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There was quite blue skies this morning, but it's gotten progressively worse as the day goes on. Smoke and haze.

First, none of the seasonal models have had much skill for any of the winters over the last decade in terms of temperatures or 500 mb patterns. We are talking about the strongest El Niño on record so broad ENSO correlations which include weak and moderate El Niños will be outside climo for such strong events This was the case with both the 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 events when the seasonal models defaulted to correlations that were much too cold for what transpired. Both those winters verified significantly warmer than the seasonal forecasts. With La Ninas the seasonal models haven’t been any better. We had two of the weakest La Ninas events last few winters following a super El Niño. So the general La Niña correlations the models used as forecasts didn’t work out very well. The models were too cold with their 2025-2026 CONUS forecast since the magnitude of the Western warmth was significantly greater than the cold in the East. Just by looking at any of the seasonal models would not have given any indication of the 2nd warmest winter on record for the CONUS. But I was happy to be in my area which had the first cold and snowy winter since 2014-2015. 2024-2025 was such a weak La Niña that the Nino 1+2 warming in late November which triggered a more Nino-like December was the 2nd warmest across the CONUS. January 2025 was the coldest of 2020s so far in a sea of warm which the seasonal models didn’t forecast. The models also missed the deep trough in the West for 2022-2023 winter since they went with a general La Niña composite which was too cool for the very warm winter in the East. During the 2021 -2022 winter the models missed the record +13 December in DFW. They also missed the colder and snowier January pattern. Much of this has to do with the seasonal models inability for forecast the MJO which has been getting stuck in the warmer phases due to the expanding Indio-Pacific warm pool with enhanced MC forcing. 19-20 was a big miss of how strong the SPV became leading to another warmer winter. So it just may be that since record warmth is running so far ahead of any record cold, there are just more opportunities for the models underestimate the warmth and run too cold. Pointing out these obvious model errors is more a function of me trying to arrive at a better overall understanding of what to expect in our new climate. It’s in no way an endorsement of how rapidly our winters and other seasons have warmed. I grew up in the 1970s so I can remember what really cold winters were like. My preferences are for any pattern which produces great snowstorms. I don’t mind if they occur in a milder winter. Since I am more about snowstorm quality than how long it says on the ground following the storm. Just cold enough to snow with a benchmark KU storm track is all I need to have an enjoyable winter.

Was thinking about getting a Tempest. .

Preliminarily, I think this event lands between +3.2 to +3.7 on the RONI. I will adjust accordingly as we get closer to October.

Hopefully more heat and smoke soon

12Z UKMET: 6th run in row with TS but dissipates off TX TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.1N 85.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.07.2026 0 27.1N 85.2W 1012 22 0000UTC 20.07.2026 12 27.9N 84.9W 1009 22 1200UTC 20.07.2026 24 27.6N 85.5W 1008 27 0000UTC 21.07.2026 36 28.2N 85.5W 1005 30 1200UTC 21.07.2026 48 28.8N 85.7W 1004 35 0000UTC 22.07.2026 60 29.3N 86.0W 1003 35 1200UTC 22.07.2026 72 29.4N 87.1W 1004 46 0000UTC 23.07.2026 84 29.2N 88.2W 1004 40 1200UTC 23.07.2026 96 28.0N 90.7W 1002 48 0000UTC 24.07.2026 108 28.1N 93.9W 1005 33 1200UTC 24.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

Look at how much everyone hates this weather in summer . Thankfully it’s fleeting

Not to mention, -PDO usually works against cold and snow. Funny that it’s magically now something that we want lmao.

More bulk shear and more low level curvature. 10-15 kt southeaserlies at the surface with 20 kt southerlies at 850 would have done the trick for tornadoes. Mid-Level dry air pocket for more widespread winds.

Yeah, not what we want for mid July. I don't live in Labrador.

Temps and snowfall aside for a second, my beef is this utter delusional weenie crap that a -PDO and “other factors” are going to somehow magically overwhelm a historic ++ENSO is by far and away the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard in my entire life, hands down. Pure stupidity, fantasy and Land of Make Believe garbage. It completely defies the laws of physics and reality

Still have some smoke smell and haze

Driving home from Presque Isle and the wind on 95 has been nasty.

That's over where my parents live... my mom said the traffic light was out at Lake Waterford Park. Yeah, most of the damage was north / east of MD100 / MD10.

True, I just don’t like Fenway in HHH. You are sitting very tight with a bunch of equally sweaty fans ha. But it’s also nostalgic to be there when it’s hot. Childhood memories of humid evenings. Wrong weather for summer and the beach, but the ballpark is nice with a hoodie.

The atmosphere is primed. Just need more shear. There is enough for organization northeast of the Triangle:

Any other personal weather stations nearby to you that you can check their rainfall total compared to yours? I use Weather Underground’s: https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=39.998000000000786&lon=-76.73099999999852&zoom=13&tl.play=0&tl.spd=2&groupSevere=1&groupHurricane=1&groupFire=1&groupCamsPhotos=1&groupRealEstate=1&eyedropper=0&extremes=0&fault=0&favs=0&femaflood=0&fire=0&firewfas=0&fissures=0&fronts=0&hurrevac=0&hur=0&labels=0&lightning=0&livesurge=0&mm=0&ndfd=0&rad=1&rad.num=1&rad.spd=25&rad.opa=81&rad.type=00Q&rad.type2=&rad.smo=1&rad.noc=1&rad.stm=0&dir=1&dir.mode=driving&sst=0&sat=0&seismicrisk=0&svr=0&ski=0&snowfall=0&stateLines=0&stormreports=0&tor=0&tfk=0&tsunami=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&cams=0&pix=0 and Tempist’s: https://tempestwx.com/map/39.9853/-76.6956/11 My tempest weather station is reporting .25 yesterday and stations around it are ranging from .18-.23, so I’d say that’s pretty darn close.

First hundo of the year looks likely by tomorrow.

She’s between Ritchie, 100, and Magothy Bridge RD. I think worst was north of her on the other side of 100

Tell it to the new Jamstec winter forecast. I'm just the messenger. Maps stink, but that's all they seem to offer.

it's very windy tbh, at least locally. nasty out.

It’s the strongest East based El Niño on record, this winter will be a blow torch of PAC air

I got 0.10" more between 11 and 12 last night to take my total to 1.93" for the day. Caveat...what I mentioned about the USGS gauge being lower. It's total was 1.45". My dilemma. Which is more accurate? A tipping bucket or a hepatic gauge?

I’m going to say it, this totally asinine, delusional wishcast going around twitter, that a -PDO and “other factors” are going to somehow override and play a bigger role than the strongest east-based, super El Niño in history isn’t even worthy of a response. It’s the little game the usual suspects on the east coast play every year at this time. Complete idiocy