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With the systems in a medium to long range me it’s not about what it looks like. In a particular moment in time it’s more about the way things are trending. It seems like it’s trending in a gooddirection, but of course that may not continue. But I think we’re gonna get some snow storms in the next few weeks just based on both the availability, cold air and what models seem to be signaling as a more active storm track.

Now I don't quite remember...when's the last time we had a trough that deep over us in a nina?

Agreed on the sun. But atmosphere is cooked just above the surface.

Have you and Mitch gotten married?. Retirement hasn’t been good for either of you.

It's going to be an interesting challenge for the feeble early January sun. 50 is a 32 F recovery for a lot of these locales around here. Easier done even a month from now.

I know youve mentioned you like March...but what do you mean for February re: the knockout punch? Traditionally the east IS warmer but not all out torch like some imply. I really like the look for here. A lot of Nina Februarys have a really nice snowy pattern (but also some mild days). Plus Feb has killed it the last few decades.

It's the AIAmWx model! Nearly 100% accurate every winter and actually doesn't require "AI" per se!!! The only slight modification is that Ji canceling winter for the "22nd time" is a bit underdone, he usually is at that point by Halloween! Oh, and also...we then get a "surprise" moderate or somewhat better storm at the very end of February or first part of March to kind of salvage things, but a lot of people go "meh, March snows suck because they're gone in 2 days anyhow!"

The weekend system also kind of sneakily morphed into a pretty low QPF event. Almost that shredded SWFE look on the precip. The bulk of the WCB misses to our east and the CCB is way back up in eastern Ontario/western Quebec. Leaves us kind of in a dead zone of forcing in between the two.

Lol the differnce between the blues and dark grey's is literally. 1 to .3. That map makes it look worse than it is. Would I like it to be full of purples and pinks for us? Sure but another few 10ths of an inch of snow and the entire area would be in the "blue"

It varies by location, but generally the mid-January to early February is the coldest period of the year in this region (at Detroit, the coldest 2 weeks are January 18-31). So when you see ensemble maps with colder than avg temps during the coldest time of year - thats cold. Also, the colder than avg anomalies in already frigid places paired with the warmer than avg anomalies in already warm places mean a HUGE contrast in temps. This places our region in a great spot for potential. I mean, its just that, potential, but you definitely cant hate the look going forward.

Seems as though I was off a bit on overall progression of near normal for the region. Warmth extended a little bit longer than previously expected. As for the AAM maybe it is because it is standardized that it is different from the CFS forecast of showing around -1.

Indeed- I said my first word upon seeing the snow "wow!"

NAM laughably too cold for surface temps today… These clouds are breaking… widespread mid 40’s easy and 50 within reach at many spots in SNE.

Yeah as the storm intensifies offshore, it pulls in that arctic airmass…that high is moving E at the same time. I honestly have no idea if we even get a storm, but assuming we got something semi-depicted, it could be one of those systems that starts as pure paste (or even mixed/rain on coastal plain) and then it advects in much colder air as it gets drawn into the CCB. The biggest big dog in Mar ‘18 kind of did that. First few inches were like spackle here and then we ended up with 2 feet, the latter 20” was mostly pure powder as temps plummeted in the CCB. At this point, I’d take just a minimal warning event and I’d consider that a huge win if we somehow squeezed out that type of event next Friday.

06z doesn’t go out far enough on the Euro but geez it looked like it was about to hammer us for the first storm.

Gonna look at everything this weekend and probably write something up.....maybe also urinate a snowflake onto a napkin for Steve to understand.

ah yeah. no did not loop it. I was in fact knee jerk reacting to that as a scalar "nice looking set up". Which if we didn't know the history, I would still argue that doesn't look that good. However, upon knowing/looping, yeah we can see that the wind barbs along and off the EC are pivoting toward more SW from W/WSW direction.. That's some slowing of the progressive aspect; probably going to be enough to allow that WI knife to 'catch up'. Still don't like the QUE position up there but probably what happens is there's a potent result with a very sharp N deform axis type deal

That looked like a Miller B-East job to me.

4th straight post mentioning/showing a positive trend?

It doesn't yet, But i'm thinking more that this upcoming period is going to work out.

Just 0.17" here. Tiny snow pile still on side of my driveway, will see if it lasts the day. Absolutely hate these days, but I expect a handful of them in a La Nina. DTWs record high today was low-hanging fruit (55F), so they set a new record of 56F.

I just checked my cam and my arbors have some rime as well from the fog.

I agree. I’d think that would produce something. It could be of those systems that takes a wide left turn but really comes back N and slams New England if you time the neg tilt correctly.

Yea, I think seeing Brian loop that convinced me it would have ended well...not that it matters.

Not freezing fog anymore, it's snow eating warm fog now.