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Much more moisture available today, along with the warmer climate.

DP 74F is the real problem...

I've read a bit on that event. That was some serious stuff in terms of global impact, particularly to the fishing industry and ocean life.

12z mesos want to kill it

I will say that the 1877 event was pretty similar to this and that winter sucked.

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1052 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No wholesale changes to the forecast this morning. Monitoring convection upstream over Ohio (again) as that is on pace to affect the region with a damaging/severe wind threat later this afternoon into this evening.

Well said. And like Scott was saying, you do need to be careful with just applying linear logic of just taking previous strong EL Nino events and "energizing them". We very well may see a winter which does not match well at all with any of the previous stronger events. Reason for this is our database on those is so small and they're so infrequent that there are scenarios that just have not occurred. I mean look at what's happened to how our understanding of ENSO has changed even in the last 20 years and this is because as the datasets grow we introduce more possibilities and outcomes.

Consistent with OISST, the August relative ERSST anomaly for Nino 3.4 just came out and it also shows a rather mundane warming in August vs July compared to the near record breaking rapid warming of ~1C that several models had been showing. The Nino 3.4 anomaly warmed by only 0.34: 2026 6 1.07 2026 7 1.33 2026 8 1.67 It had been earlier progged to be >+2 for August. For example, check out this June 13-22 mean CFSv2 prog for August: +2.3, which was notably above what verified: How does August of ‘26 compare to other very warm Nino Augusts since 1950? It’s very warm but still wasn’t the warmest as 1997 was 0.18 warmer. Had it warmed to +2+ like had been progged, August would have easily been the warmest on record: 2026 +1.67 2015 +1.58 1997 +1.85 1987 +1.27 1982 +0.93 1972 +1.47 1965 +1.57 1957 +1.36 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt

Record number of tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings for PA this year. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=44&plot=bar&opt=state&station=DMX&state=PA&fema=7&limit=no&c=svrtor&phenomena=TO&significance=W&syear=1986&eyear=2026&s=jan1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

I don't see why it would be displaced southward...agree on northward.

Sorry for OT...honestly forgot which thread I was in.

Region 4 has kind of dried up for now, but I don't think that wil last.

Shit....I forgot I was in the Sept. thread...my bad. I early hunch on how the unprecedented magnitude of ENSO will factor in is one word...VOLATILITY. When you have those type of anomalies throughout the basin, it's going to introduce a myriad of different forcing schemes along with a very prominent and loaded STJ.....line it all up nicely, and the sky is the limit....but don't blink, or it will melt and you'll miss it.

It looks like someone smashed someones Lego’s?

The size of the +28C to +29C water temperatures within the Tropical Pacific is ridiculous. Even +20C off Mexico and into the Baja.

90 at 10AM

Adding on to my reply to Scott in your winter thread about the ridiculous graphic from the annoying guy and how some of the stuff he says doesn't seem to make sense. He is favoring increased winter threats in the deep South because the jet will be shifted south. I don't think that is totally true but I do know alot of generic stuff out there on EL Nino mentions this. I think there seems to be confusion out there on the different branches of the jet stream. The cooler/wetter patterns which plague the southern states during EL Nino I think is related a a stronger jet (which we all know) but its a stronger sub-tropical jet stream which can have the tendency to be displaced a bit further NORTH and its the cooler/more active track which plays a bigger role in the temperature anomalies. But its the stronger jet which is more critical versus the displacement. The polar jet also tends to be displaced further north, hence the lack of Arctic cold outbreaks penetrating south.

Those posts in the Sept thread probably should be on here lol.

It feels great outside to me. Nice breeze and since it is just 80, the dews don't feel bad at all. Looking forward to logging off work in an hour to enjoy the long weekend.

Maybe it is as simple as that, who knows. But it’s such a huge expanse of warm water. Just a little hesitant in applying that thinking.

I was thinking like some sort of tropical-thingy zipping NW. AKA October 2021.

Given the pace of the tropical season, there isn't much to catch up on. Three blogs, though the last two are very deep.

Agreed. The prospects for anything seem super slim...would need something to probably form along a stalled front...no waves are going to make it that far west, especially considering the shear should only continue strengthening through the MDR

My feeling is that more often than not, we are going to struggle with precip type, but the region still may very well score climo snowfall from the couple of events in which we do not have that issue.