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@Spartmanentetaining read today for sure. After a long stretch of boring weather it’s nice to have an active forecast discussion. Joe Strus wrote the afternoon discussion, he seems to be winter weenie.

CANSIPS has the El Nino much further west than it's developing.

WPC has lowest rainfall totals where the Euro has the highest.

I'm in the same boat as you, wooded forest surrounding the house creating shade. The Flood brands DO just as good a job as the expensive stuff, IMO. I've used them for years, and about every third year I'm redoing the process, just at a cheaper price point.

Wow - likely wont happen at least here if its convective in nature - but that 1.96 would be more than the past 6 weeks combined.....

I prefer back loaded winters because it means less time til the next cold season. Long as snow is on the ground for Christmas and New Years Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

And now for the cherry on the top... someone hit a skunk or scared it.... air is dead still....just closed all the windows. Dank and stinky comes to mind.

Perfect day tomorrow.

^having the Canadian ridging extending all the way to the west coast is a subtle difference but a key one. If the Aleutian low goes giga (which is what I’d lean toward), that’ll push the ridge inland and just flood Canada with pac puke

DCA: -0.3 NYC: -0.7 BOS: -0.7 ORD: -0.5 ATL: +0.2 IAH: +1.1 DEN: +1.3 PHX: +1.3 SEA: +0.3

Stopping by to deliver the new August CanSIPS (ok time to go back into hiding now, see y'all in December I guess)

Checks out based on Frederick's luck lately

Onto Ughust

Last month of meteorological summer! Home stretch!

Tuesday, August 4, 2026 11:38AM EDT Skies continue to clear from west to east following this morning’s rain and storms. Much of the region generally picked up between half an inch and an inch of rain. As we go through the afternoon temps will rise into the lower 90s w/ dewpoints getting into the mid/upper 70s leading to 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE beneath the 6.5-7 C/km MLLRs. As the unseasonably strong shortwave approaches from the west it will most likely bring with it a complex of thunderstorms congealing into a severe MCS. At the same time, a couple of supercells may develop over the region ahead of the main cluster and with near 60kts of EDWD and effective SRH in excess of 250m2/s2 these have the potential of producing strong to intense tornadoes. SPC has us under a 10% CIG1 tornado risk to account for this. We are also under a 60% CIG1 wind risk resulting in a level 4 out of 5 Moderate risk of severe weather. With the high CAPE, decent DCAPE (1000+ J/kg) and high Pwats around 2 inches, the MCS could bring widespread 65 to 80+ mph wind gusts across the region with even higher gusts in any embedded microbursts resulting in widespread and potentially long-lasting power outages along with major tree damage and some structural damage to boot. Stay tuned to the evolving weather situation and take all the necessary precautions.

What in the sam hell is going on

August 2026 DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.7 -1.1 -0.1 -1.4 -1.2 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.6

I'll sell the 6 days of 90+ that the 18z GFS shows for 8/6-8/11. It won't be the first time this summer that the warmista model was wrong.

