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Actually it’s hanging by the WPC 95th percentile map at 18z a few posts back it seems

This past weekend storm, it showed a lack in precip when compared to the globals. The actual QPF was a lot closer to what the NAM was showing 24 hrs before the storm than what any of the globals had.

https://www.weather.gov/akq/winter

I was so confident we’d at least get a few inches . But it’s hanging by a single thread admittedly

it's the worst possible setup with multiple lows, moving parts, and the shards of vorts. that was evident three? days ago I hope this hits as a BLIZZARD just to prove me wrong, though.

Definitely seems like the way we might be leaning for this winter and future weather life to come. So when do we get the AI NAM?

Removing the outliers, the sref plume shows 6 to 15 inches for rdu .

They’re the pros for a reason, I would imagine they’re thinking the surface low forms a little closer to the coast per climo and holding off on changing anything until they see otherwise. Also really high rates are going to help them. 18-1 rates only need 1/2” qpf to give rdu 9”

it's almost too cold/dry to see a decent timing for recovery.

When was the last time the NAM was more correct over the Euro? Not a smart remark but a serious question? .

Yes, it won't look like the map. Someone will see way less, maybe (probably) me. It is just odd that the models show certain trends and the tv mets are dry slot this lower totals that and the professionals keep putting out graphics that say hold my beer. New graphics just came out, no change. It's fascinating.

I couldn’t do that! So funny!!

At this point, let’s just see if we can get flakes flying in the air this weekend.

Well their justification is that you’ll get downsloped as the meso low pulls away, which is logical, but I think my point is that undersells the meso low. The accumulation will have already happened by then for the most part. As soon as we slack on flow, it’s a downsloping issue all the way to charlotte. It doesn’t discount the thumping that happens before then.

0z HRRR is still out of range, but looks to be coming around so far

It's still weighing the 12z Euro ensemble cluster is my guess. a ton of huge hits on those

How u doing over her blue turd? I hope you get a foot!!

Gulf of America effect snow . It’s actually modeled . Crazy

Yea several of the regulars keep pointing out concern for McDowell, Burke, Rutherford. This is one I’m keeping low expectations and hope for a major surprise.

Tampa?

Will this arctic blast kill the spotted lantern fly larvae??

@RUNNAWAYICEBERGLet WPC get into his weed stash it seems .

It really is. I face South, and the last 2 days where the spots where pavement is exposed have expanded drastically. Lots of refreezed crust ice at the edges, a tell tale sign of melting.

You could make a compelling case today that the only guidance worth looking at until the short range for Ptype is the AIFS and you’d probably be right. This hobby is a lot less fun that way but it’s perhaps the way we are rolling.

I still think advisory is on table for Cape but its tenuous