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These models have been laughably bad. I've noticed the temp on Monday climbing up a degree or two literally every single day for days now.

Yeah h5 heights are generally + to ++ throughout that 18z run. phantom stalling TC building lower heights along the SE Coast, so that may be some of it...right or not

Good

Is there a "magic" PDO range that we want for sustained cold and/or snow during an El Nino winter? Do we even have a large enough sample size for any statistical significance?

Promising squall line collapsed and dissipated over the western metro. Barely wet the sidewalk here.

Big differences between Winter 15-16 and 23-24, probably contributed to something along the lines of the PDO (15-16 was >+1, 23-24 was <-1).

The two inch soil values have crashed statewide. We really need another 1"-2" of rain in the next week.

We've worked hard the past decade to let our lawn grow longer, end bad chemical usage, and increase native plants to boost our lightning bugs.

Man could you imagine if we got a PDO in the +0.5 - +1.0 range?

Highs: PHL: 90 EWR: 89 BLM: 89 New Brnswck: 89 ACY: 88 TEB: 87 NYC: 86 TTN: 86 LGA: 86 JFK: 85 ISP: 82

There has been much less of them for the last few years, like a fraction! In 2013 when I was in Sedona, AZ there must have been 300+, the sky looked like hell.

Monday will no longer be a cool down. Humid and mid 80s.

Stms lurking around my area. Would be nice if one hit here.

Pretty damn warm GFS run at 500

I figured it would be about chemtrails.

WB 18Z AI EPS similar look to the GEFS.

Finally saw the first lightning bug of the season! I’m sitting on the patio with a whiskey(s) and a few flying around, so I expect they’ll be out in force with a little heat this weekend. Retired life is good

WB 18Z GEFS. Next 7 days overall look pretty dry. Third week of June has potential to be wetter.

Well, maybe you’ll have luck with that -narrowing it down as you say. But I kind of look at it this way… Triggers only trigger if there’s an underlying vulnerability put in place. Pretty sure when I removed the processed sugars and processed carbs. I removed the underlying vulnerability. So now those so-called triggers go with it. I hear you about people not truly understanding it though… I cringe whenever I hear somebody say “oh man; I have such a migraine” I’m like no you don’t

I'll take it. June is important for crop formation. Even the afternoon storms and showers would at least keep things from sliding further into drought.

87 was the high here today.

Only people that suffer with these can relate . Everyone else just doesn’t understand it. These are life altering , dehabilitating conditions. I can’t tell you how much it has affected holidays, work , just life in general . You live in fear of when one will hit. I’m glad you were able to narrow it down to your triggers . I would estimate 80% of mine have occurred in spring or fall into early winter. Being into weather , I did a tremendous amount of research and stumbled upon the baro pressure cause. Where you get rapid pressure rises /falls with those seasonal fropas with wind . It’s amazing how many happened in those cases it triggers the blood vessel expansion in the brain

And by the way, if you absolutely have to have something sugary, you can mix Allulose, which is organic and comes from plants. It doesn’t actually add any sugar to your system … mix with 5% by volume of Stevia, also organic from , and the combination of those two mimic sugar almost identically with none of the glycemic impact on your bloodstream. So I don’t really miss sugar in that sense