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Yeah, add 10 days of climo to yesterday's event and it looks a lot different from a sensible wx standpoint...that 1C mattered a lot for a good chunk of the storm. The pattern looks a bit colder anyway even if you adjust for climo. Not a good pattern to try and get a phased nuke....but these northern stream impulses can sometimes produce pretty nicely for us if we can get one of them to line up.

It was for yesterday, too.

Pictures of the GRAF? Bring it on lol

Really a nice couple inches would be nice. How much did you get? Are you still in West Hartford?

I always love how juiced and aggressive the GRAF is

My scotch pine is feeling it this morning. Second round last night added another 2.5”. Ended at 6” total.

Hes one of the kids that posts pessimistic shit this way when it inevitably happens, he can claim victory and also be mentally prepared for the sadness that people feel when they dont get what they actually want. And if we happen to get snow they wont acknowledge the incorrect posts, just move on and enjoy their snow they wanted while being doubly excited because they were pessimistic. Freud would have a field day in this forum.

Better climo, though...

Yeah some of these events we had didn't show up well on guidance all that well until D7 or so. It's the type of flow that probably isn't easy on guidance with so much energy and then dealing with a stout -NAO block. Hopefully one of these can produce.

That jet is going to be absolutely cranking It's not an awful look either around mid-month...window may be small but there is certainly some chance Getting anything to phase in that will be difficult but you could feasibly have a shot to get some PV interaction and before you know it, you have a good signal for cyclogenesis in our hood.

And the NAM is weird cause the wave itself is a bit more stretched but the vorticity behind it is a bit more N/S oriented so probably be somewhat close (maybe a bit worse if gun to my head) to 6z

What blew my mind with the Euro was how it ignored the mid layer heater. But what also never happens is a deep low passing way south and east not closing off 7h 8h and allowing warmth to blow so far inland. Great call by Scooter. Tip of the Yankee cap

Ended with 8.5". Decent first event.

I did NOT make 4+ analysis posts for the show hole to be squarely over Charlottesville imma need that to change to some rando place like 50 miles east. That said, seems like positive trends so I’ll take a look at them later

With or without gum on it?

Hey buddy

I noted that right before the storm started....the Euro was really going to get the W on the track, but it was just awful with the thermals. The whole system was pretty weird though. If you had told me before the storm started that the only information you would give me is that I would spend almost the entire storm below freezing, I would have at minimum expected snow to be overproducing in a very large swath of SNE.....but instead it was actually fairly underwhelming. Having low pretty decently SE with good ageo northeryl drain but yet we were ripping 925mb from the south relentlessly to the point of overperofming on warmth at that level....didn't have that on my bingo card. Typically I'd expect that type of track to have the warm nose way up at 750mb or something.

At 33, getting stretched more than 6z. Less press over NE but over the SW is flatter.

Another reason the HRRR works is because it brings the heavier precip in faster tomorrow night

Please don't Dec 89 us ugh

12z HRRR brings the smoke.

too much pacific energy keeping the pna ridge flattened and ruining an otherwise great pattern

The pattern seems like it's about to recycle what we've just gone through the past two or three weeks, it's not sure what exactly to focus on yet but there's lots of players on the field at least. Let's hope climo help some others out as we move forward. AND I need to stop typing and get some sleep! I'm not even sure if what I'm typing makes any sense

@bristolri_wx Looks like it's in "View Only" mode. Which boomer didn't close the sheet?

I went back starting at the 12z run on 11/27..and the Euro actually was pretty close with the track. However, thermals and storm intensity, especially between 11/28-11/30 were way off. Not sure why it would do well with the track and suck at everything else. Going to be a fun winter.