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Once past the 2 day weekend chill down, ridging builds east, some onshore component but shoudl see a few warm days on the 1019 - 10/30 period:

2026 LAST LOW TEMPERATURE THRESHOLDS 49°F and lower EWR: Oct 9 - 47°F NYC: Oct 6 - 48°F LGA: May 12 - 48°F JFK: Oct 7 - 44°F 39°F and lower EWR: Apr 21 - 35°F NYC: Apr 21 - 34°F LGA: Apr 21 - 37°F JFK: Apr 21 - 34°F 29°F and lower EWR: Apr 8 - 29°F NYC: Mar 18 - 25°F LGA: Mar 18 - 26°F JFK: Mar 29 - 29°F

Yup..we freeze.

false statement the true drivers of increased energy and electricity costs are increasing costs to maintain and expand an aging grid, the increasing price for fossil fuels, the increase in energy demand, and a general utility regulatory structure that prioritizes investment in massive power plants that have long capital pay-back periods

Records: Highs: EWR: 89 (1954) NYC: 87 (1954) LGA: 86 (1995) JFK: 79 (1995) Lows; EWR: 34 (2012) NYC: 34 (1875) LGA: 39 (1988) JFK: 37 (2012) Historical: 1820: Snowstorm at Ft. Snelling, MN dumps 11 inches. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1846 - A great hurricane tracked across Cuba, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia and Pennsylvania. The hurricane inflicted major damage along its entire path, which was similar to the path of Hurricane Hazel 108 years later. The hurricane caused great damage at Key West FL, and at Philadelphia PA it was the most destructive storm in thirty years. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1876: New York City recorded its earliest 32° reading with a half inch of snow. Snow fell from Virginia to New England with 3.5 inches reported at Fall River, MA. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1893: At Richmond, winds became a "perfect gale" as rain fell in torrents. Homes were partially unroofed, and trees fell in the capital squares. Between Richmond and Danville, a passenger train struck a fallen tree while a freight train struck another tree. Many lines fell across Petersburg. Dwellings in town rocked to the wind gusts. Roanoke watched as their river rose to levels unseen since 1853. Washouts occurred along the Norfolk & Western railroad, delaying traffic from twelve to fourteen hours. The town of Elliston was submerged by the Roanoke river, sweeping away houses. Alexandria saw its wharves crumble before the high waters ($25,000). The James river eclipsed the level attained during the Johnstown Flood of 1889 by twelve inches. Bladensburg saw winds level fences and partially unroof homes. In Washington, DC, the Calvary Baptist church's side wall blew down ($3000). Associate justice of the Supreme Court Henry B. Brown was seriously injured when a plate glass window shattered at his new home at the northwest corner of 16th street and Riggs at 7:30 p.m.. Trees and their limbs were strewn throughout the city. Rainfall began in the morning and increased throughout the afternoon. Sewers were flooded by this downpour. By 6 p.m., gale force winds swept through the Federal City. Damage to police and fire wires was "greater than ever before been experienced. " Waters on the Potomac rose six feet above the high tide, which was three feet below the high water mark. The Anacostia bridge became submerged. (Ref. for Fall Storm of Oct. 13th - 14th) 1960: Large hail nearly covered the ground across a large part of central Jackson County, in southwest Oklahoma. Hail up to the size of baseballs, with some chunks shaped like saucers, destroyed the roofs of most businesses and homes in Olustee. Large hail also pounded the Stillwater area the same evening. Hail up to 4 inches in diameter caused damage in and around the city, including damage to roofs, windows, and copper trim at Oklahoma State University. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) 1982: Denver experiences a wet, early-season snow. Up to 6 inches fell in the Foothills. Extensive power outages resulted as tree limbs broke under the weight of the snow. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1983: Severe weather in Falls Church, VA, produced 2-3 tornadoes and caused $1 million in damages. 1986 - Four tornadoes struck southeastern Virginia late in the night causing three million dollars damage. Tornadoes at Falls Church VA caused a million dollars damage. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders) 1987 - Fifteen cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Record lows included 34 degrees at Meridian MS, 28 degrees at Paducah KY, and 26 degrees at Beckley WV. Another surge of arctic air entered the north central U.S. bringing snow to parts of Wyoming and Colorado. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A total of forty-three cities in the eastern U.S. and the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins WV and Marquette MI where the mercury dipped to 18 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Sixteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 80s and low 90s from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast. Evansville IND and North Platte NE reported record highs of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1990: The combined remnants of Tropical Storms Klaus and Marco dumped extremely heavy rainfall over New England. More than 6 inches of rain fell in parts of Connecticut. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1994: A slow moving low pressure area dumped excessive rains over coastal Georgia. Hunter was drenched with 14.26 inches in 24 hours while Savannah checked in with 8.80 inches. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 2006: On the 12th and 13th in a historic lake effect snow left 22.6 inches of snow in Buffalo, New York. With trees in full leaf much damage occurred; estimates of $200 million dollars damage. Thunder occurred for approximately 12 hours with the storm, and 400,000 customers without power some for two weeks. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA) (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2012 Accord Pub. 2011, USA) 2011: Central and eastern Virginia hit by three tornadoes today. The tornado that hit New Kent County on Thursday carried winds estimated at 95 mph, the National Weather Service said today. The twister struck about 4:50 p.m. in the Woodhaven Shores neighborhood in southwestern New Kent, officials said. Its path was about 200 yards wide. The tornado was an EF1 -- the next-to-weakest rating for tornadoes. Weather service officials judged the tornado's characteristics by visiting the site today. Earlier today, the weather service said three confirmed tornadoes struck Virginia Thursday the 13th of October. The tornadoes hit western Louisa County between 3:30 and 3:45 p.m., western New Kent County just before 5 p.m. and southeastern Prince William County about 5:30 p.m. (Ref. Richmond Times Published by Rex Springston on October 14, 2011) A late season tornado event occurred on October 13th. An EF1 tornado went across a portion of New Kent County and another did EF1 damage in Louisa County at Sylvania Plantation, a historic home built in 1746. (Ref.NWS Late Season Tornadoes Louisa County and New Kent County)

