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Congrats Brian. Nice lightshow to my south early this morning. Between a shower yesterday and a light shower as the storm passed to my south a big .17"!

What I mean by exaggerated is with respect to the DJF mean pattern...it's probably going to be too cold in December, and while that DJF mean map may very well be representative of one month (February), it's highly likely to be overly reflected in the DJF mean on the model.

.67" last night from the few rounds of storms. I was just south of the worst by 2 miles or so. Just a little wind but torrential rain and very loud thunder. @hudsonvalley21 was definitely in the brunt of the storm.

The cold dominating a large portion of the E US and it being the coldest land area on the entire globe goes all the way back to the first Jamstec run with DJF, April! April: May: June: July: Aug:

Breaking the July 1936 record was mostly a function of the much warmer minimum temperatures this year. This July was only the 6th warmest for maximum temperatures behind 1936. But it was the warmest July for minimum temperatures. So the average of the two put this year in 1st place. Much higher dewpoints these days due to the warmer overall global temperatures which holds more moisture. So the low temperatures can’t drop as low. Plus the record corn production adds to the dewpoints and warmer minimums in the areas which experienced the worst of the Dust Bowl in the Plains.

Wayyy too much optimism in this thread. We could use a Bluewave tutorial on how CC has engineered the failure of past auspicious seasonal runs by way of gargantuan ridges eating away the troughs like Pacman.

Looks like Roundy has JB in his corner. That's a duo I wouldn't want to be forecasting against.

We are def. due for a stretch like that.

Yea, I made that comparison the other day. I think it's valid, but exaggerated..

Heard a bunch of thunder and some lightning but no measurable rain here

I know you weren't...just was verifying to see. Not too uncommon around these parts to see very short-lived TDS signatures so was curious if that could have been the case

I definitely wasn’t implying tornadic lol more just an isolated high level wind signature.

Paul, you have made many claims in the last few comments. These look like strawmen to me, and I have summarized them below. To me, it appears you are making these comments to show that the accepted process of dealing with raw noisy data is flawed, and therefore that published climate trends are based on a flawed process. "86% of breakpoints are undocumented" → implies the algorithm should mostly find documented breaks. It's designed to catch undocumented ones — a high rate is expected, not damning. "Chester County's raw data shows no significant county-wide trend, so warming is manufactured by adjustment" → implies mainstream science predicts a clean, significant trend in every small local raw sample. Nobody claims that — a handful of stations in one county is noisy by nature, which is the whole reason homogenization exists. "The correction is a smooth ramp, not a step, so no single event explains it" → implies a legitimate correction must be one discrete jump. Many small breaks stacked over decades naturally produce a ramp-shaped cumulative correction. "Some stations (Coatesville 2W, Hopewell) got zero adjustment, proving selectivity" → implies adjustments should be applied roughly evenly everywhere. A detector that only flags real breaks and leaves clean stations alone is working correctly, not cherry-picking. "Highs are warming while lows are cooling — that's a contradiction" → implies day/night trends must move together. Diurnal-range divergence is a documented, separately-studied climate phenomenon, not a paradox. Yet, the Chester County raw data is in good agreement with published climate trends, more so when the urban makeup of the pre-1940 station group is taken into account. I suggest looking into the West Chester 2 NW records to document the rest of the breakpoint.

I saw the light and it was dark. As always …….

Doesn't look like anything tornadic but certainly looks like a decent little wind signature between Orange and Milford

Looks like tree topper tor there

Good site, but an important snowstorm from 2009-10 is missing.

august classic

I wonder how cold Feb, alone, is in the E US. Also, I wonder if any individual winter months are colder than the prior run. I bet this DJF avg is incorporating a relatively mild Dec compared to Jan and especially Feb, which would mean quite a cold Feb. Note that the E US is the coldest land area throughout the world, which is also the case on other models. In addition, Alaska and W Canada are quite warm, which typically teleconnect with a cold E US.

I know it’s always overzealous with the tropics but the recent GFS run shows 4 separate MDR systems in a row including 94L and 92L, the current invests. While Caribbean shear and the TUTT over SW Atlantic persists this active wave could really boost season numbers tho I doubt any get far west or very strong

Continued improvement for our area with drought expansion for the rest of the CONUS.

I don't know why we are expending energy with this denier BS - they're not going to get it. Cows would understand this by now; they are too predisposed in their myopic agenda. They spin around in these tiny little realms of tedious and ultimately meaningless insularity, insulating them from seeing/understand the holistic perspective. That kind of fallacy of approach to reality can only be explained by one or two causes: irreparable stupidity, or, amoral lying. Either way ... life is too short to give them all this time. There's no point in arguing with them. The objective reality is: CC is real, humans are causing it. The amount of that role is causing debate? so what! It doesn't change the fact that the species is at minimum exacerbating (then), which still makes them just as responsible. In either scenario causing or contributing to our demise is just as explicitly culpable. End discussion It kind of reminds me of the Samuel Clemens quip. Paraphrasing: 'never argue with a stupid person. It requires bringing you down to their stupid level where they are masters of the craft'

That composite almost looks like 2009-10 in North America. That was the one that produced record warmth in Western Canada, which had an effect on the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver.