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  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nino 1+2 was close to 0.0 in 09-10. It was also the #1 most -NAO Winter on record, going back to the mid-1800s.
  3. wncsnow
    That's my concern. Some models are pushing those heavier totals west with this strong Bermuda High. TN Valley looks inundated for sure but how much makes it east of the Apps?
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    09-10 showed that we can get a good winter out of a strong modoki el nino. We just need a good blocking pattern.
  5. JTA66
    87F at noon with a DP of 70F
  6. ChescoWx
    Below is an analysis of when our daily climate records have occurred here in Chester County PA. Temperature, Precipitation and Snow daily records. Of note the decades of the 1930's through the 1950's accounted for 39% of our record high temperature records. The most daily record highs were recorded during the 1940's. The decades of the 1970's through 1990's recorded 40% of all of our daily record low temperatures across the county. With the 1980's recording the most daily record low temperatures. Precipitation wise the 2010's saw the most daily record precipitation records while the 1960's saw the greatest number of daily snow records.
  7. LoboLeader1
    Currently 86 here as of noon.
  8. Torch Tiger
    It would be fun to see early season tropical activity. Severe looks non-existent
  9. qg_omega
    Disaster for Memorial Day weekend
  10. ChescoWx
    Below is an analysis of when our daily climate records have occurred here in Chester County PA. Temperature, Precipitation and Snow daily records. Of note the decades of the 1930's through the 1950's accounted for 39% of our record high temperature records. The most daily record highs were recorded during the 1940's. The decades of the 1970's through 1990's recorded 40% of all of our daily record low temperatures across the county. With the 1980's recording the most daily record low temperatures. Precipitation wise the 2010's saw the most daily record precipitation records while the 1960's saw the greatest number of daily snow records.
  11. Malacka11
    Good bit of boom with em
  12. Torch Tiger
    Yeah the overall look on LR - weeklies never looked particularly warm, last week for ex. Talked about it then
  13. dendrite
    71.4° SCT skies Beautiful day
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Believe it or not, April and May have a slight inverse correlation. There is 0.1 tendency for the NAO in these months to reverse each other.
  15. GaWx
    FWIW, it appears as of the current GEFS 14 day forecast that we’re probably headed for a net relatively small -NAO for May as a whole.
  16. frontranger8
    Most models are also showing a decent amount of additional precip Tue-Wed.
  17. Typhoon Tip
    Chuck, I just dropped this over in the ENSO thread because I believe that's relevant -
  18. A-L-E-K
    grateful for the comma head graze job as we could use the rain
  19. Typhoon Tip
    Folks may have some issue fatigue but ...too bad. We are currently crossing a date-relative historic max in the global mean temperature. This curve looks disconcerting, particularly when considering A, the quadratures are all bursting at the same time: SH/NH, Arctic/Antarctic, and Tropics. B, the last time Earth chose spring as the time of year to to flip the ENSO scrip, - to +, the whole planet did something not seen ever before: rose almost a half deg C within a two month span of time. Not sure if magnitude of ENSO means anything to that? - but I'll tell ya, it doesn't intuitively 'feel' very comforting seeing the environmental cues going so massive with the ensuing +ENSO state.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Might see a little bit of a spike happening in the next few weeks/months
  21. frontranger8
    Had .3" yesterday and another .15" overnight from heavy drizzle. Still looks good to pick up at least another .5" from this storm today.
  22. sbnwx85
    #ready2bgusted
  23. Typhoon Tip
    Folks may have some issue fatigue but ...too bad. We are currently crossing a date-relative historic max in the global mean temperature. This curve looks disconcerting, particularly when considering the quadratures are all bursting at the same time: SH/NH, Arctic/Antarctic, and Tropics.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    March-April 2026 NAO of +4.08 fits the warm Earth pattern going forward, that I have started to observe happening (notice how much of the N. Hemisphere is warm in the next 4 months: these composites are not AGW weighted, old analogs are equal to new analogs) The pattern rolls forward to some +NAO conditions, at least early on, in the Following Winter (26-27)
  25. WxWatcher007
    Lawns looking great across the area
  26. WxWatcher007
    Not really much of a signal yet, but if there’s a window for homebrew I think it’ll be early. Really hope I’m not hopping on a flight to chase a 45mph TS this season.
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