All Activity

On the cusp...guidance all over the place

It's a thread the needle type deal because too far of a trend and it'll get ripped apart by the Antilles/Cuba. Long way to go though...guidance all over the place. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96): Satellite imagery indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, have become better organized tonight. If the current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a short-lived tropical depression or storm later today. However, environmental conditions are expected to become hostile beginning on Friday, likely ending its chances for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Adams

The only caution flag is that we've had several seasons recently where the Atlantic was dead in August, only to come to life in September and October. Now, my forecast contemplates that and doesn't foresee some sort of structural change that makes the basin more favorable, but I highly doubt we end up with nothing.

83/67 for a nice summer day. That rain helped the dews today.

Wow, you forecasted a -PNA in 23-24. Congrats on that, I think that's a really good forecast. PNA region ended up having an anomaly of +45dm for DJFM

We haven't had a +PNA month in 7 months. Recent winters have skewed very ridgey in the N. Pacific relative to ENSO. I mean I don't think this winter will have a la nina pattern but I would definitely not expect a N. Pacific vortex like 97-98, 82-83, 15-16 in the mean.

I don't hate the Thursday severe setup. Parameters are not high-end for sure, but there is probably enough instability and shear to justify the SLGT risk. CAMs prefer areas to the east and northeast of DC. Several have an idea of initial storms in northeast MD backbuilding through the Baltimore area and eventually into Howard/PG/AA Counties before sinking south towards Charles/Calvert/St Marys. It's an odd evolution, but given that it shows up in multiple evening CAMs, I can't discount it.

We track?

Keeps shifting west

It's located on the running trail that goes behind the baseball fields. Feel free to stop by.

The big heat for next week has always been a question mark due to the possibility of onshore flow. Models backed off, but it's still a close call on whether we'll get the heat or it stays to the south and west.

folks interested in looking at the definitive data for New England electricity generation and transmission definitely should check out the ISO New England website @Laymanlinked above, the data are nearly endless and highly informative https://www.iso-ne.com/isoexpress/ it's worth noting that the 7-day capacity forecast includes temperature and dew point forecasts for both Boston and Hartford. one of the most fascinating graphs from ISO NE is how much and how quickly the 5 minute locational marginal price for a MWH changes

Heat has backed off for late august/early september timeframe. Forky in shambles.

Yes, what does the state *import*. They seem to have left that out. But never let such facts interfere w/ a desired narrative or virtue signaling. "but you can call yourself green because it's a larger share --- and then import the lion's share of your electric from a non-green heavy grid." The fine art of cherry-picking and playing w/ numbers!

Of course. Right, there are about 50 magnitude 4-5 quakes every day. So how does that work? Did CC "target" Nepal for some reason? The Himalayan chain is very prone to quakes due to the Indian Plate collision. And this was only a moderate quake. Law of averages and large numbers say something like this is going to happen from time to time, a concept the MSM and many grifters ignore or lack. So did the AK Lituya Bay quake and landslide megatsunmai in 1958, what caused that? The idea that sfc temp changes cause quakes anything more that frostquakes is ridiculous. Quakes original far down often in superheated or molten areas. And regardless of CC, the topmost layer going down 10s of ft experience massive thermal stress year round unevenly around the globe w/ the change of seasons, and not just from temp, but rain/snow/ice as well. The Moon's pull alone "works over" the Earth's crust constantly, and likely triggers many smaller of the quakes we see every day, along w/ tides, so there is no sensitivity tipping point or whatever!

Agreed. If it can hold the convection overnight and still looks like this on first visible pictures we should have a least a TD by tomorrow 5am....maybe even a TS if we get a good ASCAT pass over the next 6-10 hours. Winds were marginal TS earlier but circulation was not completely closed off, no west wind. This satellite pic looks healthy. Thinking along the lines of TD or TS next 2-3 days then weakening beyond that and perhaps if it can hold together enough some regeneration north of the islands or east of the Bahamas down the road. Most guidance has shifted south and west last few days indicative of a weaker system I believe.

Funny thing is that wouldn't be true because 13 years ago was 2013, which was a very quiet season. All storms that year were either TS or C1. All of the notable hurricanes came during the active seasons of 2010, 2011, and 2012, which were 14-16 years ago.

Index Value Predicted '23-'24 DM Value Range Actual '23-'24 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) -.30 to -.60 -1.51 Biased .91 positive Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) -.35 to -.65 +.55 Biased .90 negative ENSO OND 1.7-1.9 ONI EMI: .6 - .8 (West Tilt Basin-Wide) NDJ 2.0 EMI: .30 .01 degree too cool and one month too early. Biased .30 West (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) +.30 to +.60 -.04 Biased .34 positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) -.30 to -.60 -.10 Biased .20 negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) +.10 to -.20 +.76 Biased .66 negative

All of a sudden looks like TS Dolly...

That's good info. I thought the video looked odd for a typical flash flood. I saw one video where it was all this dark dust/debris at first, like a cloud.

I'd be careful about how solar and wind are pushed as "supplying more of the power" or "taking over." They play w/ numbers and cherry-pick stats for particular hours or days. What matters is in long-term mean and going by any state, region, or even country can be misleading b/c we share electricity across borders. Grids are not isolated in many areas of the world. Also, even though solar/wind is on rise, coal/gas as a whole is also on the rise in many countries. China leads the way in solar, but they also lead the way in new coal plants coming online and coal consumption, avg 2 new plants a week. So yes, solar in increasing but not as a percentage overall. This is where they play w/ numbers, giving absolute power output for solar and leaving out total percentage of use by all energy sources overall for the grids.

HRRR brings storms in between 6 and 8 tomorrow night