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A dramatic warmup will is now imminent. The temperature will soar into the upper 70s to around 80° tomorrow and into the 80s by Wednesday. The temperature could reach the hottest levels so far this year on Thursday. Parts of the region could reach 90° for their first time this year. Temperatures will remain above normal into the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around May 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer. The SOI was -6.75 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.534 today.

17/8/4

I'm still not seeing any heat this week with possibly one or two days in the June 11-14 time-frame. But overall it does not to me like an above normal temperature pattern for our area. I'm aware some of the longer range guidance has a ridge over the eastern Canada and the Maritime Provinces nosing back towards us but that is really not a heat signal for the big cities of the northeast and coastal sections. We do not want to see high pressure set up so close to us or in the coastal waters se of New England. It's very much an over the top type of signal and the flow remains active with lots of cold fronts and an active storm track. The warm days are mostly low-mid 80s, yes high overnight minimums sometimes but also a cool push of air every so often. Looks near to perhaps slightly below normal temps to me and wetter than normal for most of us. WX/PT

NNE did fine....it's SNE that keeps getting train run on it by mother nature.

Yea, I think the real flip is near the turn of the decade.

17/8/5

Pretty safe to say Euro is not right . Maybe a storm with fropa. Little support

Damn. That's over 100 degrees according to my calculations.

For example tho, I think the 2024-25 winter could've had a lot more potential than it showed. So a similar outcome this coming winter may yield better results, especially for the Midwest and northern New England, but possibly further south as well. I think avoiding a major drought in the central and west states this summer will help too. 2 of the past 3 winters are good examples of how the pattern is more noticeable than the final snow number here. As I said, the 2024-25 winter dropped total snowfall inches of just upper 20s in Detroit to the highest being upper 30s in the microclimate NW burbs. But yet the public viewed it as an "old fashioned winter" due to the frozen white landscape much of the time (area-wide, but esp north). Just two years prior in 2022-23, snowfall totals ranged from just under 40" at Detroit to the upper 50s in those NW burbs, yet the vibe was "what winter?/mild winter" due to the mild temps and frequent bare ground spells. Now i dont entirely discount the final snow number- far from it. I was frustrated this past winter at what i thought was a winter that underperformed the hand it was dealt, much like I thought 2022-23 was snowier than it should be. So if the pattern this Fall looks similar to last fall, I urge everyone to not expect anything close to a verbatim repeat of their sensible weather.

Except where I was battling HWW gusts lol. Sneaky even down by the cape with gusts over 60.

It would help, but getting tired of this. At least this past Saturday improved in ern areas.

Looks like 75 will be today’s high.

16/9/4

I guess any time you got a Packman low eating its way down a warm front you can gets some repeaters ... yeah maybe

ha ... I didn't mean to imply I thought it looked that way either - I was asking if you personal attitude would improve if the drama in severe were added back ... I'm guessin' yes?

That's what happens when some imbeciles decide to take a meat clever to NOAA personnel.

I don't think the decadal state is going to change anytime soon.. June will likely be the 4th consecutive month with -PNA. I think there is intuition that what is happening is going to continue forward, but what global warming is, is a more general thing than the current state of the global pattern.

Jeez, Friday night through Saturday night look wet. Make your outdoor plans for Sunday this weekend. Euro just hangs the front there for 24 hours before moving out...

I think everyone agrees with that...my contention is more that we are just in a shitty multidecdal pattern that its likely enhanced by CC.

Forecast was off. Imagine trying to predict tornadoes when the only info you got before convective initiation was when a trough hit the west coast

To amplify further- coincidentally, this mutinational (10 nations, many scientists) study just released details the rapidly declining glacial trend and causal mechanisms. Effects of this trend alone will be significant to the human populace near or dependant on glaciers or the bodies of water they drain into- including the Oceans. https://www.uaf.edu/news/study-finds-alaska-rest-of-earth-to-lose-most-of-glacier-mass.php

Been watching a possible area off the SE coast in the next few days and NHC has a lemon for it now. Low chance but if it stay offshore it could become a weak low.

Popped off our 2nd 90 temp of 2025 today, at least dews are manageable in the mid 50s. Big dog ground smoke heading this way. The Fargo area has had an AQI over 250 today. Letting the kids enjoy the splash pad before we are locked indoors.

Good point in bold. There are winters where we both have done well, BUT when you examine even those winters, you will notice its different parts of the winter that stand out for each of us.

Yeah not a crazy setup for widespread severe but we would certainly see some localized severe weather each day I'd think.