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Yeah, efficient mixing was what caught my eye on that sounding. That's going to be problematic. And I'm already getting gusts around 40mph here right now currently. We're looking at tomorrow night on that. Yikes.

Periods of wind-driven rain, some of which could be heavy are likely tonight through the weekend. New York City and nearby areas will likely see a storm total 1"-3" with locally higher amounts. Parts of Long Island will likely see 3"-5" of rain with locally higher amounts. Coastal erosion and flooding at high tide are likely. Winds could gust past 50 mph in the region. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool through the weekend with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -14.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.471 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 69% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.7° (0.5° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.7° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Winds are always over done where I am at. One of these times maybe it will over perform. Looks like moderate minds are calling for 2" in my area. That could over perform as it did with the last storm we had. But with it being so spread out, as stated before, just a good excuse to watch football on Sunday. We got to 70 today. It was a nice day. The leaves have not turned here, just a bit, so this should not ruin the fall colors.

This will increase rain totals as largest totals are on SW side of retro low. This could lead to more tree damage as you get the rains plus winds. Fully leafed out trees too.

I was afraid of that as we are starting to get into the meso range. Looks like a doozy of a storm incoming. Good sign for this winter.

It'll be where heavy rain bands set up that get the higher totals-I'd say Central NJ on north is in the game equally for those.

I saw that too and smiled. There is a near zero chance this verifies, but it is the first fantasy land storm of many for the season. I am cautiously an optimist for this winter.

All sorts of possibilities in that one!!

Wow

Psychologist could run a whole semester on this thread.

18z RGEM is a drencher for LI/CT/NYC

The HRRR-Euro and NAM have a break in the precip for several hours late Saturday especially west of NYC - in other words there probably will not be steady precip the entire event

They never cancel. They did it in 2008 or 2009 in a torrential downpour

Not really the point, other models have it as well. You want the storm to move westward at the latitude of Ocean City NJ or so and ideally before it occludes. The models that showed that earlier had the best winds Saturday night into Sunday.

Eversource CT just posted about hiring contractors.

Always

MDT might get 3/4” inch Sunday. There goes my concert.

Weed?

All know pressure on that is usually way overdone for systems. Has hurricanes like 50mb deeper than they are half the time lol

At my age it would make me happy, as always …..

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 PM MST Fri Sep 25 2026 A NOAA research aircraft has found that Polo remains a very powerful category 5 hurricane. The highest flight level winds measured by the aircraft were 165 kt in the northeast quadrant, and since that measurement the central pressure has decreased a couple millibars, to 913. An UAS launched from the plane measured a peak wind just above 200 kt at an altitude just below 500 m, which corresponds to a 10 m wind of 150-155 kt based on an experimental wind reduction model. Taken all together, this data supports an initial intensity of 155 kt. The NOAA aircraft reported that there may be signs of an eyewall replacement cycle beginning. Although this does not appear to be having an impact on the hurricane yet, it does highlight that fluctuations in the intensity of Polo are likely over the next 24 h while it remains over warm waters. After that, some weakening is expected as Polo begins to move into a region with lower ocean heat content and the vertical wind shear increases slightly. However, it is expected to remain a powerful major hurricane through the weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is still near the upper-end of the intensity guidance and is very similar to the previous advisory. Only small adjustments were made to the official track forecast, with the biggest change being that the anticipated forward motion for Polo is slightly faster in this advisory. Polo is still expected to turn gradually northwestward, then northward this weekend as it moves around the western side of a ridge centered over northern Mexico. Then early next week an upper-level trough approaching from the northwest will likely cause the hurricane to turn northeastward toward Baja California Sur and west-central Mexico. The AI models, notably GDM and the experimental WeatherNext3, generally show a slightly faster motion than most of the dynamical guidance, and the model spread has increased at 72 h and beyond. The forecast confidence is correspondingly lower with this advisory. The NHC forecast is a blend of the consensus and continuity with the previous advisory. Based on the forecast track, watches could be required for portions of Baja California Sur as soon as tonight. Distant moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. Key Messages: 1. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. Watches could be required as early as tonight for portions of the area. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 17.2N 109.2W 155 KT 180 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 17.4N 110.6W 150 KT 175 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 18.2N 112.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 19.6N 113.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 21.5N 113.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 23.4N 113.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 25.1N 112.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 28.5N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/1800Z 32.0N 105.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Current satellite looks pretty impressive. The prolonged nature of this plus high tide I think guarantees several places meet major coastal flood category.

National Weather Service State College PA 153 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Increased wind gusts and POPs/QPF this weekend * Stratified wx to rain vs. rain showers * Lowered maxT Sunday && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Nor`easter will bring gusty winds and periods of rain for the first weekend of Fall && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Nor`easter will bring gusty winds and periods of rain for the first weekend of Fall Sensible weather conditions continue to trend incrementally bearish on the margin particularly later Saturday through Sunday as wind and rain impacts extend westward from powerful Nor`easter tracking toward the NJ/Long Island/southern New England coast. Latest model guidance favored a minor increase in wind gusts and westward expansion of higher POPs/QPF to the Allegheny Front. Locations throughout the Susquehanna Valley will see the most persistent rain and strongest wind gusts up to 40 mph. We lowered max temps a few degrees Sunday due to the combination of clouds, wind, and rain. We can`t rule out some localized/minor impacts (sporadic power outages and tree damage) due to the wind gusts especially across the eastern portions of the CWA. It`s still hard to say how far west the precip will reach with the western Alleghenies most likely to continue an extended dry stretch through much of next week. As the nor`easter lifts to the northeast, conditions should steadily improve by the middle of next week with temperatures poised to rebound above the historical average for the end of September. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Prevailing VFR flight cats through tonight with increasing high to mid level clouds from southeast to northwest. Localized vis restrictions may occur in valley fog tonight and have kept mention of VCFG at western and central airfields. LLWS forecast throughout ZNY sector tonight as a 45-60 knot low level jet moves into the area on the west-side of powerful Nor`easter. Rain could reach KMDT/KLNS by Saturday afternoon/evening. Highest confidence in sub-VFR will be over the eastern half of the airspace through Sunday. Winds/gusts from 330-030 degrees will increase Saturday into Sunday maxing out around 30kts. Outlook... Mon-Wed...Improving conditions trending VFR by midweek. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.