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51 here so far. On a morning like this I’d expect another 1-3 degrees will be lost in the next hour before recovering.

40 this morning.

Nearly all the mesonet stations have reached the 40s. 47.6 IMBY

This cooling actually started before 15 days ago. Now we watch, either the warm blob comes back by December (2013), or Paul Roundy’s opinion that a classic cold horseshoe develops by winter comes to fruition

56 here

It also looks like some phase 5 forcing on the CANSIPS anomaly maps. But yea, 5-6-7 look dominant verbatim

As always thanks Roger. It is nice to see as a consensus we do pretty well!

Don't be thinking i'm not always rooting for the anomaly or just to be dead wrong because I sure as hell hope I am. I will remain positive and will be rooting for the storms but deep down inside my true feelings will be haunting me. That said, here's a little Ai overview on this winter's solar cycle. I'm not complaining. The 2025–2026 winter is occurring during the Solar Cycle 25 peak, which is expected to last between November 2024 and March 2026. This period of high solar activity is the most intense of the cycle, leading to more frequent and powerful solar storms and increased aurora activity. While the solar maximum influences Earth's atmosphere by heating it and potentially disrupting satellites and power grids, the primary drivers of the winter weather are changing atmospheric conditions, particularly the fading of La Niña and transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions.

Just did a brief search on the solar phase in 1963 and I wasn't surprised to find this. During the winter of 1963, the Sun was in the declining phase of Solar Cycle 19, heading toward a period of minimal activity. Solar Cycle 19 is notable for having the highest sunspot number ever recorded at its peak, but by 1963, sunspot and flare activity had significantly decreased. We missed out last solar minimum as we sometimes do, but the long cold winters, we all love and miss could and will return any year.But as i've stated year after year, i'm a huge believer that the minimum time frame is our best bet.

What I'm saying is I would much prefer to take my chances with dry and cold and gamble on a overlapping mid to late cold season, active Atlantic or some angry gorillas. I still think we have a few years of descending solar untill we have a chance at a wall to wall banger.

If it's not going to rain, then I would prefer we get into December dry and, with some luck, cool . Snce we made it to this point without much rain, I personally don't want to see to much wet and/or cold around here the next 10 to 12 weeks. If we can get a cold winter, let's not forget we can have well below normal precipitation and still be well above normal in snow accumulation.

Thought I would provide a look at the still green Mount Wantastiquet, from this morning. BTW, I may have scored a good deal on a nice apartment downtown. I'll keep my location where I have been for fifteen years. At least until I change my permanent mailing address...ha.

This article is pretty consistent with my thinking on how to model winter precipitation patterns in the US. It's strongly supportive of a wetter winter nationally than last year, despite what the models show. https://opensnow.com/news/post/how-atlantic-ocean-temps-could-impact-la-nina-2024-2025-winter-forecast Recent seasons on the Canadian have been depicted in an MJO pattern of 4-5 for winter. The models are showing 6-7 for this winter. That's very different from recent winters, look at the depicted east African precip pattern at the equator. Look at Brazil shown wet v dry in phase five. It's not 5 like in recent years. It looks like 6-7 to me, not perfect but better than the others. We had 4-5-6 for precip nationally last winter, but made drier by the Atlantic features. Again - this match holds up for a lot of my methods, although it isn't quite what I expect. But it did have 106 ACE as an example which still feels about right.

Thanks everyone, I will get a table of forecasts up as soon as possible ... ... meanwhile, this is the final report on the SEASONAL MAX contest. Winner is RJay, congrats. Final scoring for Seasonal Max contest 2025 TABLE of ERRORS _ _ _ _ errors in italics are forecasts lower than eventual result which is above the table (actual) _________________ 99 __ 99 _102 ___ 95 _100 _101 ___100 _118 _ 94 FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS _ ORD_ATL_IAH _ DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTAL RJay _____________________01 _ 02 _ 03 ____ 03 _ 00 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 17 DonSutherland1 _________ 01 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 03 _ 02 _ 03 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 ______ 19 wxallannj ________________ 01 _ 03 _ 07 ____ 00 _ 02 _ 00 ___ 04 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 19 wxdude64 _______________01 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 04 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 21 ___ Consensus __________02 _ 01 _ 04 ____05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 21 hudsonvalley21 __________02 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 00 ___ 00 _ 05 _ 03 _____ 22 Tom _____________________02 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 07 _ 03 _ 04 ___ 01 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 23 so_whats_happening ____02 _ 02 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 01 _____ 24 Scotty Lightning ________ 04 _ 01 _ 04 ____ 06 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 00 _ 03 _ 02 _____ 28 Roger Smith _____________03 _ 01 _ 02 ____ 06 _ 02 _ 06 ____07 _ 02 _ 05 _____ 34 _____________________________________ (actual forecasts) FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning ________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 101 _ 103 _ 106 ___ 100 _ 121 __ 92 Roger Smith _____________ 102 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 107 ____107 _ 120 __ 99 Tom _____________________ 101 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 102 _ 103 _ 105 ___ 101 _ 118 __ 96 hudsonvalley21 _________ 101 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 123 __ 97 so_whats_happening ____ 101 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 100 __ 99 _ 105 ___104 _ 118 __ 93 ___ Consensus __________101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95 wxdude64 ______________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 _____99 _ 101 _ 106 ___ 104 _ 118 __ 96 DonSutherland1 _________ 100 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 98 __ 98 _ 104 ___ 102 _ 117 __ 95 RJay _____________________100 __ 97 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95 wxallannj _________________98 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 95 __ 98 _ 101 ___ 104 _ 119 __ 93

I agree with warlock on this one. I don't know why NWS is going so low for that area. It will likely be higher than low 70s with the southwest winds.

the winds calmed down this afternoon

Longer modeled pattern projects pretty dry...

Radiational cooling a bit meh tonight so plants should be fine in most of W MA. I'm looking forward to the warm, dry weekend!

Weird. Nws going with 77-78 up here

Looks like a landfall is imminent or close to it.

Into the 30s before 10pm… it is October after all. Radiators mounting up as it’s 38F at 750ft and 46F above 1,200ft.

Won’t get cold here though with this wind off the water.

Wind really picked up. Another NE wind push of cold. Modeled too.

Ill screenshot for you from a real weather platform. Use sunscreen, the sun is still strong. Hope for a temp bust for you to enjoy more.

Highs PHL: 74 EWR: 73 New Brnswck: 72 TEB: 71 TTN: 71 JFK: 70 ISP: 70 LGA: 70 ACY: 70 BLM: 69 NYC: 69