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I just tweaked my carb on mine this weekend. The BEAST is ready to eat....even little crumbs. Unfortunately you are rather similar to us SE'rs (piedmont region) w/ your typical winter weather. That said....we feel your pain. Lets hope things get going soon, and for us realists that sprinkle in some optimist for good flavor, later Jan/Feb was supposted to be the end of winter from some early calls, and if the look holds, it may just be the start of the real fun. For how long....dunno, but it has not been a shutout whatsoever, and I'm not complaining whatsoever........yet.

That flu is no joke! Hope you get well soon John!

Feel better soon. I hope you were able to get on an anti-viral. They say they can really help if started in the first 48 hours.

Yeah, man. Big ol' banana over the top in the medium and LR. EPO -> AO -> NAO.

Classic La Nina.

And who knows if it is correct, but the 12z GFS does have some support from both ensembles and other deterministic runs...the 12z GFS does amplify the pattern after the 25th w/ very cold air getting trapped over NA...just look at the 500 heights. The 0z Euro just about went to the extreme. Big story for 240+(proceed at your own risk...) is the movement of very cold air into NA. Can it get to our latitude? I think it has a chance. Feel better, @John1122! Hopefully @Daniel Booneis on the mend. I haven't seen him post as much recently.

We haven’t been able to get a stable ridge out west and get a shortwave pipeline going. It lasts for a day and something always mucks it up. However we’ll get the cold because of the -WPO but we can’t sustain a better +PNA or even -EPO for that matter.

John get to feeling better. I’ve heard the flu is not easy to have this year. Of course, when is being sick easy lol. They say it’ll knock you on your butt this year.

Probably best to close the shades for the next 10 days and hope that maybe the last week of the month can offer something. ”hoping” something changes before then isn’t forecasting. It’s wishing. Look at the models. It’s not even particularly close to anything interesting

January is not delivering as promised but there are signs of a more active jet stream by the last week of the month. Whether the storm track is white or wet TBD. One cautionary note: the pattern keeps looking good two weeks out. Need to see if it holds this time around.

There’s literally little to no snow opportunities thru day 10-12. I’ve never seen it quite this bad in terms of no hope or opportunity

Meridional flow definitely overcomes a lot of imperfections.

I just posted similar observations about that aspect re recency of the model runs a couple posts ago... I also think that the general user that is "emotionally" triggered by this engagement needs to wait on that changing... because the sooner they accept that is needed, that will go some ways toward ameliorating their angst - and improving their moods. But hey... sometimes I wonder if that's part of the fun for them. Leaving them selves open. I dunno

Cold and dry; warm and wet. The norm.

It’s been steadfast over the last two days. Just complete garbage

Who’s ass you grabbing?

This flu has fought back and is wholloping me currently. Just glad to get to read you guys in here. It helps me because I just don't feel up to even looking at the models.

The ignore feature is well used on this site. Give it a try. .

Are not the EPO and AO still negative also. Both of those being negative usually ends up east of the Rockies being pretty darn cold.

no offense, but that's your personal take. Mine, not at all the same. I like winter and seeing snow....often. Even if nickels n dimes.....often. Like every other day....often peeps need to be reminded that ones perspective is often based on personal likes/dislikes, and thats just fine. But just cause you feel something and post about it...doesnt make it happen. I rarely post w/ my emotion (well in fun sure), but I think most know that I try to keep my personal feelings/wishes out of what I see or share, and try to use some amateur weenie knowledge into possibilities. We've had a not horrible pattern for weeks now, and yes, it feels wasted to us true snowhounds, but up north has been basically snowcovered since thanksgiving (with the exception of a few small periods/days).

Another December type Train incoming??? Lol

Yeah and I think that’s been engrained in our DNA….i know for me it has….but shit…nothing has worked out. At least the other seasons just had garbage patterns/airmass which kind of made for easy predictions. I’m wondering if part of the reason are these tendencies to get those ULLs moving west and elongating near and south of AK. It kills any ridging that allows for more prolonged meridional flow and introduces more interference.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Morristown TN 1129 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-140800- /O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0001.260114T2000Z-260115T1600Z/ Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe- Including the cities of Doeville, Laurel Bloomery, Citico, Gatlinburg, Mountain City, Neva, Unicoi, Cades Cove, Elkmont, Shady Valley, Limestone Cove, Hartford, Hampton, Cedar Creek, Trade, Erwin, and Coker Creek 1129 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, but up to 6 inches for elevations above 5000 feet. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...A portion of east Tennessee. * WHEN...From 3 PM Wednesday to 11 AM EST Thursday.

That 25th-28th timeframe does coincide w/ the MJO potentially trekking into phase 8. Yeah, I looked, but kind of felt like it might impact EC weather. With HL blocking in place, a phase 8-1-2-3 of the MJO circuit, and it being mid-winter....I have seen A LOT worse at this time of year from both teleconnections and modeling.