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extended still looking mild/nino-ish

Yea, believe me, I don't trust precise measurements from back then....no argument at all. I get your point.

October 5 1963: A heat wave hits part of Minnesota with highs of 98 at Beardsley, 96 at Madison, and 94 at Elbow Lake. For Monday, October 5, 2026 1638 - The journal of John Winthrop recorded that a mighty tempest struck eastern New England. This second severe hurricane in three years blew down many trees in mile long tracks. (David Ludlum) 1786 - The famous "Pumpkin Flood" occurred on the Delaware and Susquehanna Rivers. Harrisburg PA reported a river stage of twenty-two feet. The heavy rains culminated a wet season. (David Ludlum) 1917 - The temperature at Sentinel, AZ, soared to 116 degrees to establish an October record for the nation. (The Weather Channel) 1972 - Heavy rains, mostly the remnants of Tropical Storm Joanne, fell across much of Arizona. It was believed to be the first time in Arizona weather history that a tropical storm entered the state with its circulation still intact. The center was over Flagstaff early on the 7th. (3rd-7th) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - It was another day of scorching heat for the southwestern U.S. Afternoon highs of 102 degrees in Downtown San Francisco, and 104 degrees at Monterrey, established all-time records. The high of 101 degrees at San Jose was a record for October. Sacramento tied their record for October for the third time in the month, with a reading of 102 degrees. The high for the nation was 111 degrees at San Luis Obispo and Palm Springs. Twenty cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Knoxville TN with a reading of 34 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thirteen cities in the central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Duluth MN with a reading of 21 degrees. Goodland KS reported an afternoon high of 39 degrees. Showers over Upper Michigan produced an inch of snow at Marquette. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms associated with Tropical Storm Raymond deluged southeastern Arizona with heavy rain. Up to four and a half inches of rain was reported north of Wilcox. Three- fourths of the streets in the town of Wilcox were left under eighteen inches of water, and damage exceeded a million dollars. Evening thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. Thunderstorms produced high winds which gusted to 80 mph at White Deer TX, and resulted in one death at Pocasset OK. Thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail at Pampa TX and Lefors TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 5 Mon Child Health Day 5 Mon National Get Funky Day 5 Mon National Do Something Nice Day 5 Mon World Habitat Day 5 Mon World Architecture Day 5 Mon World Teachers’ Day 5 Mon National Above the Bus Day 5 Mon National Apple Betty Day 5 Mon National Be Nice Day 5 Mon National Kiss a Wrestler Day 5 Mon National Military Podcast Day 5 Mon National Rhode Island Day 5 Mon World Meningitis Day

ECMWF October Nino plumes adjusted upward in Nino 1&2 and Nino 3, stayed consistent from the previous month in Nino 3.4, and lowered the forecast for Nino 4.

Monthly temp and precip care of bncho in MA forum.

Given that this might be a late season sprawling system, definitely a good chance this is a moisture laden system. Resharing here.

It was a brutal smack in the face for sure.

If you go back into the 1600's -1800's it was not uncommon for measurements to be taken until a day or 2 after a storm had ended... often times people didn't venture outside until they felt safe to do so...they had no real way of knowing if a storm had ended or not....it was risky to venture from home because the concern was being caught out in the elements with no way of summoning help.

Thread up now.

The models absolutely crapped the bed with the past weekend rain event.

Thanks, Mitch. Here are the Euro Oct progs for winter going back to 2017-8 for comparison purposes and how they did in the E US: 2026: 2025: much too warm 2024: much too warm 2023 (Nino): too cold 2022: too cold (not warm enough) 2021: net slightly too warm (close SE, too warm NE) 2020: net too warm (much too warm SE; avg of too warm NE but close N Eng) 2019: pretty close (slightly too cold SE but close NE) 2018 (Nino): net too cold (close NE but much too cold SE): 2017: close ———————— Tally: -did well in 19 and esp. 17 -did pretty well 21 -did pretty badly 23, 22, 20, 18 -did terribly 25, 24 -too cold both El Niños in SE and 1 of 2 in NE -NE: too warm on 4, close on 3, too cold on 2 -SE: too warm on 3, close on 2, too cold on 4

Incredible cold blast. Minus 2 at Tallahassee, 2nd coldest week at Central Park (though well behind 12/29/17-1/4/18) and the NJ snow paradox - the state's least snowy spot gets 34", biggest snowfall in NJ records.

