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Roaring PAC jet + background fast flow, brutal combo Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Some people just love forecasting based off enso and ignore the other factors.

Their pasta is way too oily.

ICON and CMC landfall in NJ shocking

Believe snowshoe top of mountain has their first flakes of the season https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/skidder-slope-live-cam. Think I'll head out to the mountains and try to catch the jet streak induced precip.

United States Department of Commerce Toggle navigation Watches, Warnings & Advisories One product issued by NWS for: 2 Miles SW Valley Hill NC Frost Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 121 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 GAZ010-017-NCZ035-064-065-501>507-509-SCZ101>103-171330- /O.NEW.KGSP.FR.Y.0004.261018T0500Z-261018T1300Z/ Rabun-Habersham-Alexander-Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains- Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains- Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Including the cities of Bethlehem, Pleasant Grove, Dysartsville, East Flat Rock, Clarkesville, Mountain City, Hendersonville, Cornelia, Stony Point, Fero, Hollywood, Demorest, Sugar Hill, Ashford, Ellendale, Tuxedo, Saluda, Fletcher, Taylorsville, Granite Falls, Cedar Mountain, Hiddenite, Chimney Rock State Park, Mountain Rest, Kings Creek, Millersville, Jonas Ridge, Etowah, Lenoir, Sawmills, Glenwood, Woodlawn, Baldwin, Valdese, Morganton, Rocky Bottom, Nebo, Brevard, Old Fort, Marion, Patterson, Glassy Mountain, Little River, Dana, Pine Mountain, and Clayton 121 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 36 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Portions of northeast Georgia, the foothills of North Carolina, and the South Carolina mountains. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday.

Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham- Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson- Including the cities of Black Mountain, Cullowhee, Ingalls, Franklin, Hot Springs, Luada, Sylva, Micaville, Allenstand, Tuckasegee, Kyle, Busick, Poplar, Waterville, Candler, Marshall, Luck, Canton, Asheville, Wolf Mountain, Almond, Faust, Rainbow Springs, Newland, Cruso, Cashiers, Waynesville, Cove Creek, Walnut, Celo, Swiss, Spruce Pine, Ramseytown, Burnsville, Alarka, Mars Hill, Wesser, Bryson City, Highlands, Robbinsville, Banner Elk, and Stecoah 121 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as the upper 20s and lower 30s expected. * WHERE...A portion of western North Carolina. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday.

0.56" Looks like another round about to move through.

The temps slowed way down like they saw a state trooper or something haha lol .

Good work! Here's the noaa comparison.

On 10/5, I posted a detailed analysis of how the Oct Euro did for winter for the 9 years 2017-25: Tally: -did well in 19 and esp. 17 -did pretty well 21 -did pretty badly 23, 22, 20, 18 -did terribly 25, 24 -too cold both El Niños in SE and 1 of 2 in NE -NE: too warm on 4, close on 3, too cold on 2 -SE: too warm on 3, close on 2, too cold on 4

After huge busts the last 2 winters, this one could've been in the bag. Milder than avg winter, easy call with a strong nino. But thats not enough. Every seasonal forecast is now way too cool . Take the Euro for instance. It was way too warm in the east last winter. BUT in 2023-24 it wasnt warm enough, so just use that. In fact, let's just round up to +20° for everyone and no snow anywhere.

I thinks it’s a prelude of winter’s behavior. fast fast fast any short waves worth a shit will speed up through the field proportional to to their strength.

First freeze tomorrow night might also be a hard freeze. I'd have to look back in my records but I believe we have had a couple of those the last several years.

The high temperature of 87 at Martinsburg, West Virginia broke the daily record. It had a high 87, a low of 59, and an average temperature of 73, which was 18 degrees above average. The high was only 82 at Washington-Dulles, which is not that far away.

So true. Its tough to get into college football when its 80* outside

I don't think you can totally discount the loss of MC forcing, though....so don't count your carbon footprints before they are made.

That's not going to stop it. What will stop it is climate engineering which is already underway and which will rapidly accelerate beginning in 2030. Yes but ignorant people dont even realize they are ignorant. He's willfully ignorant. The fossil fuel cartel loves that that's why it was so easy for them to engage in a 50 year cover up. Clearly billion dollar disasters are on a rapid rise. He is an entitled ignorant fool who makes no sense and doesn’t know or care about what's going on in the world. And there is more to the planet than one's own property which deniers dont get. This planet can't support 8 billion as it is NOW AND we see evidence of that everywhere. The fossil fuel cartels have been trying to cover it up since the 1970s. It's not just coastal areas billion dollar disasters are on a rise everywhere. Exxon began the cover-up in the 1970s we have proof of that. This is a major failing of the democratic system. In addition to stripping first amendment rights from corporations and preventingbsuper mergers like Exxon Mobil we also need to stop letting ignorant people vote. Doing those two things will fix most issues. I love Star Trek but perhaps those aliens should have been annihilated by The Federation. You are completely wasting your time with a fool who actually thinks fossil fuels are a good thing. The fossil fuel cartels are directly involved with the sixth mass extinction in the planet's history. They aren't the only ones but they are a major culprit. The polar bears who are cannibalizing each other haven't even been brought up yet. Instead do something worthwhile and check out my conversation with AI that I posted in the science forum. It depends on where you live. If you live in an island nation in the Pacific and must migrate you better bet it's an existential threat. That's why mass migration is now happening. This is just the beginning the fact is this horrible event should never have been allowed to happen.in the first place.

good thing my baseball tournament is not south and east of Baltimore