All Activity

Blog on wildfire smoke in the US. There's been an increase in smoky years since the late 2010s. https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/smoke-gets-in-your-eyes

I'd be down for an early season chase up at Hudson Bay. Catching BES in some small town in northern Canada we be ridiculously cool.

I just noticed it starting to look like trash on radar lol. I'm hoping the convection stuff developing in front of it will become a fresh batch. Of course that won’t effect the deadlands where you live lol

There's not much rain with it either.

Sunrise this morning.

Insane range of totals around the lsland

All the really big events share the warmth across the Northern tier states. But the exact location of the warmest departures from month to month and season to season varies from the Upper Plains into the Northeast. The record ridge with the 1877-1878 event parked just north of Minnesota. So the departures up in Canada may have been even higher than MSP. The big story in the East that winter was the lowest snowfall that we have records for at some stations during the 1800s. While it was cold enough to snow in general, the storm track got suppressed by the ridge in December so it was a dry month. In January and February the storm track in NYC was too warm for much snow and the big storms were mostly rain. So NYC finished only 8.1” that winter when the average from the 1840s into the 1870s was close to 40” in that much colder climate. So the actual variations within the larger theme this winter will emerge from month to month. At this point we know the strength of the event in the Pacific is the strongest that we have experienced in 150 years. There are currently +10 departures showing up beneath the surface. With the event already producing departures at the surface far ahead of anything that we have experienced in August. Record WWBs are continuing this week.

Wow. Today looks like a fun weather day. There's a wall of water headed towards the area already this morning. There's not much lightning with it. Might be a fun batch to do a morning rain hike.

Had a brief shower....wall of heavy rain moving thru WV heading this way. WB 6Z RRFS.

Thankfully stayed out of the 50’s. 60.2 for the low as drew come back today thru Thursday

Down to a nice 54F this am, looks like heavier rain shifted south for tonight.

This current WWB looking pretty impressive. This isn't even the anomalies, these are the actual zonal winds.

Got down to 49.. feels great!

A PDS is currently out for the ongoing flooding emergency:

I post everything. And no one else has a problem with that except you. Get a life. You are a JACKASS .

Radar coverage for the eastern half of the island is down at present. Unfortunately, a strong backside circulation feeder band with enhanced southerly flow is aligned and curving upslope right over the Big Island. Radar would most likely show an ongoing firehouse if it were still operational. You will notice the lightning showing where the deepest cells are likely training under the deepest convection.

I am not confident we will see substantial ACE accrued in the Atlantic Basin this year. We may get a TC that finds its way into the right synoptic pattern at the right time to become a hurricane, regardless of land threat, but I do not forsee any long tracking systems remaining powerful for a duration that would stack ACE points. There will just be too much airmass expanding away from the Pacific from the mid-to-upper levels shearing off whatever might develop in the Atlantic MDR.