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don't. know what's gonna happen but i do know sleet is a persistent little mother, and often rears its head well before we want. that said, there is disagreement even among the pros how much of this will happen and when. so let's just let this one ride and hope we can get some good season's greetings photos for next year's card....got a daughter commuting to somerset in her 2009 impala, her first time working with snow on the way; hope she can leave work early before 287 is a mess; retired now, and worry about loved ones.....be safe all, and let's hope for some wintry wonderland photo ops. we get enough winters without them....

In an overrunning driven storm like this? Always. I’m thinking it’s less than 50-50 that my area goes to sleet but wouldn’t shock me if it happened. NAM may be too warm in the mid levels but I’m confident it’s closer to right than the colder models.

God, with the way things have gone this decade, this will feel like a KU. Congrats you princes of New England!

Euro is not as generous

There is no such thing as a consistent top performer. Most would consider the ECMWF and GFS as leading the pack, but neither one is a consistent winner.

Are you concerned for the inevitable “warm nose” that always seems to catch meteorologists off guard?

Newest HRRR looks nice to me, heaviest banding right through nyc metro.

Glad to share the wealth it’s more fun this way

I like your amounts although I would just go 4-8 inches.

This storm will be the test for whether they can finally discontinue the NAM. The NAM was the only model which could see the warm nose at 850 mb to 750 mb. None of the other models were very good at this. The NAM has sleet mixing in around EWR-NYC-LGA-JFK. But keeps it all snow from Suffolk NW back into SW CT and interior SE NY. So out of respect for the NAM, I will go 3-5” around EWR-NYC-LGA-JFK and 5-8” Northern Nassau to Suffolk.

20 here.

17 degrees

Agree Nam is still an outlier

Depends on one's view of low impact. For me, as a tractor trailer driver pulling a bulk liquid tanker, a sleet and ice mess isn't quite low impact. Now, since you're a Penndot guy, do you see the Tier 3 restrictions holding, or do you think they might be downgraded? As of right now, legally, I should be off the roads by 2pm, loaded or empty. That to me is a blessing as it gives me leverage to park the truck without (hopefully) any repercussions from my employer as it'll technically be illegal for me to be out on the highway. I may be an experienced, professional driver, but I really don't want to play in sleet and ice in the mountainous region in which I run.

23 here

Such an odd track diving southeast, enjoy the snow guys! At 21F now, stinks with solid cold in place I won’t be able to get more out of this - but yeah, odd track and it’s expanded north. Nice storm though!

24F DP10 NE wind@10mph with P Cloudy skies. Looks like a low impact storm out this way still going with 1-3" snow/sleet, and maybe .10" of freezing rain looks to be over well before daybreak tomorrow. Then we wait for the rain and mild temps Sunday night into Monday.

6 am. 10 hours ETA. Let's do this. I'm pumped.

Definitely like we are losing the LBNW look, more expansive qpf.

18/8 bone chilling cold. Up in the air on what to expect here. Could be 4-8”, 5-9” I’ll say right around 7” is my bet.

14/5 expecting 8-10” here

3-6pm

23 degrees in Kearny with a crystal clear night sky. Manhattan skyline looks incredible all lit up.

What time we looking at first flakes around nyc?

Honestly who cares what they have though? All they do is use the HREF. As that increases today , so will they