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Imelda getting retired, but not Idalia, doesn't make sense though: Imelda: Cat 1 (90 mph), 3 fatalities, 2 injuries, $10 million damage Idalia: Cat 4 (145 mph), 12 fatalites (8 direct/4 indirect), $3.5 billion damage Idalia was the stronger hurricane, caused more damage, and had more casulties. If Imelda was retired, Idalia should have been as well.

That a hurricane, a made up one by GFS

Rain on Sunday is close to certain

If a HU is a Cat 3 or higher for a U.S landfall, that usually means it gets retired, but not always (Brett in 1999 is an example). Anything less is typically not. The exceptions are when it produces big excessive rains, and you can have only a TS landfall and it will get retired, like Allison in 2001 and Imelda in 2019. And exception will be outside the tropics or subtropics Like a Mid-Atlantic or New England landfall Gloria in 1985 was a Cat 1 at LI landfall, and it was retired. I think that is largely due to the rarity of HU landfalls here, so overall impact is more since these areas not "used to" HU landfalls, unlike from Hatteras S.

Disregard my last post I know the answer I should be pouring in Jacksonville and Daytona y 5 and 6 pm ,,, I should have left earlier today ,,,, I will just punt and leave Sunday ,,,,, sorry for the banter guys

From a sensible wx impact for winds, there is big difference if a HU is intensifying vs. weakening at landfall An intensifying storm is more efficient in mixing down the very high winds found only 300-500 m up due to better convective updraft/downdraft couplets. This is one reason why Andrew was so nasty. You do not have this in a weakening HU. The convection is not as intense and often only partially encircling the center, so mixing down of the much stronger winds aloft is less. What you can get regardless of the trend, esp. just inland, is some very high gusts due to the collapsing convection in the form of downbursts.

High Wind Warning hoisted for the WNC Mountains above 3500 ft from midnight tonight until Sunday morning. Wind Advisory hoisted for the Mountains below 3500 ft for the same timeframe.

GOM hasn't had any significant tropical activity this year so the waters are quite warm. That helps.

Thank You ,,,, and Suzook or anyone else ,,,, if I left charlotte today ( I can be out of here by 1 pm ) I could be in Jacksonville and heading farther South by 6 pm would I be asking for trouble doing this drive at that time today as I know landfall is sometime this afternoon ,,, thanks again in advance

The main issue some of us have is the double standard of concern in Tuscaloosa vs virtually no concern in ATL (at least earlier…maybe this will change). The forecasted conditions for during the GT/Duke game in ATL Sat. afternoon are far worse than those for even the tailgating period (6 hrs before kickoff) in Tuscaloosa. Furthermore, the forecast for ATL is actually quite a big deal, which along with thunderstorm chances has a high wind warning and thus would be far worse than the typical breeziness of a Miller A:

We have been "spoiled" since 1995. Trust me, 1970-1994 was a bad time if you like Atlantic TCs. Not that there were not some biggies and some areas got hammered, but overall, it was quite lame.

she needs more time

We tend to recall the ones that did RI just before landfall, and that human nature and the wx weenie in us! But the flip side of the coin is just and important. What causes RI is just as important as what causes RW from a forecast POV, both short- and long-term. It remind me growing up, how frustrating it was in ern MA trying to figure out if the tstms coming in from the W would hold together or weaken./collapse. @CoastalWx knows this all too well I know. So that drives you to learn, figure out the deal, and it makes your a better forecaster.

Last night a lot of talk about how it would not get this strong and fall apart quick. It’s a new age now and a great increase in hurricanes that maintain and even strengthen at landfall

Looking windy and warm this weekend with upper 70's both days. Could even tag 80. Not a bad hand heading into mid October.

That's a good point. TIMING is everything! But I see far too often a wx event is taken as "all day" and so events that will clearly be before or after sig storm impacts are done and do not be to be cancelled. I mean, you now get *indoor* events cancelled for just some typical wind and rain now. Really? We can fine-tune forecasts better than ever now w/ models like the HRRR, RRFS, and HAFS, so we do not have to just issue a generic, blanket forecast. esp for the short-range. Having this capability saves an enormous amount of $$ and allows business and commerce to function better. It reminds me of something years ago. One evening, I went out to get pizza, and when I picked up my order, the person said "it's been slow tonight b/c of snow forecast!" You know what the forecast was? 1-3" of snow starting *after* midnight. So my previous posits about business and commerce being impacts is valid, and it hurts revenue for many businesses, big and small. You see how incessant hype and not quantifying risks/threats properly are detrimental to society. Cancellation of a major sport event is non-trivial as to costs, and it goes far beyond just that single event. They have to reschedule and that has downstream impacts often to the entire league. I often ask myself, what if the SB was in MSY or MIA, and there was a MDT or HIGH risk for svr wx for that day? I would not want to be the one to make the decision! In this case, the ante is extremely high on both sides! Actually, I do recall a case like this. In 2004, the Indy 500 was held despite a HIGH risk svr and a sig tor outbreak was likely. And when the event was over and people were leaving the area, there were tornadoes occurring in the IND area not more than 5 mi away!

