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  2. powderfreak
    Had you hit 32F or lower in 2011 before the Rocktober snowstorm?
  3. Weather Will
    WB latest EPS weeklies control. first week of December is only 5 weeks away!!!
  4. Weather Will
    WB 12Z EPS. Next week looks wet.
  5. 87storms
    Sizable full moon...noticed it last night from Vegas (been out west the last couple weeks).
  6. sbnwx85
    Good to be back, gentlemen. I'll take your coats. Drinks are in the back.
  7. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  8. Yesterday
  9. Damage In Tolland
    That’s probably longer here . I recall a HFD marathon I ran in mid 2010’s and left here at about 5:00 AM and it was 28 degrees. That’s always run 2nd weekend of Octorcher . Only Oct in last 15 I can remember a freeze that early here
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    And refuse to acknowledge it....(not Adam).
  11. powderfreak
    That’s kind of wild. FROPA through here, some decent NW gusts.
  12. dendrite
    ORH hasn’t had a freeze before November since 2020.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    CC trolls will disappear if it ever fails....like they did last year.....either that, or have a circle jerk over how warm it was in New Mexico if they can't troll us. " I realize you just had a NESIS 4 event, and a Feb system that rivaled 1978 in SE NE in the midst of your coldest winter in over a decade, but the warmth in New Mexico was more anomalous than the cold in the NE". Funny thing is it still proves the point that even though the climate is rapidly warming, these patterns remain cyclical and will largely even out over time independent of the background warming. I know there was some talk that we were going to be in the MC for the rest of eternity give or take, but if ya don't know....now ya know.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think that means anything...early 1983 got cold via wave 1 reflection, which this season is better suited for than 1998 was due to the strat and especially the sun. TBH reflection is a far safer bet for wintry impacts than strat warming, which is hit or miss.
  15. cyclone77
    Expectations are so low this season that I predict the only posts that will take place in the banter/complaint thread this winter will be Brian's daily almanacs.
  16. Damage In Tolland
    I mean it’s November 12th
  17. EasternLI
    ~50% of the 12z eps with reversals at 10mb today. Increased % on the 12z GEFS today too from ~25% yesterday. Really curious how this all ends up. It doesn't automatically mean cold for anyone if that happens. Never does. It could mean torch... These things are never cut and dry. Just watching for now...
  18. Brewbeer
    the metric for "very likely" is 90%; what is the "smashed" metric? is that one week ? are you forecasting a first temp of 32F or lower for Worcester on or after November 19 ?
  19. ChescoWx
    I have emailed them not to dispute at all - just to ask for the detailed data. They were only able to share to me about 1/3 of the support for the data. If you can help me fill in the other 66% please reach out to your sources. You may have just missed it but I am launching a new detailed study of all 48 contiguous US States and will welcome the data to close the gaps on these estimated data adjustments made to the raw data to bring them to 100% support! thanks Cobalt!!
  20. michsnowfreak
    No one, literally no one, is NOT saying winter will be warmer than normal. However, it diverges after that with some of the clown "predictions" we have seen. Take an outrageously anamolous month like Dec 2015 then extrapolate a "decade of warming" on top of it . The funny thing is, if you use a regression line for the past decade of winters here, they have COOLED 1.9°. Of course, a mild '16-17 & cold '25-26 play big into that, but using a regression line from point A to point B is literally THE favorite tool of a certain group (with point A always being 1970).
  21. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  22. Frog Town
    It’s about time someone started this! Now I can stop trolling other forums for my fix. It’s kind of a relief to start with such low expectations—things can only go up from here!
  23. mitchnick
    Today’s 10mb Euro weeklies prog. If you scroll forward using the R arrow, it brings the dome of warmth over the Pole into our side before dissapating. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-10t?base_time=202610260000&projection=opencharts_north_pole&valid_time=202611020000
  24. Cobalt
    Yes, which there is no problem with, as per the methodology they've shared here. The rationale and its output is scientifically sound. I suggest you email them to dispute their methodology if you have a problem with it.
  25. ChescoWx
    That is estimated NCEI adjusted data....even that data looks incredibly not alarming!! Even you can see that warming is minor at best and nothing at all to be concerned with correct?? Do you honestly look at that and tell me we have any issue there in that great Yellow Medicine county worth worrying about??
  26. Cobalt
    As we await the results of October's data for Yellow Medicine County, MN, here is a look at the prevailing trend for the county (population: 10,502) October is the month with the 10th highest (3rd least prevalent) warming trend in the calendar year, behind August and April.
  27. LVblizzard
    GFS now has snow. Big storm around Castle Rock, light to moderate event closer to Denver. Definitely something to watch.
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