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  2. ladies and gentlemen the moment youve been waiting for the case study for the may 31st 1985 tornado outbreak a meteorological breakdown
  3. I know it isn’t the case, it can’t be, but I have this image from your posts that the only time your kids have any fun at all (throughout the entire year) is in hot, summer weather lol. And for the other 9 months of the year, they just look out the window longingly… as a single tear runs down the face.
  4. This looks great for dry and cooler than normal weather for the area. Not so good for rain. Any disturbance that tries to gain latitude will likely end up well offshore.
  5. You live in one of the few areas left in New England that still gets good winter. I’d be cheering on yore winters like we used to have from Nov- Morch
  6. As of 5pm advisory from NHC, no surface circulation was found. It has been reduced from an orange to lemon.
  7. Had a low of 59 this morning and a high of only 73. Current temp is 68 already. Tonight starts the Fall weather here in August. Temps this week will be from the 60s to around 70 degrees for highs. Lows will be the 40s and around 50 with possible 30s in areas. This is the real deal folks so enjoy.
  8. the first few snow events are genuinely refreshing and nostalgic, but the heating costs, illness/flu, miserable populace doesn't excite me.
  9. I went from ACATT to cheering on Mowvember through Thanksgiving. Hope for a couple of big events and a deep winter stretch in late Dec and Jan and then start cheering on sun angle and Morch.
  10. One week left and the driest August on record (at DCA) is absolutely in play
  11. Maybe the Villages will make a few exceptions for folks
  12. ………………………………………………. “why winter is even worth it ….…………………………………………… because of …”just hanging out having a great time and seeing the kids just enjoying themselves” …. your same 14 words. Stay well, as always ….
  13. winter is exactly the reason why the beach is so much fun in the summer if you could have a summer beach experience any old time, it wouldn't be nearly as much fun
  14. It really isn’t anymore . Go into winter with a low expectation and more often than not for the rest of at least my life. That’s how they’ll be . . We’ll all be tracking this winter. But best for most of to expect another bad winter. Especially with that warm Pac pool . That thing is the kiss of death for EC winters.
  15. To educate/help the non professional (and I don’t mean not intelligent) descriptive terms like heat dine are preferable to ‘ mid-tropospheric ridges’. When you’re trying to get the public’s attention on heart health would you talk about the potential of getting a ‘widow maker’ or a mycardio infarction. Which one is likely to keep the pedestrian reading? In either case both sides of the equation is equal. it’s actually good to have a person of different opinion in a group as a leavening agent. Providing that all discussions and retorts are civil and not just superficial. For that reason, during a period of time when our sub forum area may face a cold season event I look to read S19’s thought. and forky’s along with, like yourself, other well versed members..if all else fails I just listen to the ballad Turn, Turn, Turn and straighten myself out. Stay well, as always ……
  16. Honest to God. I’m at the beach just hanging out having a great time and seeing the kids just enjoying themselves….makes me wonder why winter is even worth it.
  17. Today
  18. Absolute soaking in Albemarle/Charlottesville probably over 1 inch already...
  19. I don't know if this has already been posted but this is a great write up to share with others: https://www.weather.gov/media/gyx/DGT/DGT_GYX_08212025.pdf
  20. It feels like the front is coming through. The wind suddenly picked up from what feels like the NW and the air feels cooler and drier.
  21. Looks like today's storms are going to be very wildly scattered ie a big nothingburger.
  22. Parts of the region could see a shower tonight or early tomorrow as a cold front moves across the region. In the wake of the frontal passage, high temperatures will top out in the lower and perhaps middle 80s tomorrow before the push of cooler air overspreads the region. Following the arrival of the cool air, high temperatures will top out mainly in the upper 70s and lows will fall to lower 60s in New York City through at least Friday. Outside the City, lows in the 50s will be widespread. On account of the cool air, August 2025 will be among the five coolest Augusts since 2000. There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was +15.90 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.087 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.0° (2.1° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.
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