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Camp Hill enters the late-June/early-July heat with essentially no water in the bank. PRISM put just 0.76" on the cell over June 12–24, and my 5cm soil moisture tells the real story: it peaked near 62% after the June 10–12 rain and has bled straight down to ~37% since, with no resupply. The cumulative water balance (PRISM rain minus reference ET0) sits around −6.9" since April 1 — and that's before the heat arrives. This is a drained antecedent state, not a buffered one. @canderson I don't think you remember remember 1999 here because I was in high school still I remember that summer vividly as unbearable The forecast offers no relief. Pulling real Open-Meteo QPF rather than a zero assumption, the next ten days deliver about 0.18" of rain against ~2.2" of ET0 demand, dragging the balance to roughly −8.9" by July 4. ET0 ramps to 0.28–0.32"/day as highs hit 99–103° on July 1–3. Worse, the little rain that's offered falls before the heat peak and in sub-0.10" dribbles that largely evaporate before reaching the root zone. Functionally, plan as if it's a zero-rain stretch. To gauge where this goes, I searched 45 years of PRISM for 4-day stretches matching the upcoming signature — mean highs near 100°, dewpoints around 70°, near-zero rain — and found seven. The key split is antecedent moisture. The two most recent analogs (2011, last June 2025) walked in wet, with a soil buffer, and broke within days. The genuinely dry-antecedent cases — 1988 and the two 1999 events — are the right comparison for 2026, and they resolved three different ways: 1988 broke in 48 hours, 1999b ground on 25 days before a 2" dump, and 1999a never recovered, posting under 0.9" over the following month of compounding drought. Bottom line: this isn't a remarkable heat event by temperature alone — four analogs hit similar highs. It's the combination of humid 100° heat onto drained soil that puts us in the worst tier the record offers, alongside the late-1990s flash-drought setups rather than the well-watered recent years. Dry soil suppresses its own convection, so recovery depends entirely on an external trigger — a front or organized storm breaking through. The single thing worth watching is the medium-range guidance for that first genuine frontal passage in early-to-mid July. Its arrival is the 1988 path; its continued absence is the 1999a grind. Right now the forecast's leading edge looks more like the latter. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Questions still remain about how far north the heatwave will reach next week with much cooler air just to our north and east

NY/PA look pretty good 6/30

It goes in and out Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Summer is pretty much over after July 4th

Sunday starts what looks to be at least 2 weeks of 70+ degree dews, with a few 80+ degree days mixed in as well.

The afternoon Euro and GFS runs took us to 100 next week. Hopefully overdoing it a little bit, but we'll see.

RGEM tonight has nothing too. I was hoping for rain because we really need it, but I know most people will be happy because it's a Saturday.

A squall moved from Cheyenne to Fort Collins, and the windy outflow boundary made it down to Denver, with renewed storm development right at Denver

Has anyone else had issues accessing this site the last day or so?

New Bern is also 106 but it occurred in 1950's. It has been awhile since we hit 100.

Drove on 662 today south of Wye Mills and there are still trees hanging on the power lines. Tree crews and utilities were still working to clean everything up.

Now it has nothing

Absolutely classic El Niño standing wave

WB 0Z NBM

https://streamable.com/010pjd Backyard fireflies peaking in silver spring. This is after three years of curating their habitat with a couple hundred square feet of "meadow" and dumping leaf litter in a few areas. Everyone should do it!

Those first 4 days July is going to burn out the grass here and send us into not good drought conditions. For whatever reason @canderson and I have missed most of the rain this month. I sit at 1.25". We are in not good shape here and have been muddling along due to cool temperatures. That's all about io change and my soil moisture sensor already is at lowest ever 35%. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Squall line moving south down the Front Range from WY, kinda unusual. Will be interesting to see how far it makes it.

Euro is showing 100-105 for most of NC/SC on July 3rd, meanwhile, out west...

Coming into D 8/9. Overall looking warm - hot as ridge is regressing a bit so could yield some isolated showers/storms the perid 2-3-4th looks hot especially west / inland of the beaches.

@Wow

Todays's High New Brnswck: 87 PHL: 87 TTN: 85 ACY: 85 LGA: 84 TEB: 84 EWR: 83 BLM: 83 NYC: 83 ISP: 81 JFK: 81

Cut grass today. Last time for the summer?

Ray?

For now at least we look to just be on the northern fringe of the heat. We'll see how that looks as we get closer. Heat looks fierce from roughly D.C. area south and southwest. Carolinas and southeast look to bake under intense upper level ridge. Maybe enough of an offshore trough to give us a slightly less hot NW flow at least initially. If ridge position is more north and east the heat will surge in but as it looks now the worst of the heat could be held at bay and only last for 2-3 days mid to late late next week.