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All that red along the central coast will be wiped out when the map updates tomorrow - we got slammed with rain here in Santa Barbara County over the last 36 hours, with thunderstorms still popping up as the ULL spins. https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

Just a general comment. Vibe in here is too negative. There is model consensus that we will have an active jet stream this winter with above normal precipitation. With a little luck, we will time some of the wet weather with cold enough air for snow. It is not a shut the blinds see you next winter pattern forecast. Relax and let's see what happens.

The snow is coming, be careful.

Must be nice.

Yet another head fake…November better not yield another can kick.

no complaints here, bring on the 60s and dry

Who’s saying impressive Brett? We were talking about who frosted and who didn’t. It wasn’t about being impressive. We are exactly where we should be…the step down has been right on track. Do you have complaints(I know dumb question…when don’t you)? And we’ve frosted a couple weeks ago already…which wasn’t even close to November lmao.

should get used to this look

Latest Arctic ice falling back closer to the mean as the Arctic N of 80N anoms have warmed considerably:

Been an incredible start to the season for the Southwest, and much needed. But very dry outside of the sharp borders of the wet zone.

Is touching barely below 32 really that impressive? I mean we’re a week away from November.

gotta imagine october 2026 will end up one of the warmest

lol at using any year from before 2016

Feb in the E US will likely be heavily affected by the Feb NAO. The CFSv2 is implying a strong -NAO in Feb ‘27. -These Ninos had a strong +NAO in Feb: 1992, 2016, 2024 Here’s the Feb temp anom composite: -These Ninos had a strong -NAO in Feb: 1958, 1966, 2010 Here’s the Feb temp anom composite:

East China

no one's asked me buuut, personally, confidence in any seasonal modeling is lower than even the usual eye-rolling when the model being use has "climate" baked into it's title and/or physical make-up.

Mountain Collective r͏e͏s͏o͏S͏o͏t͏n͏d͏p͏ 9͏3͏8͏ 1͏1͏0 ͏f͏f͏u͏g͏g͏ · Winter is among us at Sunday River! Temps dropped to the mid-20s Saturday night, and the Sunday River team fired up snowmaking on Locke Mountain at 7PM. Sunday River's new snowmaking system is moving 10,500 gallons of water per minute through 2,000+ snowguns across eight interconnected peaks. That’s a lot of snow. An official opening date hasn’t been set... but stay tuned.

the models from four months ago missed the warmest october on record