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This is from the CIPS website...kinda fun to peruse... https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php

Spit my soda at this

GFS basically holds at 6z. It’s either going to fail miserably and cave at some point or be right. IMO this is a SEVA/ENC special. Maybe we get a glancing blow in RIC

Baltimore County closed today, 2hr delay tomorrow

0Z CFS is good; no idea if it is ever right.

I don’t know half the people posting ITT. So many new folks. So much banter.

Yeah, with heavy snow 50 miles to the south on models that never trend north, it’s time to stop tracking. See you Monday. Gonna miss your always insightful posts.

So a 60 mile shift north and we're getting the goods. 60 miles at a lead time of 4 days is nothing. Also notice the highest snowfall has backed to the south of us (S VA) in 6z instead of remaining east in 0z.

This might actually be worth chasing. That looks like a legit blizzard. Sucks we gotta travel to NC for it lol

Yes, I believe that’s the case.

It won't. Hopefully just slight movements north with such a strong arctic high.

My forecasted low was adjusted from 4 to 2 last I checked around 9pm. It's currently -8

Really thought we’d see more of the bigger totals eventually move this way. And I am still nervous about those minimas showing up on all the models. But, snow is snow. Let’s see where it ends up

I’m not. Definitely moving the wrong direction. Need it to trend back south.

WB 6Z GEFS. Still about 50% chance for area wide event; higher SE

6z GEFS

EB 6Z GEFS compared to OZ

Here are the latest models. 7 of them. All of them in agreement about the ULL sliding moisture. Vary degrees of intensity. and then the GFS with the coastal lol

Still ok on the mean

Traditionally, this is where you would want the models losing the storm. Not sure how well we can forecast the upstream kicker yet. The primary, on the other hand, really looks like it winds up wayyyy too far into the deep south. Still not buying it. By 12z tomorrow, we can either throw in the towel or get ready to throw snow.

I just really wanted to see the snow piles and the chaos that ensued with how much snow is around but what are ya gonna do

You shouldn't be surprised.

Excellent trends on the 06z NAM. The upper levels show digging into the Missouri bootheel and NE Arkansas at 75 where it was east of the Mississippi at 0z. 84 land shows the beginnings of a lee side low behind the main one which is 250 miles ENE off the space coast (lol). RGEM holds serve mostly. It's been a minute since looking but the surface pressure gradient seemed slightly less positive tilt and overall org a bit smudgier. Cold might be a little punchier if the 500mb level translates.

That southern line of the cutoff continues to move north though.