they drilled in on the precision and accuracy of homogenization versus actual parallel data for several variables (tmin, tmax, etc) and generally find homogenization is better than no homogenization, but still needs refinements. Everyone would agree with that. No one is claiming homogenization is always accurate. What homogenization is doing is gathering information that is dormant in the stations around a target station, and adding that information to the raw target station data. Sharp changes at individual stations are visible against the backdrop of other stations, and this is information we want. This is what Chubbs is demonstrating directly in his examples. And looking at his examples, one can see there is a lot of noise inherent in the process.
  11. WxWatcher007
    Well, that was a bust Peak season forecast will come out this week.
  12. vortex95
    Past performance is no guarantee of what happens "next time!"
  13. dailylurker
    Meh... Eastern Shore special.
  14. CoastalWx
    None of these lately
  15. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  16. Jackstraw
    So we broke all time river crests through North Central IN down to Northern Indy last week. Now a rain train is setting up to dump again. I'm already pushing 13 inches for the last week, 90% came on Thurs thru Fri night. Insane.
  17. winterwarlock
    Sure jan
  18. doncat
    Been a warm August so far... Have had five 90+° days and five 88° days including today.
  19. dendrite
  20. TriPol
    Yes. We do.
  21. frd
    Matches the WPC forecast almost perfectly
  22. winterwarlock
    ??? No we dont
  23. kdxken
    Same winners as usual. If you consider getting rained on a win.
  24. CoastalWx
  25. CoastalWx
    If that low somehow hangs around and maybe teams up with the Saturday thing like some models show then perhaps we get decent rains. I just have a hard time buying those amounts when I’m sure that complex tomorrows drives the moisture south.
  26. dendrite
    Vortex with the tough love for Scoot. Laying himself down like a bridge over troubled waters.
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