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  2. olafminesaw
    Yep. The Euro AI has been on it for the past couple days with the southern cutoff as per usual
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Moving a little more exponential the last few days Subsurface looks really healthy right now Let's see if the seasonal decadal trend of a ridge in the Rockies/SW gets suppressed this July
  4. FPizz
    Of course for mine, it is Thursday at 4pm. Maybe it can work...
  5. King James
    South and east I think / hope Bloomington/ Watseka/ Rensselaer/Knox
  6. pen_artist
    Does anyone have any good examples of when the warm front has advanced far north in just a few hours i.e. low central IL to far N IL? It feels like more often than not models will suggest this can happen but often it just stalls or barely retreats north.
  7. A-L-E-K
    def looks like an event that could pay a visit the backyard of many of our regulars
  8. mappy
    Thank you! I saw in the article they were still assessing in York County, I’ll be curious what they say for that assessment
  9. Typhoon Tip
    Seemin' like y'all tryin to will a super phat dope ass nuclear nino
  10. Chicago916
    SREF is a garbage model, but a noticable bump Northeast in CAPE at 15z and overall trend, so could see NAM show a little better overlap of instability and shear north. Still going to be a Nowcast tomorrow morning to see how fast the morning storms clear out.
  11. KeenerWx
    Maybe can score a short “chase” again.
  12. A-L-E-K
    RIP king james
  13. wncsnow
    We are still in a dry pattern
  14. wncsnow
    System is trending south. Looks like piedmont areas get little to nothing once again. We are hanging on by a thread here in the foothills thanks to recent rain but the water table is still quite low.
  15. King James
    Rensselaer would be a good spot to sit and wait IMO
  16. Today
  17. Itstrainingtime
    I wanted to make sure that you saw this: (same cell you were watching in York County) https://www.wgal.com/article/pa-ef-1-tornado-confirmed-lancaster-county-nws/71603879
  18. Typhoon Tip
    Drive 12 hours in any direction on land and you're still 90 or better
  19. Typhoon Tip
  20. 87storms
    Is that the MD heights trail? If so, did you park on the Va side and have to schlep over to the trailhead? I used to be able to park on the Md side in little nooks when I had my Jeep, but last time I went they had that general area closed off for parking.
  21. Cyclone-68
    The AFD for Chicago is pretty ominous for tomorrow: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOT&issuedby=LOT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
  22. Kmlwx
    12z CIPS guidance is a bit more enthusiastic. One analog that has been persistently showing up in some of the domains on CIPS is 6/21/21
  23. andyhb
    That was a different (I believe 4 hour) product than the 24-hour aggregate being shared widely.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    It's a damn shame the Big Boy steam engine isn't coming back west through Harpers Ferry. That would've been an EPIC shot coming out of the tunnel and going over the Potomac.
  25. CoastalWx
    Thursday looks like clouds and limited CAPE. But wind fields are impressive. Lets enjoy wasted kinematics.
  26. weatherwiz
    Screwed up earlier...I think I said uncapped Thursday but in fact, we may end up capped given how warm it is aloft. Best chance for anything during the afternoon may be the northern Hudson Valley actually into NNE where the forcing will be stronger and mlvl temps a bit cooler
  27. A-L-E-K
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