All Activity

Today makes the 6th consecutive 90+ day at MLI. Would be the 5th consecutive 95+ day but clouds are co ck blocking full potential this afternoon.

This Christmas it'll be chestnuts roasting on an open lawn.

Omg need that dew point drop…

Had a strong thunderstorm yesterday, and it delayed the football game for an hour or so. Storms fired today but got going just south of me. So had some loud thunder but only a little rain.

Two items 1. Thunderstorms require a source of lift to form. The western piedmont trough is such a source, which is why many times cell pop-up there first. 2. Thunderstorms are by nature self-limiting as the downdraft from the rain chokes of the convective updraft. There must be some mechanism to separate the downdraft from the updraft for a system to last. One example is shear. In a stagnant dynamic environment, which is very common in this area in late summer, it is common for cells to pop off the piedmont trough but then die quickly without any mechanism to keep them going. That's not the whole story, but it's definitely a major part. Some of it is also just bad luck.

It may be hard to get too many inside runners with that look, though....IF THE MODEL IS RIGHT...pretty big time -NAO.

It kinds of seems like the same forecast from 2023, just amplified, which doesn't engender a ton of confidence from me.

Nice late summer day-76 and partly cloudy here

I'm hoping for a waterspout lol.

Absolute ass

Here are the relevant SLP maps for JFM NAO: JFM ’24: strong -NAO JFM ‘27: even stronger -NAO, which jibes with your comparison of JFM ‘24 to JFM ‘27. However, note that there are stronger SLP contrasts worldwide in ‘27 vs ‘24 and not just in the NAO region. Note that in ‘24, only ~1% has +2+ mb vs ~~10% in ‘27. Similarly, the % with -2- mb is sig. higher in ‘27 vs ‘24. Not sure what to make of that.

The Euro's 23/24 winter forecast just stunk. As I previously posted, the Cfs2 was already showing a warm winter by mid September. This year, the difference between the 2 right now is not that great and they are similar to the Cansips, Jamstec, and NMME. So it's going to be a massive failure by all modeling or a consensus success. The only caveat being there's still time for modeling to change to something better or worse depending on one's perspective .

Yeah 140kt by the NHC. That is Cat-5. Insanity

El Nino for the win

We certainly can use some rain here,back into a abnormal drought and the yard is starting to get patches

For sure. While I've been a huge negative on the AI side of things, I do think they are going to provide value but so long as they are used properly. Unfortunately though, we're also going backwards with a lot of the changes done within the field. The lack of weather balloon launches I think too has been extremely detrimental to forecasting, particularly short-term. Once we, if we, get to the point of quantum computing we will see substantial strides forward with modelling and forecasting.

One thing I will say is that with somewhat less MC influence, perhaps it may be a it easier to pop a -NAO during the coming season, but still a lot working against it in the grand scheme of things....solar cycle is about as hostile as it gets with geomagnetic energy peaking a couple of years removed from solar max.

It's really interesting to see the strides made by AI guidance in recent years. We'll see if that continues into this winter. As I remember it, AI ensembles were great least year when legacy guidance was too quick to kick our coastal events out to sea.

Nice day out there and great to open up the house for some fresh air 76 here partly cloudy

Taker told Mick he was out of his mind when Mick told him to do it. Taker refused at first but Mick was insistent

And 500mb

In terms of the statement, "looking at normal temp 15 days out is more accurate" around 15 days out or so climatology is going to have more "skill" versus a forecast model. Something I learned recently but the reason why say the GFS goes out to 15 days is because that is around the period when climatology holds better skill than forecast models.