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Except for the lack of rain, today was perfect early fall wx - sun, 70, light breezes.

Leaves are already falling up here because it's been so dry.

Likely because the cold El Niño events of the late 70's freaked them out.

Yea, just depends on the precise SST measurement and calculation are, but I wish they could centralize it. Regardless, neutral-negative now.

https://satellitewx.com/ocean?p=ssta&d=2026-09-09&dom=Global&v=r,-160.000,0.000,387.600 Thanks to @BlizzardWx...my new home site.

lobster and cracked crab for everyone

Historically, strong El Nino's are inclined to turn wet during the fall and they don't always telegraph the turn. If this fall indeed turns wet, late September can certainly be a turning point. NOAA may or may not signal that turn. If CPC predictions had been correct for the past 6 months, my soil would not be parched now.

Looking at this satellite pic would you ever think we were at the peak of hurricane season? Still think we need to be somewhat wary of the Gulf and southwest Atlantic before the season ends. If anything noteworthy is going to happen it will come from the CAG with a move north into the Gulf or southwest Atlantic. Could also have some home grown system in either of those places. MDR is done for this year. We'll have to see how many more days we can go without a hurricane because as of today we broke the record for latest in the season without one. Should easily be able to tack on another 7 days I think which is pretty amazing.

2001

12z GFS back to busting the drought again

79 / 55 clearing out nicely

yep that was the start of the very dry and warm 01-02 non winter

No surprise what is going on around Tallahassee right now: Plenty of torrential rain! The Southeast: One of the WORST places to be in a super el nino if you do not like major flooding and your beloved neighborhood written off. The PLUME will be residing directly over the Southeast. If you do not like flooding, get out NOW, while you still can. Head for Austin Texas. We won't have to worry about that nonsense over here. We are well west of the Nino's influences and hundreds of miles safely west of the Plume.

75 part was pretty close. But the f-ing dew points won’t drop. Gonna have 60s dews for Xmas.

My mistake. You are correct I didn't remember the front. I thought it was mostly the subsidence around Erin that gave us the clear skies. I had forgotten how dry and crisp the airmass was that day. If it was just subsidence it would have been more humid and warmer. Cold front clearly the reason for the sunny, deep blue skies. I do remember in the weeks following 9/11 it was so very dry with minimal rain to cleanse the dust and toxins out of the air and quell the smoke from ground zero.

I would get Rick Dempsey to sign a tarp for her. Might as well remind her of the good times and the last one she saw. Plus, he was awesome as that team was just fun.

You're not fooling anyone.

Hrrr would probably flood south of pike even into mass. I dunno.

Yeah that’s a better look.

And today we tied the record for the longest the season has gone without a Hurricane in the Atlantic basin. That record should be broken tomorrow and extended quite a ways into the future

I’m thinking the cpc drought holding pattern forecast may be wrong.

May be in a heat pocket but we’ve surged to 98.7 at my house currently. Seems above most other one