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It’s interesting how we got a much warmer and less snowy version of 2013-2014 and the 2014-2015 the last two winters. This is what I was getting at in my discussions over the last few years. The cold pool and polar vortex over North America was much smaller during the last few winters with a more expansive and stronger 500 mb ridge. So Boston couldn’t challenge their snowiest winter in 2014-2015 with the February 2015 cold and the Great Lakes couldn’t approach 2013-2014 snow and cold. So the last few winters were a warmer and less snowy reflection due to the big global temperature jump which occurred with the 2015-2016 super El Niño.

1997-1998 had some...doesn't matter...too much heat.

Only Redsky can complain about seeing snow a day after it was 80… dude could live in Kamchatka and he’d find a way to complain about only seeing 10 feet while the town next to him got 11 feet.

It's here: https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/historic-storms That's what the historic storms section is for (one reason anyway) for big storms pre-1994. I'm going to go back and touch it up at some point. The reason i stopped at 94-95 is because NEXRAD WSR-88D is unavailable before Jan 1, 1995. So i stopped the seasons at 94-95. Technically there is one event in the 94-95 season, Nov 1994 that doesnt have radar because of that fact. On top of that there is no PNS reports from around 95-97 and earlier depending on the forecast office so reports are thin and it's basically just COOP data so i dont really feel that good about the maps before that time...they are rough and coarse. Thanks. I do the best i can with hand made maps, it's never going to be perfect and there will always be small discrepancies depending on what reports you use or keep out. I try to use every resource available and throw out the bad data. It's all just one persons interpretation thats why you're never going to see two maps that look identical to each other for the same storm. The best ones are the computer generated ones that get fed data and spit out a hi resolution contoured map and factor in terrain. Tomer Burg probably has the best maps out there in my opinion. The NWS maps are also great but they don't filter out a lot of obviously bad data that gets ingested.

Another 100 mile shift to the NW. This might end up in Canada [emoji24][emoji23]

But the drought monitor….

Low of 24 degrees this morning. Cold morning.

Pretty crazy how quick all the reservoir and ponds completely filled up here. The water table is like just below the surface and everyone is running sump pumps like crazy around here. I walk around New Havens reservoir all the time and its completely filled to the brim. Haven't seen that in many years. We have also had a ton of rain here this month.

Eric Webb touched on this back in November. He said we were exactly following the previous winter precursor patterns that culminated in the super El Niño’s of 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16

As LWX indicated - the thermodynamic environment will be the big question. It seems like the models are in fairly good agreement that the shear environment is going to be pretty insane. Seeing soundings with like 65+ knots of 0-6km shear. Helicity values even for the 0-1km layer are absurd too. But some of these same soundings have CAPE values fairly low. I agree that linear is more likely with maybe embedded circulations. But my question is whether this ends up being one of those pencil thin lines with limited lightning if instability is meager. We'll see - but with those shear numbers I think updrafts could get obliterated as well - we've seen that in similar events before...

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 557 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508- 526-WVZ050>053-055-141000- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Hampshire- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- 557 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Wind Advisories are in effect for areas along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains through tonight. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible, which could lead to isolated wind damage and power outages. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are possible on Monday, some of which could produce significant damage in spots, particularly east of the Blue Ridge. Other severe hazards are possible as well. Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 557 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-141000- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 557 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Wind gusts could approach gale-force over the waters this afternoon into the evening, particularly closer to shore. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are possible on Monday, some of which could produce significant damage in spots, particularly south of I-70. Other severe hazards are possible as well.

CSU-MLP for Monday has wide area of 30% and a max shown of 42.6 right near DC...with hatching showing up in Southern Maryland, SEVA and NE NC. For March - that is extremely impressive....

I can see why the models are going so strong with the El Niño next winter. The last two winters followed the North Pacific strong El Niño precursor pattern. This two winter regime featured a strong -WPO in the Bering Sea and a ridge over the Western North America. But we will need to watch the El Niño development going forward to see if the El Niño is as robust as 2015-2016, 1997-1998, and 1982-1983. Probably need to get through the spring forecast barrier period before we have an idea about next winter. If the previous multiyear composite works out, then the ridge next winter will be centered just north of the Great Lakes into the Northeast. This progression below isn’t a forecast yet, but something to watch for if the El Niño becomes as strong as model forecasts. Plus the sample size only consists of 3 multiyear periods since 1981. 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 winter 500 mb composite 2014-2015, 2013-2014, 1996-1997, 1995-1996, 1981-1982, and 1980-1981 composites Roll forward to the 2015-2016, 1997-1998, and 1982-1983 winters

US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites ·sdptoreoSnma997a669u41tg6fh6f8h58f818c304mh251m1am1606753415 · Ready to hop on the temperature roller coaster?! Temperatures will climb in to the 60s again by Monday and then plummet into the 30s on Tuesday. 'Tis the season for BIG temperature swings.

Low of 26.6 Still a wintry look with the remaining patches of snow.

Lol. Everywhere but paved really, makes for nice distinct lines like landscaping. It looks great right now as the sun is coming up over the ridge

24.4 for a low. 25.5 currently

Found this on facebook I didn't know NWS was doing a storm survey. Nepa Storm Chasers eSnosprdot8ch492c2au0hctgtfa7h30f8lhi1ct786i7mh7um2c3693i7t3 · Dauphin County Tornado Update Some followup on the tornado warned storm in Dauphin County on Wednesday. I have actually drive on the exact road in the exact rural area it struck and there's a solid chance it missed every home as it's extremely rural in Shermans Dale and Blain, PA. The storm would have only been on the ground for a short time maybe 10-15 mins, 3-8 miles max before lifting. This may have hit a house or just tore up some woods but there was clearly evidence to suggest it was causing damage. I clipped a photo of the debris ball with the overlay of the general area it would have been. It's all thick woods and very rural homes. I personally stayed in a cabin about 2-4 miles from the exact spot this storm happened at. I'm very curious to see what the NWS survey team determines when they conclude their investigation. Anyway, thought this may be interesting to everyone. I'll update when I found out. - Espresso

BWI failure meanwhile DCA revised up to 0.2”

Its like the spring barrier doesn't exist. Every year same time all the Nino talk is speculation.

Absolutely! So many memorable experiences this season. Truly an incredible winter. The winter of 26 The Little Devil winter.

20.4° Feels brutal after the past week

Shot with your own gun

How did BWI only have a T? Did they measure after it melted? Did they measure on the tarmac?

Yeah, I agree. It was significantly deeper than the Blizzard of 1888. Had March 1993 taken a benchmark track instead, then we would have had a 40”+ jackpot with 80-100 mph gusts somewhere in the OKX forecast zones and drifts approaching 6-10 feet high in spots. https://www.weather.gov/media/ilm/Overview_Kocin_Schumacher_Morales_Uccelini.pdf