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Sun is winning here at the moment. Gonna be a fight all day but currently mostly cloudy and fair weather bright conditions…

Fair, but if we are talking social media isn't it more likely to be overhyped than under?

Morning storms looking fairly robust too. Saw some peeks of sun outside too

Short range guidance seems underwhelmed with high temps today.

This helicity setup shows this could be a repeat of the April 2011 for the Carolinas. Any spacing between the storms or break ups of the squall line could be a strong tornadic supercell or a few tornadic supercells with the right environment that would be for a long-track tornado or multiple tornadoes.

Is the nam actually doing something legit or is that just noise? I understand that we've been trending minorly better for NE IL again but

The issue is social media. SPC stuff gets posted and reposted pretty virally both with/and without explanations from whoever is posting it.

I'd argue the general public doesn't look at SPC at all, and most of them rely almost exclusively on weather apps if they even think about the forecast. A severe thunderstorm/tornado watch/warning day of is where 98% of the public that pays attention will tune in.

I think a good way to communicate to the public that these risks show is saying the SPC (severe weather prediction center) have put us in a risk level of 4/5. This risk is reserved for 2-5 times a decade usage in our area. It sounds a lot more threatening than "we're in a moderate risk from the SPC"

12z hrrr has a few cells west of dc that push ne into Maryland then kinda merge with the line.

Hard pass on a 16+hr drive to chase linear mode low topped thunderstorms with fast moving embedded tornadoes. If you even see one you're probably too close. But take the drive out if it and of course

CIG categories will also be helpful in differentiating QLCS spinups from tornado producing supercell threats. I believe this will also be helpful for tornado threats associated with tropical systems.

I think SPC in general (probably more a discussion for the general severe thread) is not geared well towards public consumption. A person sees "slight risk" and doesn't take the threat seriously. Or they see "10% tornado" and are like big deal. We as weather weenies know how to evaluate this - but average Joe is not now, or in the past going to fundamentally understand SPC outlook categories or percentages. Some of the switch to "level X out of X" has helped - but hasn't eliminated the issue.

March 15 1941: The 'Ides of March Blizzard' occurs. Winds reached hurricane force at Twin Cities. 32 people died. For Sunday, March 15, 2026 1941 - The most severe blizzard in modern history struck North Dakota and Minnesota. The blizzard hit on a Saturday night while many are traveling, and thus claimed 71 lives. Winds gusted to 75 mph at Duluth MN, and reached 85 mph at Grand Forks ND. Snow drifts twelve feet high were reported in north central Minnesota. A cold front traveling 30 mph crossed Minnesota in just seven hours. (15th-16th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A winter storm in the western U.S. produced heavy snow in central Nevada, with 23 inches reported at Austin. High winds raked the desert areas of southern California and southern Arizona. Winds gusted to 59 mph at Douglas AZ. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - More than one hundred hours of continuous snow finally came to an end at Marquette MI, during which time the city was buried under 43 inches of snow. Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S., with forty-one cities reporting record low temperatures for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather from Alabama to the Middle Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 80 at Virginia Beach VA. Low pressure in southeastern Ontario produced high winds in the northeastern U.S. Winds gusted to 70 mph at Saint Albins VT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Low pressure crossing the Upper Mississippi Valley produced high winds from the Northern and Central Plains to the Great Lakes Region and Ohio Valley. Winds gusted to 73 mph at Iowa City IA, and wind gusts reached 79 mph at Waukesha WI. Winds of 75 mph were reported around Rapid City SD, with gusts to 100 mph. Up to a foot of snow was reported in western Iowa, western Minnesota, and extreme eastern North Dakota. Blizzard conditions were reported in northeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

I feel that the CIG categories could be confusing to the general public but I also feel the old lower probabilities weren’t too helpful to the general public either. Especially before enhanced/marginal were introduced. I do think the higher probabilities gets the word out better for borderline severe/sub severe squall lines and line segments that produce widespread winds.

