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Crush job coming at 39

The HRRR is now my favorite model

Was a beautiful morning, -12 and windy...and crystal clear deep blue skies. Perfect for a jeb walk. I'd be in heaven if we had 4-6" of snow cover like in Detroit, but at least it looks and feels like winter imby...and I mean only literally in my backyard. There's 1-1.5" of snow cover, which itself is a bit annoying as it probably mitigated the impact of the arctic outbreak here and upstream, and there are bare spots on the roadways and other areas, like under trees. But as long as I'm actually looking out my window, it's all good. While I agree this has been a bit better winter than the past 3, the snow pack has been abysmal since the melt around Dec. 10th. The biggest problem to me was the non-white Christmas...which seemed like a good possibility after getting 15" of snow between late Nov. and 12/7 or so. Or, at least it should be. While it has been cold with small bouts of snow over the past few weeks, we shouldn't be happy with essentially zero days with 3"+ snow cover from Dec. 10th through Jan. 31st. That's the heart of winter. Still more time left...and as long as the most obnoxious winter pattern in history (the dreaded chinook pattern) is gone, things should hopefully get a bit more interesting soon. The chinook pattern cut off all return flow from the gulf, and the ridge out west was always lurking...so even when you got a bit of snow, 1-2 mild days would melt it. I mentioned this elsewhere...but if I lived in MT, WY, CO, or SD, I would be going crazy. They've had no winter so far. At least we've had a little bit here. And I don't really pay attention to actual seasonal snowfall totals. What matters is the look and feel, measured by either SDDs or the # of wintry days (which are defined as days with 2"+ snow cover and a high temp in the 20s or colder). We haven't had very many, if any, wintry days since the melt in early Dec. If we had a decent snowpack built up over time, building off the great early start this season, then the delays between snow events would be more tolerable.

Still noticeable at 36 vs 42...precip field is different as well.

850mb wind map on 18z NAM is far more favorable than its 12z run. As precip overspreads we still have a good westerly component compared to pure south.

NAM says 10 PM give or take an hour, and logs an inch by 3 AM. GFS holds back a bit more and says up to an inch at 5 AM. Starts around the same time but then takes a two-hour break. These according to Bufkit data. I'd imagine the best rates are early Sunday and then maybe again overnight into Monday. We'll get a better idea with the higher resolution models, as has been mentioned.

I am just going to keep telling myself that models no longer matter because these high res models are really under whelming.

18z NAM looks a touch colder through 30. Keep it coming.

Pretty clear move south in better alignment with most other models. TW

Comparing hr21z frames between 18z and 12z NAM, the snow line was about 4 counties further South in Tennessee and the 700mb was colder and flatter across. It seemed to lose the more drastic difference though as we moved into hr00z. Snow line is still further south in TN and 700mb is better in places but not drastically. Through 33, 18z seems colder with snow line and 700mb further south, but over all precip shield seems dryer

Oh brother, I poked the bear with a climo comment

HRRR shows 2 inches of snow for Knox followed by an inch of ice prior to hitting 33 and going full rain.

Yep mentioned that earlier and the snow sleet line is nc va border now. Looks like we snow 7pm ish

Randy might have found it during that Tug Hill blizzard fest.

Look a the southern border of KY. The snow/sleet line moved considerably south from the 12Z run.

Oh I got NO IDEA how FGEN works. Notice how all my good posts are in the 3-5days before a storm range as synoptics is what I know. Though from my video I hope you can apply some of it over to FGEN.

HRRR back to upping overall freezing rain totals the last couple runs. Hoping it continues as I would like some serious ice.

includes sleet

https://x.com/i/status/2014730518286242198 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

For sure! I don't really think our cyclical climate has any real impact especially on large snowstorms....they run like much of our climate in clusters of occurances over different decades.