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Yep I was going to say the same thing... It just cannot keep the convection going.... every time it gets a burst, it fizzles out.

Looks like it's struggling. What else do you expect from #2026?

I don’t think that’s a legit eye, IR suggests that the inner core convection still isn’t organized enough yet to pop one. Pause in strengthening for now, let’s see if Isaias can get going again soon.

Last recon pass is up 2 mb to 978mb. Never seen a strengthening storm that doesn't lose any pressure for 5 hours ...

The September statewide data for Texas is now in. The heat of September 2026 made a mockery of the State's prior monthly record. September 2026 finished with a statewide mean temperature of 84.1°. 2023, the prior record, was left in the distant dust with a relatively cool 81.8°. September 2019 was further back in third with a mean temperature of 81.5°.

BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 ...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 89.8W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES

You shouldn't be trying to wiggle at your age anyway! (Hi Kettle!!!)

Looking good with some nice ventilation going on even in the SW quadrent. Has about 24 hours to maximize itself before shear starts to really impinge.

I wouldn't be mad if several New Orleans Saints players had flooded basements that distracted them for the next few days

It appears the eye is starting to clear

Outside of the rain from the hurricane, the weather looks depressingly warm the next two weeks. We may not even get a frost in October, and I normally get a frost and freeze this month. Not long ago models were showing freezing temps around mid-month and even chances for mountain snow.

Meh....no wiggle room to the south for the north trend.

Best looking system by far this season and close to home. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop60v.html Don't think this makes major status and thinking Cat 1 at landfall but spreading out as it landfalls. Jet interactions may make this just as bad or worse inland than at the coast. Winds will extend quite a distance inland with massive power outages. Ground is saturated along the gulf coast to boot. Lots of trees will come down. Tornado threat east of the track is going to be a problem as well. Surge will be the biggest issue at the coast I think. Also think NHC will continue to nudge track east a bit in future advisories. Places near landfall and to the right will get the worst of the winds and surge. West side could have not much going on with a lopsided system. In a more favorable atmospheric season with less shear this storm could have been much much worse. On par with some of the notorious systems of the past.

Yes. But GFS at 8 days….ya skeptical.

Yyyyyeeeeeeesssssssssss

Even though precise track may not be as important on Isaias as other more powerful storms, fwiw pretty much every 12z model trended east from prior runs. Heck, the 12z HMON is almost to Panama City Beach. 12z HAFS-B gains a whopping 32 mb of pressure in last 15 hours before landfall.

77 / 48 just a gorgeous day , lets see how and if any touch 80.

In the middle of both personal & business preparations, so haven’t posted much. I can say the vast majority of the public is taking the storm seriously. Should be able to post more tonight & then start OBS tomorrow when necessary. .

Beautiful fall weather the last few days. Now warming up a bit with hopefully some rain on the way.

You're wrong on pretty much all that. - China's labor costs are roughly 1/3 that of the US. And there is no such thing as "unskilled labor" any more - any thing that used to be unskilled is done by machines now. - China's environmental policies have generally been way worse than the US. They're doing things that in no way would be feasible on the US - displacing cities and filling valleys to build dams, thousands of square miles of solar panels in wetlands and lakes, transmission lines that run all over without community pushback, etc. etc. - Renewables have gotten vastly more subsidies on a per-unit-of-energy basis than fossil fuels, which is what counts. - While wind farms *can* be built near the coast - they provide tiny amounts of energy and at huge environmental and economic costs, which is why so many projects have been canceled lately, and why you see numbers like 2.3% for the PJM region, even though it abuts the coast. The only region that's gotten any kind of bang-for-the-buck on offshore wind is places Denmark and the North Sea, because they've got the perfect geographical conditions for it there. The rest of the world not so much. - Can't speak to your house situation, since there are a host of untold factors (e.g. your location etc). But I suspect if you took at honest look at all the factors, including things maintenance and replacement costs (not just your system but the whole roof), and subsidies - you'd find it's not as cost-advantageous as you think. Also you're talking one tiny part of overall energy consumption - a house. That doesn't help things like factories, aviation, commercial transportation, etc. that use lots of fossil fuels. And it doesn't help the 95% or so of people who have living conditions that aren't amenable to rooftop solar, like non-south-facing houses, and multi-story apartments - virtually anything with a city. You've bought into all the green lobby talking points. You need to look under the hood more at the whole story.

heh... in and of itself this is rather impressive for a week from tomorrow

I stand corrected. Thank you

It's clearing out on visible

It’s battling dry air and shear and this will get worse as it approaches. Maybe tonight this tries to take off again which is likely its last chance.