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GFS is pretty solid for tomorrow. That might be the main rainmaker across the region. Especially Delmarva.

Upstate NY in the jackpot zone again.

The warm pool to the east of Japan began developing during the mid to late 2010s. It’s the first time the ocean there down to the subsurface has warmed this much in the modern monitoring era. It’s appears to be due to the record 500 mb heights leading to light winds and clear skies allow the ocean below to warm. When we had the colder pool in the EPAC in recent years it lead to the record low -PDOs. In the old days the -PDOs were driven by mostly the cooler SSTs in the EPAC rather than the warm anomalies from Japan to south of the Aleutians. Most researchers avoid the term permanent and use persistent or new as a description. What would need to have happen to reverse this pattern would be for low pressure and strong winds to persist in this location with more clouds. If this could be sustained for more than a few months, then there would be a shot at cooling the surface and subsurface. As long as the warm pool persisted off of California, then the PDO could transition to a more strongly positive level like we last saw back in 2015. Current model forecasts have this warm pool east of Japan persisting through December at the same time there is a warm pool off of California. So this effectively brings the PDO closer to neutral it the overlapping warm pools from the West and East. Since these models aren’t the greatest for reliably beyond 8-15 days, we are just going to have to wait and see what the details will be. Plus they have missed the summer -PDO declines recent summers as the ridge to the East of Japan has verified much stronger than seasonal model forecasts. It appears that the subsurface reservoir of record warmth reaching to the surface has resulted in a feedback process between the ocean and atmosphere sustaining the pattern. While it’s still very early in the El Niño process, the big increase in WWBs near and off the equator so far hasn’t had the stronger winds and lower pressures to the East of Japan and to the south of the Aleutians like the developing super El Niño 1997 had during the spring. We would want to see the westerlies increase to the east of Japan and south of the Aleutians especially by next winter to have a chance to begin to get the PDO into more of a positive state.

Probably be some decent rains SOP tomorrow...might be a couple different waves of it

Shear looks better than forecasted last night. Surface winds are nearly due south instead of the more westerly direction shown by the models.

I see the models now longer the rain pretty much all day tomorrow, which is a change. So we should get a decent amount no matter what happens with today's convection, but hopefully we'll see a heavy downpour this afternoon.

Absolutely, but the opposition to the cold side is more boisterous, as the cold contingent has been beaten into submission by CC.

NAM and its replacement

Considering the thick cloud deck and now rain, severe won’t be an issue for Harrisburg today.

Yeah not surprised honestly. Like Scoot said…more synoptic up here and convective down there. If Rufus is the future it still has a dual jack in S NH and the S coast. Funny how the globals are wetter up here than the NAM and HRRR now.

Low 30's to mid 40's across the area this morning with highs expected around 70. I'm sure there was patchy frost in some localized areas.

Hmmm. But the heating usually helps build the storms. I'm not saying it can't happen, but it's less likely. I just picked up 0.02" with the showers that clipped north jersey. I don't think that will be it but this is contingent on some factors coming together, and they don't always. I'm watching the area now over W. Virginia and eastern Kentucky to see how that does and if it builds more as it moves east northeast. Also the area way back in Tennessee and Arkansas would give some potential if it holds and /or redevelops.

Another cool morning with upper 30’s at my place. Eagle Mine about 10 miles nw of me down to 31. Should see mid 60’s today and a bit warmer tonight w/ mid 40’s. Have about 6 weeks of good garden weather before the sun begins to sink behind the trees and hill to my south and west, essentially shading my garden from 3 pm on. Rooting for a couple weeks of mid to upper 80’s and humidity between now and then.

Wagons all around Taunton except Taunton?

WB 12Z RRFS through Tuesday.

