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At this lead time, August looked warmer than normal and the number of lows in the 50s that we've seen was almost inconceivable. There's no guarantee that the temperature will fall into the 40s next month, but even a short but sharp push of cold air that wouldn't necessarily show up in the weeklies, can't be ruled out during the second half of the month. Weekly forecasts lose skill beyond two weeks. Daily forecasts are unreliable beyond even 7-10 days. It would be interesting to examine how the daily numbers for September fare vs. climatology.

The coolest air mass so far this season will move into the region tonight. As a result, this weekend will see low temperatures fall into the 50s in New York City with some 40s in the colder suburbs. Highs will generally reach the middle and upper 70s. Generally cool and dry conditions will persist into next week. A system could bring at least some rain during or after the middle of next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around August 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was +19.60 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.815 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.6° (2.5° below normal). That would make August 2005 the coolest August since 2000. Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Finally I can come out of the cave and do some painting and yard work. Its been just miserable since July

Shit bout to go down.

Accu weather long range is more pessimistic, the lowest September temperature is 55 degrees., it holds off the first low in the 40’s until October 12th and the first low in the upper 30’s until November 11th. That’s as of today’s long range. Stay well, as always ….

It began in 2015-2016 with the super El Niño....mid Atlantic just lucked out with the KU, NE did not.

The first 40% of September likely to be cool overall

The pattern really started in 2016-17. That was the year places like Baltimore and DC had like 3 inches of snow. That started their record low 7-year stretch, which lasted until 2022-23. The last two winters, Baltimore and DC got some snow, and those places bounced of those lows. I wonder if the same thing does happen to NYC and Boston.

0.81” here MTD Dew-gust fail

Up to .47”. Would like some more but this was appreciated.

swing and a miss for most of us today

lock it in!

In terms of 50" or more seasonal snowfall at New York City, one would typically need a winter colder than last winter was in order to have a reasonable shot. I looked at NYC (Central Park) 50" or above winters and winters from a larger set of sites from Washington, DC to Bridgeport. Only a single winter had a mean temperature at or above last winter's figure (Winter 2009-10 in Washington, DC). Below is the distribution of winters with 50" or more season,al snowfall and mean winter temperatures, along with the coldest and warmest such winters.

Round 3 incoming. Around around 0.80” so far. We drink.

Just got home, got .92” so we will take that! My lawn might bounce back

The misses today were very strategic. It took a certain set of hands to be able to control it with such precision.

This is what rain looks like Brian.

The north fork getting lit up good on radar!

Impressive temp drop from the rain. 74 down to 60.

Typical

The east end getting slammed of course. They’re like the South Jersey of Long Island, it doesn’t make meteorological sense to me. It’s so dry here my Rosemary is wilting.

Dumping

In it

Storms training and backbuilding all around, but only managed 4 minutes of moderate to heavy rain here.

Much needed drink. 0.74" Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk