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Andy Hazelton @AndyHazelton · 55m If #Melissa does end up turning west over the Caribbean south of Jamaica (like the HAFS/HMON/Euro forecasts show), I don't think it's hyperbolic to say we will likely get a Category 5, and quite possibly one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic. -Deep, warm

This is a patently misleading piece. While it correctly observes that “climate-related deaths… have declined by 98%,” it omits the critical context that renders the statistic meaningful. These deaths have not fallen because the climate has become more stable or benign. They have fallen because humanity has vastly improved its capacity to anticipate and withstand disasters through through advances in forecasting, infrastructure, public health, and global wealth. Without these four variables, the claim would be indefensible. The article also misrepresents the scientific community by alleging that climate scientists “suppress” inconvenient facts. In reality, the scientific literature is filled with discussions of uncertainties, feedbacks, and trade-offs. Vigorous internal debate is a defining feature of climate science, not evidence of censorship. What is not in dispute is that the primary driver of ongoing climate change is anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. That conclusion is based on converging lines of empirical evidence and fundamental physical principles. Given this state of knowledge, the burden of proof now rests squarely on self-described skeptics. If they wish to challenge the established consensus, they must produce a credible, coherent, and empirically validated alternative theory. Their theory must be capable of explaining the observed climate evolution at least as well as the current scientific framework. Mere objections are not sufficient. That won't happen. To succeed, such skeptics would have to overturn the basic physics of radiative transfer and atmospheric thermodynamics that underpin understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

It seems like the less latitude it gains in the next 72hrs, the more it gets tucked back under the ridge and bombs in the following 72 hrs, like the Euro and Cmc are showing. The Icon and Gfs show it gaining more latitude in the first 72hrs, then interacting with land when it tries to bomb.

poleward shift of the pac jet = an alaskan vortex as far as the eye can see. no shots of arctic or subarctic air through the next couple of weeks, probably longer. mjo does look like it wants to push out into the pacific. eyeing mid to late november for a potential equatorward shift of the pac jet which would increase chances of popping a -epo depending on where this jet exits.

We had a pretty good period of dime to nickel sized hail yesterday afternoon. It was quite noisy at work. I didn't get any pictures but it was quite possibly the largest hail I have ever seen. We normally only get small stuff around here if any at all.

You’re going to need a hell of a trough for that

Sandy 2.0 is coming hard

0.45" here Should about do it

39 degrees spread between high and low at IAD yesterday. They are now almost 9" below normal for the calendar year.

Makes me want to flush myself down a toilet lol

BAM Weather

After seeing no ticks from late June thru mid September, the little horrors are back in force. Yesterday's woods walk included pushing through some dense sapling stands and I brought home (and dispatched) 10 deer ticks.

Halloween now looks very cold. A few ensemble members bring the 528dm into the Northeast.. there is a pretty good spread and variation for that trough though.

Well.. yesterday, they had the track heading up between Cuba & Haiti .. today they now show it crawling and taking a left turn under Jamaica. So... If it does continue on this trend, then we will have a very strong Hurricane on our hands. I also think that this would allow it eventually to pull northward and at least give us some precipitation, or a better chance of precipitation than if it were to have had directly up through Haiti as it showed yesterday. Something to track

The paper describes precisely what one would expect when the linear stability of a complex system begins to erode. The “pushing and triggering” forces are now overwhelming the Arctic’s stabilizing feedbacks. As a result, the ocean–ice–atmosphere system is reorganizing into a new regime that is defined by higher temperatures, diminished sea ice, accelerated ice-sheet loss, and increasingly frequent and intense climatic extremes. On account of of Earth-system hysteresis, once a new state emerges, atmospheric CO2 concentrations would have to fall well below current levels merely to restore the Arctic to its present state. Such a reversal appears extraordinarily unlikely in any plausible future scenario. Despite clear scientific evidence and full awareness of the consequences of amplified greenhouse forcing, humanity continues to pursue a trajectory of intensifying emissions. During the Mid-Pliocene, the Arctic was roughly 7°C to 10°C warmer than the pre-industrial baseline, even at CO2 levels comparable to today’s. This suggests that substantial additional warming lies ahead. Humanity’s climate-engineering effort, which can no longer be described as inadvertent given today's state of knowledge, has already driven the Arctic roughly one-third to one-half of the way toward a Mid-Pliocene state. In that period, Greenland’s ice sheet was drastically smaller, and the Arctic Ocean was seasonally ice-free. Given the constraints of human cognition and the deep inertia shaping collective decision-making, it is difficult to imagine this paper will meaningfully alter society’s choice to continue to dump vast amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

It's good practice for the winter...don't trust the models beyond 48hrs. (Even at 48hrs, you're taking your chances.)

There are quite few analogs for the time of year and Melissa's expected path and intensity. https://x.com/yconsor/status/1980991500482994204

I’m still deeply skeptical for here, and don’t think any purely tropical solution is on the table, but if this ends up with a slower and further west track there could be some bend back or hybrid situation as Melissa gets pulled from the Caribbean. To me it’s still all about what troughing looks like at the end of October. Much like the nor’easter earlier in the month you don’t need a direct hit for impacts if it’s going baroclinic/post-tropical.

Well while Mother Nature did not provide, Pandora did. Fell asleep to my Thunderstorm rain station last night. Props to those who got some rain and thunder.

The trend is not anyone’s friend in Jamaica and Cuba. Melissa has exceptionally high end potential as the only system all season that’s now squarely in the powder keg of the Caribbean.

Some rare fair and balanced climate views.... https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/commentary/2025/10/16/activism-has-damaged-the-climate-science-debate/

Agree. I also think we may get out of the gates quickly.

Low of 45.5F 0.11" of rain

Yup and I really think this could be a threat up here.. not even wish casting.. the flooding could be insane for them

Yea, I don't expect ton of snow, probably less than 1995-1996