Yeah this has serious potential down that way tomorrow. I imagine the power outages are going to be quite high

Cross posting in here for @Mrs.J

3/15 Sunrise: 7:08AM Sunset: 7:03 PM Daylight: 11H: 55M Gained 2H15M from the winter lull Roughly Equivalent to Sep 27th Gaining a annual max of 2:43 seconds now and through the next week. First 12 hour day on March 17 1th

If you had the time that would be a decent road trip.

Nudged just above 32 here as a line of thunderstorms is about to move through. Will be curious to see what kind of precip they have

I was a law enforcement officer in Durham for 30 years and retired in 2016. I was responsible for providing motorcycle and vehicle escorts to and from athletic events for Duke. I brought the bb team back from 3 National Championships in my career. Got to provide security for Coach K on many occasions. Just hope that Patrick G and Foster are able to return for the tournament. Go Duke

*URGENT* So I need some help. The older Ms. J is currently on a film project for her senior capstone aka student run project. She is a AD, assistant Director, on the current project. Anyways part of the AD’s job is safety. They are shooting in studio on AU’s campus Media Production Center. It is in the basement of the building so thinking that is the shelter for the building anyways. She has asked me to let her know the threat level. She texted me this morning. “if it is seeming enough that we either may lose power or have to shelter in place worse case scenario I have to hold a safety meeting tonight to tell everyone to get here safely tomorrow and another one tomorrow with protocols." If anyone can advise me. I have been following along with the two threads here on this set up but I am far from an expert on this. She is really big on doing her job correctly and wants to keep everyone safe so I told her I would help her with this as much as I can. Because her and I are huge weather buffs I am happy that she is on top of this as it may be something that is overlooked by others. I thank anyone in advance if I can give her a clearer understanding for her area of NW DC.

SPC Outlook maps for tomorrow as of the 1 AM update SPC AC 150607 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe storms are forecast on Monday for parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Tornadoes, potentially strong, and particularly damaging winds are most likely from South Carolina into Maryland during the afternoon. Significant severe storm potential overall will extend from eastern Georgia/Florida Panhandle into Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A large and deepening upper trough will pivot northeastward out of the OH/TN Valleys, across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic on Monday, while a surface low deepens into southern Quebec. A sharp pre-frontal trough will extend southward across NY, PA, and into the Carolinas/GA by late afternoon, with a corridor of significant pressure falls timed with the diurnal heating maximum. A cold front will push rapidly east across GA and the FL Panhandle during the day with a bit slower progress across the Piedmont and into PA. Gusty south winds ahead of the cold front will maintain 60s F dewpoints across the entire region, and as far north as southern PA, just after warm front passage by late afternoon. Just above the surface, southerly 850 mb winds will increase from 50 to 75 kt, resulting in extreme shear profiles over a large area. Large-scale ascent and shear will increase coincident with the peak heating hours, resulting in a potentially widespread severe weather event during the afternoon. ...From Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Early day storms may be ongoing from the southern Appalachians toward the FL Panhandle Monday morning, and the environment will already be favorable for supercells including tornado potential. Forecast soundings indicate substantial instability with mid to perhaps upper 60s F along with ample shear. These storms may also produce hail, as midlevel lapse rates approach 7 C/km. ...Carolinas into MD/PA and vicinity... Areas of showers may occur early in the day especially but should rapidly lift north, allowing areas of heating and gradual destabilization over the entire area. As the surface trough deepens, low-level wind will back and strengthen throughout the day. Supercells producing tornadoes appear most likely ahead of the cold front from SC into NC and southern VA. Models vary with degree of instability, but strong tornadoes do appear possible with effective SRH of at least 300-400 m2/s2. Fast storm motions over 50 kt suggest a long tracked tornado will be possible. Meanwhile, a robust line of storms will develop as the cold front pushes east, stretching from the Carolinas to southern NY. With a moist air mass and large-scale support, this line is expected to produce particularly damaging winds, along with QLCS tornadoes across the remainder of SC/NC, VA, MD, and much of southern PA. This will likely peak during the late afternoon hours. The activity may eventually interact with cool trajectories off the Atlantic during the evening. ..Jewell.. 03/15/2026

See SEPA is totally screwed severe wise if the HRRR is right, this crap at 18z tomorrow basically ruins the entire threat, dc into central pa though look under the gun