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Yep, the BoM monthly relative peak actually rose ~0.1 over the last month to ~+3.7, very much unlike the drop of 0.5 of the CFSv2 RONI trimonthly peak. Also, it unlike most others keeps it almost that high in Dec. I expect BoM will bust significantly too warm for this progged relative monthly peak of +3.7 like it did in 2023, when it was the warmest and verified way too warm. Also, note that every month since April has busted significantly too warm. One can even see that for Aug by comparing your two graphs: the Aug 8th run had Aug way up at +2.7. The Sep 5th run lowered it down to +2.35. (I believe that the BoM uses a different dataset anomaly that makes it warmer than NOAA as you probably realize. I think it uses the warmer CRW as a base at least to an extent. That only adds to confusion.) The BoM had a whopping +2.9 for its peak forecast in its Sept run!

Yea, the EURO was better...but I'm willing to bet that the CANSIPS and JAMSTEC have missed by more than the CFS.

Mid 80s today and tomorrow......that's it.

Couldn’t agree more. We will have our chances.

85F/DP 69F at 12:30pm

66 degrees at noon. hell of a way to run a TORCH!

Bom weekly data runs hotter than other agencies so you gotta compare apples to apples. The latest forecast compared to the one from just under a month ago:

Astra did a really good job.

Its also mostly just the cfs. The 3.4 ONI on the ecmwf plumes is very similar from August to September with a peak around 4C. The CCSC/IRI plumes average went up from the July 20 to the August 19 forecast. The early September BOM forecast had a similar peak to the early August one.

MORE damned heat and 75 dews next week?! Are you kidding me?! FFS.

6z euro for tomorrows rain: >0.75” 12z NAM nest for tomorrow: 0.00”

The MEI v2 was just released for JA: +2.5 vs +2.4 for JJ. That’s the 2nd bimonthly in a row at a record high for the bimonth (back to 1979). The record high for any bimonth is +2.9. Here’s the rundown for JAs of +0.5+: 2026: +2.5 1997: +2.3 2015: +2.0 1982: +1.9 1987: +1.5 2002: +1.0 1986: +1.0 1994: +0.9 2004: +0.8 2009: +0.6 2006: +0.6 1993: +0.6 2023: +0.5 2018: +0.5 1979: +0.5

Where's all the heat you said was coming to to the area? El Nino? EL BUSTO!

Yea, save the precip regression for when it matters. I understand it's going to be warm...got it, but you def. want to swing the chamber as many times as possible if temps are an issue.

Cooler fall weather looks like its coming after mid-month. Average highs still firmly in the 70s though, dont expect anything too cool. Just fresh air.

what an awful way to cast something as important as a vote, especially when the alternatives were better prepared, better qualified and had better policy positions that would have helped everyday Americans a whole lot more than "Gulf of America" and "World Liberty Financial"

I drive by the Cambridge? Reservoir off of 95 quite often. I can’t believe how low it is. You can walk across parts of it. Water is confined to the middle. Can’t be good

Not the whole winter. Maybe December.

Meanwhile, for those planning on a fishing trip off Japan, PDO up to -.73 as of yesterday.

Temps still in the upper 80's . Looks like the Eagles home opener is gonna be a little wet. It's still Summer Damnit! I'm not leaving the Summer thread yet!

Paul, your site functionality is impressive. This must have taken a lot of work to get it all running, even with AI writing code. TBH, though, we are still not agreeing on the use of raw weather data to develop climate trends, although at really large scales there is little difference between the raw and processed. --Mike

FYP

That season may represent a decent proxy for what next year would look like with a weak El Nino.