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Yeah man, this is good stuff. Brings back some nostalgia for 93-94.

Thanks for posting that. Regarding the PNA based on analyses I’ve done on snowfall for SE cities like RDU and ATL, a +PNA is the #1 most correlated index to snow in the SE. Since El Niño and +PNA are well correlated, having El Niño on average tends to be good relative to other ENSO for SE snow chances in general.

He's even got those miller, B's transferring off the carolina coast. This is a good man that knows how to look out for our best interest.

I think the map shows preexisting. The new line was going to connect the Algonquin and the Tennessee pipelines in PA and NY, follow the right of way of the Tennessee into western Mass, then run a new line across northern Mass into NH.

I know the Algonquin has been there for many years and is still used today . I used to ride dirt bikes along it back in the day.

Had a low of 54 here as well with a current high temp of 75.

Do you happen to know if the pipelines shown on that map are preexisting or were they part of the proposal you mentioned?

I haven't been active in this thread so apologize if it's already been shared before, but Dr. Jonathan Wall has a great project developed on his website at https://snow.wall.cloud/ You can dive really deep into and compare statistical significance of various teleconnections for a few different snowfall criteria (i.e. trace of snow at 10% or more of stations, 25% of stations measuring 0.1" or more snow, total event coverage or magnitude of snow totals, etc), and all of this broken down by NWS CWAs. But what's neat is you can also break it down further with these various teleconnections during El Nino, neutral, and La Nina. Here is an example between BOX and PHL CWAs in an El Nino winter for the PNA. The PHL CWA leans towards/favors +PNA for number of qualifying days with at least 25% of stations measuring snow. Meanwhile, BOX weakly leans towards/favors -PNA. Of course, the caveat is that there are some outliers in both situations and it's not consistent amongst all measurable snowfall days. In fact (and you can find this on the website) the most statistically significant teleconnection is a -EPO across both CWAs (most significant when selecting "all winters" and not just separating out ENSO): Here is another example but with QBO during El Nino just for shits and giggles. PHL actually leans towards +QBO for number of qualifying days with measurable snow at 25% of eligible stations (I'll have to look into the details of the data here, I wonder if there's some bias from big dogs that formed during +QBO/+ENSO seasons) and eastern BOX leans towards -QBO but western BOX leans towards +QBO. Again, very very important to note this is not gospel and there are outliers that prove snowstorms can happen in either phase of QBO. Either way, cool website and wanted to share. All of the details should be there on the site. From the site: "This is a descriptive historical phase comparison: each DJF winter is grouped by its mean index phase. Red favors positive phase, blue negative. The shading estimates the station-rate pattern between qualified stations."

I’m thinking 5-15 above, the upside potential is even higher the 2015. I do think do to the unprecedented level of energy that will be ejected into the subtropical jet there could be some surprises. As others have said it just takes the right timing. But overall the early winter warmth is likely historic if not record breaking. .

Historically those are not the greatest for snowfall in these parts, correct?

For anyone who happens to care, this is what I just posted elsewhere about my up to date general feelings about AGW/CC: 1) Anthropogenic Global Warming (human-caused CC) is real, has caused mean global temperature to warm ~2-3F, and is causing it to warm further. 2) Regarding CC reducing snowfall, that’s been true overall, which is intuitive. But for a specific location, the relationship between CC and change in avg snowfall is complex as it can actually cause heavier snowstorms in some cases since warmer air holds more moisture. This is especially the case where normals are well below 32F. 3) What’s debatable are four main things as I see it: a) Projections of rate of future warming because of realistic possibility of negative feedback loops, on which climate models likely don’t have a good handle. One example is “CO2 Fertilization Effect”: ^CO2 leads to ^photosynthesis, which leads to greener planet. Greener means ^CO2 absorption for globe. So, at some point increase in CO2 would likely decelerate and perhaps later completely stop. b) I’m not at all saying AGW/CC’s good. The main concern I have is rising sea level caused by combo of melting land based ice and expansion of oceans due to warming waters. Also, it likely leads to increased flooding events since warmer air holds more H2O. That includes wetter TCs. But CC isn’t all bad. Why? - It’s likely leading to larger crops overall due to a combo of CO2 Fert. Effect, longer growing seasons due to warming, and ability to grow crops at higher latitudes due to warming. That means larger food supply and at least in theory less hunger. -Cold in the past has killed many more than heat globally. Thus so far, CC has actually lead to reduced deaths from extreme temps. But admittedly assuming globe continues to warm, increased heat related deaths will likely overtake reduced cold related deaths. c) Storminess: CC may actually be reducing the avg storm strength. Why? It has caused much more rapid warming in Arctic than in tropics. That means reduced temp. difference from poles to tropics, which means slower jet stream, which means less energy available for storms to strengthen. Possibly related to this: typhoon activity has come down in recent decades. d) There’s a lot of controversy concerning the connection of CC to individual extreme events aka “CC attribution”. I feel it’s overdone at times or at least there’s often a rush to attribute extreme events to CC without enough time or evidence to soundly prove it. I’m not saying no extreme events have been made worse by it. Almost certainly extreme heatwaves have been made worse by it than would otherwise have been the case. Example: the March SW US heatwave. But here are some examples of a rush to judgement about the CC connection that needs much more time to study it: -Nepal disaster. Whereas CC probably was at least a minor cause since it has been leading to melting glaciers overall, was it actually a major cause as some have already claimed? If bedrock failure was indeed the major cause, was that in itself due to GW? This needs much more time to study as it is very complex. -Wildfire disasters: Whereas a warmer globe has likely helped lead to increased fires in some cases, that likely hasn’t been the case for many fires. Also note that global burnt acreage year to date has actually been during the last 2 years the lowest it has been as of this date since 2012!

I doubt that this December will be +10..thats a once in a lifetime warmth..+3-5 seems more reasonable and in December it can snow especially in New England away from the coast.

There was a proposal a few years back to build a larger pipeline from PA into New England that was working it's way through regulatory approvals until it was discovered that the proposed larger pipeline would be used in part to export gas from the Everett terminal, instead of import.

there’s quite a few ski resorts out west that are below 7k’ and probably won’t do too well either. The higher up ones will def cash in just like the Andes are in Chile.

Colorado should clean up this year after a disastrous year last yr-never saw it so bad there in over 30 years of going.

Our local hills had their best year ever last yr and the year prior was a runner up. Bad years are baked into their business model.

The board idiot's VP right here

Per my post from two days ago ITT that analyzed El Niño seasons with <4.3 ACE as of then, I’d be wary that despite the very slow start there likely will be some dangerous activity in some areas late Sept to mid Oct especially if I were a (near) coastal resident.

triggered^

It should be the sixth very strong el nino since 1950. I'm not sure why they didn't put 1972-73 as a VSE, considering it has 3 consecutive +2.0 trimonthlies.

https://www.iroquois.com/pipeline-services/pipeline-map/ Through CT

I can't complain too much about price. Comparing my bill to friends who have oil I'm usually at 50% of their bill and we keep the house fairly warm

Yeah pipelines here too...in fact not enough of them to keep supply and prices lower.