All Activity

On another note, I noticed the CFS is trying to take us to a very strong Nino next winter. I wonder if it’s on to something or it’s just reactionary to what’s currently happening.

Probably won't happen this way, but the end of the month totals on the GFS are fun ( or funny) to look at. Could you imagine this?

Well except for that weird rectangle of nothing immediately east of DC!! Looks like a resolution thing where it's not extending all the way to the coast there. And...that's snow DEPTH? Even more impressive it seems (though as cold as it should be, I imagine the snowfall isn't much different).

On the GFS its mostly how much interaction/phasing occurs out west- more on the 12z while 18z pretty much misses, so ends up flatter/souther downstream with the precip. (see my post a page back) The 18 GEFS closer to 12z wrt that interaction, but a tad later.

Can you put this in layman terms?

I’m gonna go with strong to very strong

Channel 2 here said the American model says hardly any snow is expected. That was what my brother texted me.

Unfortunately, I missed that storm. I was in southern Cal on the baseball field. When I saw the national news and saw that Chattanooga got pounded, I was mad I missed it. I made up for it driving to Big Bear, but nothing is better than "home snow." Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

GEFS snow depth mean looks solid to me.

Perhaps...and I am in no way saying it's correct...But it was just last year that New Orleans and the Gulf Coast got like 8-12" snow which "never could happen in a million years!"

I forgot what beautiful colors there are in meteograms

I can’t wait for the cliff diving after the Ukie takes away our 30 inches. For real though, we still have time to reel this north. At some point though, GFS or Euro have to give.

I'm kind of wondering that. Or if it's almost like two distinct periods that add on to each other? I believe the AIGFS showed two pulses?

GFS is giving Athens, GA 15" of 10:1 snow... their biggest snowfall on record was about 60% of that... (8.7" in 1983). The GooFuS is doing GooFuS things

I don’t know. When I think front loaded winter, I don’t think of a massive arctic outbreak in late January and possible +PNA going into February.

I don't want to sound like an old curmudgeon but you are correct about historically seeing those temps. I remember growing up that Canaan, VT was somewhat regularly the coldest reading in the lower 48. -20 was a pretty regular occurrence and -30 was not uncommon. It's a few years since I've seen -20 here. Having said that, I have an outdoor event Sunday so I wouldn't mind it moderating a bit.

I know this is banter but, yesterday my snow shovel cracked in half. So after work (in between 12z and 18z runs) I bought a new shovel and ice scraper. It seems I may have upset the snow gods. Lucky for us, there is still plenty of time for this to trend better or worse. I know this setup is way different from any other this winter, but the theme up until game time has been a N trend with most systems. Hoping this is no different.

It’s good at picking up storms but not so good at trends. It’s in its goofy stage .

This is from the 12z Euro Ens for mby

I would not put too much stock in Logan's record no 6" single snowstorm streak. Why? 1) The measurement hasn't always been at Logan. It used to be a bit more inland before the airport was built, and Logan is about the *worst* location for BOS city snow since it is surrounded by ocean on 3 sides (doesn't work well for true "city" temps either). Even in recent decades, it always hasn't been at Logan Airport, Starting the mid-90s for a number of years, as one example, it was taken 1 mi away to the N by a trained spotter. 2) The observer measurements have not always been up to par. Too low, too high, not brushing off every 6 hr or more than once every 6 hr, and gaps in observations of snowfall as well. This is not unique to Logan, and some major airports have great observers. I am just pointing out the caveats/shortcomings when it comes to BOS 6" snowfall gap record. 3) When the NWS Modernization occurred in the 90s, once ASOS was installed at climate sites, which are almost always at airports in the U.S., many routine snowfall observations where lost, and some came back, but snowfall was not considered a high priory overall. 4) Of all the major wx parameters we measure, snowfall is the hardest and least accurate due to many factors. Here is an article that covers some of the issues: https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history The point is Logan had 5.3" from this event. Falling short of 6" by less than an inch is well within range of error, esp. for wet snow that compacts easily, and considering the overall challenges of measuring snowfall and long-term records not consistent or subpar at times.

Is it just my phone or does the like button sort of glow now??

Maybe timing differences? Seems like things have slowed down a bit today

Exactly...thank you! Obviously, our ideal would be to have every model on board for a huge event and never waver through game time when we get utterly hammered. But people see several models at 12Z giving us near-historic to historic amounts, then some things at 18Z cut that with ensuing panic. And now suddenly, say if we end up getting "only" a 4-8" event (that would be cold powder mind you!), it's cause for tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth and cries of failure. FFS!