Right....but, that was Boris' whole point, to whom you replied. I merely made the distinction....not assigning any blame at all.

Yeah, weren't there supposed to be highs in the upper fifties and low sixties this week?

It has been quite the torched fall...lol

I did not specifically mention A's or B's in my post. I stated that back in the day the measurements were taken after a storm had ended...in other word all snowstorms regardless of "type"

Flood watches have been issued for most North Florida counties and some south Georgia and Alabama counties. Flood Watch National Weather Service Tallahassee FL Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 234 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 ALZ068-069-FLZ007>019-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-326-426-GAZ122>131- 142>148-155>161-060000- /O.EXT.KTAE.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-261006T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Geneva-Houston-North Walton-Central Walton-Holmes-Washington- Jackson-Inland Bay-Calhoun-Inland Gulf-Inland Franklin-Gadsden- Leon-Inland Jefferson-Madison-Inland Wakulla-South Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Northern Liberty-Southern Liberty-Randolph-Calhoun- Terrell-Dougherty-Lee-Worth-Turner-Tift-Ben Hill-Irwin-Early- Miller-Baker-Mitchell-Colquitt-Cook-Berrien-Seminole-Decatur-Grady- Thomas-Brooks-Lowndes-Lanier- Including the cities of Bethel, Babcock, Hoggard Mill, Dalkeith, West Bainbridge, Capitola, Saint Joe Beach, Marianna, Vicksburg, Mitchell Co A/P, Panama City, Metcalf, Monticello, Seminole State Park, Simsville, Alpine Heights, Center Ridge, Freeport, Geneva, Donalsonville, East Albany, Lockett Crossing, Yeomans, Davis Park, De Funiak Spring Airport, Richter Crossroads, Moultrie Municipal A/P, Dothan, Cairo, Southport, Coles, Peterson Hill, Moultrie, Spence Airport, Howard Creek, High Bluff, Sumatra, Beverly, Lovett, Turquoise Beach, Cottle, Cordrays Mill, Milford, Bonifay, Chaires, Madison, Chipley, Chula, Bannockburn, Barker Store, Pelham, Hartford, Santa Clara, Tallahassee, Ganer, Riverturn, Doverel, Pine Valley, Ausmac, Decatur Co A/P, Williamsburg, Newton, Commissary Hill, Holmes County Airport, Graceville, Grady Co A/P, Iveys Mill, Bellview, Shivers Mill, Berrien Co A/P, Hawkinstown, Tifton, Elpino, Centerville, Cluster Springs, Nashville, Littman, Wetumpka, Killearn Estates, Pinetta, Panacea, Albany, Fadette, Fitzgerald Municipal A/P, Lewis, Pleasant Ridge, Camilla, Santa Rosa Beach, Lynn Haven, Apalachicola, Nixon, Lynn, Killearn Lakes, Browntown, Festus, Cottonwood, Glendale, Steinham Store, Dillon, Apalachicola Airport, Bainbridge, Blakely, Bowens Mill, Courthouse, Chaires Crossroads, Grooverville, Kern, Oak Grove, Thomasville, Twin Pole, Dawson Municipal A/P, Barneyville, Springvale, Herod, Quincy Airport, Early Co A/P, Cooktown, Brooks Co A/P, Cobb Crossroads, Crystal Lake, Greggs, Odena, Little Hope, Alma, Sandestin, Benevolence, Blue Springs, Queensland, Leonia, Wakulla Springs, Hobby, Sweetwater, Waterloo, Palmyra, Alfords, Red Store Crossroads, Lakeland, Cherry Lake, Ashburn, Sunsweet, Honeyville, Magnolia Beach, Colquitt, Walker, Marysville, Buckhorn, Westwood, Abba, Empress, Sylvester Airport, Worth, Valdosta Regional Airport, Casa Blanco, Adel, Fort Gadsden, Graves, Hacoda, Scotts Ferry, Branchville, Dickey, Morgan, Valdosta, Hanover, Wewahitchka, Capps, Moncrief, Five Points, Port Leon, Pine Park, Vilas, Elmodel Wma, Ashford, Ocilla, Port St. Joe, Pasco, Hanson, Irwinville, Fitzgerald, Douglasville, Point Washington, Tilton, Boykin, Cuba, Ashton, Beachton, Bennett, Drifton, Hopewell, Arlington, Jarrott, Beacon Hill, Econfina, Enterprise, Bay City, Turner City, Dixie, Saint Marks, Morgan Place, Harding, Mayhaw, Dawson, Nankin, De Funiak