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Absolutely....basically what I am intimating.

The back of summer may be broken! Nice morning here 63 now and the windows are open for a change.

We will see. I’ll hold off until September because that’s when I would expect to start seeing some semblance of an Aleutian low.

Buy.

CFS has a nice “back loaded idea” with the Canadian block becoming a -NAO later in the season. Take it with a grain of salt. IF (big if) you’re going to get anything out of this season, this would be the way to do it.

ZERO so far in South CLT. Storms to the north, storms to the south. but NOTHING just north of the NC/SC line in Meck. lol

While many people are enjoying the recent stretch of cooler temperatures and low humidity, this weather pattern is becoming increasingly concerning for farmers and water resources throughout the Lehigh Valley. Lehigh County is now officially under a Pennsylvania DEP Drought Warning, reflecting the continued deterioration of soil moisture, groundwater supplies, and streamflows. Residents are being asked to voluntarily conserve water as the drought continues to worsen. The comfortable weather is actually working against agriculture. Lower humidity, cool nights, breezy afternoons, and the lack of widespread soaking rains continue to dry out already stressed soils. Corn, soybeans, hay, vegetables, orchards, and pasturelands are all feeling the effects, and each rain-free day adds more stress to this year's crops. Lehigh County already has thousands of acres of corn, soybeans, and hay currently experiencing drought conditions. Another concern has been the apparent pattern over the past three weeks where numerous showers and thunderstorms have weakened, split apart, or tracked around portions of the Lehigh Valley, leaving many locations with little or no meaningful rainfall while surrounding areas received much heavier amounts. Whether you call it the local "donut hole" or simply an unfortunate weather pattern, the result has been the same—many farms have missed the widespread soaking rains desperately needed to recharge soil moisture. Perhaps most concerning, there are currently no tropical systems or significant tropical moisture plumes on the immediate horizon that appear capable of delivering the widespread one- to three-inch rainfall that would substantially improve drought conditions. Many people are enjoying this beautiful summer weather today, but if this dry pattern continues into August, opinions will likely change quickly. Brown lawns, stressed crops, falling stream levels, declining groundwater supplies, and increasing wildfire concerns could become the story of the summer. The Lehigh Valley doesn't need another picture-perfect day—it needs several widespread soaking rains.

48 here this morning.

Modern climate seems to have more of a disconnect between the mid latitudes and tropics, which would obviously impact the summer more, when the signals are weaker at baseline....perhaps this will change as we get into the fall given the magnitude of ENSO.

our boy josh for sure

yeah this is top tier comfort weather office normies loving it

my understanding of the western water situation and the colorado river, is that it's a long slow release from heavy winter snowmelt or northing. At best, a heavy monsoon season might provide some local relief to immediate fire susceptibility but it won't do anything for the river/water scarcity issue and the lightning will certainly start new fires considering the degraded state of the forests out there thanks to the beetles and successive mega droughts

MJO was rather diffuse for the most part in July 1991, but notice the only appreciable amplitude was in the MC on the 7th-8th (phase 4) and...19th-22nd (phase 7) https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt This July, we are also getting huge amplitude in phase 8, but doesn't seem to matter.

The current -SOI streak has now surpassed the 72 day streak of 1997 and is now at 74 days. Only 1998’s 100 days has been longer as far back as daily records go at Long-Paddock: https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

73 yesterday. Mid 50s this morning. Excellent break from the heat. Can’t beat sleeping with the windows open.

Another -PDO season.

Yea, all I need to see. This is what ultimately matters, so IMHO, you (collective) can shove all of the OLR, VP and MJO plots......we are having a cool ENSO July. Not what I want, but it is what it is.

00z MAV for tomorrow morn

Beautiful morning out. On ffx county parkway where it overpasses 50 could finally see past the blue ridge way to the distant mountains. Otherwise, mid 60s and low humidity means I get to wear a jacket today to coach!

mega nino, everyone should get ready

Noticed you didn’t post this . Wonder why

Yes, Phoenixville had a 4 pm time of observation:

Min 52.0° Maybe cooler tonight

Coldest of our lifetime according to some