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The timeframe around the 15th or so has fairly consistently looked like it could be the best attempt at amplification we’ve seen so far this winter, which is definitely not saying much. Whether or not we can get some better phasing of features there remains to be seen, and probably will for a good while yet considering the range and model performance lately. There’s some potential there though, and during a period next week which should be at least seasonably cold. But in the meantime while we’re warmer and occasionally raining the next few days, 30 year anniversary of the Blizzard of 96 highlights might have to fill the void. Regarding the lack of bigger coastal snowstorms as of late in our neck of the woods, the Northeastern US apparently hasn’t had a RSI (NESIS) rated event since March 12-16th, 2023 (I had to do digging just to remember what that one did). There’s a slight chance the event right after Christmas might’ve snowed enough over more populated areas (NYC) to be a minimally rated one and hasn’t been added yet, but the point still stands. The last major rated NE storm was the Jan 31-Feb 2, 2021 storm.

Euro AI had storm with lighter amounts near coast. Euro is a hit.

But 15 seconds left with a timeout to spare.. the offense is moving the ball so well... you really are going to make a rookie kicker, who's longest FG all year is 52yds, on the road in Pittsburgh, so loud, kick a 40+ yd FG when he leads the league in erratic kickoffs, going out of bounds? You shouldn't say put it all on one play, but that call definitely costed Harbaugh his job.

Warmth over the next few days will prob take out our very minor snowpack here (probably 2” of slush left). Guess I’m watching Saturdays system but it’s not looking like anything huge.

The stats say go for it though, and that 99.9% of NFL coaches are too conservative in that regard. It's just frustrating when I see the numbers so clear, to have these big guys with tens of millions watching make the wrong call over and over. The one variable where coaches are too aggressive on is the 2-point attempt. It only works 31% of the time. So anything less than 50% is no unless it's a really special circumstance.

Happy anniversary

Yeah, that's probably more important. The SOI was positive 17 months in a row until Dec 2025 ended that streak, but for the first 15 months it was weak.. 0 to +10.. then we had 2 >+10 at the end, then it petered out. My ENSO subsurface monthly index is going to come in positive for Jan though.. not many Nina's that had warm subsurface in January. I'll have to see which ones had that. I know that testing all years gives more of a +PNA signal when the central-ENSO subsurface is warm.

Have faith young man we have recovered from worse even later.

With El Niño favored for next fall/winter, I looked at E US temps during multiyear La Niña Febs that immediately precede El Niño: 1911: cool NE/mild elsewhere 1918: cool NE/mild SE 1972: cool 1976: warm 2009: mild NE/NN SE 2018: warm 2023: warm Feb: SE temps/RDU snow1911: 1 AN/0”1918: 3 AN/T and some ZR1972: 5 BN/1.4” SN/IP1976: 5 AN/T2009: 1 AN/T2018: 7 AN/0”2023: 9 AN/0”Average of these 7 Febs at RDU: 3 AN, 0.2” SN/IPOf the 7:-one was cold-two were NN-four were mild to warm So, these analogs favor the @snowman19mild Feb thinking in the SE. So, if we get another 2/2014 like I think both@40/70 Benchmarkand Eric Webb are more or less favoring (correct me if I’m wrong), I’d be thrilled since these analogs don’t favor it. In the NE, these analogs are mixed with 3 BN and 4 AN. Here’s the avg of the 7 Febs: check out how warm the SE, Midsouth, lower MidAtlantic, and OH valley are:

Dang y'all old I was just 5 years old so I don't remember the whole picture but nevertheless it was my first snow memory! I remember my mom trying to teach me how to do snow angels, and telling me at first that the snow was too deep for me and it would be up to my chin (accurate, lol), and I remember being home from school. I'm so glad that's my first my memory of snow...it was awesome!

yeah - I was in Staunton - our neighborhood was a little bit higher than the center of town. We got around 33" or so. Missed school that whole week. So many snow forts and tunnels...

We’re the same age, I was 12 and remember it like it was yesterday. Got 30”+ in NJ

I was twelve - 3 feet of snow. All-timer.

im excited

From December until January 2nd subsurface. You can see very little movement has occurred but there is some decent potential showing up that the WWB event showing up may in fact trigger a kelvin wave that has some umpphhh behind it. Im curious if we can finally knock out the pesky cool anomaly that has been around even during the last Nino event around 140W in the subsurface. Im not so certain we push Nino status going into Spring and summer but certainly worth watching if more WWB's start to develop as time goes on. Fun stuff! Beginning of January a bit warmer than I expected but should quickly reverse course in the next week and finally dislodge the cold across Alaska and NW Canada.

That and probably genetics. You have at least some longevity in your bloodline. I attribute my own good fortune to pure luck. No one in my bloodline has made it out of their 70s. I like dad bod…I’m gonna use that for me! And one more thing/this winter is growing more sour by the day.

maybe see if Belichick wants to leave UNC

yep - it's the all-timer.

We've only had one month. And in that month, this year beats 93/94. WX/PT

Definitely pay attention mid month with that big PNA spike. Models trying to nose dive a northern stream disturbance. Miller B potential?

On the other hand, if this pattern coming up is nothing more than another tease, I am ok with a really early spring....just got my first seed catalog in the mail and the boys start indoor baseball this weekend, so I could go either way.

0z GFS is looking a lot more interesting for the chance on the 15th. Definitely room for possible improvement at the surface with this look at H5.

Yes it has looked and felt like winter. Good vibes, at least.

Right? Hopefully we can have a nice mid winter run for once. Not complaining though, despite the overall lack of snow, it has felt like winter for a change. Now lets gets some bigger systems and actually get an average winter for a change