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please stunt on us

The 06z RRFS run, oh my.

3k gets the sleet line up to southern MA but big dump before that

6z NAM Total qpf

thats how you get two feet in some areas

damn I wish I could lock this run in

Not sure what is and isn't virga on the radar, but Memphis webcams show a snow covered interstate. Jackson cams are inconclusive.

hr 60 still snowing should of waited for total qpf but will probably end up close

Very light but happy to see that the drizzle type activity here tonight is in the form of sleet. Hopefully that is the case in the morning.

NAM increasing qpf again

They have the DGZ too warm for a lot of that

Absolutely great to see this Euro run.

6z NAM a tad bit colder for those directly on the edge. Noise at this point.

Pressure map sane time frame comparing WB 3K NAM to HRRR; not much difference.

6z Nam looks a lot better than 0z...much more in line with other models

WB 3K NAM is warmer aloft than 6Z HRRR. For example, 11 am Sunday. We will see which model is wrong.

Yes, because it was the ONE YEAR I was home during this period of NAMM and the Grammys since they were cancelled for Covid. And WOULDN’T YOU KNOW IT…. A FAILED Disaster Storm happened. Of Course. FML.

Not buying it

WB 3K NAM does not have the thump like HRRR. I think that is part of its problem or the reason it transitions to sleet faster

Yes

GRR is sitting at -16. Daily record is -20. All time is -24. There’s some -20s showing up in more rural areas nearby though. It seems like higher dewpoints are holding temperatures higher some places. It’s hard to get extreme lows here in West Michigan as normally westerly flow off the lake doesn’t diminish until the coldest core of 850 temps has passed. This is kind of a rare setup where the 850 cold pool is stalling directly overhead with light winds.

8.6/-6.6

A slight improvement, perhaps?