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it's just one paper. A lot more research will be needed to strengthen understanding. The point is that one can't dismiss the idea that AI-generated headlines might be able to capture greater attention. That doesn't mean that the most skilled headline writers can't beat AI, at least for now. Moreover, as AI continues to improve, it will likely generate even more potent headlines, especially if it more effectively ties token prediction to psychological impact. In any case, we're very early in the AI age. A lot will change in coming years. At this time, I don't think the doom-and-gloom scenarios are the most likely outcome, though I expect that there will be dislocations in some industries and occupations. I also suspect that there will remain large latitude for human agency and human judgment will remain crucial for the foreseeable future.

Heavy rains and T&L. Most precip in months. I’ll take it

Much of this week will see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 60s. Additional showers are possible on Thursday as a warm front moves northward. It will turn noticeably warmer during the weekend. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 80° on Saturday and especially Sunday. The warmth will likely continue through the middle of next week. Temperatures could rise into the upper 80s to perhaps near 90° on Tuesday and Wednesday. It will turn much cooler after midweek. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around May 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C. El Niño conditions are rapidly developing and will likely be in place in the next few weeks. The SOI was -11.78 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.054 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.5° (0.3° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Man what a nice line of storms, with solid winds and plenty of L&T. Still some solid rain left to go here on the backend too. Came through right as I was putting the kids to bed, always fun seeing how they react to that ha.

A lot of T&L. Pouring rain.

0.47" in Western fringe of Ballenger Creek. Nice to over perform the model for once since I can't remember when.

Picked up .60”. What a nice event.

This is a good example of the polarimetric radar being important. If you look at the reflectivity over my house you’d think that it was pouring. The high differential reflectivity and low differential phase indicates that there are large, but relatively few big drops. So, despite a radar that looks like below, I’ve had 0.07” so far in this batch.

So here is a fun little project. It's CTP entire event database since 1996. Tried to normalize reports by population and homogenize costs to compare. You can do a neat little heatmap that shows preferred storm corridors to some extent. You definitely can't totally escape the rule that someone has to be there to make a storm report, but I did try to balance it out. I think there's almost 10,000 events. You can filter by all kinds of things. Enjoy!!! https://jns182wx.github.io/CTP_Storm_Catalog/ Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

.26" Better than nothing, but not by much.

Radar looked ominous over me just now but the winds did not hit me

Good thunderstorm we had here. Heavy rain some wind and pea size hail. Continuous thunder and lightning. And .87 rain.

Getting good boomer and rainer here right now...

Heaviest rain in awhile

Thank you.

High in Juneau is a glorious 47!

Going from a high of 57 to 93 in the next 5 days lol

the storm fell apart as it got here but at least it rained and left us with this:

You got My area circled.

Had a warned storm roll through about an hour ago, mehish, only about .20" and a 31 mph gust.

My point is when you have various people from various parts of the industry, as well as what I have been noticing too… It tells you that something isn’t ready for primetime. They got three months to figure this out.

Yes, I had never actually seen the full video until I looked it up earlier today! I thought that looked like Clapton! But the video starts w/ a mini movie, and the song does not begin until 2:25, so I opted out of posting that!

Tuesday looks like a scorcher

Again, I would caution, just b/c a lot of ppl say one thing is true or similar, does not necessarily mean it is correct or close to reality. The bandwagon fallacy is most common in society. And w/ social media today, one person says something and it spreads like it is gospel. Groupthink is rife. So be careful. When the ETA came out (precursor to the NAM) in 1993, it had all sorts of problems. I recall them vividly, but they were fixed in time. So how it is any different here? Actually, it is different, but in a better sense than 33 years ago. We have *far* more models out there now to assist us and compare against any new model as to its shortcomings. So CoastalWx fear of his beloved S+ event forecasts are in good hands overall! Geez, you think we world was going to end b/c the RRFS is going live looking at social media in last 24 hr. Can we cut out the drama please? Also, the RRFS we have been seeing so far is in test and evaluation mode. What we are seeing is not the final operational version most likely. What goes live on 8/31 may be not the version we have seen up to this point. On PivotalWx, we see the RRFS-A, so that implies there is RRFS-B. What about that? So before flying off the handle, one needs to take a step back and account for "you don't know what you don't know" and consder asking "is it really that much of an issue in the big pix? And I ask again, would ppl rather just stay w/ the NAM? How many negative memes has this model been the subject or over the years? So please keep things in proper perspective.