June 22 1988: Smoke fills the sky across much of Minnesota due to wild fires during the '88 drought. 1919: The 2nd deadliest tornado in Minnesota history hits Fergus Falls, killing 59 people. Like the #1 killer tornado for Minnesota (73 fatalities in St. Cloud and Sauk Rapids on 4/14/1886), it struck on a weekend. 1917: Grand Meadow has an intense downpour, and 4.98 inches of rain on this date. Corn crops are badly damaged by the heavy rain/flooding. For Monday, June 22, 2026 1947 - Twelve inches of rain fell in forty-two minutes at Holt, MO, establishing a world rainfall record. That record was tied on January 24-25, 1956, at the Kilauea Sugar Plantation in Hawaii, as their state record was established with 38 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The Weather Channel) 1972 - Hurricane Agnes deluged Pennsylvania and New York State with torrential rains resulting in the most costly flood in U.S. history. In the Middle Susquehanna Valley of Pennsylvania, 24 hour rainfall amounts were generally 8 to 12 inches, with up to 19 inches in extreme southwestern Schuylkill County. At Wilkes-Barre, PA, the dike was breached destroying much of the town. Flooding resulted in 117 deaths and 3.1 billion dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1981 - A young woman from Lubbock, TX, was struck by lightning. The bolt of lightning struck just above her right shoulder near her neck, and passed right to left through her body, tearing her warm-ups, causing her tennis shoes to explode, and lifting her two feet into the air. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms in southern Texas produced wind gusts to 116 mph near Quemado. Thunderstorms in New York State produced 5.01 inches of rain in 24 hours at Buffalo, an all-time record for that location, and produced an inch of rain at Bath, PA. The temperature at Fairbanks AK soared to 92 degrees, establishing a record for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Sixty-five cities in twenty-four states reported record high temperatures for the date. Tucson AZ reported an all-time record high of 114 degrees, surpassing the previous record of 112 degrees established a day earlier. Highs of 98 degrees at Pittsburgh, PA, and 100 degrees at Baltimore, MD, tied records for the month of June. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Record cold temperatures were reported in the High Plains Region. Rapid City, SD, reported a record low of 39 degrees, in sharp contrast to their record high of 102 degrees two days earlier, on the 20th. (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 22 Mon National Limoncello Day 22 Mon National Onion Ring Day 22 Mon National Chocolate Eclair Day 22 Mon World Rainforest Day 22 Mon National HVAC Tech Day 22 Mon National Pet Choking Prevention Day 22 Mon Positive Media Day

Got you beat - I had 22.

I just had 20 drops fall on my yard. Heading due east....

So much for wagons North.

the cluster now in WV is headed our way, but will is survive the mountains?

most of the storms are overnight so it's not a heating type setup.

My guy stops cutting which is nice. I feel bad for the loss of income though

Obviously some hyperbole there, but I jsut don’t see anything deep summer for a long time aside for a few days to start July.

Yo Don... something to maybe keep an eye on. The longer range ensembles from all, EPS/GEPS/GEFS are doing something interesting. First, a strong -PNA wave function sweeps the continent. An ~ 90W ridge balloons. However, just when the heat is poised to move in here, we either only get day or so, or perhaps a failure/ shunt entirely. The reason is the total scaffolding suddenly, rather abruptly ( suspicious, more below) en mass the fields roll back out W. Not clear why that is happening and it is suss, but that reposition to the Sonoran Desert/PHX region instead would make Europe seem a like a mild day to the Inuit. Talking 120+ to perhaps the big 1 3 0s Hell hath no fury should a Sonoran Heat Release ever actually happen. About that... not sure it will. The hemisphere has been persistent really since last summer. Year's worth or more ( frankly) and counting. Hell bent on making sure we continue what happened all last winter: SE Can/NE U.S. is the coolest relative to the whole planet despite every month at a Global empirical result being 1, 2 or 3 warmest since thermometers were invented. Right now, currently being in 3rd place for historic inferno at a Global scale for June; which is likely end in 2nd or even vying for 1st. This looking back along this behavior, it's about a .75 to .12 C gain to loss ratio/behavior, so granted, I'm only roughing a linear extrapolation; if so the abv slope figures for about 16.8 by the end these next 9 days but we'll see.... One thing I'm noticing about that retro/heat rollback west, however... It looks too sudden, at too large of a scale. The entire mass of the planet won't do this typically. It seems to be happening right as the entire scope of the hemisphere ( in all three ens systems) suddenly abandons the anomaly distribution. All wave functions, on-going, just abruptly dissolve/collapse into base-line above average everywhere ... Odd. that en mass unilateral holistic behavior all at once ... mmm that's suss to me. But we'll see.

Seems like tomorrow morning is our best shot, but that could easily miss south.