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UKIE making the right moves through 72

uncle?

The trend is undeniable, I hope we all score fellas. But the gfs has burnt us all more times than not .

That's what we like to see. Positive trends.

Alright step #1 complete. Number of 2”+ hits dramatically increased, while retaining a few big dogs too. Nice to see that upper end still exists.

Nonsense or not this is the third run GFS in a row today that has shown a fairly impactful event running the whole way up.. starting all the way down in New Orleans with accumulating snow. Still not impacting C-PA or most of the LSV, but this is way more wound up than anything else. 0z vs 18z GFS. I’m using a 10:1 map so I can do the 48 hr total and separate out the other LES and light snows leading up to this. 18z Euro did try to come toward this scenario a bit, having a snow swath down to the Gulf Coast (starting in FL panhandle) but not as robust and mostly offshore. I dunno, progressive and positive tilt along with a lack of phasing probably argues towards the Euro end of things. On the other hand, could argue this has room to come west given axis of what is now a massive western ridge is along the Pacific Coast. New RGEM and Canadian don’t dig the responsible shortwave anywhere near as far down as GFS/Euro and it comes out faster and fires the coastal by Sunday morning off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This actually does impact C-PA with lighter snows but really impacts New England, pretty much a late blooming coastal solution for us with no snow anywhere near the Deep South. Certainly a lot of differences for an event that’s already starting in the outer reaches of NAM range.

Euro needs to join the party.

Yes!! Some really strong members.

Lagging vorticity I was referring to was here... this could be feedback from the line of convection sweeping off southeast coast, I'm not sure as 6z GFS hinted at this too, but it disrupts much better cyclogenesis. Otherwise, we'd have a huge hit.

Yessir!!!!

Longitudinal trends on this will be driven by trough dynamics rather than downstream features

Well that a lil better !! I'll have to get the real potent coffee in the morning !!

Go to bed happy now.

does it show a stronger storm?

Precursor advy event for the interior still there as well

Hey at least it runs a half hour earlier now, lol

Wow that is an improvement over 18z GEFS!!

Probably some shuffling back and forth with so much time left. The last few years of coastal failures have left me a bit skeptical. If it looks similar in 24 hours then maybe we're out of the woods with the 'what can go wrong will go wrong' feeling.

no high to our north or east, this could trend another 50-100 miles west

Is that gulf moisture trying to connect to pacific ?

Oh crap. After seeing the GFS.. now I gotta wait up for the euro lol.. looks like I'll be groggy at work tomorrow!!! Ahh the pains of being a weather nut!!!

Well, well, well. Would you look at that, the wind is back, shocking! Currently 35.8/27.9 with WNW 11 gusting 24 mph. Had a shower a while ago, but maybe 0.01 to 0.02 fell.