Good writeup on Opal here, provides an excellent analog for impacts, albeit Opal was a category stronger at peak and landfall. Supports the idea of 10 ft storm surge and 100 mph + gusts at landfall along the immediate coast with hurricane Force gusts just inland https://www.weather.gov/mob/opal

Idk. While the impacts in the Mid-Atlantic and northeast may be more mundane, I do think that the fact this is going to eventually interact with a shortwave as it pulls north is a red flag for inland areas that are on the eastern side of the center. That combo can be a prolific tornado producer. I also think we need to consider how this holds together inland. This is one of the areas where models like HAFS have been falling short. Now we see this being fairly well put together inland, and that means hurricane gusts could be possible well inland. From the 11am discussion in part: Weakening will occur after landfall, but sustained hurricane-force winds will likely occur near and along Isaias's track up to 100 miles inland from the coast into southern Alabama, and gusts to hurricane force could extend even farther north into central Alabama. Isaias is likely to lose its tropical characteristics by 36 hours when it is over northern Alabama.

JMA OCTOBER UPDATE **I think I rotated map too much, so actually the bottom needs to swing a little to the right. I think you'll see it makes a difference. Sorry about that. DJF DEC JAN **For individual months Jan is as far out as one can go until next month's update.

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating Isaias measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 120 kt within the eastern eyewall a few hours ago, prompting an upgrade of the hurricane to major hurricane status with estimated surface winds of 105 kt. Based on the last several dropsondes released in the eye, the central pressure appears to have leveled off around 959 mb. On the last pass through the eastern eyewall, just about a half hour ago, the plane measured a flight-level wind of 111 kt, suggesting that the peak winds may have also leveled off. The eye itself has become cloud filled in visible satellite imagery, but it is now moving into range of several WSR-88D radars along the northern Gulf coast. Strong deep-layer shear has definitely increased as forecast, with various analyses now showing 30-40 kt out of the southwest. However, the shear vector is nearly aligned with the storm's motion, which limits its adverse effects, and upper-level divergence is also increasing over the hurricane. This setup has likely allowed the hurricane to intensify this morning, and the hurricane regional models (HAFS-A, HAFS-B, and HWRF), as well as the statistical-dynamical models (SHIPS and LGEM), all suggest that Isaias could maintain major hurricane intensity up until its landfall this evening. Therefore, the NHC official forecast depicts Isaias with 100-kt winds just offshore the western Florida Panhandle this evening. Weakening will occur after landfall, but sustained hurricane-force winds will likely occur near and along Isaias's track up to 100 miles inland from the coast into southern Alabama, and gusts to hurricane force could extend even farther north into central Alabama. Isaias is likely to lose its tropical characteristics by 36 hours when it is over northern Alabama. Aircraft fixes indicate that Isaias has drifted a bit east of the previous forecast track. NHC's track forecast leans on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, closest to the latest HCCA and GDMI guidance, and implies a potential landfall along the extreme western Florida Panhandle coast this evening. After moving inland, the center of Isaias is expected to continue northward through Alabama, before turning northeastward over the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys (as a post-tropical remnant low) on Sunday. Now that the eye has become visible in WSR-88D coastal radars, hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued beginning at 11 AM CDT (1600 UTC). Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida. Residents under evacuation orders should leave immediately and follow advice from local officials. 2. Extremely dangerous and damaging hurricane force-winds are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should have a safe room to ride out the storm and prepare for long-duration power outages. 3. Damaging wind gusts are likely over a large portion of the southeastern United States from western and northern Georgia westward over much of central and northern Alabama, southern middle Tennessee, and Mississippi, especially in areas of higher terrain. Residents should secure loose outdoor items, avoid driving high-profile vehicles, prepare for power outages, and be aware of the potential for falling trees. 4. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast through the weekend. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and significant river flooding, are possible. 5. The tornado potential will increase this afternoon and continue through tonight. The greatest risk will be east of the center, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. This risk will continue spreading north-northeast across parts of the Southeast on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 27.7N 87.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 29.7N 86.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 32.1N 87.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0000Z 34.2N 87.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 11/1200Z 36.5N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 12/0000Z 39.1N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...CENTER OF ISAIAS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST THIS EVENING... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DEVASTATING WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA COASTS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 87.3W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

Recon shows this has either peaked or leveled off. NHC noted they now expect a major at/just before LF

That, and the fact I can only pronounce it correctly 1 out of every 10 tries.