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  2. GaWx
    Indeed, the Euro’s June prog has the strongest (“monster” as you said) on record. And I agree it’s looking E based. But it’s not currently looking nearly as E based as 97-8 based on peak fall/winter differences between 1+2 and 3.4/4 per the latest Euro. And it’s not even looking as E based as 1982-3 per these same differences.
  3. LoboLeader1
    Currently 90F here, after an overnite low of 59F.
  4. weatherwiz
    That supercell from Albany to New Haven still has to be one of the most classic left moving supercells on record
  5. Brian D
    70 midday with low 60's dew. Feels good. A little rain has helped with RH levels.
  6. SomeguyfromTakomaPark
    Looks like the humidity arrives next week and will be sticking around
  7. vortex95
    July 10, 1989, virtually no sun in SNE after late morning from a thick high OVC. Didn't matter. BDL went from 68 to 86 no problem and a 10 deg DP rise into the 70s almost all on advection once the warm front passed. A kiddie Scott had no idea a spinner would occur in Brockton that day!
  8. buckeye
    back at ya, sometimes i miss the old days when subs based on geography weren't a thing. ...sometimes
  9. vortex95
    Scott shying away from his winter weenie passion?
  10. ineedsnow
    12z GFS floods
  11. donsutherland1
    Yes. It's looking like a monster east-based El Niño event.
  12. WX-PA
    Not bad but that storm track could mean lots of rain..doubt there is much cold air with the Super Nino
  13. Today
  14. weatherwiz
    Agree with this 100%. When I did my presentation at the TriState Weather Conference back in 2022 I think it was on the November 13, 2021 tornadoes I mentioned having the higher dews advecting in ahead of the storms likely played a factor in not only destabilizing but because of the advection, the destabilizing was occurring more rapidly which can enhance updraft strength. One thing I'm also noticing too about tomorrow is a trend towards steeper mid-level lapse rates.
  15. CoastalWx
    I think the only thing concerning to me is cloud cover. If that keeps temps down several degrees then expect less coverage. Otherwise, instability is modest….but lots of things advect in late day like higher 925-850theta-e, 500 PVA and falling temps, some better lapse rates etc. I like when things advect in vs already being in place. I think it helps destabilize. Just need to watch cloud cover.
  16. FPizz
    Same for all the X posts that were wrong. You better go tell everyone!
  17. weatherwiz
    I wonder if we'll see a 30% wind area added in E NY into NW MA/SW VT. 12z bufkit soundings within this corridor look solid for wind potential with inverted V profiles and steep llvl lapse rates. One concern I have is potential for too much dry air in the mid-levels which may be a reason why CAMs aren't widespread with activity.
  18. Brewbeer
    still haven't installed, these past few nights have been gloriously cool and perfect for sleeping.
  19. Brewbeer
    hope we get a good soaker tomorrow or the lawns will be crying for wawa
  20. snowman19
  21. SnowGoose69
    There is no question there is some type of correlation too, at least for places like AL/GA/MS/SC for the frequency to be higher during the cold AMO periods. That does not seem to be as much a factor for TN/NC/AR/OK/TX. But there is a higher peak, even in El Nino winters for those other 4 states in the 70s/80s and even during the more neutral or weaker warmer AMO period of the 40s/50s. I don't know if that is purely that colder outbreaks are more common then or perhaps/phasing amplified systems that cut north of them are less likely.
  22. forkyfork
    i've skimmed through the first 10ish pages of this thread and a lot of you should be embarrassed
  23. Typhoon Tip
    it matters when deniers are using 100ths of a decimal to make dullard points
  24. HoarfrostHubb
    Should I uninstall? I figure if I was supposed to install in March or something, that woud make sense
  25. GaWx
    Agreed. I didn’t say 26-7 wasn’t looking E based. I’m saying it doesn’t look as E based as 1982-3 and not anywhere close to (not even in the ballpark) as E based as 1997-8. You posted earlier today this: “Not only does it show the strongest El Niño in history, it shows it being severely east-based/East Pacific like 1997 was.” This (“severely east-based/EP like 1997”) is not true when you compare the regions, which is how E based/C based/Modoki are defined.
  26. snowman19
    It’s still going to be east-based Edit: @GaWx By “severely” I mean warmest anomalies centered in region 1+2
  27. GaWx
    But it’s less E based than 82-3 and much less E based than 97-8 as I just showed. Since you’ve been emphasizing how much E based 26-7 is looking, what do you think about this?
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