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Ya, just get some precip into the cold dome, won't even need that much qpf.. Then Take a look at 500 on the 29th threat.. Big Dog pattern.

I won’t no part of the ice storm that is being shown across MS/AL/GA. That will be crippling & devastating. Though if we get what models are showing for TN. It will definitely cripple TN for a few days. Thats alot of snow. Plus those temps behind it! We get hot like that. I will call it winter & be very happy.

Yea, I think it's 7".

The 12z GEFS has at the first round of light mix into west TN by early Friday....and waves of rain, sleet, snow, and ice persist until the following Sunday - like ten days of waves along the gradient. No idea if it is right. I am just the messenger on this.

Watch out, Jacksonville! [Florida]

I went back and read posts. Right after I posted snow started up again and was quickly coating everything. From secaucus south on 95 and into Monmouth County very little accumulation. Got to Manalapan at in-laws and it's coming down good!

Temps still slowly falling here. Down to 29.9F. Light snow continues.

Always watch massive gulf-infused overrunning setups. They love to come north. So seeing them down south right now at this juncture isn’t the worst thing. There’s clearly a lot of spread anyway…EPS has QPF well into New England on these 24h panels.

This evening is going to be fun and across a large area. I really feel like this could overperform somewhere and we could see some 7-10" totals, especially if we get a good mlvl fronto band to setup. As Ray has mentioned multiple times, the late closing off at 850 is a little concerning but bufkit soundings are pretty damn good looking. This is 16z HRRR for ORH. While I would like to see some lower omega values to consider rates at or exceeding 1.5" the depth of the DGZ and likely efficiency of the snow growth could make this very possible.

193 NOUS41 KOKX 181831 PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-190631- Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 131 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Bridgeport Airport 2.0 in 1250 PM 01/18 Official NWS Obs 2 ENE New Canaan 1.7 in 1132 AM 01/18 Trained Spotter 3 WSW Shelton 1.4 in 1118 AM 01/18 Trained Spotter 4 NNW New Fairfield 1.2 in 1051 AM 01/18 Trained Spotter ...New Haven County... 1 ENE North Haven 1.5 in 1123 AM 01/18 Public ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... 2 NNE Franklin Lakes 2.0 in 0112 PM 01/18 Trained Spotter 1 N River Vale 1.6 in 1135 AM 01/18 Trained Spotter 1 NNE Rutherford 1.5 in 1035 AM 01/18 Trained Spotter 1 SSW River Edge 1.0 in 1145 AM 01/18 Public ...Hudson County... Harrison 0.6 in 1234 PM 01/18 CO-OP Observer ...Union County... Newark Airport 1.1 in 1250 PM 01/18 Official NWS Obs Elizabeth 0.8 in 1034 AM 01/18 Public ...New York... ...Nassau County... 1 N Syosset 1.6 in 1040 AM 01/18 Trained Spotter ...New York (Manhattan) County... Central Park 0.4 in 1250 PM 01/18 Official NWS Obs ...Orange County... Monroe 2.0 in 1215 PM 01/18 Trained Spotter 4 SW Pine Bush 1.5 in 1045 AM 01/18 Public ...Queens County... NYC/La Guardia 0.5 in 1250 PM 01/18 Official NWS Obs Kennedy Airport 0.3 in 1250 PM 01/18 Official NWS Obs ...Suffolk County... Upton (NWS Office) 0.6 in 1250 PM 01/18 Official NWS Obs 1 WNW Jamesport 0.4 in 0100 PM 01/18 Public Orient 0.3 in 1040 AM 01/18 Fire Dept/Rescue Islip Airport 0.2 in 1250 PM 01/18 Official NWS Obs ...Westchester County... 2 ENE Peekskill 1.5 in 0115 PM 01/18 Trained Spotter ...FREEZING RAIN REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...New York... ...Suffolk County... Upton (NWS Office) T in 0650 AM 01/18 Official NWS Obs Farmingdale Airport T in 0617 AM 01/18 ASOS

Just got back to up to PVD. It was 34* and -sn/rn when I left, and was snowing pretty good from Fair Haven up to some point past Fall River, but nothing was sticking. Caca here in PVD. Nothing coming down, very little left from earlier.

Snow intensity seems to be picking up down here

Looking at KDIX CC band, you can see the rain/snow line crashing its way south/east

Things turned white in a hurry in Winston-Salem

I really thought a few days ago it was going to sit longer and come out delayed after the 27th. Still could, I suppose. But I am quite OK with it being ejected as depicted on the ens means and getting an ECS this weekend.

Picked up 0.15" of rain this morning. When that ended temp rose to 37. Been slowly dropping since. Currently 34.5. Just need some damn precip lol.

Yep. Typical SE trend will commence. And no I’m not kidding or being sarcastic with that statement.

Euro AI (AIFS) has the best verification of areal 0.25+” precip coverage at D3-5 right now, second best at D2 and still top 5 inside 24 hrs. It’s not the magnitude you want to pay attention to with AI. It’s the location of the precip distribution and the handling of the 5H mean trough/ridge pattern. It’s very powerful and definitely worthy of looking at for synoptically driven pattern. Convection is okay and still does a relatively good job at location of potential precip maxima, but it cannot handle the magnitude at all. Struggled mightily in that area, but useful nonetheless!

Very light snow in Danville .

Talk about region wide. Has a Wes-southwest to east-northeast flow to it.

How far inland are you? No accumulation in the southern tip of Newport this am. Virtually impossible with any southerly wind component down here.

Snowing in NW Greensboro

Fwiw, I think it’s good to talk about it a lot because the more we all recognize and point out where the AIs were successful, then we can start to pick up patterns….maybe they are good in some types of setups and crappier in others relative to the OP guidance.

The new EPS mean might be the highest I have ever seen...

The ice amounts from the 12z Euro are pretty staggering. I want NONE of that - nada, zip, zero. Here are the 12z deterministic runs for next weekend. Things are going to change with this almost assuredly. Keep in mind though, Arkansas has this storm within five days now. Also, the frames below are only snapshots. The GEM frame is the second wave. Most models had a couple of waves.