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I wish we could get this evolution during the winter.

I'd love to get some weak residual +AAM for next winter....

Yea, El Nino is a beast in the tropics, but note the one significant pocket of -AAM on the globe happens to be right at our latitude, which make sense given the sensible disconnect with past major El Nino events. I appreciate the magnitude of the event, but just think it's a bit disingenuous to comment on how well coupled the El Nino is without mentioning that, since we all live within that latitudinal envelop.

Picked up 2.41 with last nights storms. Still raining this morning with more on the way it looks like.

Like you said, forget -NAO in the seasonal mean like guidance tries to do...no argument there....but I do think it lends support to the notion of some second half interludes of -NAO.

Up to .76 since yesterday. Radar not looking to impressive atm. Hopefully it's a nice rainy fall day.

.95 yesterday afternoon and overnight.

1.08” yesterday and 0.77” today

Up to 1.20” in DC since yesterday.

.73 rain overnight. 7.35 for the month of September so far.

Look at the February stats. They’ve been as bad as December.

0.02" overnight. 0.07" total. Not seeing how this gets anywhere close to forecast for the mid Eastern Shore.

The Drought Continues unabated......................................... 14 sprinkles overnight.

Hopefully the grid collapses . We need this

Euro is alone and wrong

what a beast

How did these pre-winter models do last winter?

Nino 3 at +3.878 is currently showing the most anomalous warmth relative to all-time records for any time of year. The Euro and CFS both have the Nino 3 peak in December well above the previous 1997 and 1982 records. There is so much accumulated warmth on the long range CFS, that it’s showing El Niño conditions lingering into next June. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ 16SEP2026 25.3 4.6 28.6 3.8 29.6 3.0 29.6 1.0 26NOV1997 25.8 3.7 28.4 3.3 28.9 2.2 29.3 0.7 29DEC1982 26.1 2.7 28.5 3.2 29.1 2.6 28.8 0.4

RGEM looks similar. Look at how much slower the 0z Euro was compared to yesterday. I'm waiting a bit to lock. maybe like 12Z or 0z tonight

Not off to a good start. NWS forecast for "a half to three quarters of an inch" overnight - actually still completely dry. Month to date precip? 0.3".

Hopefully utility companies getting some help on standby

.09 yesterday, .33 so far today. hoping the gfs is right and keeps the coastal further out to sea for the weekend.

57 degrees this morning. The rain kind of done it disappearing act last night…Again .14” of rain over night definitely an underachieving storm from what they originally was predicting.