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Gfs looks great. HRRR also.

If this couples with the troposphere, we have issues next month. The SPV is about to strengthen rapidly, become quite strong, consolidate and move up over the pole. We haven’t had coupling so far and we didn’t last winter, but that doesn’t mean it can’t change. Different QBO evolution this year. This is something to watch very closely

Merry Christmas to you. Yea all over the place. Bottom of trough weakens boom

Merry Christmas! As usual, will become a nowcast event.

Euro with ratios ! We got Nam'ed big time, GFS back south. Big camp splits. Who knows?

Thunder woke me up this morning in WV…

06z GFS not going for the north trend and looks reasonably similar to previous GFS runs.

Mt holly is going to bust badly if they dont start following the modelling

We could become roommates.

Well now here it comes on the 00z 12/25 EPS. Pacific jet extends, wave breaks that semi-permanent pacific block, +PNA setting up. Merry Christmas

I hope not for your sake as well.

When I’m your age i hope i don’t get up this early.

And a Merry Christmas to you!

Yeah looks like a big sleeter south of NYC. A few more nudges north (not even including the storm will probably be under modeled as to the northern extent of the sleet because this is a SWFE yet) and sleet will probably be quite prevalent in NYC. I’d cut the totals from CNJ on south in half.

A very good article on Dr. Frank, in case you didn't see it. https://www.khou.com/article/news/local/dr-neil-frank-dies/285-26cc29fe-18ee-4e47-bdf3-5039367c021a

The NWS offices in Philly and NYC kind of punted, lol, keeping all of the watches up and not reducing snowfall forecasts much in the updated map vs. yesterday afternoon's map, other than trimming back a bit near 276/195 and in EPA and on LI, although their discussion talks about reduced snowfall due to more sleet in the W/SW counties that have watches and due to more rain possible for the SNJ counties that have watches. Hard to blame them as there's still almost 36 hours before the event starts and this way they don't have to change twice.

Come on. It's against forum rules to quote anything Mr. G. says.

6z NAM is still dogwater. On my phone at work. Otherwise I’d post the images.

EPS ensemble snow mean is the worst it’s been all year

Brutal

Snowing here. Merry Christmas!

Mr G and a few others on Twitter. Temps are below freezing

No warnings ?

WOUDK probably be a safe bet to go with advisories for NYC on south for 3-6” of wet snow and sleet, and then warnings to the north and west for 6-8”. These bands usually get further north than expected anyway, just like the mix line does. I think Mount Holly will have to reduce totals for their area. I don’t see how Philly can get 5+” with all models showing a mainly sleet storm for them now