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Followup: -Fairbanks ended up with its coldest DJFM on record with it at -13.4, colder than the previous coldest of -13.0, set in 1965-6. -Fairbanks had its coldest March on record by a large margin, -9.0F. The prior coldest was -6.6F, set in 1959! -Anchorage had its coldest March on record with +13.4F. The prior coldest was +14.0, set in 1959. Fairbanks data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=afg Anchorage data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=afc
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Jns2183 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Thank you. I have to fix the stuff on the RSI page to actually show all records I have. I downloaded our top 10 storms from dive in CSV format but git hub co-pilot wanted to just keep the 4 station theme going and I was in no mood to fix after 5 hours at 1:30am. Eventually I'll try to get all the storms I can between RSI and Cocorahs. All accumulation I have are from kmdt for most part due to them actually keeping track of snow there. Small airports don't really have a point person for that. Other than that I downloaded every single hourly and daily record I could from those 4 sites over the years. 500mb of csv files, thank God for paraquet formats. Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk -
2026-2027 El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
WTF.....going to refrain from anything that could be conceived as political discourse, but I have my opinions as to whom the ire should be directed. -
2026-2027 El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Correct, nothing publicly available as far as I know -
29 years ago today. I posted these updated maps a couple months ago when we were discussing this storm a lot. Here's the link to all the maps and other images related to the storm. Also have a few radar animations https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/apr-1-1997
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Ahh…good point. Forgot about the April fools thing today.
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2026-2027 El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I have noticed....so we don't have means to plot H5 beyond March 17, 2026 for now? -
Not a thing to worry about…take it to the bank.
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70 here
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3/31-4/1/97
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Itstrainingtime replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Holy cow, this is amazing! Thank you! This is a tremendous reference and just fun to read as well. -
2026-2027 El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The new Conventional Observation Reanalysis that’s supposed to replace it only has the raw data available (https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/core/) which is annoying since I haven’t found any custom built code that plots it yet -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Jns2183 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I finally finished cateloging all winter storms greater than 3" since 2000 till end of 2025 77 storms A bunch of other winter stuff is there too. I think it's a good start https://jns182wx.github.io/winter-weather/ Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk -
So overnight I kept getting push notifications from Carrot weather and The Weather Network that heavy rain was starting soon. Checked that I had the right location set on both as I have many saved locations with push notifications.
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2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Retrobuc replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Yea, if you lived there during that storm, it was a hurricane. I dont care what the professionals refer to it as. -
There we go ... just busted 13 F in the last 25 minutes here.
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2026-2027 El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Where are we going for daily H5 charts now that this site is no longer updating? https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/ This site is fine for temps and precip. https://prism.oregonstate.edu/comparisons/anomalies.php -
Yeah I liked the old format much better-was more in depth-this version is "dumbed down"
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Probably historic charts intended as an April's Fool's homeage.
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SLGT risk for the region on 13z OTLK from SPC... 0/5/15
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1. The Euro did well with ONI in 2023, one of their best performances. But they also really did have a notable warm bias as was repeatedly shown with actual verifications vs progs over a near 20 year period, a large sample size. I spent lots of time researching and then showing this. A bias of any kind doesn’t at all mean that in a minority of cases verifications can’t be good. You know that. Keep in mind the very big too warm misses of 2012, 2014, and 2017 busts, for example. In all 3 cases a moderate El Niño was predicted repeatedly as I just posted. And the Euro has never been too cold by a significant degree. The one or two too cold misses were tiny in size. 2. The Euro when averaged out in only actual El Niño seasons had a smaller warm bias than for other seasons, which I’ve also pointed out. However, it still had a small warm bias even for those with some big too warm misses even during Nino seasons. 3. Furthermore, RONI of that season peaked at only high end moderate/low end strong as the Euro doesn’t predict RONI. Currently, RONI is ~0.5C cooler than ONI. 4. Let’s see what actually happens. It could of course end up very strong/super even for RONI as I’m open too all possibilities. It’s way too early for high confidence in any strength. That’s my main point. But remember to subtract ~0.5C for the best RONI prog.
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As I take a hit off my coffee every morning, I keep hoping the modeling cinemas I'm about to let roll will at last depict a big correction ridge bloomin' over east/mid latitude continent. Day after day after day ... Nope. There's some semblance in the 500 mb ( Euro op) for ridging to roll back up next week, but I can tell without looking, day after day after day... once again, it stops short of what I had in mind. So...then I go look at the sfc evolution for those 500 mb frames and yep ... piece of shit over the top high pressure driving in a BD butt bang, if not an outright cold front that seemingly shouldn't be be so aggressively slicing into the warm heights. Clearly doing so because the Euro model was a corroborative engineering effort between Indeedsnow and NY Metro law enforcement - I don't wish CC upon the world. But it is unfortunately for the world, real. Seeing as that is the case, and we're pretty well solidly fucked to stop it - incredulously so ... - we may as well find some way to enjoy what time remaining in our species MAGAdian-Darwinian cliff rush we have before it all starts going over the edge. We could at least wallow in our crapulence for creating a global temperature curve whence relative to date, the world is currently at a historic high ... by making it actually fucking warm here... and not everywhere else! And no ... some random 75 F day here or there doesn't count.
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2026-2027 El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I remember that well. Everyone thought the EURO was being way too aggressive and had a bad warm bias -
I'll ask this question in here, forgive me if it's been discussed already. The new forecast discussion changes that the nws implemented a little while ago with the key messages format... anymore else hate it? The forecast covers the next seven days, if nothing really important is going on the discussion could ignore half or more of the period. Also it seems impossible to determine if it's been updated even if the timestamp has changed. It leaves more questions than provides answers .
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