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Check the July thread

we are never getting a 1996 summer again

A warming trend will commence tomorrow. June will conclude with above normal temperatures. The guidance is increasingly suggesting the potential for extreme heat to open July. Some of the guidance suggests that the heat could rival that of early July 1966. Much of the region will likely experience its highest temperatures so far this summer. Baltimore, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC will all likely see the temperatures peak at or above 100°. Washington, DC could make a run at its all-time record of 106°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around June 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -19.61 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.016 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.3 (1.3° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

My drought is getting worse on drought busting day.

Big west coast trough delivers snow to help aquifers, and hopefully pump that east coast ridge. Win win!

Meanwhile, out West the next 48 hr. -4.7 sigma 500 hgt anomaly w/ this trough. This is impressive S+ even for the Northern Rockies for so late.

Got it. Yes, it looks delayed b/c the ridge builds stronger overall on the E Coast this coming week than earlier models showed.

I hear ya! I had about 30 seconds of heavy rain and then light rain over next 1-2 hrs pre- and around dawn. Everything got wet but nothing to show for it really. I also had a 90% chance for rain — and it did rain, plus today is not yet over. Technical definition, I believe from NWS but anyone feel free to correct me: “A 90% PoP means there is a 90% likelihood that any given point in the forecasted location will receive at least 0.01 inches of rain during the specified time period.” It does not mean it will rain continuously for 90% of the day; rather, it signifies that widespread precipitation is expected and you should definitely bring an umbrella. Ha, don’t need one yet today…. and I may not yet technically be at 0.01” today

Road trip for Scott? Of course the MSM will ignore this atypically late season S+ even for the Northern Rockies (up to -4.7 sigma hgt anomaly at 500) and just talk about what has not even happened yet w/ its obvious E Coast bias, rather than talk about what is occurring in the here and now.

Picked up 0.02 inch from a passing cell

Ineedsnow see the euro?

I meant to say active start of July pattern. But yeah, I saw what you brought up on the gfs, latest run has a system around the 9th.

i know the euro came in hot because nobody is posting it

I was just thinking to myself about the corn crop. The fields aren't going to look the same after next week. I'm going to go out on a limband say that Pennsylvania agriculture is looking down the barrel of a season, that could end up more disastrous. than 1930 or 1999 by a long shot.

Just talking about through the end of this week. It looks interesting by next weekend here on the GFS. ECMWF suggests it would after next weekend. The hot ridge breaks down somewhat on the E coast so stronger NW flow w/ embedded troughs.

The rain is delivering today. Heavy downpours and it actually thundered.

Nino isn't really in charge in the southern hemisphere either. If it were it'd be snowing feet and feet in the northern/north central andes of chile, yet it's bone dry just like a niña.

Because mt holly was calling a bust at the time despite euro and gfs giving a good portion of us roughly 0.5. Though the rating shouldn’t matter, they got bent out of shape enough to lash out without any substance. They clearly can’t take what they dish out. You don’t see me complaining about getting weenie’d. Plus my first dig at them was in response to their swipe at me, turnabout is fair play.

Euro says 100 degrees and running.

0.00". Temp has cooled down to 80 from the outflow. Too bad I'm now done with my yardwork. The cell that went through Garner looked bad.

So why did you weenie the original post in the first place?

Generally we dry out after the main vegetative cycle is over. Drying out like this while things were in their main vegetative stage isn't something we see a whole lot, and it's going to be a lot worse then if it were later. It also may not be as bad for many of you as what i'm witnessing here, i've been missed by almost everything over the last a few weeks.

just some light sprinkles and light rain here-nothing of consquence-back edge moving thru

So basically the active July pattern has collapsed? Or what if they’re right about the storm pattern but it’s a week later than they thought it would be?