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Also looks like the models are backing off some on the hot temperatures next week.

Still pretty good for this time of year...3.2' at Little Falls: https://www.potomacpaddlesports.com/potomac-river-level.aspx?lnav=resource Years back, when I still could canoe, I think low flow was about 2.8 for float-n-fish trips. Water grows clear in dry periods too. Too clear. Fish notice these things.

I agree with this. The subseasonal forcing that's lining up is very favorable, but it still needs to consolidate out of what looks to be a large wave envelope over marginal SSTs and that's probably going to take quite a bit of time.

I appreciate that, very much...

Wouldn't get too worked up about it just yet. Still a lot of time to derail it. Just keep an eyeball on it. We'll let ya know when we think it's time to worry.

Saw a baby on one of my runs a few weeks ago

I'll be a nervous wreck for the next 5 days I see. Praying this doesn't occur. Not just for the sake of my vacation but for the sake of anyone and everyone along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.

For Knoxville, location is important. North Knoxville will generally do better than other spots, it's generally more elevated. Also, in addition to key missing data, the airport isn't in Knoxville really. It's SE of Knoxville in an extremely densely paved area. It's warmer and records less snow than folks do even a few miles away now.

Yeah I see a lot of similarities to this upcoming winter from last cold season. If we can get that cold air in here we always have a chance.

Thanks Liberty, you’re not kidding! What a difference from the past number of days. AQI is 1 today which is pretty rare, compared to 100+ with the smoke! .

Best fuel for molotov cocktails is diesel. Spreads flames and doesn’t explode in your face as soon as you light it. if you only have gasoline, and alternative method is to get some styrofoam and mix it with the gas until you get kind of slurry/gelatin. This is essentially napalm - well lets just call it for what it is: its actual Napalm. Don’t get it on you. It is sticky af. You cannot put it out either until its done burning. I think there is enough O in the styrofoam to keep it going even submerged. Very nasty but effective. It also will not explode as easily if mixed properly, so safer than molotov with gas (if safety is a priority). I would reserve these remedies for only the most stubborn wasps. Basic brake cleaner is super effective without even lighting it! Go with that first.

Same to you Rob! .

Incredible weather alert

Beautiful day, but we need rain again. Drove over the Potomac and Shenandoah today near Harper's Ferry and there are lots of rocks exposed again... trees in my neighborhood are also showing signs of stress.

12Z UKMET maps are in at 168 hours. The question on that run for Conus had it gone out further is would the TD have recurved between those two H5 ridges and allow a safe recurve or would that weakness have filled in to block it and result in a U.S. threat? We’ll never know but fun to speculate: 12 UKMET at 168 (8/15 AM) sfc: moving WNW at 18 mph 430 miles ENE of PR: 12Z UKMET at 168 at H5: weakness between ridges just to NW could have later easily recurved it safely from Conus well OTS (though could then threaten Bermuda) had it not filled in but we’ll never know:

Pretty wide spread still. Aug 18-22 most likely IF it threatens imo.

We think this is that

Earliest heat wave is Feb 2020.

feels like we are gonna pay for this at some point

I appreciate you doing that for me. That makes me nervous, knowing there may be absolutely nothing to stop it from gaining strength and on top of that, shooting directly at Florida or into the Gulf.

Basically, this one could very well be a threat to either the Gulf States, Florida or the East Coast and there's no telling until about 5 days or so from now. IF it did happen, what would your best guess be on the date that it would arrive to Contus?

Models did the same thing in 1954

Got me a new complete weather station coming tomorrow.. looks to be a lot more accurate that my last one ... opinions?

The EPS and GEFS both came out hot with current 96L as well and slowly backed off to the point now we're seeing significantly less individual ensembles even produce a weak tropical disturbance, if anything at all. The EPS was consistent with the quick recurve north and looks to have notched a victory here with regards to track, but initially it was much more potent with 96L. All of that to say... Until there's an actual tropical system, these models usually run hot on development. I think this next wave will take longer to develop than currently modeled. I believe the pattern favors the next wave making it into the SW Atlantic, and the environment is much more conducive to development. Give it 4-5 days here and the ensembles will be telling

Just noise, otherwise seems locked in.