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IDK about being a step down but a widespread 8-10" maintaining all likelihood is still impressive.

This feels like 2017 when I was in NYC, but not quite as bad. The call from NWS was for 24-36"--the largest total I've ever seen from NWS--with less than 24 hours to go. By gametime they were bringing down estimates by half a foot an hour, and we basically got a sleetfest after 6". Hoping for the best, but this is why I didn't put my chips in yesterday. These things almost always shift around. Given what was modeled for the last day-plus, a 4-8" really isn't going to feel nearly as nice as it would have otherwise.

Yeah, I mean the trends today have obviously not been great but we are still three full days from onset and new data will feed into the models tonight. It’s also clear that none of them seem to have all the pieces exactly figured out yet. I can’t imagine folks coming this far and throwing in the towel already.

20:1 is pretty unlikely

Boyd 18z ECMWF showing freezing rain area (pink) Saturday afternoon/night/Sunday. As you can see, Nashville is included in this area. Significant ice accretion is looking more possible for Nashville Saturday night. Snowfall totals for event in Nashville around 6 inches. Snow begins in Nashville after midnight Friday night and continues during the day Saturday, transitioning to freezing rain and sleet Saturday afternoon/night into Sunday morning before switching to all snow on Sunday. The blue is rain in the imagery (I would have chosen green). #TNwx #KYwx #ALwx

I’m drunk. They laid off 20 more people tonight. Crazy how the HRRR in range is showing blistering cold into Kentucky with the PV and yet we’re in the upper 30s? Cmon now .

hey John I did look at the Euro AI model and they were all below 0 celsius which to me shows all snow. The low doesn't cut or transfer it just rides the baroclinic pressure gradient which is way south of us.

Banter thread buddy

Where can i sign up for text alerts? Nacho's lights are already flickering

Road is finally starting to cover up . That road salt is brutal

I don't think the GFS has had as many wild swings as the Euro has the last two days.

Ahh- I see....and yes, that would change pretty much everything at this point...early phasing would act as the kicker on the 50/50 and make it more progressive, correct? Some of the ensembles were showing this, but then I saw some others that had some genuinely bizarre solutions I still am skeptical of this without seeing more of the metadata being fed in- many of the other ensembles were all over the place with no coherent line of best fit

That's helpful dallen7908, but can I please have that in plain English, please? Approximately 7th grade English please.

Sup everyone! Sadly, I got suspended for fighting in the elementary school thread. Bitchin Nachos threw a Fruit Punch Capri Sun at me when I told him we’re probably only getting 6, maybe 7 inches tops. Siiiiiiiix Seeeeeeven. I threw a bowl of queso and salsa at him in retaliation. It wasn’t pretty. 

TMIN biases are seen in the eastern U.S. with the operational ECMWF forecasts’ largest low biases occurring in DJF (between 1.6–2.7 °C). The low bias is exacerbated when snow is present and the boundary layer is stable. See Lopes et al. 2024. ECMWF newsletter (2018) - Increasing the physical realism of surface processes in a model to reduce systematic biases may increase the root-mean-square error (RMSE) because different kinds of errors may no longer partially cancel each other. For example, 2-metre temperature (T2m) is computed diagnostically in the IFS from the temperature at the lowest model level and the skin temperature. There is a limiter in the computation of T2m which becomes active in very stable, low wind situations, and which prevents the T2m from deviating too strongly from the temperature at the lowest model level. Removing this limiter would be physically desirable, but tests have shown that doing so in the current model setup increases the RMSE.

the Euro has little to no snowfall with a sounding like this leading up to the storm and blocking

if they get a spot in the Glover Park DC to Bethesda grocery corridor, they will have made it in the DMV

What about (apologies for asking) the NAM, CMC, Ukmet, icon?

Look at 500mb before you look at the surface. What happens at 500mb drives what happens at the surface. You want to see strong confluence in SE Canada if we’re getting a full phase to our west. We’re having a ton of Gulf moisture overrunning into the high pressure dome so the surface is definitely relevant here, but the 500mb confluence allows that high to be in place and to force a redevelopment to our south. And you also want to pay attention to the 700/850mb low tracks, if they stay intact and track to our NW that means we have strong southerly flow from the Gulf at those levels and they will warm. But the big initial overrunning surge can mean a ton of snow falls before that warm air gets too potent at 750-800mb and whatever sleet just hardens up the snow pack into cement once it freezes up. I’ll gladly take 10 or 12” of mixed snow and sleet that freezes into cement.

From the source:

Yes with videos of broken accordions smashed over sledding trails

February 94 as well.

Port Jeff Station got smoked. My favorite storm besides ‘96. .

I just work in that area, reside in Dillsburg. Would definitely be nice to meet up if we get this storm, as I am sure to be refueling the plow truck and diesel cans for the skid steer. Cheers to a hopefully historic storm!