All Activity

Best track is now 35 kts and upgraded to TS Isaias for the next advisory package.

Big cooldown coming next week, most models have mountain snow and the occasional run has it down to Denver. Snow or not, 40s and 50s will feel very nice after this stretch of unseasonably warm weather.

0Z Euro has landfall near Biloxi ~8AM CDT Sat at 986 mb.

00z HAFS suites are significantly stronger versus 18z. Intensification is faster, with a major hurricane down into the 940s passing east of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Both still show disruption from increasing shear by landfall, but obviously, this would be troubling for surge impacts along the Mississippi, Alabama, and western Panhandle coastline.

The 0Z UKMET landfalls at Mobile at 987 mb ~4AM CDT Sat, which is weaker than its lowest SLP of 978 mb 12 hours earlier in the N Gulf. The center then moves N over W AL before turning left into EC MS and then NE MS. Beneficial rains fall over much of the SE.

Already down to 43. Probably gonna hit 38 here tonight.

interesting setup next Tuesday on GFS

With the new year two months away... Does someone take up the mantle in his honor for the Roger Smith Memorial Forecast Challenge?... (And may he Rest in Peace) Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

already 36° so frost seems imminent in the morning.

Intense bursting of convection now over the NHC's 10PM CDT advisory position:

Every guy coming out of the Brewers' bullpen throws like 500 mph. Jesus.

Icon brings the rain in by midday Sunday. The gfs even earlier. In fact its over by midnight

Began as a depression in the E-pac that dissipated, then made a sudden comeback and instantly began threatening the Big Island almost a week later

recent mountain web cams

The VERY definition of a small window! I was spot on with this part of the peak season forecast.

strange Hurricane Nolo

Watch out Gulf Coast! Another tropical system will impact somewhere between New Orleans and Pensacola on Oct 10 with 7 to 12 inches of rain! Welcome to a strong Nino! It's going to be heavy rain after heavy rain after heavy rain after heavy rain after heavy rain after heavy rain after heavy rain in the Southeast for at least the next 8 months. Soils will become hypersaturated then floods will occur and not have time to recede. Entire neighborhoods will be inundated and stay that way well into 2027. The Southeast is going to be particularly hard-hit by way too much rain and flooding will persist.

44/39

I wish it was the Tigers...but enjoy!!!

Back on track...remnant rain looking like a high likelihood now for the region as this rounds the eastward shifting high. Perhaps, there may be a severe risk too if this tracks to the west?

An ancient Chinese curse once said "May you live in interesting times."

Oh for sure. This is something a shocking number of people cant seem to grasp- that a mild seasonal mean doesnt mean no cold blasts or below avg days, it just means fewer.