We’re onto summer around here, and I’ve now had a chance to assemble our site’s snow data for the past winter. It was a decent season, with 184.1” of total snow accumulation, and all eight snowfall months of October through May were either above or near their average snowfall numbers. That means that none of the months were notably poor performers in the snowfall department, which is a testament to the high level of winter consistency we had throughout the season. In that same vein, none of the months were absolute blockbusters either. A wintry November got the snowfall season off to a strong start with plenty of cold and snow, and that early snowpack helped to set up a great ski season. Although it was a solidly snowy November, it didn’t set a lot of records. The winter snowpack started on November 11th , and the month had 23 days with snow on the ground. There were 11 snowstorms, 23.5” of total snow, and 20 days with snowfall. The 20 days of snowfall for the month was actually a record, besting November 2023 by 1 day. Another record acquired during the month was the earliest double digit snowstorm I’ve recorded here, which was attributed to the November 15th storm. That’s not a record specific to November, but it certainly helped reinforce the wintry tenor of the month. Overall, it was a great month to lock in the wintry vibe for the holiday season and indeed the rest of the winter here in the mountains. For a while it looked like things were setting up for back-to-back 200”+ snowfall seasons here in the valley, but there was no big final snowfall push in March and April; they were just decently average snowfall months, and the season didn’t quite get to that 200” mark. In the end, 2025-2026 wound up in 6th place for total season snowfall in the site records. Although total snowfall wasn’t near a record, there were a lot of days with snow, so the season can certainly be highlighted for its consistent snowfall. Along with November, December, January, and March all tied or broke records for their number of days with snowfall, so it’s not surprising that the overall season broke the record as well by having 123 days in which new snow was recorded. That number meant that this past season beat out the previous record holder, 2020-2021, by 6 days. If this past season’s snowfall days were stacked together, that would be over four months in which it snowed, every day. It speaks to the emphasis on putting your vehicles in a garage or getting them under some other sort of cover if you don’t want to constantly be cleaning the snow off them. In line with the snowy theme for the season, we also had a ton of snowstorms – a record number of them in fact. This season tied the record for the number of December snowstorms with 16, broke the record for the most March snowstorms with 13, and set the record for the greatest number of accumulating storms of any season at 66. This season beat out the previous record of 64 storms held by the 2018-2019 season, and this season’s detailed winter storm list to date is posted after rest of the data. The season’s snow data are listed below, with parameters that set or tied records highlighted in green. Total Snowfall: 184.1” October Snowfall: 0.0” November Snowfall: 23.5” December Snowfall: 49.8” January Snowfall: 46.6” February Snowfall: 36.0” March Snowfall: 21.6” April Snowfall: 6.6” May Snowfall: 0.0” Total Days with Snowfall: 123 October Days with Snowfall: 0 November Days with Snowfall: 20 December Days with Snowfall: 27 January Days with Snowfall: 29 February Days with Snowfall: 22 March Days with Snowfall: 19 April Days with Snowfall: 6 May Days with Snowfall: 0 Snowstorms: 66 October Storms: 0 November Storms: 11 December Storms: 16 January Storms: 14 February Storms: 8 March Storms: 13 April Storms: 4 May Storms: 0 Average Snowfall per Storm: 2.8” Largest Storm: 20.6” 2nd Largest Storm: 14.6” 3rd Largest Storm: 10.4” 4th Largest Storm: 10.4” 5th Largest Storm: 9.5” Sum of 5 Largest Storms: 65.5” Storms ≥10": 4 Date of Largest Storm: 1/25/26 Earliest Frozen Precipitation: 11/4/25 Earliest Accumulating Snowfall: 11/4/25 Earliest 1" Storm: 11/10/25 Earliest 2" Storm: 11/11/25 Earliest 3" Storm: 11/11/25 Earliest 4" Storm: 11/11/25 Earliest 6" Storm: 11/11/25 Earliest 8" Storm: 11/17/25 Earliest 10" Storm: 11/18/25 Earliest 12" Storm: 1/26/26 Latest Accumulating Snowfall: 4/20/26 Latest Frozen Precipitation: 4/20/26 Length of Snowfall Season: 168 days Start of Season Snowpack: 11/11/25 October days with Snowpack: 0 November days with Snowpack: 21 December days with Snowpack: 31 January days with Snowpack: 31 February days with Snowpack: 28 March days with Snowpack: 31 April days with Snowpack: 12 May days with Snowpack: 0 Days with >0" Snowpack: 154 Days with >0.5" Snowpack: 137 Days with ≥1" Snowpack: 132 Days with ≥2" Snowpack: 127 Days with ≥3" Snowpack: 118 Days with ≥4" Snowpack: 114 Days with ≥6" Snowpack: 100 Days with ≥8" Snowpack: 87 Days with ≥10" Snowpack: 62 Days with ≥12" Snowpack: 47 Days with ≥15" Snowpack: 42 Days with ≥18" Snowpack: 34 Days with ≥20" Snowpack: 29 Days with ≥24" Snowpack: 13 Days with ≥30" Snowpack: 0 Days with ≥36" Snowpack: 0 Max Snow Depth: 29.0” Date of Max Snow Depth: 2/21/26 End of Season Snowpack: 4/10/26 Continuous Snowpack Season: 151 days Snow-Depth Days: 1528.0 inch-days SDD/Snowfall Ratio: 8.30 Total liquid equivalent: 21.79” Frozen liquid equivalent: 10.86” % Frozen L.E.: 49.8% Total Snow/Total Liquid Ratio: 8.45 Total Water Content: 11.8% Total Snow/Frozen Liquid Ratio: 16.95 Frozen Water Content: 5.9%

I think these changes are entirely immaterial with the degree of warmth throughout ENSO.