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  2. Typhoon Tip
    There it is ... the new climate normal for snow in October
  3. FPizz
    2020 had some snow flakes around on the 30th.
  4. mitchnick
    You said it was - in 1998. I posted January-March 1998. That map is December, 1997-February 1998. That's not 1998.
  5. DocATL
    This is about as good as it gets. Best stretch of weather possible. Warm sunny days and cool nights. .
  6. DocATL started following October 2026 General Discussion
  7. forkyfork
    yes
  8. mitchnick
    Was it really? 1998 0.39 -0.11 0.87 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
  9. MJO812
  10. MJO812
    Judah Cohen
  11. NEG NAO
    2024 reached into the 80's the warmest Halloween on record and 2019 reached close to 80 BUT both 2012 and 2020 Halloweens were cancelled in many towns - 2012 because of power outages and damage from Sandy and 2020 because of Covid and 2012 and 2020 were both one of the coldest Halloweens on record with highs only in the 40's anyways - 2011 had measurable snow a couple days before Halloween
  12. forkyfork
    the nao was negative in 1998
  13. Avdave
    Finally hit the 30s this morning at 744am. Got down to 39* here. As usual Roxboro, the icebox of the piedmont did hit 32* this morning too.
  14. Cyclone-68
    I’m currently on a train heading north to the Grand Canyon. But even better than that is there a possibility of severe weather after tomorrow! Now THATS a vacation!
  15. Lucy Pull
    Yup agree on the omega look. Still think we’re prone to offshore flow and a similar look through 10 days. Have to see how long it takes to erode that. Modeling as you mention does look to push that out. We lose any semblance of negative heights northeast of Maine. Ahh yes another very productive post.
  16. SACRUS
    2024 : 83 in EWR / New Brunswick area NJ
  17. Keith Central PA
    I hate strong ninos and waiting for its demise.We peak early December and by next Summer neutral or a weak La Nina Definitely a more active hurricane season next year and a more promising winter then this probable disaster.
  18. mitchnick
    I should have included this as part of my thinking that this year will be better than 23/24. Compare the 10/23 forecast (top) from the Euro seasonal to the 10/26 forecast. Cfs2 was already painting a well AN winter forecast as of mid October, 2023. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/202310/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html
  19. stormy
    27.2 at 7 . the coup de grace to all frost sensitive plant life.
  20. mappy
    Yeah clots are no joke.
  21. Terpeast
    So would I for blizzards. But from their message, I wonder why they didn’t include flood warnings. I would think that flood warnings would be a top case for that kind of wording.
  22. LakePaste25
    Yup, right on schedule
  23. Typhoon Tip
    looks like yet another NINO 3.4 spike has take place... ~+3.2C now.
  24. mitchnick
    Thing is, the end of the Eps run from last night has a trough off the west coast retrograding wnw toward the GOA and the Euro weeklies have been, for at least 4 days in a row (could be longer, but I stopped at 4) putting a trough in the GOA and the SE US where the seasonal put them come mid-late November, subject to slight model to model variations. So we still need to wait as I ended my convo with Chuck, but MR is now lining up with seasonal progs, and that's as good as we can get from this point in time. P.s. It's been discussed some in other forums, but the North Pole ice shield is the largest in 10 or more years. Odd that could happen in this super Niño.
  25. Today
  26. mitchnick
    A low in the mean, so it doesn't guarantee a permanent low.
  27. mitchnick
    NAO will definitely end the month +. By exactly how much and its significance obviously tbd. Hopefully, Chuck's observation that any October +NAO favors the opposite for the winter prevails.
  28. winterwarlock
    I remember 2 fairly recent 80 plus Halloweens in the last 15 years
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