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Given the much larger WPAC pool than 1997-1998, this makes sense. Many decades of steady ocean warming since then. So it also would not be a surprise if the stronger WPAC warm pool resulted in less ENSO cooling than 1998-1999 to 2000-2001. We could even see this event linger longer into 2027 due to how much ocean heat will be accumulating in the ENSO regions. It would be interesting to know why we couldn’t get WWBs this strong in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 to really tap the expanded WPAC warm pool until now?

I don’t know what’s going on here but this outer edge of drizzle has been hanging on for about 10 hours now. I would think (since no models have any idea of what’s going on) that you may be entirely right. Not feeling overly optimistic about anything in Michigan anyway.

We can only hope this is a preview of winter in the temp department.

That's cute Love how the bullseye is right over me. That's how you know it isn't happening But looks like the NAM wants to pump the fire hose Wednesday night. Still seems a quite a bit overdone

12k nam…what could go wrong?

congrats @weatherwiz

NAM floods you down the CT river

ehhh this isn't looking that impressive for widespread significant rainfall totals. Greatest concern for several inches of rain is going to be the Hudson Valley into NJ tomorrow into the overnight but as the system continues sliding east its going to begin occluding. Also seems like there are two warm fronts with this...we get a diffuse warm front maybe into southern CT and dynamics are solid...so we're going to see rain but it should generally be light-to-moderate and a bit more on the spotty side with heavier rain tied into convection. The true warm front seems to get pinched off well south. There will be some wild gradients with totals...some spots will probably see 2-3-4" of rain (but really spread out over multiple days) and some spots may struggle to even get an inch. All in all, a nice good soaking rain for some, perfect because the ground can easily absorb it and limit any major concerns for flooding. Could be big flooding through Hudson Valley into NJ

The Branchburg Dome is strong this summer, haha

Yup…even pulled a 31° there on the 28th. BED probably would’ve been around 46° that morning, but we’ll probably get another “coldest 7/28 of our lives” tomorrow.

summer edition

Low of 64. Hopefully some beneficial storms in our future.

Looks like the ASOS crapped the bed in the late afternoon and they just placed a bunch of M’s for “missing” to finish that month before it was fixed.

I would think we might get all of our snow from 1 or 2 systems-think 15-16-very warm but a 3 week cold spell did the work for us.

Frost at HIE - cool. We had 40/39 on 27-28 that year. Farther back/north, we lost half our pumpkins on July 31, 1978 in Fort Kent, and the next door neighbor's beans were torched - their garden was 2-3 feet lower than ours, probably had 31 while we only got down to 32.

12z NAM is wild for some

Might change thread title to Potential Convection Crapfest.

Mins on this day in 2001. Yes that’s a 45° at BED. Someone get grandpa off the internet.

Yesterday's 76/47 (-4) dragged the monthly departure down to +0.8. My guess is 0.0 to +0.5 as the final figure. Rain thru yesterday is 2.04"; avg for July is 3.98". I think we're too far north/east to catch up.

Unless this somehow drops a foot of rain here, I’d bet we aren’t anywhere near wettest July ever, and in fact, we’re running a deficit going back several years. This system looks to follow a familiar trend. Western CT going to get smoked. Not sure where people are seeing an eastern MA jack with this, I don’t see that anywhere in guidance.

I just had to

Hard to tell if it has legs or if it’s legit too. HRRR and Rufus couldn’t be any further apart.

Frustrating month

if the strongest nino ever can't give us a cool summer then what can

Last weeks modeling had the heaviest rains further NW and end up being SE in CT/RI/SE Mass, could we see the same with this?