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it wasn't done yet, I'll post the full run when I have it, it's goods for all , very juicy

I plan to be a first shovel at 1 p.m. if it flips after it’ll have snow on the grown, if all snow basically cut in half. Praying to baby Jesus it’s all snow and I get 12”. That’s my goal - a foot.

You think they drift west enough to make it on shore?

Indeed and everybody was mature and extremely helpful in tracking this thing. Incredible storm regardless of how much we receive

RAP would’ve been 12+ if it kept running

That's not saying much about having better transit than Baltimore

Mostly sleet with some ZR in the Triad. Cars already have a glaze and tree branches felt a little wet and crunchy. Going to be a long storm with ZR already showing up.

North of 90 ain’t like that

Further west in these setups is typically more favorable. Cold air near the surface is very tough to erode within the Piedmont down through the Shenandoah. South to southeast flow can eventually get here and change over ptype, but they are last to change in a typical setup.

Had to look, still some skiers out there, wouldn't want drive down that mountain in this. Just started a sleet freezing rain mix IMBY.

That's what I thought, makes sense.

Lakeshore on #10 across the hill from the Clubhouse- where u at?

Well we made it, radar is starting to fill in! Think its safe to say: Before we start seeing obs posts, Ill echo what others have said, we have a good group, its been busier in this thread than its been for awhile and a blast watching this take shape!

They have a better transit system there than Baltimore. Seriously. And the pipes are thawed!! I don't think there's any damage, and I've left on the upstairs bathroom sink to trickle.

NBC12 has cut back a tad as well, now 3-6" down from 4-8"

Yet they seem to liking the GFS in Tennessee

@psuhoffman just made a great post about the model situation for this storm. “So I’ve never seen this drastic of a split between the globals and American run CAMs at this range. What’s odd about this and gives me no past reference to draw on is typically when we see this kind of thing the euro and rgem/HRDPS kind of bridge the gap as those 3 are decent at seeing mid level warming. But they are all in the camp with the other globals (UK/Icon/gfs). The impact is most drastic actually for Maryland. Around DC and south we’re talking maybe the difference between 4-5” and 6-8”. But for places NW of 95 in extreme NW VA up through central MD we’re talking the difference between 5-6” and 10-12”! The divergence seems simple. The globals along with the Canadian high res models have an intense WAA band over the area from 12z-18z that the American CAMs do not. That’s why they are warmer. Less dynamic cooling to fight off the WAA at mid levels. Also less precip. That combo means 6” instead of 12” for places like Winchester-Frederick-westminster. What this comes down to imo is which camp is correct about the precip representation from 12-18z. Unfortunately I don’t have any great insight. Usually here is when I’d be saying “in this or that situation this is what happened” but I can’t remember a single case like this to draw upon. I guess I’m gonna ride with the euro camp. It would be hard to take the NAM and a bunch of experimental stuff over the highest verification tools we have. But on the other hand those CAMs were designed for this. When they score the euro a 30 mile shift in 800 mb temps and a meso scale precip band aren’t really going to impact those scores at all! Yes I just contradicted myself. If I had to make a forecast maybe I’d hedge and go in between even though that’s probably not the most likely outcome, one of these camps is going to win”

Unfortunate to see it’s the HRRR verifying. Those totals were apocalyptic.

No prob. I figured I was mostly cooked in the big snow dept 3 days ago but I also assumed I would get 3" of snow no matter what. Today's models and upstream obs in TN mostly verifying made me change my mind that 3" of clean snow would be the high bar. Temps have been breaking colder. My high was 21 (forecast 25) and I'm already down to 14 with a forecast low of 17. I'm sitting at a half inch of snow right now and the sleet line is where models had it so I expect the flip to be on time around 12-1am. I skeptical I hit 3" before the sleet moves in but I have a few hours to go.

I’m the same way.. It’s almost go time so I’ll be on now.

Probably not much for snow vs sleet since the problem there isn't a few hundred feet in elevation, rather warming at 9k-10k feet.

Sort of a snow/sleet/graupel deal in north Raleigh .