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Blue Hill is probably the best metric you can use. It’s been a torch so far. I looked at BOS. It’s drifted a little warm over the last year but nothing like it did back in 2018. I’ll keep an eye on it as we head into the cold season. That year Logan would report ZR at 34.

What about Blue Hill and PVD? It seems to lend credence to one ob when there are others supporting it to some extent, no?

Nasty. Knew we’d go to code purple with spotty hazardous.

BWI has a vis of 1.75 miles. Smells like campfire out there.

Looks like AQI ranges from 250-350 across the area. It smells horrible out. Not looking forward to working out in this today..

Congrats S coast tomorrow night. That has RI/ SE MA flooder written all over it.

Smoke doesn’t act like a blanket like clouds do

Dense smoke advisory for the Great Lakes. Don’t think I’ve ever seen that before.

Yeah looking like some naders are possible

AQI was up to 350 here around 2 AM. That's probably the worst I've ever seen it here.

i hope you guys get some rain to knock that crap down.

59 degrees this morning Looks like another day of smoke

February 11 1983 Dale City got to enjoy 17 inches of fresh snow! I remember jebwalking in it to my immense delight!

Just stepped outside to take the trash out before bed and it smells like straight up roasting plastic. I've never experienced something like this. Throat started scratching up in a few minutes. Wtf

Just for shits and giggles: How strong can El Nino get? Can it reach 7 degrees Celsius above the ENSO benchmark, or whatever it is called? I want a 15 degree Celsius Brobdingnagian Nino!!!!!! Why? Because huge amounts of rain is so much fun! I am a rain weenie, lol! For the record: We ended up with 5.9 inches in this storm cycle, I call the Mid July 2026 Storm Cycle. I might start naming the cycles, because we will have so many of them in this Uber Nino! We are now up to 34.3 inches of rain on the year! Normal FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR is 30.0.

Early thought is that storms will fire Saturday afternoon along the lee trough in an environment with good shear and at least moderate instability. (The NAM is likely too moist in the low levels, so toss its extreme instability). Severe will definitely be a concern, and the high PW environment may support locally intense rainfall, but the fast storm movement should prevent major flooding concerns. The potential round 2 is highly dependent upon timing. Right now, consensus seems to favor arrival very late in the evening, which leads to significant weakening (and possibly falling completely apart) before arrival. The shear will be increasing further after dark, so severe would be possible, but the timing really needs to speed up to make that happen.

I was in NYC. Really, really unpleasant, although the smoke nicely kept the temperatures down.

87F in Washington DC at 1am. Gotta imagine the smoke is playing a part in that?

DCA is 86F at 1am - another 80+ low there (3 so far this year) - 98/81.

IAD is 85F at the 1am ob - officially 96/81 on the day. First 80+ low

The UKMET (0Z), after having dropped this from TCG, brought back TCG. Also, unlike the 2 Wednesday runs that had it form on Sun in NE Gulf followed by a NE move across FL, this run delays development til Tue and then moves it slowly WSW: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 28.8N 86.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 22.07.2026 120 28.8N 86.2W 1008 32 1200UTC 22.07.2026 132 28.8N 86.6W 1008 33 0000UTC 23.07.2026 144 28.5N 87.5W 1005 39 1200UTC 23.07.2026 156 28.5N 88.6W 1003 40 0000UTC 24.07.2026 168 27.9N 89.5W 995 48

It’s nasty out there. Smell is worse than I remembered from a couple years ago. AQI is around 150 so we still aren’t in the worst of it.

the midnight 5min ob at DCA is 90 with 3mi visibility. IAD is 87 with 2.5mi

Took our trash out about an hour ago. Our driveway is very long so I use a helmet flashlight to light the way. Could see the smoke and other suspended particulates drifting in the air. Looked like the mist of a dense fog, but with smell.

Smoke may insulate our overnight lows. It's 12:15 am and the Baltimore City mesonet site is at 84°.