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Capital Weather Gang says otherwise.

@LakePaste25Perhaps this image can help to reduce your confusion and add some clarity....this point is also illustrated by the struggle to develop an Aleutian low to this point.

some EPS and GEFS members have been hinting at it on and off for next week but its a long shot

I'm glad it's not the following weekend. I'll be at an outdoor event in New York (though lodging is indoors) but that would totally suck.

It sucks and it blows. That aside, at least it's interesting weather for once

Low of 60 with .8" of weekend rainfall.

Upper 20's - 30's well inland with 40's nearer the Lake. Frost adv this morning up N. 60's/40's continue on an E wind off the Lake here in town.

it's certainly going to be blowing

BOM updated with a +3.8C RONI. Might be too high, but it will easily get above +3C on the monthly mean.

Has to be over the weekend though, blows

0z ICON last night looked really good lets get that solution again

hoping for some big runs at 12z

1982-83 was a record breaking east based el nino that had a great back half of winter (February blizzard and mid-April snow/freeze event).

FWIW both euro and euro ai ensembles came NW.

AAHHH finally...From GSP AFD this morning and for your reading pleasure At the same time, very broad sfc high pressure will park itself to our north over Ontario and Quebec helping to establish a cold-air damming wedge on Wednesday that will likely persist thru the end of the week. The resulting cool NELY flow and shower potential will help keep tempera- tures about 8 to 12 degrees below normal thru Friday. The wedge will likely weaken on Friday as the sfc low lifts further NE and drier air works its way into our area from the west. Nonetheless, temperatures are expected to remain below normal thru the weekend with shower chances diminishing each day from Thursday onward and increasing sunshine.

Right... I mean I just mentioned to wise-ass ( lol ) that it's not physically impossible.. I just wasn't going to get into a whole UVM 'stokes discussion about why latent heat release lowers heights ... Question is, how much and does it really drill down an anchor a surface low that the Euro's near bombogen rates needs to be 72 hours out for my taste. We'll see The other thing ... something happened about 10 or 15 years ago with modeling, et al. The general technological behavior seemed to unilaterally reverse. What used to be missed in the late mid range, suddenly became over amplified in general ongoing dependable practice. We colloquially refer to this as 'model magnification' but it's not like that's not doing that anymore. It's still a real tendency/hasn't gone away. Not having substantive S/W input into the arena, then ending up with multiple contours ... mmm sort smacks as a candidate for that oversell routine.

Still looks much more seasonable for us, than what we've been dealing with. I can't say the say the same for the central Ohio Valley.

Yep ended up with 1.32 here

Im walking in the Tunnels2Towers event on Sunday. As much as I want this storm to hit , I hope its a dry day.

I noticed that too, it’s a subtle shortwave then all the sudden it deepens with multiple contours at H5. But I think that’s also in response to cyclogenesis too. We see that in winter a lot, only strong s/w and more closed contours at H5. I don’t necessarily have an issue how it’s modeled, it’s more the track and how each vort lobe location dictates where the low migrates to.

I know, but I think I'd eventually have issues with it backing into Ginxy's dog kennel like that.

Took the words right out of my mouth.

Obviously we are weenie projecting, but decent NNE ageo flow there with strong HP N and NW.