All Activity

Based on my own look just now at the comparison of anomalies in the 4 Nino regions, I have only 4 clearcut Modoki El Niño events since 1950: 1. 1968-9: Month……..1+2……3……3.4……4 Nov………-0.1……+0.1….+0.5…+0.4 Dec………+0.2….+0.4….+0.7….+0.6 Jan………-0.2……+0.5…..+1.0….+0.9 Feb……..-0.8…….+0.3…..+1.1…….+1.1 Mar……..+0.3……+0.2……+0.5.…+0.6 2. 1977-8: not as Modoki as 68-9 Month……..1+2……3……3.4……4 Nov……….-0.5…..+0.2….+0.5…+0.3 Dec……….-0.6…..+0.3….+0.7….+0.4 Jan……….-0.4…..+0.1…..+0.6…..+0.4 Feb……….-0.4…...0.0……+0.3…..+0.2 Mar……….-1.2……-0.5…..-0.2…..-0.1 3. 2004-5: the most Modoki Month……..1+2……3……3.4……4 Nov……...+0.7…..+0.6…+0.7….+0.8 Dec……..+0.4……+0.7….+0.7….+0.9 Jan……...0.0……..+0.3…..+0.7….+0.9 Feb……..-0.9…….-0.1…….+0.4…..+0.7 Mar……..-1.5…….-0.1…….+0.5……+0.6 4. 2014-5: 2nd most Modoki Month……..1+2……3……3.4……4 Nov……….+0.8….+0.8…+0.8…+0.7 Dec………+0.4….+0.7…+0.7….+0.8 Jan………-0.2…..+0.4…+0.5….+0.8 Feb……..-0.5…..+0.1….+0.4….+0.9 Mar…….+0.1…..+0.1….+0.5…..+0.9 So, based on the above, the most Modoki El Niño events since 1950 were (starting from strongest): 1. 2004-5 2. 2014-5 3. 1968-9 4. 1977-8 Based on this, it appears to me that regarding wintry precip in El Niño seasons, the SE (based on ATL and RDU) seems to do somewhat better with E based than W based. If I’m not mistaken, the NE tends to do better with the opposite, W based over E based. Interesting! https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

I'm not crazy about that ELI ....they state that it does a pretty poor job of identifying Modoki events and it absolutely does....it has 2023 similar to 2009 and 2004. It lost me right there. Two issues...first of all, the 165-170E Modoki range is too restrictive, which is likely why Modoki events are underrepresented in the data set. Secondly, it fails to distinguish the MC forcing of 2023 from Modoki forcing, which makes it no better than VP and OLR. I still like using the RONI for that distinction.

Good chance it is going to be well up in the 90's around here and maybe 100 again at some point later next week

Indeed! Yeah, Chuck, it’s confusing because when I searched for it, I first found the new FB post, dated 7/2/26. At first it looked on the surface like a new record/first time over 100 in Arctic Circle based on the 1st 2 paragraphs. But then the 3rd paragraph said that on June 20, 2020, it hit 38C/100.4F. Then I was curious to see the comments below. The first one incorrectly said that was Antarctica lol. Then the 2nd comment said that it was 6 years ago and was critical of the story being posted now for no good reason other than to confuse.

How do you equate that?

Last summer was as frontloaded as you can get temperaturewise. The highest temperature was reached in June, and the summer was pretty much over on July 31.

There have been a few of these massive downpours over Lake Erie during the summer months over the last several summers. It happens when the lake water is in the upper 70s/lower 80s and we get slow moving convection over the lake (usually at night). Put-In-Bay got 8-10” of rain and flooded one night in August 2023, and there have been a couple other times where I remember radar estimates of 10”+ over the open lake. This event was very high end and affected an island directly. There was significant flooding from 4-7” of rain (after 1-3” the day before) along the western Lake Erie shoreline on Monday from continued lake enhanced thunderstorms.

