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Grilling in short sleeves. 52/27. Sunny. Feels like snow?

I have, though I was too young for it. Just those three seem to be which all others are compared. .

Looks like a better version of 6z

96 was legendary here in northern Somerset County. Our oldest son was 16 years old and he woke us up at 2 am that night, saying "it's so cool! I want to go out and play in it!!" We put on the floodlights and you could not see anything more than a few inches from our back windows. We told him only if he was attached to the house with a chain lol. Somewhat scary. There was so much drifting that our garage was completely buried from the roof to the driveway, no way out with a vehicle. We also discovered a small pile of snow inside our attic which had somehow been blown in by the wind through a vent. I carried it into a bathtub with a shovel and it melted. Haven't seen anything like the 96 storm in my area before or since.

To my eye, there's a clear consensus on the CAMs that by 18z Sunday, accumulating snow starts for higher elevations/NW suburbs, and by 00z Monday everyone is snowing.

I'm ready to hoist something else after that NAM run

I don’t know if this qualifies but the Carolinas had a tornado outbreak when we had a huge nor’easter back in March 83

Kinda crazy modeling is showing a 1048 high north of WI/MI. Similar position and strength to the Feb 1978 high. Low though is going to be around 968 vs 984 in 1978. Speaks to the incredible gradient this storm will have.

Not sure if its been posted but New York has declared a State of Emergency

Expected start time?

12-15 was still solid. I was 7” and 15 miles from 20”+ - praying that doesn’t happen this time

Ole boy or oh boy lmao

So 20+ in Marlboro, NJ?

why does Toledo average 1-2 degrees warmer than Fort Wayne when it is more north? The difference is shown to be 1 degree in October and 1.5 degree in July. I think it's bad data.

Wow youve never heard of that one. They called for a big storm off foot in advance than backed off to 1-3 well that day the amounts kept going up and up and up my first thundersnow and over 2 ft for me with alot of drifts

I am not going to say ole boy to the GFS but ole boy

That’s a great look right there.

I mean, lol when 12-24" pretty much areawide outside of far north and west is considered "safe" yet here we are.

