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you realize you just doomed not only this year, but probably the next 6 of them due to your declaration - nice goin'

It's because unfortunately there are some who think that if they're posting something like that, they must know something... My best friend does this every year "but he sounds like he knows what he's talking about" LOL

Second summer really digging in its heels over the upper Midwest, with a number of record highs across the region.

It's still far out but the GFS calls for cooler weather again starting end of next week. We'll see.

I was looked back to 2016-2017....so not 10 years yet, but it will be because we aren't having an El Nino this season. I will give you 2018-2019 as a weak El Nino, but not 2019-2020...that was neutral. And if you are going to consider 2018-2019 El Nino, which is fine, then you have to consider 2024-2025 weak La Nina. Lets be consistent here.

Re the fantasy range GFS solution above. you know, there are two types of fantasy. Those that don't look even physically very plausible - if physically not impossible. Then there are those that look physically plausible - because they are both physically possible, but fit some sort of back ground (non-linearity) about the flow behaviors. This is like pattern zeitgeist ? It fits the spirit of the times. That solution above does. We keep repeating these +PNA foot prints, perhaps masked at times. Anyway, we've seen this sort of turn out mid latitude snow or snow supportive synoptic modes some half of the Octobers since 2000 - as an aside ... prior to that approximate yesteryear, much rarer was that ever the case. Something switched around then to make October 10 - TG holiday span more prone to this - we all know what that is so won't get into it. This is part and parcel why I feel our best odds at expressing winter being a front loaded one. There's background tendencies to fire off blocking early ...and this fits that leitmotif as discussed, as a possible harbinger of a proficient blocking autumn into early winter. That's not me trying to sell November/December 1995, either. Really just what it says... our best odds at expressing winter - perhaps at all. I don't have faith in winters anymore, as being sort of Currier&Ives nostalgic reduxing, due to this gradient saturation issue. It's hard to block during the DJF period, when the gradient becomes seasonally extreme, because in more basic physical sense, fast flow does not go around curved surfaces if the flow exceeds the critical velocity threshold - it can't because the centrifugal acceleration exceeds the Coriolis and that opens it back up... that basic physical premise has become a delimiter during recent (decades) of winter, with increasing tendencies. 2015 was unique ... as an afterthought. That was resonance at a huge scale. The entire WPO-EPO-N/A arc was in on it, and so... such large spatial domain doesn't have short radial geometry - the flow can remain fast around a -WPO/-EPO loading pattern that way.

Clouds starting to thin, we'll see if it in enough time to get to 80 72 / 52

I head out on Thursday morning for a long weekend to Texas to meet our new granddaughter. So I'll miss one cool day but then see things warm right back up again. Not gonna lie, I had a similar feeling in that I was going to be pissed if I missed some legit cooler weather.

Amen. September 1 is the end of what? At the latitude of New York and on the coast, you can't really declare summer is over until November 1st, IMO. 70s and 80s is still summer IMO.

Rain Sep JFK: 2.96 New Brnswck: 2.66 NYC: 2.76 LGA: 2.54 BLM: 2.09 TTN: 1.89 PHL: 1.79 EWR: 1.71 TEB: 1.65 ISP: 1.58

12-13: ENSO neutral 13-14: ENSO neutral 14-15: warm neutral/weak el nino 15-16: super el nino 16-17: weak la nina 17-18: weak la nina 18-19: weak el nino 19-20: warm neutral/weak el nino 20-21: moderate la nina 21-22: moderate la nina 22-23: moderate la nina (but dissipating) 23-24: strong el nino 24-25: ENSO neutral I count 5 la nina years, 3 el nino years (2 strong ones), 2 borderline warm neutral/weak el nino years, and and 3 ENSO neutral years. If you want to make it 15, then you've got your 7 la nina years.

Smoking cirrus? We clear.

I had 3.38" for the month.

This is interesting from the MJO desk/CPC "...support for the formation of a Central American Gyre (CAG) event during October." Just inferring from hemispheric mode one would guess CAG vulnerability - wasn't looking but a corroboration from the MJO folk adds to that. Notable risks are TC's. Opal and I suspect Sandy ( just for examples) were born out of CAG gyres, just to name a couple.

Smoky up there today

looking forward to seeing obs from our resident lowposters before they disappear again

Looking forward to the cool down no matter how short lived it will be. Rainfall here for September was better than for most places. Received 3.32" for the month. That was mostly from the 2.15" that fell on 9/5, surprise over performer. Rest of the month was scattered light events. Hopefully October can deliver more widespread moderate to heavier totals but my expectations are low.

From my peak season forecast: “As the EPS suggests, we could start seeing favorable conditions return even earlier in the peak period, but I think a conservative expectation of things to heat up with the MJO after the 20th is the best route. That would make the September 20-October 20 period most active.”

