All Activity

2014????...I think you are thinking of 2015...

We need some rain, awfully dry lately.

Same people never learn

Funny how being only 3 days into November, and it’s warm, we have people talking no snow for NYC, and also NYC above freezing all winter long. I wonder what the same people thought when Xmas Eve was 73-74 degrees in 2014?

What are you even talking about? Hasn’t rained for many in 3 weeks. A small area east of 95 may get some rain Friday. Not widespread and beyond that there’s nothing showing up. So ya it’s been dry for many of us and continues to look that way.

ECMWF has been trending toward a sharper/more amplified upper level trough Fri/Sat, with more pronounced convergence/vorticity at lower levels. The rainfall amounts it is forecasting would likely be enough to lead to flash flooding from E. LI to SE New England, despite the dry soils.

The relative Oct monthly NOAA OISST was just released: more E based as we already knew Year…..Mo….1+2…….3……….3.4………4 2026 4 1.16 0.07 0.43 -0.03 2026 5 1.40 0.68 0.56 0.46 2026 6 2.33 1.21 0.75 1.04 2026 7 2.84 1.73 0.34 1.38 2026 8 3.35 2.49 0.10 1.75 2026 9 4.01 3.00 0.00 2.09 2026 10 4.43 3.56 0.11 2.47

Will 2nd the notion that MTB is a great cross training sport. The terrain reading techniques easily translate from one sport to another.

The AAM has in recent days become more balanced than it was before by latitude: @40/70 Benchmark

70 here

I hope it was just awful luck. Like they diverted around one storm and accidently ended up directly in the path of an explosive developing cell.

Yeah, that’s why the cliff jumping vexes me.

Would be wild, but I think NYC's most modest winter low is something like 22. That might be beatable but a 10° leap - nasomuch.

72 on Nov 3rd.

78 outside, 80 inside. A/C is going on... Nothing from the sprinkles yesterday. Will likely see an 80+ this week.

Yeah sunny 71 here a gorgeous day

The megathread in r/Aviation is eye opening. It's almost like they flew into a perfect recipe for disaster.

Not to derail the thread too much, but this story out of Florida, re: the Leer jet ice up, is wild to me. RIP all who perished.

Blue skies

Only fitting to see weeks without rain to get 3"+ in a day.

000 CXUS51 KILN 010531 CF6DAY PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) STATION: DAYTON OH MONTH: OCTOBER YEAR: 2026 LATITUDE: 39 54 N LONGITUDE: 84 12 W TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 85 65 75 13 0 10 0.00 0.0 0 12.1 21 230 M M 6 28 240 2 75 51 63 1 2 0 0.61 0.0 0 10.4 17 20 M M 9 1 24 210 3 68 46 57 -4 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.2 17 70 M M 2 24 100 4 75 46 61 0 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.9 12 330 M M 4 19 300 5 68 46 57 -3 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.0 18 40 M M 0 26 30 6 69 43 56 -4 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.1 13 150 M M 0 17 170 7 78 49 64 4 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.0 23 230 M M 1 29 240 8 75 52 64 5 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 6.4 21 300 M M 1 27 330 9 75 48 62 3 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.8 12 160 M M 4 16 110 10 68 54 61 3 4 0 0.04 0.0 0 8.9 17 140 M M 9 1 24 110 11 63 58 61 3 4 0 0.02 0.0 0 7.5 16 110 M M 10 1 21 120 12 79 56 68 10 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 8.2 15 220 M M 7 12 20 200 13 87 66 77 20 0 12 T 0.0 0 11.7 21 240 M M 4 27 240 14 84 62 73 16 0 8 0.24 0.0 0 9.7 16 230 M M 7 18 21 300 15 72 58 65 9 0 0 0.13 0.0 0 8.9 22 240 M M 10 1 29 230 16 71 48 60 4 5 0 0.35 0.0 0 14.6 25 290 M M 10 1 38 290 17 54 38 46 -10 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.2 21 10 M M 3 29 360 18 64 35 50 -5 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.4 12 160 M M 0 20 130 19 68 38 53 -2 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 1.4 8 170 M M 0 12 140 20 70 39 55 1 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.3 9 60 M M 1 11 60 21 69 39 54 0 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.8 14 360 M M 0 1 17 360 22 69 42 56 2 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.3 13 10 M M 0 16 30 23 68 42 55 2 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.3 12 80 M M 1 1 17 80 24 69 43 56 3 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.0 9 100 M M 2 18 12 130 25 69 43 56 4 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.3 9 160 M M 2 10 150 26 72 45 59 7 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.6 8 250 M M 5 11 280 27 71 46 59 7 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.5 9 150 M M 6 12 150 28 74 51 63 12 2 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.9 10 220 M M 3 17 230 29 76 52 64 13 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.2 22 250 M M 4 28 250 30 68 46 57 7 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.3 15 350 M M 4 19 350 31 63 48 56 6 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.6 16 100 M M 9 21 110 ================================================================================ SM 2216 1495 185 33 1.39 0.0 209.5 M 124 ================================================================================ AV 71.5 48.2 6.8 FASTST M M 4 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> 25 290 38 290 ================================================================================ NOTES: # LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H. PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2 STATION: DAYTON OH MONTH: OCTOBER YEAR: 2026 LATITUDE: 39 54 N LONGITUDE: 84 12 W [TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA] SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16 AVERAGE MONTHLY: 59.9 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 1.39 1 = FOG OR MIST DPTR FM NORMAL: 3.9 DPTR FM NORMAL: -1.56 2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY HIGHEST: 87 ON 13 GRTST 24HR 0.61 ON 2- 2 TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS LOWEST: 35 ON 18 3 = THUNDER SNOW, ICE PELLETS, HAIL 4 = ICE PELLETS TOTAL MONTH: 0.0 INCH 5 = HAIL GRTST 24HR 0.0 6 = FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE GRTST DEPTH: 0 7 = DUSTSTORM OR SANDSTORM: VSBY 1/2 MILE OR LESS 8 = SMOKE OR HAZE [NO. OF DAYS WITH] [WEATHER - DAYS WITH] 9 = BLOWING SNOW X = TORNADO MAX 32 OR BELOW: 0 0.01 INCH OR MORE: 6 MAX 90 OR ABOVE: 0 0.10 INCH OR MORE: 4 MIN 32 OR BELOW: 0 0.50 INCH OR MORE: 1 MIN 0 OR BELOW: 0 1.00 INCH OR MORE: 0 [HDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 185 CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 14 DPTR FM NORMAL -115 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 11 TOTAL FM JUL 1 229 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 6 DPTR FM NORMAL -132 [CDD (BASE 65) ] TOTAL THIS MO. 33 DPTR FM NORMAL 10 [PRESSURE DATA] TOTAL FM JAN 1 1165 HIGHEST SLP M ON M DPTR FM NORMAL 13 LOWEST SLP 29.31 ON 31 [REMARKS] #FINAL-10-26# 10th warmest October on record

72 here. Feels absolutely incredible after finishing up the first round of bone dry leaves. I even saw a couple rogue bees flying about the garden. Hopefully a sign of things to come this winter!

God I hope it'll come,