hrdps looking a bit better then rgem

Snip of the 434 LWX AFD... Forecast details: Precipitation is expected to break out from west to east across the region late tonight into early tomorrow morning as large scale ascent ahead of the approaching upper trough gradually overspreads the area. Precipitation should begin as a mixture of light rain and snow for most, with all snow above around 1500 feet. Surface temperatures will initially be in the mid to upper 30s at lower elevations, and should hold in the mid 30s through mid-afternoon. As a result, much of the region will experience several hours of mixed rain and snow that won`t accumulate and will largely be unimpactful other than making the roads wet. However, snow will accumulate across the higher elevations above 1500 feet throughout the day. As we move into the late afternoon and evening, a combination of factors will enable temperatures to start to fall. First, we will start to lose solar insolation as the sun angle drops and the sun eventually sets. Second, low-level cold advection will increase as the upper trough approaches from the west and the coastal low intensifies offshore, drawing colder air into the region within northerly flow. Finally, increasing large scale lift ahead of the upper trough and to northwest of the developing coastal will act to dynamically cool the column. This will result in a gradual changeover to all snow from higher to lower elevations through the late afternoon and evening hours as temperatures fall from the middle to lower 30s. The heaviest precipitation locally is expected Sunday evening through the first half of Sunday night as the coastal low tracks off the Delmarva and the upper axis trough moves overhead. Two locally enhanced areas of precipitation are expected within a much broader precipitation shield that will encompass most of the forecast area. The first area of enhanced snowfall rates will be close to Chesapeake Bay, where mid- level frontogenetic forcing to northwest of the coastal low will be strongest. There is a bit of uncertainty about how just far west this area of heavier snow gets, but most solutions show it only impacting the counties immediately adjacent to Chesapeake Bay in our forecast area (St. Mary`s northward through Cecil). Snowfall rates could approach an inch per hour at times in this area between roughly 6 PM and 2 AM. The second area of enhanced snowfall rates will be along an inverted trough axis (sometimes referred to as a Norlun trough) that will extend north to south through north-central portions of the forecast area. Dynamically, this will occur along a low- level trough axis (in the 900-700 hPa layer) where northeasterly winds in response to the developing coastal low offshore converge with northwesterly winds advancing beneath the upper trough. Model guidance is in very good agreement that such a feature will occur, but there is still some uncertainty with respect to the positioning. Such features typically are very, very narrow in width (likely only 10-20 miles from west to east), and are notorious for producing very heavy snowfall rates. Most guidance shows hourly QPF values of around 0.1-0.2 inches, which would translate to 1-2 inches per hour of snow. This feature will likely be either stationary or very slow moving over several hours tomorrow evening into early tomorrow night. A narrow band of 6-12 inches could occur as a result. Due to position uncertainty, we spread this enhancement in precipitation out over a slightly wider location than will likely occur in reality. American model guidance (GFS, NAM, HRRR, 3 km NAM, WRF-ARW, FV3, WRF-NSSL) have this feature occurring roughly from Hancock, MD southward through Winchester toward Front Royal, while most other guidance (Euro, Canadian, ICON, most EPS members) have it occurring from near Hagerstown southward into Loudoun County. Our current forecast hedges the placement slightly more toward the eastern solution (Hagerstown to Loudoun County), but has an enhancement over that broader region. This is also why the Winter Storm Warning extends southward and wraps around the DC Metro area. The immediate DC Metro will likely fall within a relative min between these two areas of precipitation enhancement, but will still experience several hours of accumulating snow tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. Another localized minimum will be between the inverted trough and the Allegheny Front. Very little in the way of snow may end up falling in the shadow of the mountains just to the east of the Allegheny Front and also in the Central Shenandoah Valley. Across the entire forecast area, snow totals will be heavily elevation and snow rate dependent. With such marginal temperatures in place, a lot of the snow will be lost to melting at lower elevations with surface temperatures above freezing, while higher elevations have lower temperatures and accumulate more efficiently. The aforementioned heavier snowfall rate areas (closer to the low and near the inverted trough) will help to drive dynamic cooling through strong lifting in the column, thereby bringing cooler temperatures down to lower elevations, and making snowfall accumulate more efficiently. In terms of specific accumulation amounts, a general 2-4 inches is expected in the DC Metro, although there could be locally lower totals at the lowest elevations if warmer temperatures and lighter precipitation rates verify. 4-6 inches is expected along the Bay shore from St. Mary`s northward through Baltimore City, with higher totals of 6-12" from Carroll eastward toward Cecil. Higher totals of 8-16 inches are expected in the Catoctins, where snow will accumulate more efficiently throughout the event. Snow will also accumulate efficiently southward along the Blue Ridge, where a general 6-10 inches of snow is expected. To the west of the Blue Ridge, snow totals will be heavily elevation dependent, with 3-6 inches expected at higher elevations between the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge, while lower elevations in the Central Shenandoah Valley and Potomac Highlands see little in the way of accumulation. A general 1-3 inches is expected at lower elevations along the I-70 corridor to the west of the Blue Ridge, with the exception of near Hagerstown, where they could receive significantly more snow under the inverted trough. For now, that inverted trough area which extends southward from near Hagerstown into Frederick and Loudoun is forecast to receive around 3-6", but as mentioned before, the gradient will likely be tighter than depicted, and the max there will likely be between 6 and 12 inches. In the Alleghenies Winter Storm Warnings are in effect. Snow will linger much longer there through the day Monday within upslope flow behind the departing low. Snowfall accumulations there are expected to reach 6-12 inches by Monday evening. Elsewhere, snow should wind down late tomorrow night through mid-morning Monday.

seen it here in nj too....2/6/10, 12/09, feb 2013, jan 2015, mar 2017.....and the winner of all time, march 2011....even march 93 was a bit of a letdown....

GFS to 12

that's so awesome

Question for mets and model gurus. When data gets fed into a model (i.e., GFS), I understand in the satellite era how it's pretty easy to get temp data and precip/humidity. But how do they capture atmospheric dynamics like the various vortices? Clearly just utilizing weather station data and weather balloons wouldn't be near a high enough resolution to initialize a model accurately. Do they do something fancy with satellites and refraction to measure Eddy currents in the atmosphere?

If this pans out, Heisy won’t have far to go to chase.