We got a lot more rain than forecasted here. .78 and still drizzling.

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 10 (4) Hurricanes: 6 (3) Major Hurricanes: 3 (2) Fernand, Gabrielle (MH), Humberto (MH), Imelda (H)

hype brings clicks, clicks bring views, views bring $$$$$$$

Ninetys in Minnesota next week.

Records: Highs: EWR: 89 (1986) NYC: 89 (1986) LGA: 88 (1988) JFK: 84 (1986) Lows: EWR: 38 (1942) NYC: 39 (1912) LGA: 43 (1947) JFK: 43 (1991) Historical: 1875: What weather observers “observe” has changed with time. Among the remarks noted by the Lynchburg, VA observer, was today’s migration of hundreds of squirrels across the James River. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1892: Central Park in New York City, NY concluded its wettest month ever with 16.85 inches of rain. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1896 - A hurricane formed on September 22 and lasted until September 30. It formed directly over the Lesser Antilles and hit Cuba, Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina, Virginia, Washington D.C., and Pennsylvania. Its maximum sustained winds were at 130 mph. The heaviest rainfall deposited in association with the storm was 19.96 inches at Glennville, Georgia. This hurricane was responsible for an estimated 130 deaths and $1.5 million in damage (1896 dollars). 1896: A hurricane moving through the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The system then tracked inland through the Southeast to the west of Washington, DC. Richmond suffered severely from the cyclone. Communication was gone early on during the storm the only line that remained open belonged to Western Union, the wire than ran to Wilmington, NC. The steeple of the Second Baptist church yielded to the storm, falling across main street. The Governor's Mansion survived the cyclone reasonably well. Damage totaled $150,000 at the state capital. In Petersburg the Imperial Hotel was unroofed. Smaller buildings experienced great damage. Fredericksburg saw its St. George's church steeple injured by the cyclone. In Alexandria the Third Baptist Colored church was razed to the ground ($5000). Over forty windmills were wrecked at Falls Church. Manassas saw its Evangelical Lutheran church blown six inches off its foundation. It was one of the worst storms on record in the District of Columbia as five-minute sustained winds peaked at 66 mph and gusts reached 80 mph; the pressures fell to 29.14" around 11 p.m.. At 10:30 p.m., the steeple to the New York Avenue Presbyterian Church crashed to the ground. A five story brick building was demolished, injuring the adjoining buildings, trapping five men under debris. Many buildings were unroofed. Capitol Hill saw even greater damage. Georgetown experienced its worst storm ever. A few panes of glass at the White House were shattered as well. Winds began to subside by 12:55 a.m.. In all, a $390,000 in damage was incurred. A flash flood at Staunton, along Lewis Creek, overran its banks, killing five. Seven inches of rain on the 30th swelled a large lake near the town, bursting its dam at 10 p.m.. Alarms were sounded as torrents of water rushed down Central Avenue, submerging everything in its path. Twenty-five houses were moved from their foundations before crumbling in the angry waters ($500,000). On the 1st, the and Chesapeake & Ohio Canal merged into one as flood waters increased their height and breadth. (Ref. for 1896 Fall Storm) 1924: Norfolk saw winds reach 76 mph sustained from a cyclone that became nontropical over the Southeast U.S.. In Fauquier county, four inches of rain fell at Leads Manor on the 29th. In Richmond county, 4.60" of rain fell at Warsaw on the 30th. Richmond, VA recorded 2.19 inches of rain on the 29th and 2.85 inches on the 30th for a total of 5.04 inches. Leeds Manor (4.00"), Stuart (4.20"), Urbanna (3.80"), and Winchester (2.05") all set 24-hour rainfall records for September during this tempest. East Coast Rain Storm 1932: Southern California: Tropical cyclone rainfall of 4.38 inches at Tehachapi in 7 hours causes flash floods on Auga Caliente and Tehachapi Creeks resulting in 15 deaths. (Ref. WxDoctor) 1934: DCA had the wettest September on record 17.45 inches at 24th and M street in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA) 1943: A tropical storm that formed southwest of Bermuda moved to the northwest and into the Delmarva Peninsula overnight October 1 then dissipated in extreme northeastern Maryland as a depression. Atlantic City, NJ measured a gust to 78 mph and Cape Henry, VA gusted to 72 mph. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1959 - Three tornadoes spawned by the remnants of Hurricane Gracie killed 12 persons at Ivy VA. (The Weather Channel) 1961: An early season snowfall occurred over the Northern Plains with the greatest total of 4 inches falling in the New Ulm- Mankato area in Minnesota. Austin, MN had their earliest measurable snowfall with half an inch. Omaha, NE had its first September snow in 70 years. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1970: A nineteen-month drought in southern California came to a climax. The drought, that made brush and buildings tinder dry, set up the worst fire conditions in California history as hot Santa Anna winds sent the temperature soaring to 105 degrees at Los Angeles, and to 97 degrees at San Diego. During that last week of September whole communities of interior San Diego County were consumed by fire. Half a million acres were burned, and the fires caused fifty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1970 - A nineteen month drought in southern California came to a climax. The drought, which made brush and buildings tinder dry, set up the worst fire conditions in California history as hot Santa Anna winds sent the temperature soaring to 105 degrees at Los Angeles, and to 97 degrees at San Diego. During that last week of September whole communities of interior San Diego County were consumed by fire. Half a million acres were burned, and the fires caused fifty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1977 - The temperature at Wichita Falls, TX, soared to 108 degrees to establish a record for September. (The Weather Channel) 1979: This was the eighth day of 29 consecutive days when no measurable rain fell at Chicago, IL. The only measurable rain for the month came on the 1st with 0.01 inches. This was their driest September on record. Rockford, IL only received 0.05 inches of rain; their driest month ever. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1985: An early season snowstorm covered much of the Arrowhead Region of Minnesota with 7 to 9 inches of snow. Some snow depths reported for the event, which ended the next day, were 7 inches at Babbitt and Aurora, 7.5 inches at Isabella, and 8.5 inches at Poplar Lake. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1986 - Thunderstorms, which had inundated northern sections of Oklahoma with heavy rain, temporarily shifted southward producing 4 to 8 inches rains from Shawnee to Stilwell. Baseball size hail and 80 mph winds ripped through parts of southeast Oklahoma City, and thunderstorm winds caused more than half a million dollars damage at Shawnee. (Storm Data) 1987 - Afternoon thunderstorms in Michigan produced hail an inch in diameter at Pinckney, and wind gusts to 68 mph at Wyandotte. A thunderstorm in northern Indiana produced wet snow at South Bend. Seven cities in the northwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including readings of 98 degrees at Medford OR and 101 degrees at downtown Sacramento CA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed over Florida, and in the western U.S. The afternoon high of 94 degrees at Fort Myers FL was their tenth record high for the month. Highs of 98 degrees at Medford OR and 99 degrees at Fresno CA were records for the date, and the temperature at Borrego Springs CA soared to 108 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thirteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, as readings soared into the upper 80s and 90s from the Northern and Central High Plains Region to Minnesota. Bismarck ND reported a record high of 95 degrees, and the temperature reached 97 degrees at Broadus MT. Afternoon thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced wind gusts to 60 mph at Wendover UT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992: The past month was the coldest September ever recorded in interior Alaska. Fairbanks averaged a frigid 31.7° which was 13.2° below normal and the first below freezing September ever. Beginning on the 9th and on every day for the rest of the month, a new record low was set for either low minimums or low maximums, or both. On this date, the city plunged to 3° to set a new all-time record low for September. Snowfall for the month totaled 24.4 inches which was more than three times the previous record for September. 2001: Phoenix, AZ had an average temperature for the month of 92.2°, the city's hottest September day on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2003: Grand Rapids, Michigan: With a trace of snow hitting the ground, Grand Rapids records its earliest occurrence of measurable snowfall, beating the old mark by a week. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2004: Driven mostly by outbreaks from Hurricanes Frances and Ivan, 279 tornadoes were recorded for the month, by far the most tornadoes ever to occur in September in the U.S. West Palm Beach, FL had its wettest month on record with 29.40 inches of rain. Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne contributed most to the total. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2006: A rare F1 tornado struck North Berwick, ME, causing damage to roofs, windows. Damaged totaled $125,000. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) The first phase of the deluge focused on the Southeast, starting on September 26 (4.20 inches Macon, Georgia). September 27th Wilmington, North Carolina had 10.33 inches of rain. As the remains of Nicole tracked toward North Carolina on September 30, tropical downpours spread into the Northeast, On September 30, Baltimore, Maryland, reported its second wettest day on record, with 6.02 inches of rain. Two-day totals on October 1 reached 7.58 inches in Wilmington, Delaware, and exceeded five inches northward into western Massachusetts. Event totals exceeded 16 inches in eastern North Carolina, and over a foot of rain fell northward into the Chesapeake Bay region. Although widespread flooding occurred, drought conditions preceding the deluge mitigated the impacts. Today Portsmouth, Virginia storm spotter ID vpor002 measured 9.10 inches an all-time station daily rainfall record. [database to 1976] (Ref. Weatherwise U.S. Weather Highlights of 2010 page 9)

Imelda is winning the fight

2020-2021 was actually a pretty positive EPO, too...just wasn't that warm.