Springs, Pretoria, Southwest Ga Regional A/P, Sneads, Bradfordville, Bunker, Chipley Municipal Airport, Hilliardville, Hays Place, Sylvester, Capel, Logan Field Municipal A/P, Poplar Head, Portland, New Hope, Dills, Cook Co A/P, Laconte, Frink, Buck Siding, Forrester, Medart, Overstreet, Quincy, Wilma, Callaway, Cotton, Donaldsonville A/P, Abe Springs, Quitman, Springvale Station, Clarksville, Teeterville, Maclay State Gardens, Sopchoppy, Creels, Leesburg, Hardin Heights, Weber, Argyle, Orange Hill, Central City, Chattahoochee, Clarks Mill, Cuthbert, Gammage, Isabella, Fairchild, White City, Geneva Municipal A/P, Youngstown, Durham, Gordy, Edison, Eucheeanna, Massee, Red Rock, Malone, and Blountstown 234 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 /134 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026/ ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Alabama, including the following areas, Geneva and Houston, Florida, including the following areas, Calhoun, Central Walton, Coastal Bay, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Gulf, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Wakulla, Gadsden, Holmes, Inland Bay, Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf, Inland Jefferson, Inland Wakulla, Jackson, Leon, Madison, North Walton, Northern Liberty, South Walton, Southern Liberty and Washington, and Georgia, including the following areas, Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien, Brooks, Calhoun, Colquitt, Cook, Decatur, Dougherty, Early, Grady, Irwin, Lanier, Lee, Lowndes, Miller, Mitchell, Randolph, Seminole, Terrell, Thomas, Tift, Turner and Worth. * WHEN...Through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are forecast for most of the area with locally higher amounts of up to 6 inches possible through Monday, especially along the Emerald and Forgotten Coasts. Another area of concern is across south-central Georgia where locally heavy rainfall since Friday afternoon has primed the region more so than the rest of our area, so it wont take as much rain to cause flash flooding. Across the flood watch area, very high rain rates due to the tropical air mass may lead to flash flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ PK

wow perfect week ahead for October! Today Sunny, with a high near 61. West wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 37. West wind 7 to 9 mph. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 55. West wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Tuesday Night Clear, with a low around 35. Light west wind. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 61. Light southwest wind increasing to 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Southwest wind around 9 mph. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 66. West wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 44. West wind around 5 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 62. West wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 43. West wind 3 to 5 mph. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 61. West wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 39. Calm wind. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 61. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.

No, but it's important to note considering the context of the post that you responded to.

That was my last winter there and the only good one I experienced. I remember the Halloween snow.

Yeah I think there's a chance, though there may be high pressure around that suppresses activity to our south. Still too early to know, though. Up to 70% 7 day odds in a historically favorable area for TC genesis.

Did I say it didn't?

That is true, but you are proving my point that the same issue concerning measuring inconsistencies plagued Miller B events, as well.