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That track would be quite disastrous for Jamaica as it rakes most of the island with the front right quadrant. Not to mention the huge amount of moisture that will be lifted and squeezed out by the mountains.

What about this: Similarly, while we incessantly — and correctly — hear about increasing heat deaths from rising temperatures, we rarely hear that deaths from exposure to cold are much more deadly and decline with rising temperatures. A comprehensive global model, published by The Lancet, shows that the temperature increase this century has reduced cold deaths much more than it has increased heat deaths, meaning that each year, more than 150,000 people each year don’t die from temperature-related mortality.

Close up of Harrisburg Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Going through a box from attic this weekend I got hit by a blast from the past. This amazing, expensive map from 1991 was my weather tracking bible. I used to record weather channel on VHS so that I could pause weather radar to outline on paper and estimate on my close up map Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Been a pretty boring month. Hopefully next one is better.

I forecast @cyclone77 and MLI to get more snow than they received last winter.

I would take the entire historic season again!

Not pro, but some ridiculous crazy things were going on around college basketball in the 1970s - 1980s especially Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

This is why I only care about snow.

Yea, I personally don't see it as a big deal, but it certainly doesn't hurt the case for an official La Niña designation.

High of 72 after low of 45. Dew points in the upper 30's have made for a very dry day.

Chris, Thanks. I still don’t see why the reduction of sulfates would cause such a sudden warming in the Pacific over a short period in early 2023. That still seems odd and thus it’s pretty fascinating!

@CT Rain GenCast is an AI-powered weather forecasting model developed by Google DeepMind that uses a diffusion model to generate probabilistic 15-day global forecasts

Not even out of October and Wiggum has us buckling up...

Lamar practiced yesterday and today, but was limited. Really need to see him be a full participant tomorrow to be confident he will play Sunday. Bears lead the league in forcing turnovers. Cooper Rush will fumble twice and throw 4 picks lol.

GENC it's all the new AI crap I think

INS (INeedSnow) Ensemble.

I remember seeing something like this on the Ens a couple of weeks ago too.

I wouldn’t at all be surprised if IOD were to go positive as early as January based on past seasonal patterns and the recent positive favored IOD era we’re now in. If El Niño is going to occur next year, I’d think that would probably also help it rise.

What model is this?

12z Google DeepMind And 12z Google GenCast The *current* consensus is to slide it towards Western Jamaica before it turns north

Yea, the healthy -IOD bolsters the case for not jumping ship due to the subsurface...I didn't get into the IOD and GLAAM here because it was just a brief updated synopsis, but I definitely will in the seasonal analysis.

While unlikely we watch!

Yeah, nothing to it.