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  2. Ravens94
    The AI models are all trending south the last 4 runs. This is going to be a big test for them.
  3. Jebman
    This system will accrete a lot of ice in ATL. I like where I am for this. Just cold and windy.
  4. SnowDawg
    The biggest worry at this point has to be how far amped and north can this get? That HP will help, but it is beginning to retreat especially with the later timing. That phase of the Baja low out west can continue to bring this north some in my opinion. The further west it phases the more it’s going to pump the SE ridge and wanna steer the low track further inland. I would only feel super confident in far Northern NC and Virginia at this point.
  5. SoCoWx
    It would certainly be easier to shovel. Luckily, for now at least, that model (the Canadian) seems to be on an island by itself showing a near perfect phase that makes the storm so amped it pulls hard north and west and brings the mixing and freezing rain much further into the Commonwealth. .
  6. wasnow215
    0z Euro is over a foot everywhere haha!! Let's do this!
  7. SoCoWx
    Figures the folks to our north are talking about the Canadian a lot, given it seems to pull the storm so far north that the heaviest snows are around DC, with Richmond getting several inches of sleet. I guess we’ll see, huh? .
  8. Radtechwxman
    Euro keeps inching this north. 0z euro brings accumulating snow well north into north central IL. Several inches. Not sure I buy it with strength of high nearby and fetch of cold dry ne flow
  9. Coach McGuirk
    It has been a while. I remember this storm. My outdoor thermometer was like 32. 4 the entire event. Just 2-3 miles west was a bad freezing rain storm on the tree limbs in York County, VA. A look back at the 1998 Christmas Ice Storm that devastated Central Virginia | WRIC ABC 8News
  10. Ruin
    duration wise how long? I thought it was going to start some point sun or is it now a monday time frame?
  11. John1122
    The EPS is loaded for the forum as well with a mean of 5 to 9 inches across the forum. Due to the nature of ensembles, they will usually be lighter and lower qpf than op models, as invariably some ensembles will be light or even blanks.
  12. Stx_Thunder
    2025 is over folks. I had already started a 2026 thread for that exact reason (back on New Years Day) here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62492-texas-2026-discussionobservations/ So I don't know why posts are still being made in here. And I've sent a request to lock this 2025 thread (rather than just delete it).
  13. stormdragonwx
    Yeah its definitely a setup we haven't really seen in quite some time with several potentially convective waves of winter precip. We will have to see if the pattern holds as we get closer. Still got 4 days. Trying to temper my expectations. lol and I don't want this morphing into a big ice storm. We are in peak climatology for those.
  14. Coach McGuirk
    I want to believe.
  15. WxWatcher007
    Yeah it looks like an outgrowth of the original system sliding off the coast. An outlier but interesting. The South better get ready though. They have an HECS on the way.
  16. Today
  17. SnowDawg
    Yep depth of the cold is the key here. There will no doubt be a warm nose, but experience says the heart of the wedge will almost always verify with more SN/IP. Alluding to that, one thing that stuck out to me on that Euro was the wedge signature starting to show up even at 850mbar. That is deep cold. As a result the sn/ip line held south for longer than earlier runs despite being more amped. Not to mention the potential for dynamic cooling fighting against the warm nose with such high rates possible.
  18. Weather Will
    WB 0Z ensembles: GFS, Can., EURO AI, and EPS GN!
  19. zbrown89 started following 1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread and January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm
  20. chris624wx
    Yeah, hoping for sleet for y'all if it isn't going to be snow!
  21. John1122
    Behind the system at 12z vs 0z.
  22. Scottie16
    .
  23. JoshM
    Dec. 2002 was like that here. We got the parfait... Snow, then sleet, then the 0.75" of ZR.
  24. HWY316wx
    Yep. We had a good one in 2000, but it wasn't this big. I am just praying it all turns to sleet at this point. I don't want any part of that mess.
  25. Scottie16
    Euro just absorbs the Baja. Weird to see that big of a jump. .
  26. chris624wx
    Live in Norfolk, VA, now but I grew up in NE GA. Can't remember an ice storm looking like this since maybe the early to mid 2000s? I remember one where you could just hear tree limbs snapping continuously all through the night. No power, of course. Thank god we had a wood stove!
  27. Rjay
  28. John1122
    Not sure what happens that Euro run. It handles the cold bizarrely. At 12z the temperatures after the system passed were in the low 10s or colder Monday morning. Now they are in the lower 30s across eastern Tennessee. It's strange.
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