68 / 60 upper 60s to mid 70s in the warmest spots, peak warmup tomorrow with some low 80s in the warmest areas and perhaps the warmest till next year. Cooler Thu - Fri then a chill frost / freeze inland burbs Sat - Sun before moderation to and warmer overall 10/19 - beyond as ridging come east.

Not 1 seasonal at any time as far as I can recall had anything but a solid AN for December. The change, if it's coming, would be/start sometime in January.

Thanks for that info PF – it’s really interesting to get the perspective from someone who’s been living the experience. We’ve certainly heard about the short-term rental issues but had no idea how much it had changed things in your immediate part of the village!

Looks like its snowing at the higher elevations up here right now, Pretty chilly here too with -RN, 39/38°F.

It’s not a matter of “if” because it’s a certainty. Also that favors E US warmth in December as @snowman19has emphasized. Dec of 2015, 2006, 1987, 1982, and 1957 were all mild in the E US (other than 1957 being NN in the SE).

One of the SC tornadoes (Barnwell) has been upgraded to an EF-2: https://x.com/Gio_wx/status/2109995279244026310

Yeah it's pretty comical

The tornado outbreak across the Carolinas was unusual not just for a TC-associated outbreak, but for the time of year: https://x.com/GMengel/status/2109798674465198505

Presently the Green Mountain spine, Franconia Notch, and the Presidentials are covered. I do plan to expand to include the ADK high peaks region however

This weather sucks I shouldn't be sweating on October 13.

Thanks! I just got on my PC and can see the updating table. For whatever reason, when I do it on my phone, it requires a download of the data. I don’t get why they can’t have it more accessible like for the PSL link. Anyway, this NOAA 30 mb update for Mar 26+ is following the general pattern of the ATMOS Hub values along with the sometimes slightly faster transition to positive phase in addition to sig. higher amp on both ends as I mentioned. So this essentially confirms what ATMOS Hub showed us. Therefore due to the easier access to the ATMOS Hub data on my cell, I’m probably going to use ATMOS Hub at least as often as NOAA’s now harder to see on cellphone data. Plus I like ATMOS’ excellent graphic showing the entire atmosphere and how it progresses with the QBO cycle possibly even during mid month thus giving us a little bit of heads up that the monthly tables don’t show: CPC vs ATMOS (rounded) Mar -17 vs -31 Apr -9 vs -7 May -2 vs +6 June +4 vs +8 July +9 vs +13 Aug +11 vs +12 Sep +13 vs +18

I have been out of town for the last week....I am sorry to hear this, Carver...my condolences to you and your family.

Yeah it's always been November but I kinda expected more of a ramp up. Maybe that was a false expectation

Maybe a SYR special today? Sucks instability on Friday will be limited because those are some insane dynamics and a vigorous shortwave approaching. Maybe get a risk for some strong storms along the coast where dews could sneak into the lower 60s.

Thanks 1. It being the driest time of year means it isn’t all that unusual. 2. Oct is typically too early for the Nino STJ moisture as that usually doesn’t get going til close to Nov or often not til Nov, itself. That’s what the Euro Werklies are suggesting.

come to think about it ... sudden potent short duration events have also been increasing in frequency every time Gretta sneezes so heh

Friday could be interesting. Wind fields are strong. It's not out of the question there could be some strong winds if tstms form. Instability overall is lacking, but it is a dynamic system. The CAA winds Saturday diminished some. Still could be 40 to maybe near 50mph.

i'm always a little suss about those fast moving cold slicing waves like that. often enough they prove to have been over amplified. but like Scott just noted ... the ambient polar boundary appears to be gradient saturated so maybe this time we'll yo-yo 36 deg spanning 30 hours.

So Philly 0 to 3 but we get 24+?