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Thanks, Ray. Indeed, that graph has the only significant pocket of -AAM centered at our latitudes as you noted. However, I assume you realize that these lat. based graphs are quite fluid, and thus it could look quite different at our latitudes within just a few days for all anyone knows. Also, the extremely + tropical latitudes have little choice but to drop back at least some. I’ll try to follow these daily from this point on. Here’s the brand new update for 0Z on 9/22/26: note that the -AAM pocket at our latitudes is still there but is not as negative and 63N to 90N is significantly more positive vs yesterday: Compare to yesterday’s: The corresponding global for 9/22/26 is as expected on its last legs of the extreme level of +4+:

You're in a good spot again today don't blow it

I posted this one another forum. @CoastalWx in awe of the meteorological and social science analyses? ---------- For several days now, the global models have been indicating an atypically strong non-tropical low for September developing off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic/New England coasts by this weekend. High winds, coastal flooding, and excessive rains are becoming more likely, especially in southern New England. Some models, such as the ECMWF and UKMET, are showing a strong warm seclusion evolving when the low slows down and stalls for a time not far S of New England. I attached the 850, 700, and 500 heights/temp valid 09z September 27 from the 22/00z ECMWF that clearly shows the warm seclusion. SSTs S of New England are running anywhere between 2-4 C above average and are 22-25 C in the region where the low is forecast to slow/stall, more than enough for subtropical development, and with such SSTs we have seen full tropical transition before. Now I know this sounds like I am getting ahead of myself here, but one has to proactively think in the abstract and outside the box here, especially when it comes to atypical/outlier events forecast and their impacts. I know of no case where a strong non-tropical low transitioned to subtropical or tropical in this area of the Atlantic so close to the Mid-Atlantic or New England coasts. There was an intense non-tropical low that impacted this region in October 2021 that eventually became TS Wanda, but not until far out of sea in the central Atlantic. The conundrum I see is that if such a transition occurs, it may be while significant non-tropical land impacts from wind/rain/coastal flooding are ongoing. So that implies non-tropical wind warnings would have to be switched to tropical wind warnings. This presents a problem in messaging, among other things. We have policy/procedures in place when a tropical system transitions to PT/ET -- the capability to continue pre-existing tropical wind warnings, but what about when you have an ET low going to subtropical/tropical? There is no sensible weather difference between gale/storm warnings and tropical storm warnings, but a significant amount of the public does not realize or understand that. Going from an unnamed system to a named system? Well, I don't have to say how the media (social and otherwise) reacts when a subtropical/tropical system is named. But the meteorology operationally just can't be ignored either. A system is what it is. This is further complicated by the fact that days before non-tropical low develops, a strong pressure gradient from high pressure over southeastern Canada will result in gale force E and NE winds as early as late today over the marine zone waters off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast. In my opinion, the above is a non-trivial from a logistical and social point-of-view if such a non-tropical to ST/T transition occur in said region. A similar modern day event that did not fit or work within any current policies/produces at the time occurred with Hurricane Sandy in October 2012, which was also this very same region. The ante this time is not forecast to be on the level of Sandy, but nevertheless is significant.

Can I selfishly root for this even though I'd usually love to see the Euro and AI's win? Daughter has her first out of state softball tournament in Connecticut this weekend.

Seems like 45-60 mph gusts inland and 50-70 mph coasts right ?

Doesn’t this distinction between tropical and non tropical damage become an insurance deductible issue for coastal homeowners? I remember that there were some people who thought that the so called transition from tropical to non tropical by Sandy just prior to landfall in Brigantine NJ was more insurance/ politics related than science related. .

But that’s a pretty low bar…no?

You forget how we are at peak SSTs for the season, and they are running 2-4 C above avg S not that far S of the region, so better mixing down of 925 winds likely.

0.9 so far and spread out over hours. This was needed! It's been so dry here that dust kicked up just from walking on the yard.

Yes, but Winds will most likely disappoint inland as usual…except of course along the immediate coast. But At least we have something to track.

One thing to keep in mind with this potential system too is it being warm core and how long it maintains its warm core

The most epic of epic of all Sep nor'easters! Weenies rejoice!

1.42" yesterday and .72" since midnight. Just what the doctor ordered.

yeah definitely interested to see what recon finds with this

Well, you already had ACWATT. So why not?

Rain shield seems displaced north of Cvill. Sorta sucks for me but happy for the nova crew

Recon may get there when it peaks, which will be KEWL! Odds are good that it will be stronger than Dvorak says, which is very common for intense TCs. Dvorak works best for TCs between 60 and 105 kt.

Let's do this.

You read my mind. See post coming shortly on this thread.

It’s the strong HP to the north . Pressure gradient winds. Bigtime

I think you missed his posts from this past Sunday....

Did we not work out something with Mexico with regard to potential threats? Granted, Polo likely avoids landfall, but it will pass close enough to cause problems (i.e. flooding).

Qg-smegma says no, it’s all wrong.

nessun problema