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There it is...

Tied up with some friends to swim and hangout for the day.

Ray, Please explain why you think the NOAA monthly PDO data that I quoted is overrated. What do you think about JB’s choice of a cross between. 1957-8 and 1965-6 as analogs (warm Dec except NN SE, colder Jan with BN S 2/3 of US, even colder Feb (cold most of US), and chilly Mar) making overall NDJFM avg cold concentrated in S 1/2 of US and JFM avg cool to cold most of US)?

Feels nice to get these high dews back today

5 SVR Warnings and a TOR Warning in SE WI but no watch yet.

Guys talking about arcs and 1/100 year flooding yeah

That’s slightly misleading, the RDU record has been broken (previously 9.11”). It was set in 2024: https://www.wral.com/archive/21561538/ The Raleigh record is what those tweets are speaking to and it is taking into account the switch to RDU as the reporting site in 1945, and observations at the previous sites which obviously go further back. So there is no RDU record pre-1945 as that site didn’t exist. But as shown, reporting site or not, tomorrow’s rain could shatter all records for the Raleigh area in July. My >13” total already has, if my site was official! It’s the wettest month I’ve had in 8 years of running my station

90% of the posts have been based off emotions and wishcasting.

Noah comes

How many deep are you?still on board for a wild storm ?

Some good analysis in this thread.

Congrats on Jack !

COC city

Yep put the AC on after a nice 4 day break

83 / 67 steamy vs last few days

Yep, at least not as bad as the smoke recently. https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/2081719174150443313

RDU has had THE wettest July 1-26 on record with 11.13” with records going back to 1887! See more about July in the Tweet quoted below. This first 26 days of the month is the 2nd wettest 1st 26 days of any met. summer month with only Aug of 1908 wetter (13.63”)! https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah “1.17 inches of rain just after midnight today at @RDUAirport now has the monthly total at 11.13 and 4th wettest July on record.. We are just 1.23 from equaling the wettest July on record..” https://twitter.com/SERCC/status/2081740186287849851?

3k is the much more likely scenario. Most towns get .50.-2” and a few get a bit more . And it’s got the jack where you’d think it would be to the NW. Also notice it lost that ridiculous Noreaster it had. So many wild tweets and posts about a July Noreaster lol. It’s a closed ULL over NY state. As boring as it gets unless someone sees a spinner or something

Agree

No wonder I'm in a severe drought...this spot is always a regional min.

Here’s this

I went up there not too long ago driving around. Did you go fishing or to park?

Setup's even messier than I imagined a couple days ago. The evolution of convection is going to be wild today...

I think this oppressively-humid air feels great (for 5-10 minutes) when I've been in AC for a while. I get cold inside.

ahh yeah I didn't check the 3km yet. Something like that is exactly what I am trying to envision happening. You can see too how that really hammers the lower Hudson down to around Newark...could be some serious flooding down that way.