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Laughable changes

Looks workable. Would rather there be cold air looming around nearby with room for the southern stream to juice up than be in a suppressive / fast NS dominated pattern all winter. When cold patterns / blocking relax is when we tend to get our biggies

Milwaukee area radar

I had a nice dusting this morning in Fuquay-Varina. Nice surprise. I had to sleep and missed it. It was a nice surprise for SE wake!!!

Such a crap model

First bands all snow so far but the dewpoint is 32.

ICON completely lost Sunday's wave

Actually, the model in the 500mb progs has been pretty decent overall, but it's not a normal dynamical model, so it doesn't follow the same exact principles and biases that other models do. It is basically one giant analog that uses historical variance and comes out with a progression that makes sense given recent patterns. The issue with the AIFS and AIFS ensemble is it doesn't account for those dynamical inputs that provide more detailed QPF distributions and more advanced ptype algorithms. I use it for a proxy in QPF (Spatial) and the mean 500mb pattern. The rest you have to use your meteorology and some real time context for what could transpire given the forecast pattern evolution. You have to be careful with the AI at long leads as the model will still be subject to variability due to temporal regulation and the idea of chaos increasing in a dynamical fluid (Atmosphere) as we move out in time.

Will it know about the damaging effects of the sun angle on snow accumulations?

DC would average 20" lol

Maybe look up the definition of the word historic. I don't think you're using it correctly.

I was trying to zoom in to see if the plates but my eyes suck. I'll remove the post.

AI bros ftw

Beautiful state in any season. I grew up about 25 miles north of WV in SE Ohio

It says on the caption it's ai generated lol

Yeah, that tipped me off too. I don’t know what’s going on there, but that’s not Portland the other day.

At 8:30 it was raining in Holland and transitioned to snow around Zeeland with white roads by the time I got to Hudsonville.

Schools already closing in anticipation for this event

Let’s just get rid of PA and turn it into a Great Lake.

That's not Portland, Plate on that vehicle is not from Maine, Neither are those vehicles.

Probably no more CAD events, but lot more lake effect bands, light events that get chewed up etc.

Looks fake

Lol. I was just sitting here wondering what our weather would be like if the mountains weren't there...

I vote we blow up the mountains.

Despite the change on the 18Z runs the ingredients for this are still in no man’s land. This was stated by someone on the SNE forum too. I think this will change about two times over in the next 36-48 hours. There is even a risk for this thing to be a rainer honestly given the setup but I’d still lean towards a miss being the more likely fail