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This extended warmth in January is what I call a winter killer. Basically a week straight of March. Awful. 47F. Feels good at least

partial phase on icon for next Thursday-fri

Nice. I've done that in this kind of weather. Installing a service on the outside of a house in cold weather isn't fun.

Yeah, EPS has a transition back to colder again following this warmer pattern.

I only have pivotal's surface plots for the ICON-EPS but if for a giggle one wants to consider it, I think the low placement is better. The low to our NE is getting out faster and there's broader low pressure along the east coast on the mean. Stronger high to the NW.

Oh boy

2.4” here, almost all 1-6 am.

12z ICON with the teaser but never really gets anything going for us

I think as a proxy for "when the storm winds up", more snow modeled in TN is good. If it isn't there, would suggest the process is delayed and we go OTS I think.

If it's conducive for snow to our south, then we're in a position to score.

FWIW - same kind of graphic for DCA instead of wherever TN

Biggest run of our lives?

Good for Tennessee? lol

LOL ... haha yup, set up the easy recliner with towels, tie off the upper arm with the rubber...and start tapping the hit vein, the dopa delivery is always here!

EPS starting to get busy. Another good sign. EDIT: Yes, I know this is for TN, if it's showing a favorable pattern to our south, then we're in a position to score here.

That makes things easier, huh? But was he wrong?

Yep!

For the record, I have to google have the $h!t you people say. But I'm learning!

12z ICON is a swing and a miss for Storm #1

Gosh, Pivotal is so much faster. Was refreshing WxBell and am 40 hours behind.

Looked better initially but the NS sw phasing was delayed vs previous runs. Good in one direction, bad in another. Par for the course

no doubt, could be one of the more exciting 12z runs in a long time, or just more of the same, quick tease and disappointment ...

not that anyone asked but ... i feel now until Feb 8 is winter regardless of temperature anomalies. it's really more of whether the pattern is compensating for the sun challenges at this latitude/dates. That doesn't make it non-winter though. the earth really needs to get it's tilt across whatever degrees from vertical it is on or around Feb 8 before i consider non-winter. "consider" - that doen't mean declared. It depends on the year at hand. Obviously, in 2015... Feb 8th didn't mean shit. But, other years, you feel the sun and south side flower beds have little crokus shoots. the snow's been beaten back to the shady woods and you're putting up +5s ... it's not very winter like when it's like that and then combined, the sun's left the min and soaks us. so it depends on the year. but without the sun, heh... it's winter. it's just a matter of whether the winter is what we want it do be.

Nope, still too late. But we're getting there.

Never mind they are both standardized. For some reason the CFS forecast looks lower than the other chart. Figured I would also add these two to show the progression better and the overall potential impacts.