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Honestly this isn’t the kind of setup that gets resolved until inside 72 hours. Maybe 48. And honestly this exact type setup when we’re waiting on a surface redevelopment associated with NS phasing and an amplifying upper low…is some of our biggest last minute busts. A recent example was March 8 2018. Expecting 4-8” across Maryland 12 hours out and the whole thing developed late and totally missed us. And I could rattle off more examples both good and bad. Similar one in 1996 and the other way. We went to bed expecting nothing and a NJ northeast storm and we got 6-10”. This is not a long track type thing. Even if it looked great at 48 hours I’d be hella nervous. Just warning y’all in case we get some kind of consensus in the next day or two…I still wouldn’t feel great. These type setups historically have given the models fits right up until game time. And unfortunately the typical error is for things to get going slower and shift northeast at the end. Not always. I have an example that developed southwest of guidance but it was 30 years ago!

If this storm delivers a widespread 6”+ to the forum, we absolve torch tiger from all wrong doings.

Nothing surprises me after the past 8 years.

Other than special teams lol.

6pm Wednesday.

That's next to Raindover isn't it? South of Peltham.

Me likey when blue go big big on map

Did everyone get ridiculously hyped over a model run a weekish away that had the perfect setup for snow knowing things would change? Again? A model run with just the right ridging and wave spacing where if one little thing goes wrong with PV spacing, trough depth, trailing energy and ULL pass? Those variables and the ones I didn’t mention that all need to be exactly as shown today?

Had a nice little burst in the West Loop to whiten the grassy areas.

So does this mean Wolfie is not gonna see this entire thread because he has you blocked?

6z or 12z?

With the possible exception to the GFS (esp 12z), the solutions depicted are primarily deformation precipitation with little or no overrunning frozen precipitation. This makes it more difficult to get a high QPF event. This partly explains the low snow means on the ensembles and AIs. It's only when the solution is extreme (12z GFS) that the big QPF appears.

A mix of rain ,sleet, and snow in Rainthuen...

Quite a few catpaws and some sleet. Little slush on the pavement. Took the dog behind the house today, about 90% snow covered still and found a tick. Things would survive a nuclear winter.

18z Euro lol. I can't recall that type of evolution, though I'm not super studied on the specific historic analogs etc.

Here we need to be on the Northern side of a big amount of snow early, with tons of room for movement. If we are too close to the cutoffs, we can easily get missed to the north. We do not have much cushion on this one.. that vort has to dig.. We need a big dig.. BIG.. and just far enough west to turn right. If we complicate this any (as we are now) we will need to bet on fail...

Euro still wants to open that 516 up too quickly. Each run though keeps it closed later and later.

Smashed his throwing hand early in the game too. No way he was 100%. Puka didnt do too bad either. They are a balanced squad.

The ULL in interior Quebec is more of an impediment to trof amplification than the shortwave near North Dakota IMO.

Tomorrow is too early for being definitive imho. Monday at least.

Reminds me a lot of last year late year when there'd always be a 3-5" system on the 10 day and then it'd never materialize. Seems to be happening a lot this month. Here's to hoping for a snowy end of Jan and all of Feb. Once March rolls around, I'm ready to get back outside.

It definitely looked in forecasts from early this week that today would be a taste of spring, but that idea disappeared by midweek.

that 18z gfs op was wintry vibes. it's been a solid winter tbh lol

Looks like more will be circulating through.

In non weather news Bob Weir of the Grateful Dead just passed away. I was not a Deadhead but did get the chance to see them a couple of times with some friends in the early 80's. I thought they were great when I did see them and I always loved Bobs vocals. Another legend gone, I can't even keep track anymore but at least the music lives on.