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  2. AFTER the first week of September. I give it a cursory glance as I do the contributors on this site as far as the winter outlook goes....but personally, I'm not fond of his presentation.... has this way of going about it where as he never actually commits himself to anything, and I think his interpretation of ENSO leaves a great deal to be desired. He clings to these archaic, over simplified generalizations, such as "winter will rock if ENSO weakens quickly"...his understanding of ENSO is quite crude and not nuanced enough. It's apparent that he doesn't have a firm grasp of local climo when viewing his storm maps for the region.
  3. Should be a nice breezy day in the upper 60's w/ lows tonight in the low 40's. Not much rain materialized over the past several days, It's pretty dry. I've had a hummingbird feeding frenzy for about 2-3 weeks then seemingly overnight they're gone. I'll leave the feeders up another week or two for stragglers. Sure sign that summer is over in the northland.
  4. That's +PNA/-NAO...don't mistake the blue shading out west in association with an immense PAC jet as RNA....look at the height lines..see how they have a gentle WNW - ESE slope? That is a subtle +PNA.
  5. Just waiting to see how much rain we get today. Currently 62 degrees River is still a mess.
  6. Hoping get enough clearing tonight to see the lunar eclipse. Last decent one till 2029.
  7. Had some heavy rains albeit brief in Newark on the turnpike. Had double rainbow entire drive down to red bank.
  8. Guy I trust said after the first week of September.
  9. Looks like Septorcher to start. Where are all the blues and fall weather?
  10. I'm so excited to be in a marginal risk I can hardly contain myself.
  11. Yea, the outlook overall was garbage, though...I misinterpreted the El Nino adjoining the west-warm pool as more of a Modoki influence, rather than MC, which is what it was. I learned so much from that bust, and from Chris.
  12. That is just to my west. I can hear the thunder every few seconds. Good storm for that area
  13. Satellite OISST (through August) has risen to a new peak, 0.08C warmer than the previous peak in September 2023. So far, the nino spike this year is very similar in magnitude to the 2023 spike. Both larger and faster than previous El Nino.
  14. Morning commute at the Hoboken Train Station.
  15. The numbers show that we didn’t get the cooler developing super El Niño summer that was common in the past. We were significantly warmer than 2023. It was also warmer than 2015 which also didn’t have the extreme 100°+ heat that we had from May into mid-July. Most of the years you cited were the summers which followed the El Niño events and not before. The entire CONUS was too warm to allow a cooler summer here like 1972, 1982, and 1997.
  16. Min 56.8° Getting into fog season now with the cooler days, longer nights, and lingering dews.
  17. Raining now with a nice line of storms moving into western nj
  18. Today
  19. The size of this boulder being moved is unreal, never seen anything like this event and it's probably small potatoes compared to what is coming
  20. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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