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May very well get there, but we are talking about NOW...the fact is that El Nino is not very well coupled with the mid latitudes of the N HEM at this time.

September 21 2005: An unusually intense late season severe weather event affects parts of central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin during the late afternoon and evening hours. Baseball-sized hail, damaging thunderstorm winds, and tornadoes result from several supercell thunderstorms. The most widespread damage occurs across the northern and eastern portions of the Twin Cities. Three tornadoes rake across parts of Anoka and northern Hennepin counties, including an F2, but the tornado damage is overshadowed by the widespread extreme wind damage associated with the rear flank downdraft of the supercell. In addition to the severe weather, many locations received substantial amounts of rain. Many streets and underpasses in the northern Twin Cities metro area were flooded Wednesday night, where radar precipitation estimates were in excess of 3 inches. 1994: 1/2 inch hail in Blue Earth County results in $6 million in crop damages. 1924: Very strong winds occur in Duluth, with a peak gust of 64 mph. For Monday, September 21, 2026 1894 - A heavy chicken house, sixteen by sixteen feet in area, was picked up by a tornado and wedged between two trees. The hens were found the next day sitting on their eggs in the chicken house, with no windows broken, as though nothing had happened. (The Weather Channel) 1924 - A couple of tornadoes, one rated F4 and the other F5, tore paths of devastation through Eau Claire, Clark, and Taylor Counties in Wisconsin. The death toll was 18 and 50 people were injured. 1938 - A great hurricane smashed into Long Island and bisected New England causing a massive forest blowdown and widespread flooding. Winds gusted to 186 mph at Blue Hill MA, and a storm surge of nearly thirty feet caused extensive flooding along the coast of Rhode Island. The hurricane killed 600 persons and caused 500 million dollars damage. The hurricane, which lasted twelve days, destroyed 275 million trees. Hardest hit were Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Long Island NY. The ""Long Island Express"" produced gargantuan waves with its 150 mph winds, waves which smashed against the New England shore with such force that earthquake-recording machines on the Pacific coast clearly showed the shock of each wave. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1954 - The temperature at Deeth, NV, soared from a morning low of 12 degrees to a high of 87 degrees, a record daily warm-up for the state. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Tropical Storm Emily, which formed in the Carribean the previous afternoon, caused considerable damage to the banana industry of Saint Vincent in the Windward Islands. Unseasonably hot weather continued in Florida and the western U.S. Redding CA and Red Bluff CA, with record highs of 108 degrees, tied for honors as the hot spot in the nation. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced high winds and locally heavy rain in the southwestern U.S. One thunderstorm in west Texas produced wind gusts to 86 mph at Dell City completely destroying an airport hangar. A Cessna 150 aircraft housed within the hangar was flipped over and snapped in two. Thunderstorms produced large hail in east central Utah, while snow blanketed some of the higher elevations of the state. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Hurricane Hugo slammed into the South Carolina coast about 11 PM, making landfall near Sullivans Island. Hurricane Hugo was directly responsible for thirteen deaths, and indirectly responsible for twenty-two others. A total of 420 persons were injured in the hurricane, and damage was estimated at eight billion dollars, including two billion dollars damage to crops. Sustained winds reached 85 mph at Folly Beach SC, with wind gusts as high as 138 mph. Wind gusts reached 98 mph at Charleston, and 109 mph at Shaw AFB. The biggest storm surge occurred in the McClellanville and Bulls Bay area of Charleston County, with a storm surge of 20.2 feet reported at Seewee Bay. Shrimp boats were found one half mile inland at McClellanville. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 21 Mon World Gratitude Day 21 Mon National Chai Day 21 Mon International Day of Peace 21 Mon World Alzheimer’s Day 21 Mon Escapology Day 21 Mon Mabon 21 Mon Miniature Golf Day 21 Mon National Cat & Dog Gut Health Awareness Day 21 Mon National Garage Condo Day 21 Mon National Opioid Awareness Day 21 Mon National Pecan Cookie Day 21 Mon Telegraph Pole Appreciation Day 21 Mon World Mini Golf Day

Capital Weather Gang says otherwise.

@LakePaste25Perhaps this image can help to reduce your confusion and add some clarity....this point is also illustrated by the struggle to develop an Aleutian low to this point.

some EPS and GEFS members have been hinting at it on and off for next week but its a long shot

I'm glad it's not the following weekend. I'll be at an outdoor event in New York (though lodging is indoors) but that would totally suck.

It sucks and it blows. That aside, at least it's interesting weather for once

Low of 60 with .8" of weekend rainfall.

Upper 20's - 30's well inland with 40's nearer the Lake. Frost adv this morning up N. 60's/40's continue on an E wind off the Lake here in town.

it's certainly going to be blowing

BOM updated with a +3.8C RONI. Might be too high, but it will easily get above +3C on the monthly mean.

Has to be over the weekend though, blows

0z ICON last night looked really good lets get that solution again

hoping for some big runs at 12z

1982-83 was a record breaking east based el nino that had a great back half of winter (February blizzard and mid-April snow/freeze event).

FWIW both euro and euro ai ensembles came NW.

AAHHH finally...From GSP AFD this morning and for your reading pleasure At the same time, very broad sfc high pressure will park itself to our north over Ontario and Quebec helping to establish a cold-air damming wedge on Wednesday that will likely persist thru the end of the week. The resulting cool NELY flow and shower potential will help keep tempera- tures about 8 to 12 degrees below normal thru Friday. The wedge will likely weaken on Friday as the sfc low lifts further NE and drier air works its way into our area from the west. Nonetheless, temperatures are expected to remain below normal thru the weekend with shower chances diminishing each day from Thursday onward and increasing sunshine.

Right... I mean I just mentioned to wise-ass ( lol ) that it's not physically impossible.. I just wasn't going to get into a whole UVM 'stokes discussion about why latent heat release lowers heights ... Question is, how much and does it really drill down an anchor a surface low that the Euro's near bombogen rates needs to be 72 hours out for my taste. We'll see The other thing ... something happened about 10 or 15 years ago with modeling, et al. The general technological behavior seemed to unilaterally reverse. What used to be missed in the late mid range, suddenly became over amplified in general ongoing dependable practice. We colloquially refer to this as 'model magnification' but it's not like that's not doing that anymore. It's still a real tendency/hasn't gone away. Not having substantive S/W input into the arena, then ending up with multiple contours ... mmm sort smacks as a candidate for that oversell routine.

Still looks much more seasonable for us, than what we've been dealing with. I can't say the say the same for the central Ohio Valley.

Yep ended up with 1.32 here

Im walking in the Tunnels2Towers event on Sunday. As much as I want this storm to hit , I hope its a dry day.

I noticed that too, it’s a subtle shortwave then all the sudden it deepens with multiple contours at H5. But I think that’s also in response to cyclogenesis too. We see that in winter a lot, only strong s/w and more closed contours at H5. I don’t necessarily have an issue how it’s modeled, it’s more the track and how each vort lobe location dictates where the low migrates to.

I know, but I think I'd eventually have issues with it backing into Ginxy's dog kennel like that.