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6z AI close to 00z.

Could be looking at a nice 2-4in for many here in the mid Lehigh Valley area and a lovely excuse to work from home on Tuesday

Those maps are ridiculous.

6z euro still fighting the dual low but very similar to 00z. Getting stability there.

So we are looking at a potential true Miller A type of storm for Tuesday with the L coming out of the gulf states and a cold air source to the North. When was the last time we saw type of setup? It’s been a while.

Car topper with sleet currently falling

Hope everyone is right. Getting my blower out and fueled up today. Hope it not a jinx…but need to make sure it’s running. Mag nice write up! Blizz Thanks!

Obviously GYX was aggressive for a reason. I wasn’t paying close enough attention. Looks like we have a decent 1st storm with cold to keep it and squalls in Thursday to freshen it and then more at the weekend.

0.5”-10” for IZG lol

And you’re welcome everyone. Juju.

It’s a confidence level they have this far out.

It’s really coming down to intensity and how mid-levels act. Euro is just a bit more organized, mitigating any warm air intrusion beyond the south coast, while the GFS brings that further inland about 30 miles.

Snow/sleet in Potomac

This is how much the euro AI changed in 36hrs to the current 6z run

8.5" final here. If we didn't have an afternoon lull, dd's might have been in play. Regardless, 13.9" of snow in November IMBY. Pretty remarkable. And looks like a nice little refresher coming tomorrow afternoon/evening. What a start to the season.

WB 6Z EURO

Snow in Columbia!!!

I truly wouldn't put much stock into their forecast. It's going to change.

Anecdotally my phone forecast went from 1-3” with .5 rain before I went to bed back up to 7-9” this morning. Doesn’t mean much, but happy it didn’t go the other way for what it’s worth

GYX is aggressive here with 5-9 in zones plus more in the early evening. Going with blend on qpf of .7-1.0

Looks like a very bad forecast

Looks like a GFS/NAM leaning forecast

Still snowing and winds have increased significantly. Saw two accidents happen yesterday, typical snow fender bender and another in the ditch. Widespread win for this board, the Monday system looks more likely to over achieve than under, liking the trends on the latest cycle.

Aren't they always the most cautious. They are the same with their temp outlooks too.

Sounds like watches may be hoisted for some later on this afternoon. The latest WPC probabilities of 0.25" or greater liquid equivalent snow/sleet paint medium probabilities (40-70%) across most of the region, with slightly lower amounts expected in northwest PA. The latest Winter Storm Outlook highlights a 30-50% chance of Warning criteria snowfall (5"+) in northeast PA, primarily east of US-15. GEFS and ECENS probabilities of 6"+ have trended up a bit also supporting the 30-50% probability in the Poconos, with an even higher likelihood up through coastal New England. If the current track/timing holds, watches may be needed in the next forecast cycle. At this time, though, a plowable snowfall seems like a reasonable bet for most of the region. Guidance has remained consistent overall for snowfall amounts with the last two runs, however some uncertainty remains whether or not warm nosing above the surface could limit snow across the PA/MD border. If mixing is a problem for anywhere in Central PA, it would be for locations southeast of US-30 in York and Lancaster County. Continue to monitor the forecast in the days ahead, especially if you have plans to travel.