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What's interesting here on the east end, the tide gauge in orient had a rather low, low tide level at 3:53. Lower then the last 2 low tides. Winds are less today though so dunno exactly

Not thread yet with only the NAM being the only one really being onboard.

They are all working on the cf products but they just told me and one of the TV mets that Hey guys were are still working on it. There are some changes to water levels and its complex coastline that we are dealing with. No changes to coastal flood benchmarks. Expecting a new CFW out within the hour.

Nam may be doing Nam things along with the other hi res. It’s also putting a low where there is no low currently. Ira northeast of whwre models have. Not sure if that means much yet.

Then it’ll just bring that bitch up into RI in a run or two. We’ve seen this NAM movie before.

3.7 total event

Where should we put the weekend storm stuff? Here or a thread!

Very much agreed. Factoring in ground saturation, heavy rains, and a full moon is no bueno for many

It’s picking-up on its convective nature to wrap-in. A LIS or RI special, while the Globals are tuned differently…. You take the middle road at this timeframe.

If the NAM is correct, we back our way into this storm at such short lead time... everyone would be shouting for joy if this was January.

You said the boss edited it. You will learn who the boss is when you get married.

I'm at the Manasquan Inlet prepping for a 5pm live and it's not too bad here yet. The Stevens tide model is showing major here for Saturday morning, a bit higher than the NOAA guide which keeps it just at moderate/minor levels.

The 12k NAM takes the center to basically Cape May by 06z Sunday.

Seaside Parks reverse OEM reverse call is going to panic a lot of people. Probably rightfully so.

Convective feedback likely playing a role

The 18z 3k NAM has quite a bit of rain Friday night. Anyway most of the rain should fall on Sunday, not Saturday.

Just like no Hurricanes in the Atlantic this year.

Kinda wild how different the solutions are this close in.

nope but it has maintained its solution for a couple runs now

Do we trust the NAM this far out?

Both nams say what rain? At least thru late saturday

both NAMS are so far south most of us get less than a half inch of rain lol

I think the coastal flooding is going to be worse than many think.

If that high-pressure splits at the right time, it will “ dual-carb” the low with cold-ish water vapor off the North Atlantic, whilst also not allowing a clear “path of least resistance.” Hence the Fujiwara effect all models have.