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CoastalWx concern is the 12z ECMWF op still no on board!!! What can go wrong, will! This is not as straightforward as it seems, the Fri event could muck up things enough so a flatter ECMWF could happen.

Everyone that opens this thread will see Scott’s post on the top of this page. We need to get to another page

with marginal temps would need heavier precip otherwise urban areas could have trouble accumulating lighter rates

I did notice that although the vort was stronger on the mean, it was broader and the tilt wasn't quite as negative (to my eyes). Starting to wonder if it's an increase in dispersiveness among the ensembles before they "reset" towards a likelier outcome (this typically happens at 4-6 day lead times, where AI ensembles have the opposite problem - under dispersiveness).

Dumbfounded?

Slight step back here. More notable further north where they lost a few inches. Wonder if some more dynamic solutions were kicked out. Still waiting on individual members/medians.

Snow depth 9"

It has held on longer than expected. The sunny/open areas are grassy while shaded areas are still mostly snow covered. I'm starting to get in Spring mode. I'd still take a big storm but with the October sun angle out there is just isn't the same. Birds are out... and first signs of rabbits and skunks around so Spring is near.

the eps is only an advisory level event

Oh don't worry, it'll get worse before this evolution is over.

Euro AI ensemble definitely more amplified 6z to 12z based off NYC forum. Pretty good westerly leaning cluster

Go into your profile and past image posts and delete them! Eventually, you hit your limit on space from your posts. You hit that limit

I'm already warning my buddy in SNJ that I'm coming up with my shovel and a good attitude

If you have a ton of previous attachments that you've done then it starts to limit your attachment file size. You have to go into your account settings and delete old attachments and it will increase your attachment size limits.

My expectations remain tempered. Too many SE leaning members across the ens.

yes because the GEFS suck! The EPS is way more accurate than its op at this stage, I never use the GEFS!

Damn.. he had my hopes up.

AI-EPS at 00z Monday. 00z - 06z - 12z runs in that order.

i think we had our big storm this year; and it was a doozy. as for being due.....where you around from 1984-93? ok, jan 87 featured a good one in north jersey and one in south jersey. and that was it. we can go a long time between big snows. we just went 5 years, though 2024 had a big one locally here in nj, i believe it was an inverted trough, help me out here folks.....

The GEFS are vastly different that the OP GFS-would you toss the GFS op? Nope b/c it shows the preferred solution

March 1st on today's euro spring warmth-NOT More Alaska

To be exact, March 10, 1958. 12.5 inches at Staunton.

Why is the max file size so low on this thread? I can't even copy and paste frames from PW anymore.

Hush now Paul. Winter is back and you cant stop it