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Sometimes there are surprises and models are trying to play catchup and never get it right especially in the beginning of a complex pattern change - it has happened before....

Snow storm is when Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are issued and they verify - no one said this is going to be a "snowstorm" as of now - don't need phasing to create a moderate advisory type snowfall or even a moderate snowstorm.

There was 14.5 inches here on March 2nd, 1942. We ended up with almost 80 inches here in the winter of 1959-60. 3 inches in December after a very warm month with the snow falling Dec 30th and 31st, 10 inches in January, 25 in February and 39 in March.

1500 slopeside. Convective city tsnow for an hour animated.mov

You missed the point Dexter.

Its very close to a bigger solution with a cleaner phase.

It depends on what you decide a "snowstorm" is. Will it be the early 2000s storms? No, but it could very well be better than 95% of what we've gotten the past several years

50s is normal in March. That won’t be a cold pattern but there is enough decent in other areas we could get a wave to track under us if it times up with a transient 50/50 feature. You only seem to pay attention to the pacific and ignore other factors. But we’re getting that this weekend and its rain so maybe we can’t snow anymore in hostile pac regimes and the last 10 years is just what is normal now.

Our most recent system was one of those classic setups when an Alberta Clipper interacts with the Northern Greens and turns into a 12”+ event. I didn’t have time to get out for turns yesterday, so I headed up to the mountain this morning for a ski session. The Wilderness Lift has been closed for the past couple of days per its usual weekly schedule, so I toured via the Wilderness Uphill Route this morning ahead of its Friday opening. As I mentioned in my Wednesday report, the first half foot of snow from this system came in fairly dense, with snow in the 9-10% H2O range, but the next half foot or so was in the 4-6% H2O range, and then then the final rounds of snow that came through yesterday finished off in the 2-3% H2O range. So all told, the storm cycle played out beautifully by delivering an excellent gradient of right-side-up powder. And indeed the powder skiing today was as one might expect with those numbers – fantastic and bottomless unless you were on terrain that had been groomed during the storm. And even then, you were touching a subsurface that is of very high quality due to the rounds and rounds of snow we’ve received in the past few weeks. I last did powder depth checks during my Saturday outing on the Bolton Valley Nordic & Backcountry Network and was typically finding powder in the 20 to 30-inch range above the subsurface. We’re getting to the point now that it’s getting hard to put numbers to it – the overall powder stack is getting deep enough that it’s crushing and settling the lower levels of powder into denser snow beneath it, and it’s getting hard to assess where the actual subsurface sits. Oh well, that’s a great place to be in midwinter, so let’s just say that the powder out there in off piste areas that haven’t been touched is 20-30”+, and it’s got a beautiful density gradient in it that has set up naturally over time. On a related note, I see that the snowpack depth has now jumped back up above 80” according to the Mansfield Stake. So right now in the Northern Greens, the powder is deep, the overall snowpack is deep, the forecast calls for seasonable temperatures, and the modeling has 2 to 3 smaller systems with snow over the next few days. My recommendation is to get out there and enjoy it.

The good news, is that it snows outside of the rectangles. It's not gonna happen anyway because this thread was unlocked.

yup that’s a rainstorm on Feb 15th!

No one cares, point was it wouldn't hit us...and it won't.

if only I could get that 5 x 10 mile snow rectangle on LI to shift 3 miles south I'm in business.

Guidance is converging on a perfect track rainstorm on pd weekend lol. perhaps another chapter in my book.

This is 24 hrs kids. Don't ever tell anyone models can't move hundreds of miles overnight

This isn’t going to trend into a snowstorm. Look at how positively tilted the trough is. There is no phasing until it’s well off shore, the phasing would have to occur over land not over the open Atlantic to get anything substantial and the positive tilt trough isn’t going to allow it. And to top it off, it’s flying. And there isn’t “plenty of time”. People are chasing ghosts.

I love that it's always the happy hour GFS runs that somehow always dole out the most hope... I swear some government programmer put an Easter egg in the code to tweak the 18z GFS solutions towards colder/snowier just for us snow weenies lol

Everybody is an expert until they aren't. Dendy won't see grass until April if not mid April but charts make him laugh. Hopefully not warm too quick as his basement makes him sick. Beware the dry slut

00z GFS is a nice hit

Nice improvement in the Euro - if I had to guess, this might be where we end up and I'd be happy with this...

If you go back 5 days out til now the Euro AI consistency is excellent. However the ceiling is probably a low end warning or high end advisory event unless it trends stronger with the phasing (less likely given how close we are to event).

.77 woof?

trend is our friend still plenty of time - we have seen this happen before

Lmao

Tony's snow map