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45/30 even with overcast

Just beautiful out there. This is long overdue.

I am going to the Lourdes Shrine in Litchfield to light a candle for this.

March DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 5.0 4.1 3.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 3.3 2.7 0.3

Can go out without a coat in this weather. Gorgeous outside

Every couple of runs the GFS tosses out a big snow event for the mid-state.

what a day. hoping for plenty of sunny, mild days to warm those SST's up

60 degrees in Germantown

Starting to look like southern ct may see the most qpf on this one, instead of 2-3.5” like Wednesday this should be more like 1-2.5”.. One more shot of snow Tuesday PM, then the big melt starts Wednesday / Thursday .

59 at 1 pm. Might hit mid 70s late next weekend/next Monday.

I like his map and the numbers on it. You’ll always have some variation in this type of storm, as long as the outliers are gone it’s perfectly fine and within margin of error. His map looks good.

Sun angle has nothing to do with cold with a cold pattern in place. Your predictions this winter have been outrageous .

I've been pushing more of a 'melt and mud' season for the time being. There's a higher ceiling than that. However, in deference to the fact that every month since last October has successfully target this region of the continent for disproportionate cold relative to the whole hemisphere, it's hard to imagine this warm up performing at the higher end - just based on that unmitigated persistence. If that 564+ dm thickness surge makes inside of 84 hours on guidance, fine... I'll tell yeah ...wouldn't it be interesting to see a 70s transporting warm front run over this snow pack though?

Ice jam city - it’s wild how the leading edge is flat then it’s moon crater everywhere

53 / 38 warmes since Jan 14th here.

After today idk if I want it back.

47F/ clouds

"A" graded winter IMBY. 12" snow and sleet from the big January storm, but could have been 18"+ if it stayed all snow. 12" for the blizzard but I wasn't here to see it, places to my East got 20"+ and the blizzard conditions didn't seem to materialize in northern Delaware. It's an A+ if we get 18+ from either of those storms. A bit picky I guess lol.

And after several a couple days of nice runs the GFS is back to zero snow for the front range out to 384.

Both the GFS and AIEuro like 12-15th to bring winter back.

Honestly, don’t need warm I will gladly take 45-50F as a cool down

For this year, it's finished. The sun angle is going to prevent us from getting arctic cold. As for the next east coast snowstorm pattern, your guess is as good as mine. I can guarantee you, though, that there probably won't be one until at least November.

That's like a 'rubber band' pattern at the end of that GFS. Basically ... the model loses the forcing that driving the predominating signal, earlier in the run's time spans, and there's a kind of emergent 'elasticity' where the physics respond by then default to huge instability ... creating a pattern overcompensation. That's likely all manufactured by normal accumulation of a randomness over time finally buckling the scaffold of the total synopsis and then that emerges, equally as a result of randomness. In other words, there's pretty much 0 practical usefulness of that storm/chart. Having said that...yeah, in principle, the warm pattern is not likely to last indefinitely ... even though I want it to. HAHAHA. Personal druthers aside, I wouldn't be shocked if the warm pattern begins to progress off and the emergence of a western limb -NAO burst happens. It's in the latter sequence of events that here may be a last hurrah winter expression ...be it temperatures and annoyance or perhaps an actual event. Boinnnng or not, the GFS also looks like what it does every year's first 2nd or third warm up - I know...because I whine about it ...every year at this time. It washes out warm signal prematurely and then resets the basal pattern back to Feb 1. Not sure why it predictably does this, but that pattern at the end of the run with those long wave spaces and deep heights over Canada strikes me as suspiciously the same thing it does ever early to mid spring.

Great day for a walk. Centennial lake in HoCo still 80%+ iced over