Oh, I thought it was recent. My mistake. Facebook things posted out of context. I assumed the record cold >80N was creating a ridge underneath. The cold this year up there is certainly impressive!

Total to end the day 3.86” Honestly cannot remember the last time I have gotten that kind of amount. That first storm thundered for close to an hour. It caused a lot of flooding all over Frederick. Got word that the local farm where I get my CSA and plants they had about 5” of standing water on the grounds and in the green houses.

“In 2020, the town of Verkhoyansk, Russia, reached a temperature of 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit, the highest temperature ever recorded in the Arctic Circle.” https://www.upi.com/amp/Top_News/2026/06/20/On-This-Day-Arctic-Circle-reaches-record-setting-100-degrees/2481781913298/

I just saw this Apparently it was verified by the WMO

Imby Columbia 0.35” today. 3+” from rain each day July 4-9.

Ended up with 1.77" on the day. 5.52" for the first 9 days of the month.

Hey Chuck, Do you have a link? The only thing I saw was a story from just a few days ago but it said that on 6/20/20 it hit 100.4F at Verkhoyansk, Russia (Siberia): https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1023286790456624&id=100083259374691

Rainy couple days in Pasadena: 7/4: 1.25 7/5: 1.29 7/6: 0.26 7/7: 0.29 7/8: 0.07 7/9: 0.46 Total: 3.63

Today's Highs: LGA: 89 EWR: 86 ACY: 86 TEB: 85 New Brnswck: 84 BLM: 83 JFK: 82 ISP: 82 NYC: 82 PHL: 81 TTN: 81

Did you see that it just hit 100 degrees in the Arctic circle for the first time ever, on the Russia side.

Nope, cold all the way my friend!

Elias.. gaslighting fans

I remember him for sure. He had some great posts and observations. I wish I had went to his get together but that was my early years here on the site. Eff cancer! Took my mom at the age of 56. Throat cancer is very difficult.

The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly. Its an epic Italian spaghetti western. Currently it represents the vibe here in the eastern shore desert.

July 8th mean 80N+ temp. (C) per DMI: 2026: 273.1 (barely below freezing and lowest on record (to 1958)) 2025: 274.1 2024: 274.5 2023: 274.2 2022: 273.8 2021: 273.9 2020: 274.3 2019: 274.3 https://download.dmi.dk/pub/plus80N_temperatureindex/

Definitely some unsettled wx late next week - weekend? Hopefully some much needed severe. And it doesn't hold off until beyond

Got some bourbon rn Not feeling too bad

Because of Elias/Sig philosophy. Their overuse of analytics, and not enough focus on fundamentals and actually having a winning mindset throughout the organization (major and minors) is a big problem. The fact that Cal has stepped in and become more involved in development is another clue that the problem runs deeper than the players. See, it's become readily apparent how mentally messed up these players are. They are clearly thinking way too much...and I wonder if they are being choked by the analytics. Adley said something a couple months ago about his improvement this year. He said "Simple thoughts at the plate". Where did the complication come from? Holliday's improvements (before the injury--he's pretty much been in spring training mode up until now) came from his dad. The young players clearly had the talent coming up through the minors; there is no way they all simply fail in the same manner unless there is a deeper problem. See, Elias may be all numbers and computers when it comes to the talent he has brought up--and these players simply don't know how to win. We have seen their talent: we see the flashes of it--but of course it's inconsistent. But this inconsistency is not just one player; it's the whole team. How does an entire team, both younger players and veterans, fail in the exact same way 2.5 years in a row? How is the defense of the entire team this awful? How is this out third set of hitting coaches in 4 years, and a new manager, yet the same problem? You have to look at the top. They could be micromanaging things into oblivion. Elias has been pretty good at spotting talent--particularly the bats. But what if...he simply relies on the analytics and kinda just leaves them out there...and did not instill a culture of knowing how to win? That flawed approach would translate into coaches and other personel having all the analytics in the world but no fundamentals, no "this is how you need to play to win". The "Oriole Way" has been missing for several years.