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If NCEI comes in at 0.77F above 1991-2020 mean, that would imply an August mean temperature of around 73.82F, or a 3-month summer average of 73.48F, which would tie 2016 & 2018 for 10th hottest on record nationally. A couple BIG caveats - the PRISM numbers are only through 8 PM EDT on Saturday... I suspect the monthly anomaly will be pushing 1F in the coming days. With that said, NCEI usually has LOWER anomalies than PRISM so it might be overstated. They seem to be closer when the heat is centered out west, and there's been a lot of heat in the southwest, so they might come in a little closer. The 10th place years have a pretty large lead over 12th place, so we're almost certainly in the top 12 (i.e., ahead of 2002) even allowing for some offset. Still a couple weeks of data left, so these can move around. It wouldn't take much to get us ahead of 2020 (7th place). Also, NCEI shows a cooler pattern to close out the month - albeit probably pretty close to the 1991-2020 mean, with warmer anomalies in the NW & SE. Prior to 2006, only 1934 & 1936 were hotter for the CONUS (using August's likely mean).

Wildfire smoke

Nice to switch off the AC this AM. Low was 59 here. Up to 69 with sun working in from the NE

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

One of the best days of the entire summer! Ideal for every outdoor activity

Boy what a win for the icon of it's dammed consistency pans out Also the euro AI. Both have been stubbornly consistent.

67/46 here. It's like heaven.

Af 304 seems to be having some issues with finding a center? 3 passes in a row, 935,938, then 936.

From the NHC. I wonder if there are more watches up the coast eventually if the nudges west continue. 4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch may be required later today.

Also from the NHC 4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch may be required later today.

Based on a number of recent aircraft center fixes, Erin's forward speed has slowed to around 8 or 9 kt. Although there hasn't been much motion this morning, the hurricane has again wobbled to the west-northwest. Nonetheless, the steering pattern and track guidance remains about the same as it has been over the past day. Water vapor imagery shows a trough developing near U.S. mid-Atlantic coastline, and creating a weakness in the western Atlantic subtropical ridge. During the next few days, Erin is expected to turn northward into this weakness, and move between Bermuda and the U.S. east coast in about 72 hours. The official track forecast is very close to the previous NHC prediction and close to the dynamical model consensus. Later in the forecast period, an approaching trough should cause Erin to accelerate northeastward over the northern Atlantic.

There's all kinds of possibilities re the pattern next week. no one's more likely than the other at this time given what's available via the indexes, as well as poor continuity with the larger synoptic aspects coming from the guidance.

Definitely an early fall feel with the temps, low dewpoints, and breeze.

11:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 18Location: 23.1°N 70.8°WMoving: WNW at 10 mphMin pressure: 935 mbMax sustained: 140 mph

sun working in from the NE here-up to 69

63.3/44

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data_v4_globe/

what a invigorating feel to the day it felt chilly outside..

Looks like we will get some nice clearing in the next hour or two and then will have the stalled front laid right overhead. Got that dying complex in Iowa, but that looks like a bigger problem for our cheeseheads to the north.

At 1200 UTC, 18 August 2025, MAJOR HURRICANE ERIN (AL05) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 22.9°N and 70.5°W. The current intensity was 120 kt and the center was moving at 10 kt at a bearing of 305 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 935 mb.

No idea but I'm sure someone will now say "that'll help us this winter"

The four major climate sites in Arizona on NOAA NCEI have all experienced a steep increase in summer temperatures since 1971. But the rate of increase at Phoenix for daily minimum temperatures is faster than the other sites.The increase in maximum temperatures across the four major climate sites has been fairly uniform. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/city/time-series/USW00003103/tmin/3/8/1971-2024?trend=true&trend_base=10&begtrendyear=1971&endtrendyear=2025&filter=true&filterType=binomial 1971-2025 Arizona increase in JJA temperatures Phoenix….min…+1.0°F/ Decade….max….+0.8°F/Decade Flagstaff…min….+0.9°F/Decade…max…..+0.5°F/Decade Tucson…..min….+0.6°F/Decade…max…..+0.8°F/Decade Yuma……..min….+0.7°F/Decade…max…..+0.8°F/Decade

3k NAM is really rainy for tonight and tomorrow. FV3 hires and hrrr less so, more for eastern shore.

1” of rain Saturday 1” of rain last evening.

looking very healthy.